Monday, August 25, 2008

Ten Reasons McCain Will Pick Romney as VP

1. He is not a Senator.
2. He is a governor and someone who has actually led something - Massachussets and the Winter Olympics
3. He knows the economics better than McCain and that’s what people are talking about.
4. He will be a good counter to Biden on the attack front.
5. He has deep ties to Michigan via his dad. No Michigan no McCain Presidency.
6. He is younger and energetic but not too young that it makes McCain look older than he is.
7. He will energise the Conservative base.
8. He is a proven money raiser.
9. He is an attack dog and can go after Obama leaving McCain to take the high road.
10. Romney knows how to use the internet.

Now, don't get me wrong. Romney is everything I hate about a politician. He's an identikit candidate, he knows which buttons to press and when to press them. Back in January I wrote:
I would never support Romney in a month of Sundays, Mondays or Tuesdays. His policy platform seems to change by the minute and is too much of an identikit candidate for my liking. If the West Wing were casting for an actor to play the American President he'd be perfect. But there's something about him that just doesn't ring true.So on the Republican side I will support John McCain, albeit incredibly reluctantly. I just don't see the ideas, the optimism, the can-do attitude that I think such a candidate needs. But I'll take him over Romney.

But I still think McCain will go for Romney. My second bet is Charlie Crist, governor of Florida - although whether he has got through the vetting process is a matter for conjecture.


Anonymous said...

I suspect you might be right, Iain - though I have always though McCain would reward personal loyalty first and give it to Tim Pawlenty.

Mike Smithson has written a piece on female candidates (by my count there are only 13 even possible) - if not Romney, then Kay Bailey Hutchinson?

Anonymous said...

Why wouldn't Charlie Crist get through the vetting process?

Tell us more

Anonymous said...

I said Crist ages ago, but there's too many questions about Crist that the right wing won't stand for.

Romney is interesting, because it's a filip to Obama as well - they will be able to roll out the recent primary campaign attacks by Romney on McCain, embarrassing stuff.

I still got a feeling he might roll out Petraeus.

Anonymous said...

I see your points, but he's a Mormon, and I can't help but feel that might hurt McCain, because he's not all that hot with evangelicals in the first place.

Anonymous said...

8. Proven money raiser? I thought he just used lots of his own (considerable) wealth because he wasn't getting many donations.

Imposs1904 said...

"7. He will energise the Conservative base."

If, by the 'Conservative base', you mean the religious right within the Republican Party, I don't think properly you're taking into account the serious issue that many of them have with Romney being a Mormon.

Strange as it seems to us non-religious types, many fundamental Christians don't consider Mormons proper Christians.

Anonymous said...

McCain is an atheist. I wish him all the best. Romney not only believes in invisible yellow kangaroos dwelling in the sky but he - or his ancestors did and he did not change it - follows one of the worst obviously made up cults possible.

Come to think of it I have just changed my mind mid-writing - we are talking America. Go Romney. Get McCain in.

Anonymous said...

It won't be Romney - McCain quite obviously detests him and will not want to pave the way for him to be President.

I also think if McCain is sensible he will not have a young(ish) Veep as it risks them agitating to take over in 2012.

I think Lieberman is the man - after a week of the democrats tying McCain to Bush he'll want to make a massive statement. The fact that he is waiting until after the DNC also suggests his Veep pick is going to be a big story.

Anonymous said...

I'd add another one Iain that some people think maybe unimportant, though I personally think is a vote winner:

Romney is handsome and has charisma.

People, whether consciously or unconsciously, gravitate towards those characteristics in leaders.

Anonymous said...

Why bring up Romney's Mormonism?

Nobody ever mentions that harry reid is a Mormon, but then he's a lefty and therefore immune from personal insults - the use of such distasteful remarks being part of liberal strategy.

Sam B said...

Apologies for the length of the post, but... Ten reasons Romney will not be McCain's Running Mate:

1) Chooing the billionaire Romney exposes McCain to much more "7 Houses John" attacks by the Democrats.

2) Romney has never polled well among white working class voters, who seem to be the swing vote at this election.

