Friday, July 11, 2008

SNP Storm Ahead in YouGov Poll

Political attention now turns to the Glasgow East by election, where the SNP are threatening Labour's 13,500 majority. They will be bouyed today by a YouGov poll for the Scottish Daily Telegraph which not only shows SNP support at record levels, but also that 49% of Scottish voters want the SNP to unseat Labour in Glasgow East.

The poll also shows the Conservatives doing much better on 20%, up 4% on their 2005 showing.The figures are (change from the 2005 election in brackets):

SNP: 33% (+15)
Lab: 29% (-11)
Con: 20% (+4)
Lib Dem: 14% (-9)

Last October, Labour had a lead of 42% to 27% for the SNP in the YouGov poll. I'm increasingly of the view that if Gordon Brown is toppled, ironically it will be Scotland 'wot' did it.

More from the Spectator Coffee House.

40 comments:

Jeff said...

Very interesting.

But again, I don't know if those outside of Scotland fully appreciate the deeply entrenched Labour views of those in Glasgow.

The rest of Scotland voted SNP into power last year in spite of the wishes of most of Glasgow.

SNP campaigners in this contsituency are having people APOLOGISE to them for voting Labour, seemingly incapable of considering voting another way but knowing deep down it is 'wrong' of them.

Margaret Curran may yet win this with a large majority.

Lord Elvis of Paisley said...

Wasn't it YouGov that called the London Mayoral election correctly? Hope so...

Jon said...

Unlikely, but wouldn't it be sweet to see the Conservatives come second after the SNP

Anonymous said...

Put that Spectator magazine had reported that the Chancellor twice tried to hand his notice in to the Prime Minister during the run up to the Budget, the PMS said that he had no information on that story.


So it is true then.

Anonymous said...

It's one upmanship now, they do not want to be out done by the voters of Crewe and Nantwick.

True Brit said...

Iain: "I'm increasingly of the view that if Gordon Brown is toppled, ironically it will be Scotland 'wot' did it."

Nothing ironic in that, given that it was England 'wot' put Labour in power three times in a row with a big majority in England alone every time - 2005 results for England:

Labour 286 MPs
Conservative 194 MPs
Liberal 47 MPs

plus two independents (inc. Georgeous George, elected by his adoring English constituents :-)

And yes, before some pedant points out that the Tories got 60,000 votes more than Labour in England, that's not how it panned out seatwise - we don't have PR (thank goodness), so it doesn't matter a jot, and in any evemt, is still not Scotland's fault!

But still so many bleat and whine about Scotland running England - most in ignorance of the electoral facts above, others (including most around here) who choose to ignore the electoral facts for their own twisted purposes.

For a supplementary question, of all the thousands of votes in Parliament, on how many occasions have Scottish MPs carried the day on matters that are ostensibly (though not necessarily) solely English/Welsh?

Just four. Four times too many to be sure, but not quite the Tartan jackboots the Little Englanders whine about so piteously.

In closing, I commend the following academic paper to you on the subject of devolution (and its history in the UK) and on possible workable solutions to the apparent iniquities in the current settlement:

Barnett and the WLQ

- the most practical solution appearing to be: a reduction in the numbers of Scottish MPs to about two-thirds of their current numbers (at the moment the Scots have around he same number of MPs per head as elsewhere in the UK - a total of 59 MPs out of 646 MPs) - with the same powers as they have now - anything less creates a potentially Union busting injustice in reverse. It's a difficult circle to square, but whilst most people in the UK wish to remain British (as they do) then some kind of workable* compromise will be necessary.

* English votes for English laws isn't a pro-Union solution, nor is an English Parliament - both could potentially be in conflict with the wider UK, thus busting the Union idea again.

Anonymous said...

This government's attack on Incapacity Benefit claimants might make a few of their core voters think twice and vote SNP.

The downfall of Brown would be the downfall of these IB changes, so what have the voters in Glasgow to lose?

Newmania said...

Jesus H Christ that will finish Brown Iain for god`s sake someone go up there and campaign for the Labour Party.
It could be the most significant by election of the era. Cameron`s speech , a male life expectancthe 5os and all a snip at bilions and bilions wasted on socialist clap trap.

We could see a GE in six months in the middle of a bitter inter Labouir war.

Newmania said...

