Thursday, July 24, 2008

Staying Up For Glasgow East

I will probably regret this, but both senior SNP and Tory sources all reckon the SNP might just pull it off. I'm staying up for this one!

What will it mean for Gordon Brown? Will his meeting tomorrow with Obama be overshadowed by domestic electoral woes? Will Labour MPs have the courage to do anything, and will the supine media again swallow the line that a single by election doesn't really mean anything. Think Eastbourne 1990.

UPDATE 12.30: SNP contacts predicting 1,500 majority.

UPDATE 12.35: Conservatives in Westminster North have seen the election of their candidate, Mehfuz Ahmed, in the Church Street Council By-Election. Church Street has been a Labour stronghold since its creation in 1964 – local residents have never before been represented by a Conservative Councillor. Mehfuz Ahmed’s victory is even more significant given Church Street’s location – it is one of ten electoral wards, and one of only four Labour wards, in the newly redrawn, marginal constituency of Westminster North.

UPDATE 12.45: Conservatives to leapfrog LibDems into 3rd place. LibDems to lose deposit it seems.

UPDATE 1.30: Recount. To stay up, or not to stay up, that is the question.

84 comments:

jamie said...

go Iain!

the only question now is do you watch the BBC or Sky coverage?

unfortunately i only have access to the BBC coverage streamed live on the news website.

limesmoothie said...

Good decision Iain, we can make it through to the wee small hours!Angus Robertson has just been on BBC Scotland and we was a happy chappie. Doesn't bode well for SLab.

Liz said...

I'm staying up for it too - although I think a Lab win is likely, I'm not *convinced* they'll carry it, and I don't think they've dealt well with expectation management this time round. The coverage isn't making much sense though; I was up at 5 this (yesterday) morning, which means that I'm now so tired I'm pretty much seeing double.

FonyBlair said...

I for one want the SNP to win if only to see Brown out by the end of this year so I can pick up my winnings at William Hill.

All the projections so far seem to be pointing to an SNP victory....this should be a fun night for those of us who enjoy seeing Brown squirm!!

"We are listening". Yeah Mr Brown...listening so much you couldn't even be bothered to go to the constituency to campaign!

Diablo said...

You bugger! You've made me stay up too! Sounds like the SNP may just sneak in. But I don't see that dislodging the Clunking Fist is on the cards. He's just about got enough of his fingernails left to hang on!

limesmoothie said...

Looking at the odds on Betfair, the SNP have come right in and Lab have lengthened. Glad I punted much earlier when everyone said Lab would hang on.

Bill Quango MP said...

http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/

Congratulations Mr Dale!
you won our "who will say Eastbourne 1990" first.

23.55 24/7/08

{no prize though}

Anonymous said...

lets all laugh at gordon..... does this mean that 250 labour mps are now out of a job in 2 yeats

Anonymous said...

Punters on Betfair are backing SNP heavily now.. if they manage to get anywhere near Labour, or win - which would be extraordinary, Brown's position becomes untenable and he'll be gone before the Labour conference.

Perhaps Obama should just sidestep Brown tomorrow and talk directly to Harman?

jamie said...

BBC: it appears that the SNP has won.

J said...

1500 majority would be beyond sensational...

Iain, hope you're approving posts quickly tonight - politicalbetting.com seems to be down :(

BOF2BS said...

Looks if the SNP have got it. Clear favourites on Betfair & Labour 2/1 against.

WOW.

Not the end of GB but mortally wounded.

Simon said...

It is amazing that the BBC can devote hours of coverage to this by-election result. The last few have not exactly been covered in depth.

Wonder why

limesmoothie said...

Iain, I hope you are correct. That would be a sensation.

javelin said...

Brown is not brave enough to resign and nobody is stupid enough to want to replace him.

J said...

Simon, I think you're a little harsh.

They covered Crewe & Nantwich in detail - because it was competitive. Henley and H&H were foregone conclusions, so got little coverage. This is competitive, so it gets covered in detail.