3) Romney's "strength" in Michigan is based only on his primary victory, which is totally unreflective of his actual electoral appeal there.

4) Whatever about McCain's personal feelings abour Romney, his staff, up to the highest levels of seniority, actively dislike Romney.

5) Choosing Romney would prevent Republicans from running effective anti-Obama ads using Biden quotations: many more exist of Romney attacking McCain.

6) Romney does not appeal strongly to the base, particularly social conservatives who are skeptical of his abortion turnaround.

7) The VP Debate doesn't affect voting intentions – witness Lloyd Bentsen's smackdown of Dan Quayle ("Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy") which didn't affect the opinion polls at all.

8) McCain is known to prefer a "transitional" VP choice, handing the baton to the next generation – Romney certainly isn't that!

9) Romney's record as Massachusetts Governor is patchy, at best, and being only one 4-year term (he did not run for re-election) it will make it awkward to attack Obama for 'only' having 4 years in the Senate.

10) Whatever money Romney raises will have to be spent by the end of the GOP convention because of McCain's acceptance of public campaign financing. McCain had wanted to choose Romney, he would have done so months ago when the money would be useful.

Sam B said...

For the record, I think it will be Tim Pawlenty.

Anonymous said...

Sadly, thanks to the ways of American politics, McCain has to shore up his right-wing, rather than in any other country in the world his left. Hence why from purely political considerations Romney makes a better VP candidate than say Lieberman or Rice.

In any other situation it would be the other way round. Still, anything's a better choice than "We're all right!" Biden.

Anonymous said...

gordon-bennet, I think it was actually mostly fellow GOP conservatives who took Romney to task for his Mormonism.

A February 9-11 USA Today/Gallup poll that found that 75 percent of "liberal" respondents would be willing to vote for a Mormon for president, compared with 66 percent of "conservative" respondents.

John Trenchard said...

my bet is on Bobby Jindal.

that would checkmate the race card, and trump the Dems class warfare.

hes young, charismatic, and born of Indian subcontinent parents - THE perfect "American dream" success story.

Anonymous said...

Charlie Christ is gay and in the closet. There is no way that McCain would choose him.

Anonymous said...

He wont energise the conservative based.

He flipped and flopped on the abortion issue. Your either pro-life or pro-choice. You cant change from one to the other.

Yak40 said...

Sarah Palin would make it fun and she's got the right attitude when it comes to drilling etc as well.
She's outdoorsy as well, which is a change.

Jindal has insisted he's not interested and, in some ways, he's barely more qualified than the Sainted O.

Anonymous said...

Boris for VP!

" pong is coming home".

John Trenchard said...

just listening to Denis Prager (via KLUP News Talk) - Prager is guessing that Jindal might be the one. theres a lot of buzz about that guy in conservative circles across the pond.

live stream via here:

Anonymous said...

what is the best site to watch the convention on the web?

Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Dale,

Are you mad?

Are you aware that Mormons believe that the Israelites migrated to America in 600BC? Are you aware that they believe that Jesus himself paid them a visit to the New World?

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints believes the Book of Mormon is a unique and final revelation, yet (unlike the Bible) there is no historical evidence that anything contained therein actually ever happened.

While His Grace can understand those who have issues with Judaism, Christianity and Islam, those problems are as nothing when compared to the gulf that exists between Mormonism and the Enlightenment.

If Senator McCain picks Mitt Romney, there are very many Christians of all denominations in the USA who would prefer a pro-choice Catholic like Senator Biden.

Religion and politics - it is all very messy and murky indeed.

Iain Dale said...

His Grace has been uncharacteristically hasty in his post and clearly didnt read the last bit, where I made clear I couldn't stand Romney.

Anonymous said...

I'm not up to speed with all the players in the Republican Party, but the way McCain has been playing the Clinton card ("why didn't Obama consider her?" etc, the ad with the ex Clinton campaigner coming out for McCain), I think he'll pick a woman - it will drag half of Clinton's supporters to him

Anonymous said...