Jesus H Christ that will finish Brown Iain for god`s sake someone go up there and campaign for the Labour Party.
It could be the most significant by election of the era. Cameron`s speech , a male life expectancthe 5os and all a snip at bilions and bilions wasted on socialist clap trap.

We could see a GE in six months in the middle of a bitter inter Labouir war.

Blue Eyes said...

The English and Scottish are united once more! (in their dislike of our unelected tyrant, Gordon Brown)

Bob Piper said...

Muppets!

The Poll, as David Davis' finger puppet tried to tell you, was for "the whole of Scotland"... not Glasgow East.

if the Tories even dreamt they would get a double figure percentage of the vote in this constituency they would wake up and apologise.

They got 6.9% in 2005.

keep up, fot God's sake.

Andrew said...

True Brit at 2:40 is spot on - Gordon has done his best to bury his Scottish connections so comprehensively there would be no irony in events north of the border precipitating his downfall.

Blue Eyes said...

"True Brit" says England voted Labour in 2005, and he is right on the very narrow measure he uses. When will he take into account (and when will the Tories promise to reform) the boundaries which allow Labour heartlands considerably more seats per vote than the Tory ones?

angelneptunestar said...

Gordon Brown's horoscope shows that by 2010 he is no longer in a position of power and nothing much is happening to him......

Boris Johnson's horoscope shows that as well as having the sign of a genius in his natal chart (an eclipse of Mercury and Jupiter), he also has the Fixed Star Alcyon conjunct his Mars. This indicates someone who is called to high office and receives many honours through office.

Haven't checked out DC yet......

Anonymous said...

And we all know what you were hoping for in Glenrothes.

wrinkled weasel said...

I think you have election fever.

Calm down dear...

There are a lot of Weegies who are incredibly thick. I mean really, really, thick. How is it, do you think, that there are huge swathes of Glasgow where there are the sick and the dying, due to too many mars bars and too many fags? Mein Gott, there are square miles of the suburbs where kids of eleven have never seen a VEGETABLE!

Unless, that is, they were voting Labour.

If some of the constituents can get off the sofa, read a ballot paper and be transported to a polling booth, they are going to vote Labour. Most of them think that by putting an "X" on the ballot paper, they are signing their names.


Just don't expect miracles up here. That's all.

Trumpeter Lanfried said...

I can see the BBC's coverage now, in my mind's eye:

'BIG BOOST FOR LABOUR as SNP win seat by wafer-thin majority of 98%.'

Andy D said...

I'm still of the view 'I'll beleive it when I see it' with regards to that by-election.

With simply a completely true-red seat, for it to be lost would be unimaginable for Labour, and as pleasing as it would be, I would be very, very causous with regards to how the actual voting on the day will go.

Vox Populli said...

If Labour cant win in their heartlands and they can't win their 25th most safe Parliamentary Seat(prior to this poll admittedly) then they are well and truly finished as a political force - they rely on their Scottish MPs to force through contentious legislation.

The "ripple effect" of a)Labour losing and b) SNP winning will be significant for both parties and I suspect that any Labour Backbench MP(plus a majority of the Cabinet) sitting on a majority of less than 13,500 will be banging on Gordon's door on Friday 25th demanding he step down.

The SNP in turn will have gained a huge PR victory and momentum

Newmania said...

True Brit actually I agree with your solution although 2/3 seems far too many to me given the extent of devolved powers . 1/3 , I would have said . Your opening paragraphs are a bit misleading though. It is entirely possible that an entire administration could easily ride on Scottish seats. The fact it currently does not is a far weaker point than you seem to think and everything you say only follows from that.
You cannot dump the responsibility for the Union disproportionately on the English and I detect little affection for the UK as an entity myself. .It is the Scots you have to berate . They must decide whether or not they want to be in from the menu . At the moment they are dining ala caret at our expense fiscally and democratically. Not on.

We do agree at least that the current dog’s breakfast proposed by Clarke is a sticking plaster on an arterial wound.

True Brit said...

Blue Eyes: "[True Brit] is right on the very narrow measure he uses"

Seats won is the only measure that counts, narrow or not!

Blue Eyes: "When will he take into account (and when will the Tories promise to reform) the boundaries which allow Labour heartlands considerably more seats per vote than the Tory ones?"

