Con 48% (+4)
Lab 28% (-2)
Lib 17% (-)
Mori often show a narrower Tory lead than other pollsters, so this is a noteworthy poll. It is also the third poll in two weeks, I think, which shows Labour on 28%. PoliticalBetting has some interesting analysis.
The MORI top-line numbers, of course, only include those 100% certain to vote and this tends to produce dramatic changes when things are going very bad or very well for a party. So in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.
What the poll has not done is confirm the swing to the Lib Dems that we saw last week in the three telephone pollsters that use past vote weighting - ICM, Populus and ComRes. But MORI’s 17% share of last month has been retained. Back in November Nick Clegg’s party was getting just 12%.
In all the polling at the moment the critical element is what the numbers will do to the internal machinations of the Labour party. It’s hard to see how 20% deficits from the firm are going to do anything other than add to the gloom and speculation about the leadership.
There will come a moment, surely, Brown’s position could come under real pressure.
Really? What fun! I think this might be some wishful thinking. Any move against Brown could not possibly come until after the June elections.