If he is smart he will pick a woman and Kay B-H is the obvious choice, but he will keep Condi Rice on as SoS and have people like Romney in the tent, pissing out furiously, all over the disaster that is Obamanomics!

Anonymous said...

Biden will eat Romney for breakfast. Mitt Romney has 'loser' written all over his face.

The USA already has one anti-intellectual president with George Bush. McCain is the same. The USA does NOT want another anti-intellectual President. No more Bush-McCain. Game over.

It's Obama '08.

Anonymous said...

the Winter Olympics?? hohohohohoho What a hoot... give me a break!

Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Dale,

With respect, His Grace was not hasty at all. He read your post in its entirety, and is fully aware of your aversion, even loathing of Senator Romney. His surprise is that you believe (even prophesy) that Senator McCain will choose him regardless (not of your loathing, but of the manifest shortcomings in Senator Romney's discernment).

Anonymous said...

McCain will pick Sarah Palin, I'm 99% sure of it.

Firstly she's a woman, so will attract the disenfranchised Hillary supporters. She's got an approval rate as Governer of Alaska in the 80s and 90s, and a good track record as Governer. She's pro-life. Photogenic. Down to earth. Young. She has a son about to ship off to Iraq, and another son with Downs Syndrome, so she'll easily counter the elitist, out of touch jabs directed at McCain.

She's such an obviously perfect choice, and will be such a boon to the McCain campaign.

Anonymous said...

His Grace should read this article, if he thinks the GOP would prefer a pro-choice candidate than a Mormon.

The interview linked indicates that the Southern Baptist Conference (the largest Protestant denomination in the USA) do not recognise Mormonism as a form of Christianity, but do not think that disbars Mitt Romney from being VP. Not do they have a problem with Eric Cantor who is Jewish.

American evangelicals are less theologically rigid than he may think - but they are unequivocal on abortion. For that reason, the interview states that either Lieberman or Tom Ridge are absolutely beyond the pale as VP (but not Cabinet posts).

To follow my coverage of Denver, come along to Polticalbetting (my Denver Diary via my name, or the main threads for comments)

Anonymous said...

I think it'll be Romney, too, Iain, for all the reasons you've named. I believe it SHOULD be Sarah Palin, but I would bet on Romney, contra my optimistic anonymous friend who's "99% sure" it'll be Palin (I see no evidence for her whatsoever). It won't be Jindal, as much as i like him as well: he's ruled himself out and is absolutely needed in Louisiana lest it fall into the hands of Democrat Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu, son of former New Orleans mayor Moon Landrieu, I could go on) and the state's old machine politics of corruption.

I'd add that the idea that Romney "ran" my home state of Massachusetts as Governor is pretty absurd: despite being the only place where the Governor still gets "Your Excellency," it's a pretty constitutionally weak office as governorships go, especially given an overwhelmingly Dem state legislature (oh, excuse me, "the Great and General Court of the Commonwealth").

I worked personally with Charlie Crist on legislation when he was AG and I was a staff attorney for the Florida House, and I like him a lot, but yeah, there's NO WAY he'll be VP. McCain's AG, possibly (though I'd rather see Giuliani in that spot), but more likely he'll serve two full terms as Governor and then spend the rest of his life in the US Senate.

Andy C, the US needs Gen. Petraeus exactly where he is right now as CINCCENT. President some day? I hope so and it wouldn't surprise me: he's the best mind to come out of West Point since at least Eisenhower.

"Romney is handsome and has charisma."

Only in the worst used-car-salesman kind of way.

Letters From A Tory said...

Biden was a fairly uninspiring appointment by Obama so I'd be interested to see whether McCain goes for a 'big gun' or chooses a more reserved running mate.

Anonymous said...

It's hard to credit that Christian and Jewish Americans would prefer someone publicly professing a religion - even a hocus pocus one like Mormonism - than an aetheist or agnostic, but I suppose it's possible. Like many Brits, I have little inkling what appeals to the US beyond a 50 mile band along each coast. But it would certainly not be a step forward towards connecting with the rest of the world.