There's the rub indeed - but fifteen to twenty years ago it was estimated that the Conservatives had an even bigger advnatage in reverse (as much as 100 seats, IIRC from the Sunday Times - back in the glory days of Brillo's editorship) - and we (on the right) weren't so worried about it then!

I suspect part of this apparent disparity is just a feature of first-past-the-post - the more seats you have the fewer apparent votes are needed on average per seat (as can be seen if you look at the huge number of votes on average per LibDim MP - and we think we have it bad!).

The other reason is that the middle-classes (and thus more Conservative) are being pushed bit-by-bit out of British cities, where their votes are 'lost' (in terms of effect) amongst the existing Tory rural voters - this is a result of successive crappy government policies over many years that have left inner-cities and now the suburbs less and less pleasant places to live (at least for quiet, law-abiding indigenous Brits who want decent educations etc. for their children).

welsh lobbyist said...

22% is a large swing, but Labour lost Blaenau Gwent in South Wales rock solid Labour seat of former Labour leader 'Michael Foot and Aneurin Bevan to Peter Law (a former part member) who stood as Independent and overturned a 20,000 Labour majority to win Blaenau Gwent on a swing of 49% in 2005 because of Labour's insistence to impose an all woman shortlist against the will of the local party and people,

Its different circumstances I know but if the core labour electorate want change then party needs to be aware there are presidents of large swings against the party in recent years.

wrinkled weasel said...

Lanfried..priceless.

I would be funny if if wasn't so true.

If the SNP win Glasgow East, I shall publicly eat my nipples.

If, by some fluke they do, the Scottish dead tree press will go with..

"Minor Party woos extremists with populist agenda. And in other news, Alex Salmond denies smothering kitten." (They have softened somewhat since the election)

Anonymous said...

GET YOUR CASH ON THE SNP AT 6/4. There is a good chance Labour will get stuffed, very doubtful if Curran can keep her mouth shut and going by her performance on Newsnight last night she has no hope. She is useless and people are real fed up with Brown so could not be a better chance than this.

Didactophobe said...

As jeff and wrinkled weasel have indicated, the culture in Glasgow East is that most voters support Labour out of tribal loyalty. They think that if they vote against Labour, their house won't get repaired or their benefits will be cut.

At the local elections in Scotland last year, all but two local authorities in Scotland went to 'No Overall Control', because of the introduction of proportional representation. The two rotten burghs (Scottish spelling) which still contrived to produce Labour majorities were North Lanarkshire and... Glasgow City.

As a by-election, this is most comparable to Ealing Southall last year, in that there is a highly insular culture, and the outcome is highly unlikely to correlate with how the parties are doing in 99% of the country.

Looking on the bright side, the Conservative support in Scotland is slowly recovering. Also, most Scottish opinion polls are biased towards voters in the central belt, therefore overstating Labour support and underestimating the Conservative vote. Doesn't stop Glasgow East being a safe Labour seat, though.

Bill Quango MP said...

Mr Dale, do one of your predict the result posts again.

I posted Tory win + 700 for Crewe and was so happy to be so wrong.

I call Glasgow east to Labour 7000+ majority.

I will of course be equally happy to be equally wrong.

Anonymous said...

Jeff, tru brit said,bob piper,andrew said,blue eyes,wrinkled weasel,

members of a dying breed - socialists!!

How is the bottler? He must be feeling better after his twelve courses!

Promised a crackdown (whatever it takes!!) on knife crime. The streets of London have gone mad since! He is a Curse on us all.

C'mon Glasgee get rid of the mad man

Anonymous said...

Bob Piper...Do you seriously believe that socialism has a future in the 21st century? Like marxism and communism it is dead...The electorate have had 11 years of socialism and see it for what it is...Nu Lab in its current form is destined for the wilderness...Martin

neil craig said...

49% wanting Labour to lose to the SNP is, if anything, surprisingly low in a country with 4 big parties, 3 of whom are nominally to the right of Labour. Everybody likes to see a bully taken down.

What is not surprising, but at odds with recent history, is the drop in the LibDim % putting some considerable coloured water between them & the Tories. For a former party of government which took 2nd place at the last Westminster election this is pretty disasterous. Throughout the 19thC Scotland was a liberal stronghold & I believe it is the party not the country which has given up on liberalism.

javelin said...

So that means SNP win, Gordon resigns, Harpee/Millibean/Blinky is new PM, New Labour lose badly.

