Friday, July 25, 2008
Glasgow Aftermath: How to Read the Runes
There are four things to look out for over the next 24 hours before we can judge how deep the doo-doo is which Gordon Brown is trudging in.
Silence is Golden
Tick off how many Cabinet Ministers appear on the media in support of the Prime Minister. In particular watch out for Jack Straw, Alan Johnson, Geoff Hoon and Alistair Darling. If the likes of Balls, Cooper and the Milibands stay silent, Brown is in real trouble. And if there is a mass appearance before the cameras watch out for the 'message'. They will have all been briefed to put out a single message. I suspect the message will be that it's not about Gordon, we've all got to take the blame. In essence, they will be doing the opposite of 'taking one for the team'. They'll be taking one for Gordon.
See if the media allows the Obama visit to drown out the terrible news from Glasgow East. It may come a day too late though. If the BBC and Sky lead each news bulletin with Obama, Labour MPs will breathe a sigh of relief.
The Usual Suspects?
Let's see if any Labour MPs break cover. We can expect the usual suspects to call for Gordon's head. Graham Stringer, John McDonnell etc. But if a few MPs in marginal seats who feel threatened decide to come out in the open, then the long march to oblivion may have started.
Alas Poor Warwick...
The media should lay siege to Labour's National Policy Forum tomorrow at Warwick University. These are the arch activists. I will lay bets that various Union leaders and activists will relish their moment in the spotlight, and act accordingly.