From here, I agree that the smart move would look to be a woman. Even possibly Condi Rice although I appreciate that her connection with the present administration might be a "no no".

When we hear who it is we will either gasp in admiration at Iain Dale's sagacity or gasp in renewed astonishment that he should have suggested that McCain would be so daft.

Anonymous said...

It's hard to credit that Christian and Jewish Americans would prefer someone publicly professing a religion - even a hocus pocus one like Mormonism - than an aetheist or agnostic, but I suppose it's possible. Like many Brits, I have little inkling what appeals to the US beyond a 50 mile band along each coast. But it would certainly not be a step forward towards connecting with the rest of the world.

From here, I agree that the smart move would look to be a woman. Even possibly Condi Rice although I appreciate that her connection with the present administration might be a "no no".

When we hear who it is we will either gasp in admiration at Iain Dale's sagacity or gasp in renewed astonishment that he should have suggested that McCain would be so daft.

Anonymous said...

I don't care who McCain picks as long as he wipes the floor with Obamalamadingdong. I utterly detest him.

Condi might be a good pick, notwithstanding her present connections

Anonymous said...

I think it was the late lamented Gene McCarthy who said of Mitt Romney's father when he claimed he was brainwashed over Vietnam 'I don't think brainwashing was necessary. In the Governor's case a light rinse would do.' With his numerous flip flops, like father like son?

Dick the Prick said...

I thought Condi has ruled herself out of serving again - to be fair she must be knackered. She's still young too so she can afford a few years of backroom academia, or heaven forfend, a break to get her mojo back.

Anonymous said...

Iain, The Republican Party represents all that is currently wrong with the USA.

McCain would be as anti-intellectual a President as George Bush is. Romney is just a muppet and I'm sure that he has a few interesting skeletons in his closet..

Charlie Crist is apparently a total closet case - and his own political party thinks that homosexuals are evil. Go figure.

Iain, surely you must realise how daft and how out of date the Republican Party truly is?!

Religious freaks, war mongers, right wing loonies, rednecks, gaybashers, hypocrites, bigots... oh yuck.

We all know the world will be a better place with Obama as the next President. Why not just say it?

Obama '08

David Lindsay said...

If so, then the question to blue-collar Catholics and white Evangelicals is this: how many more times do the Republicans have to spit in your faces before you will come home to the Democratic Party, thus forcing it to be your home once again?

Re-register as Democrats and turn up at primaries or caucuses. How hard is that?

You don't like the Republicans. You don't really feel any affinity with them. And they despise you.

Well, try despising them back.

Anonymous said...

'No Michigan, no McCain presidency'. This isn't strictly true. It would, of course, help greatly to win it. But if McCain merely holds on to all the Bush states, or even all the Bush states except Iowa and New Mexico (probably the two states most likely to go over to Obama in November), he would be elected.

Anonymous said...

McCain won't hold on to the 'Bush' states. Bush has the lowest rating ever as President except for Richard Nixon.

The Republican Party are in decline. No more Bush/McCain.

Wait and see...

Anonymous said...

Hes the best man for the job. Hands down.

Anonymous said...

Here's an excellent Op-Ed that argues why McCain shouldn't pick Romney unless he wants to guarantee defeat.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm. Didn't see that one coming, did you Iain?

Anonymous said...

Come on Iain its one thing making predictions but '10 reasons'?!

I think Palin will be a disastrous choice, one he will very soon regret. She isn't known (therefore not popular or widely respected) and her strong conservatism rules out the chance of her winning Clinton votes.

I won't offer 10 Reasons (!!) but DISASTER is my prediction for Palin

Christopher said...

Good Predictions, but those may have worked earlier this summer, Romney didn't continue to be in the spotlight after the Primaries and basically dropped off the radar. I liked Romney and will vote for him anytime he's running again.

But choosing Romney for VP would not be adventageous as Palin is, Palin has a history of shaking up old-school politics and that is one of McCains biggest running points.

Romney will probably get a cabinet position, I think that would be a good place for him in this administration. Romney may never run for President again but he proved himself to me that he is on the side of the people and is able to make the right choices.