I'll criticise the BBC when they deserve it, but your implied criticism is unwarranted.

jamie said...

excellent result in Westminster North! :)

Fitaloon said...

Herald has this

Liz said...

Schadenfreude - the gift that keeps on giving. This is turning out to be a very enjoyable year.

BOF2BS said...

So SNP about 11,000 & Labour 9,000 ish with us in third place

Anonymous said...

MAMMA MIA IAN !!! IT LOOKS LIKE THE S.N.P. WON...i hope you stayed up,michael.

jamie said...

libs lost their deposit? talk about icing on the cake!

Tim Read said...

Surely Brown will have to stand down ?

He risks losing his own constituency in a general election.

Richard Gadsden said...

This is more like Christchurch 1993 than Eastbourne 1990. Enormous swing against an intensely unpopular government. Last nail in the coffin.

After that, everyone, including the Tories, knew that they couldn't win anything - by next year, we had Littleborough and Saddleworth with Labour and the Lib Dems fighting it out for who would take the seat from the Tories.

limesmoothie said...

LibDems to lose deposit? And all the commentators were agreed that the candidate had had such a good campaign. Mind you, the LibDems are leaderless and rudderless both in Holyrood, where they opted out of coalition and in Westminster.

Martin said...

Did anyone else hear that idiot Michael Crick talk about how Labour ran a good campaign and that they kept the lid on the whole Daivd Marshall thing?

What a cheek!! The Marshall allegations were in the media weeks ago.

The BBC just played it down until last night.

Funny that Crick didn't do the same over Caroline Spelman.

Benny Austwick said...

this is going to be a remarkable victory for the SNP.

Political Betting seems to be down, bah!

limesmoothie said...

Martin - quite. The Marshall thing stinks to high heaven and the media have pussyfooted around it for weeks.

Gordon said...

Do you think it will be Blears or Harpic doing the rounds tomorrow saying that this shows the public want Gordon Brown to continue

Exile said...

I've just had a text from the UK, which reports a source inside the count. The report is that the SNP has "won well".

Given that I was born in the days of steam wireless - when Eden was PM - the wonders of the web never cease to amaze me.

JohnKellett said...

"Political Betting seems to be down, bah!" - ah I'm glad it's not just me that it's not working for. All those Glaswegians overloading the server...?

ASwaS said...

Liveblog from the SNP gathering at my blog...

[/plug]

gordos salt waters wells in my eyes said...

dear nu lab supporters

i trust you hold onto the sensation this morning when you take a hiding from the people of glasgow

the final nail in the coffin of the con of "new" labour has been struck

after 10 yrs of ruinous economic policy, fragmentation of society, increasing disparity in wealth, prolific destruction of habeas corpus whilst using legislating at a rate of knots finally the people are waking to see you in your terrible glory

greedy, corrupt, self serving

you are indeed the weakest link

goodbye

Yak40 said...

Where's verity for some good comments :)

Anonymous said...

QUICK!

Go to Wikipedia and look up John Mason Scottish politician!

LOL!

Anonymous said...

Looks like we are only 15 minutes away from a result ! And the Lib Dems appear to be looking at a lost deposit !

Bill Quango MP said...

I erm, have listened to the, erm, people of Glasgow, and I will learn the erm, lesson.

Tomorrow we meet the unions where we will Re Re Re Re Relaunch our party on a 3 hour day for the public sector, 72 days holiday and unlimited sick leave, mixed with a Tax and Tax policy, aimed at liberals and conservatives.
I erm, will meanwhile, be getting on with job of shafting the economy and poncing about the world, reassuring no-one and alienating everyone.

[raise hands in a copy of Obama. Do grimace to camera.walk off podium]

Martin said...

Female Beeboid was just making excuses.

"They didn't get their vote out" she bleats.

On radio 5 John Pinhead and Dotton the idiot claim it's "just a protest vote".

Well theBBC were not saying that the other day.

Oh dear. The BBC won't take this well.

Anonymous said...

STV have lib dem's pushed into 5th by Solidarity (Tommy Sheridan's socialists)

Martin said...

