Now that the government reshuffle is complete, political journalists are now turning their attention to David Cameron's likely response. Ten days ago, I made my predictions in the Telegraph and Melissa Kite has had a go in the Sunday Telegraph today. However, it is by no means certain that he will actually do anything. I was told at the conference that he was minded to stick with the current team. However, I'd be surprised if he didn't make a few changes in response to Brown's rejigging of DEFRA.
Melissa Kite is talking up the chances of Greg Barker to shadow Ed Miliband in the new Energy and Climate Change department. I would be surprised by that. She also thinks Andrew Mitchell is for the chop, along with Peter Ainsworth and Theresa Villiers. She further speculates that Jeremy Hunt is a runner for the Party chairmanship, along with Messers Grayling and Pickles. She quotes a Shadow Cabinet Minister saying "The 2005 intake are like ferrets in a sack. They are snapping at all of our heels and a few of us are getting pretty fed up with it." Good. Ship up or ship out.
Now that DEFRA is essentially all about food and farming, David Cameron might want to consider promoting Jim Paice to the job. He's a safe pair of hands and knows exactly what's what in agriculture and food production.
With regard to Andrew Mitchell, he's an easy target for two reasons. People assume he was only in the Shadow Cabinet because of David Davis's patronage, but they would be wrong. He's close to George Osborne, and David Cameron is thought to rate him much more highly than might be thought. His area is notoriously difficult get huge amounts of media coverage out of, but he has really grown into the subject in a way some of us might have doubted when he was appointed. I doubt whether he will be sacked.
I said in my Telegraph column that I thought Peter Ainsworth would have to go. On a subject which is constantly hitting the headlines he has failed to develop any sort of media profile. To shadow Ed Miliband you need to appoint a good media performer and to my mind, Ed Vaizey fits the bill perfectly.
I still think Theresa Villiers will be moved as Geoff Hoon needs a different kind of character up against him. David Willetts could be replaced by Greg Clark but I expect Caroline Spelman to remain in post. Maria Miller and Justine Greening are the two names most mentioned for promotion to the top table but they have both said privately that they don't think they are ready. We'll see.
All good fun, isn't it?
20 comments:
Get Clifton-Brown out of DFID and into Food and Rural Affairs. It's made for him.
Jeremy Hunt for party chair, he's brilliant - and he blogs! A real blog too, not a Mickey Mouse one like Miliband's.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Letwin getting the Energy & Climate Change job. The policy coordination role is much less high-profile than it was this time last year and energy policy is certainly his main interest.It would also allow a very limited reshuffle, keeping all of the main spokesmen in place.
I too expect Letwin to get the Energy and Climate Change gig. Seems a role that would suit him...
What about Hezza up against Mandy in the Lords?
Justine Greening would be more suited to shadowing Ed Miliband. Crazy Vaizey still needs a bit more time to recover from his herbal viagra moment.
Letwin for Energy & Climate, great idea.
For voters Energy is the Tories achilles heel - Saving the planet is great, but if we don't get some practical policies to keep the lights on, we'll be in the dark before the election due in 2015.
Current greeny policies are simply not credible.
Does 'said privately' mean someone who knows someone, who knows someone else heard that someone met someone who said that someone had heard Maria Miller and Justine Greening said something?
*What about Hezza up against Mandy in the Lords?*
That would probably result in a few of them falling off their perch with the excitement! Yje shouting match would be great - mind you most of the Lords are deaf as a post anyway!
Hezza runs his own company, so he is unlikely to make a full time comback. More interesting would be Norman Tebbit against Mandelson!!!
The Snake meets the Polecat!
Cecil Parkinson would be a great opponent for Peter Mandelson. The only thing is which one would resign first?
Hezza is still fit - let's see him in the Lords - his last performance on Question Time is worth it surely.
Spelman doesn't seem to offer much. What about replacing her with Ken Clarke.
Willetts is better off as a backroom boy, I'd prefer to see someone else there but don't have any suggestions.
Who else is in the education brief? What about Nick Gibb? Is he out of the closet yet?
Energy & Climate - Alan Duncan (superb performer and Energy has always been where he's looked most comfortable in his BERR brief).
Transport - Eleanor Laing (one of the few Tories with a real understanding of Transport policy)
Business & Enterprise - John Redwood (we need some economic expertise at the top table)
Environment & Food - Hugo Swire (unfairly treated over his floating of ideas when shadowing DCMS)
Attorney-General - Theresa Villiers (now Grieve looks more permenant as Shadow Home Sec).
Letwin, maybe. But I wouldnt write Barker off so fast. He's been taking a pretty active, vocal stand on climate change for a while now, see most recently Telegraph online last week actually. Saying some very sensible things about Green Growth etc. Wonder what Melissa Kite knows that we dont...
A focus on climate change is now a mainstream part of British politics and the public will expect this to have a high priority. However this needs to be balence with an understanding of the importance of energy security and the price of energy for consumers and for business. Greg Barker would be a disaster in this role. He has been captured by the environmental movement. He is hostile to the expansion of nuclear power. His support for decentralised generation is worrying obessive.
We need someone who can balance the two challenges facing the new department. Energy security and reducting greenhouse gas emmissions.
I don't know where you're getting your facts from but Barker is pro nuclear and as the architect of the CCS policy work has shown a good grasp of energy security and coal vs gas issues.
The new energy post needs to be filled with someone with heavywieght energy experience (this is Barker's professional background) and with a good relationship with the oft troublesome green lobby.
I think Melissa Kite is spot on.
I agree Hugo Swire has been treated unfairly. He should be made party chairman, he would be excellent at geeing up the troops prior to the election. Have you ever seen him do an auction? he's hilarious!
I think that's a bit unfair actually. You cant question Barker's renewables expertise, and his strong grasp of the climate change issue overall. As for having been 'captured by the environmental movement', this sort of statement seems rather out of touch these days doesnt it? The Tories have worked hard for their green credentials- as have the democrats, and even the republicans in the states. Would you say John McCain has been brainwashed by the greenies because he now believes climate change is man made? any politician or party would be foolish to ignore the fact that the average voter (not green lobby fringe, but your everyday man in the street) now ranks the environment as a major issue. Being realistic about the changing feeling on this is essential and a good relationship with the green lobby is extremely helpful. What is not helpful is labelling every politician who succeeds in grasping this, and establishing useful productive links with the green lobby, as some kind of eco-warrior nutcase.
I thought the Tories as a whole (including Barker) were pretty much pro-nuclear, but were refusing to see it as some kind of silver bullet. Barker appears to be pro at least, but wants to make sure we hit our 2020 targets as a priority which means nuclear cant be the first, or only solution. Even if it is a good idea vis a vis emissions, it will take far too long and we will miss our targets and other opportunities for development of renewables in other sectors. This sounds realistic, not 'hostile'...
The problem with the Climate Change argument is that the UK has minimal impact globally.
Of course Climate Change needs to be addressed - but the big issue for the UK is energy availability.
Green propoganda and scaremongering has effectively blocked remedial action to date - The last thing we need is a green sympathiser in the job.
While voters are rightly concerned about the environment, the problem for the Tories is that the greens and their solutions are increasingly being seen as negative and unworkable.
People are now begining to realise the importance of energy supply.
Green tax's, shutting down the National Grid, local CHP (fired by what), and all the other green ideas are publicly recognised as overly expensive and often unworkable.
We need a strong objective pragmatic performer, someone who can face down the greens, who can develop a workable way forward and meet the timeline.
Then we will not only secure our energy supply but also reduce our emissions.
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