Another version is that Conservatives take SNP votes, Labour win, Gordon struggles on through a recession, New Labour are wiped off the map.

I know which one I would want.

Anonymous said...

Political attention has not turned to the SNP.

Political attention remains firmly on the future of David Davis. Will Cameron leave the loose cannon on the backbenches. Will David Davis honour his pledge to represent the constituency as an independent on a single issue (ie refuse the Tory whip).

But nice try Iain.

;-)

Iain Dale said...

Are you barking mad? He never made any such pledge and well you know it. Prat.

True Brit said...

Apologies, I messed up the hyperlink on my comment above. This one should work:

Barnett and the West Lothian Question: no nearer to solutions than when the Devolution Programme started

Well worth reading for the background on past devolution (Irish Home Rule etc.) and on the issues around Barnett and the WLQ and the advantages and disadvantages of some of the proposed constitutional solutions.

P.S. To the anonymoron who thibks I some of the others he named are socialists, yeah, right. Twerp.

Paul said...

Looks like this has becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

Anonymous said...

" English votes for English laws isn't a pro-Union solution, nor is an English Parliament - both could potentially be in conflict with the wider UK, thus busting the Union idea again"

True Brit, you are not right.
The only way to secure the Union is for the two nations of Scotland and England to have separate parliament and governments with an overarching British parlaiment - perhaps slimmed down.

English Votes etc or Fiddling around with numbers of Scottish MP's in the British parliament at Westminster will not achieve this and the cancer of injustice will remain.

Red Exile / Красная Ссылка said...

Having pondered it a just a little today - and thanks to online betting - I backed labour to win (there are *bloody* good odds right now).

(a) the London-centric chatterati triumphalism - and Brits are oddly reliable this way - seems set to give way to a bit of 'up-yours-ism' - and I can think of no UK region more likely than the arse-end of Glasgow to vote for what it no longer loves, if only to shove it up the (BBC) English middle classes; and

(b) in that constituency, so few people give a s#*$ about politics, anyway, the turn-out will be incredibly low, I have assumed, which means the Council-dependant-welfartariat will be a disporportionately large voter segement than in a General.

I loathe his politics, but on this occasion I back Guido's bet-addicted nouse over YouGov's middle England voter-accuracy.

Anonymous said...

The best thing that could possibly happen to the Labour movement is a defeat in Glasgow East - and a big one at that.

Brown would, in my eyes, be toppled - some slug from the cabinet would grow a backbone and challenge for the leadership. Government in disarry, the economy falling apart at the seams (inevitable - see Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae in the US today)and an election would HAVE to be called, No new leader would have a mandate to govern.

The Tories win in a landslide, the economy disappears into a black hole and the Tories take the can. Result - a new Labour administration in 2013.

If they try to hang on, the Labour movement is toast, burnt toast and will disintegrate.

Think I'm mad - just wait. The economy in 2009 will make 1929 look like a bed of roses.

Anonymous said...

I don't think it it Yank Banks failing that will concern Glasgow East - rather it is the prospect of Gordon's Welfare Benefit reforms that will make once loyal Labour supporters vote SNP.

JessTheDog said...

This is more like Crewe and Nantwich than it seems. At this stage, I would say that Labour are the slight favourites, based on the demographics and the voting history of the constituency, as they were initially in Crewe and Nantwich. However, I predict another inept campaign (following on from the candidate selection debacle) against a professional slick campaign by the SNP based upon the key issue of the catastrophically mishandled economy. The aim of the SNP will be to get angry voters to cross their box and disillusioned voters to stay at home. Watch the goalposts shift over the next week or two. I predict a modest SNP win. Remember that, in the Scottish Parliament election of 2007, Margaret Curran was less than 4,000 votes ahead of the SNP for the Glasgow Baillieston constituency (similar socioeconomic profile, ie. crime, unemployment and drug abuse rife). Needless to say, this is not a Tory race and the candidate will be a token candidate.

By the way, the incumbent in my constituency (next door to Broon's) is likely to stand down soon due to health problems. The SNP will walk it.

Anonymous said...

True Brit said...

"it was England 'wot' put Labour in power three times in a row with a big majority in England alone"

So England doesn't need Scotland in order to do what England wants to achieve anyway? Good. Vote SNP and go away.