Dotton the idiot on 5 live is in full Labour support mode.

"So life expectancy in Glasgow is the fault of the Government" he spouts

Of course Nu Liebour NEVER claim the improvements in health are down to them to they?

Dotton sounds like he's about to cry. People should tune in to 5 live. It's priceless crap.

Tankus said...

did the Curren have to throw her original job in , so that she could run ?

Anonymous said...

Looks like Gordon Brown's New Labour are about to take a kicking...

Tankus said...

sky news is crap

Martin said...

Now on 5 live Dotton is claiming that there could be a hung Parliament at the next election.

Oh yes, the opinion polls really show that you moron.

limesmoothie said...

Rumours of a recount....nooooooooooooooo

Anonymous said...

The R-Word - it is a f//king recount !! Yay !!! Labour are playing for time because they are $h!tting their load taht thsi is the end of Gordon !!

Anonymous said...

Recount !!

Jack said...

Recount! O joy!

Anonymous said...

Labour clutching at straws !!!

Jack said...

Thank god I'm an insomniac.

Marquee Mark said...

Stay up. This is history.

Martin said...

Classic from John Pinhead on 5 lite just now.

"Looks like the nationalists won by 400 votes, that's a lot less than they were hping for"

So let me get this right.

The SNP win a hard core Labour seat but John Pinhead says it's not a great result?

I think we all know that the BBC will be in FULL defend Gordon.

The BBC will be like the British army in ZULU.

Liz said...

Well, *this* is aggravating. Off to make a reviving G&T. Take that, Dawn Primarolo.

jamie said...

if it's a full recount, i ain't staying up.

if however they're only counting frances currans vote, i may well stay up.

Yak40 said...

Hanging Chad time !

Missing ballot boxes found at last minute, postman came late .....

Benny Austwick said...

I bet Gordon called the recount

BOF2BS said...

Apparently Labour need 177 of the straws to be clutched as 1st majority was 354!

Also 2 many Curran's on ballot paper
Good night!

Martin said...

Iain Dale!!!

Harriet Harman for Labour leader.

You must start the campaign for it now.

Is it true Gordon Brown has taken a canoe with him to the seaside?

limesmoothie said...

That's the spirit, Liz. Indulge in some reckless middle class binge drinking.

Looks like its only a bundle check. They must know they've lost.

Daily Referendum said...

I'm staying up - will the Tories get more than 10%? Will the Lib Dems lose their deposit? Will the SNP end Gordon's career?

Great stuff.

Anonymous said...

STV (David Torrance) now reporting recount of votes are just of the Curran's (Labour and socialists) and admitted that Lib Dems have come 5th, sorry for bum information Scottish TV at its finest.

Auntie Flo' said...

The commentators have mentioned a margin of 358.

However, I lip read one of the labour people saying 1000. He might have been talking about a thousand in some other context, of course.

Liz said...

I am amazed that the Beeb don't have anyone on the ground in Glasgow who can actually explain whether this is a full recount or not.

Yak40 said...

West Ham 2 MLS 3

wrinkled weasel said...

I have bought into this. So I will stay up, have a pinch of snuff and watch with glee as Labour melts into history.

wrinkled weasel said...

This is Labour's "Portillo" moment. It is the moment when you know,beyond doubt, that the game is up.

The only people around tomorrow who will be mitigating this unmitigated Labour disaster will be the die-hards left in the Fuhrer Bunker.

Diablo said...

I'm going to bed now. The SNP have won by 1206 votes and the Tories have come third. The LibDems have lost their deposit and Gordon Brown will step down tomorrow and hand over to Douglas Alexander who will tell Barak Obama that Scotland will break away from the UK and become the 51st state of the USA. David Cameron will assume power of the rest of the UK after a coup d'etat by the three members of the armed forces left in the country and immediately introduce the death penalty for bicycle theft.

The economy miraculously starts to boom as every one finds that £10,000 has been deposited into their bank accounts and global warming is reversed thus saving us £zillions introducing all this nonsense.

