This may not come as a surprise but the minor party showing is also up 3% to 12%. At a time when the electorate is very volatile and there is huge dissatisfaction with the government there is always a temptation for people to look at the two main parties and say 'a plague on all your houses'.David Cameron has opened up a sizeable lead over Mr Brown as the best Prime Minister to handle the recession and to lead Britain forward after the next election. In November Mr Brown was ahead of Mr Cameron by 52 to 32 per cent as the right leader to deal with the British economy in recession. They were level pegging last month but Mr Cameron is ahead by 41 to 32 per cent.
Mr Cameron has widened his margin as the right leader to take Britain forward after the next election from 42 to 35 per cent in November, and 43 to 31 per cent in January, to 45 to 28 per cent now.
You will see this in spades at the Euro elections. It happened in 2004, when UKIP overtook the LibDems as the chief beneficiary of the so-called 'dustbin vote' and scored 16% despite virtually no presence in Scotland and Wales. I don't epect UKIP to match their 2004 performance in June, but I do expect the Greens to do much better. Not perhaps as well as their 15% showing in 1989, but I think they may creep into double figures.
21 comments:
Labour crash in the polls eh.....Music to my ears Iain...keep up the good work mits great for the morale..
Sweet.
28% would still vote Labour, 32% still think Gordon Brown is the right man to deal with the recession. Who are these people, surely there aren't that many whose jobs depend on Labour largesse...
I think a few tory voters are dismayed at Dave's shadow cabinet's refusal to work full time, a job that they are well paid to do. Especially one William Hague. Must say I am well disappointed, about time Cameron stamped his authority down.
Minor parties +3%?
I think we all know that's the BNP
yet no mention?
Brown's finished.
Cameroon's policies and delivery are like being licked by a small poodle that's been left out in the cold for too long.
I wonder how the BBC would handle a good showing by the BNP in June?
would they:
a. Just fade out Dimbleby and start showing re-runs of old episodes of Casualty
b.Call for a new election that excludes the BNP.
c.Call for an end to all elections where the candidates haven't been vetted by the BBC.
There is an interesting article in the current New Scientist, which suggests that humans may be more susceptible to a "herd mentality" than we may imagine.
Apparently we get a "dopamine kick" when we find that we are in agreement with others. The article opines:
"Once Obama's popularity reached a critical mass, his success may have been inevitable."
Maybe we are reaching a critical mass, where together we all agree that Brown is doing a terrible job and that his ejection is now "inevitable".
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126943.800-the-obama-factor-revealed.html
The big question is -
"How well will the LibDems do against Labour in traditional Labour areas".
If they do well and are seen as a positive vote instead of a wasted vote, then they could start taking seats from Labour in the general election.
I have money onm UKIP winning NO seats!
Where do they find all these morons that allegedly support Labour?
I believe that the UK political scene today resembles the banking/housing/asset market 18 months ago. There was a comfy consensus then that nothing would change, borrowing other peoples money was the only route to riches and you were mad not to believe in the "Great Moderation". The media least of all the questioned "The Great Miracle".
Today, the political consensus that globalisation is good, immigration better, 1 million/year+ immigration the very height of civilisation is about to be shown to be just as much bunkum.
No mainstream political party has questioned this "consensus". Worse they all said it was "obscene" to question it.
Over the next few months, there is a chance that the political parties, and the mainstream media will be swept away because of their staunch adherence to the second Great Consensus of truth, which will be shown to be nothing less than treason as the economy slips away.
Im getting used to the fact that in a few months one of MY MEP's is going to be Nick Griffen.
That is the single most depressing fact on my political radar at the moment
This poll does not exterminate the dreaded LibDem Norman Baker MP !
I think number ten has decided not to take any notice of the polls until next year. They hope they can save the world, then call a snap election and expect the electorate to be grateful!
I think the Tories will win the election with a landslide, even if the economy improves dramatically, Brown will be out like Churchill after the war.
I disagree UKIP won’t do well; they are bound to blame Europe for the downturn in the economy!
Peter said... “...they could start taking seats from Labour in the general election.”
I would have thought that simple electoral dynamics makes that highly probable. The other question for the Lib Dems is whether they can cling on to constituencies they have taken off the Tories. Some will, some won’t.
The well-known ability of Lib Dem MPs to garner a personal vote once their feet are under the table will no doubt have an effect. It’s something Iain Dale has had cause to rue.
How much of the West Country will return to the Tories? And my personal bet is that former MEP and leadership contender* Chris Huhne will be defeated in Eastleigh, Hants.
*I wonder how many Lib Dems wish Huhne rather than Clegg had been elected leader in that close internal election.
Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said... “Today, the political consensus... ...immigration better, 1 million/year+ immigration...”
Have I remembered wrong or isn’t there net emigration from the UK?
I’m only asking.
Minor reality check- Conservatives really should be doing even better.
Obviously the only real alternative, Labour has obviously messed up totally (hence under 30% natural "floor" vote), but too many still want to waste their votes instead of voting Conservative- we should be at or close to 50%.
JoeF said... “...we should be at or close to 50%.”
[Sings]
‘Oh Fatherland, Fatherland,
Show us the sign
Your children have waited to see.
The morning will come
When the world is mine.
Tomorrow belongs to me!’
I would be surprised, disappointed but mainly surprised, if the Greens do well. They are on the ropes in scotland where under the PR system they were doing well & with the globe not warming & the end of economic growth they advocated for so long not proving an unalloyed benefit I think the public will be fed up with them. With the amount of support they get from the BBC & establishment generally they can no longer look like a protest vote.
I certainly hope the BNP, as the less fascist & less destructive of the 2 do better.
neil craig said... “I certainly hope the BNP, as the less fascist...”
“Less fascist” - my arse.
My guess is that the smaller parties will improve their share of the vote before the elections. They can't afford to campaign much at the moment, but as the elections approach they will put their meagre resources to good effect.
So does anyone know how the BNP is faring?
I posted over at No Minister that the BNP does suffer a media blackout bar when they are taking the piss out of them.
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