The Labour Party has become a heritage site where visitors can poke an effigy of Gordon Brown with a very sharp stick and sit on Tony Blair while punching him very severely and saying "Effing WMDs - what effing WMDs were there then?"

I think I may have already gone to sleep so some of this might not have happened. But may be it has.....?

jamie said...

Glasgow East Full Results:

John Mason, SNP: 11,277
Margaret Curran, Lab: 10,912
Davena Rankin, Con: 1,639
Ian Robertson, Lib: 915
Frances Curran, SSP: 555
Tricia McLeish, Sol: 512
Dr Eileen Duke, Grn: 232
Chris Creighton, Ind: 67
Hamish Howitt, Ind: 65

Rejected: 45

Total: 26,219

Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen a deposit kicking about ? Lib Dem appear to have lost one...

Anonymous said...

hi ian,"i had a dream" that tonight gordon would meet his "waterloo" and i think he has..."i do,i do,i do" it is a case of "the winner takes it all"
it will be interesting to see how the members of the cabnet explain this result later today,sleep tight,michael.
p.s looking forward to seeing mamma mia.

Rog said...

I can scarcely believe this result, it's MUCH worse for Labour than anyone thought.

Here's some numbers to think about...

Lab vote 2005: 18775 votes
Lab vote 2008: 10912 votes
Difference: 7863 votes

Labour lost 42% of the dyed in the wool voters they had in 2005!


These are people who vote Labour no matter what!

Ha ha ha... etc.

Electoral wipe out beckons.

"Bring it on" as they say in Scotland.

Rog said...

...It'll be interesting how Lab (and the various Beeb outlets) try to spin this one.

JessTheDog said...

Utterly astounding! There is one message to take from this - Labour are toast. They are triangulated, to use their own phrase - the Tories are attacking from the left and the right in England and Wales, and the SNP have them on the ropes in Scotland. The only question is whether the SNP's popularity will decline enough over the next 2 years to offer Labour some respite in Scotland - but I doubt it.

Labour are going to be obliterated in 2010 and I doubt there will be much of a party to fight over for the leadership, particularly given the financial position.

Happy days indeed! Payback for the misdeeds of the last 10 years!

JessTheDog said...

The BBC loyalists (student union Labour hacks from the 1970s and 1980s) are in damage limitation mode.

"The Nationalists overturned a Labour majority of 13,507 to win by only 365 votes with a swing of 22.54%"

"Voter turnout was 42.25%, down on the 48% figure at the last election, with 26,219 votes cast. "

Using a general election turnout figure to make the comparison is disingenuous to say the least.

There will be the odd glimmer of reality - Brian Taylor's blog is normally good. Wonder how Nick Robinson will report it.

We all know that Brown will be safe until 2010, however. What this message says is that they are all toast then!

another Cath said...

Anyone remember a chap called Nick Clegg? Is he still in politics?

Straw-Clutcher said...

If you add both Curran's votes together Labour win.

Anonymous said...

Martin said...
"The BBC will be like the British army in ZULU."

The British army won!

The Zulus retreated.

Anonymous said...

A remarkably good result for the Conservatives in Glasgow East.

Unlike the LibDems they managed not to lose their deposit.

Anonymous said...

John Pienaar - What is it about the Nulab media brigade - cant concede anything gracefully can they?

Anonymous said...

Must be a black morning at the BBC - hardly any coverage on the breakfast shows - wonder - would it have been the same if it was a conservative loss of similar proportions? -

Martin said...

The BBC have been pathetic.

BBC News 24 have just had that utter loon Tony Benn on.

You know when things are bad when some old fart who started to waffle on about hip operations (I kid you not) and doing that very odd hand twizzling thing gets airtime on the BBC.

Simon said...

I see that you have removed the John Pienaar quote. Was he not quite so sympathetic towards Labour after all?

Iain Dale said...

Simon, he did say the words, but in context they had a slightly different meaning to the one inferred. So I decided to remove it.

Simon said...

Thank you for the explanation Iain. I decided to switch off the radio and go to sleep when I heard a recount was needed.