Thursday, January 10, 2008
Can Boris Win? (Rhetorical)
I am speaking on the subject of CAN BORIS WIN? tonight at an event organised by the London Chambers of Commerce. Co speakers are Tony Travers from the LSA and Andrew Hawkins from the polling firm ComRes. Obviously I shall be saying that not only he CAN win, he WILL win, but if you have any startling insights you think I should give this august audience, do leave them in the comments!
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49 comments:
Too lazy.
Iain, I think you should start by saying he has no chance of winning.
Then go on to say that he will definitely drop a few beauties into the press pack, forcing him and your party into a humiliating apology.
Trust me Iain, you will be better thought of for your honesty.
Gary
It's a terrifying thought to think Boris might become Mayor of London, representing the city across the world.
He would make London look like a bad joke.
Joel
Umm you could ask the other panelists whether it is their view that former mayors should be prosecuted for corruptly using public funds to bolster their own campaign for re-election?
The Evening Standard has raised many issues as to Ken Livingstone's competence and integrity in handing out tax payers money to his pet projects and organisations. Surely this must be an election issue? How come the other main stream papers are not picking this up?
Something that would be concerning me if I was a Londoner was the blank cheque Ken wrote for the Olympics.
I would be concerned at the evidence of a City hall mafia over Grell and the publicly financed Boris smearers.
The way London used as a repository of every failed policy the government has , for example uncontrolled immigration, and welfare for nothing ...27 teenage deaths last year. Not unrelated and what about some police on the street whhere did they go...to the stats invention chamber ?
Schools in London: Dire
Boris has real world experience Ken was a teacher for a week.
Ken does not even represent the Labour Party who detest his 1970s unreformed extremism.
Ken has used his position to mug the Councils over social housing sucking in yet more problem . In other words he is Browns bully not London’s representative against the state as he should be.
Why does he keep sucking up to the Muslims despite their rancid homophobia and aggressive disregard for the English acting more like an invading coloniser than newcomers
What sort of London do we want ? One Billy Brag cheers on from all white Dorset or one where ordinary people can use the state educational system . This is part of the problem
In 2006, according to ONS statistics, the top ten local authorities for percentages of live births to mothers born outside the UK were as follows:
Newham: 74%
Brent: 71%
Westminster: 70%
Tower Hamlets: 69%
Kensington and /Chelsea: 68%
Ealing: 63%
Camden: 62%
Harrow: 61%
Haringey: 61%
Waltham Forest: 57%
In that same year, according to official statistics, the top ten authorities with the highest percentage of pupils whose first language is not English were as follows:
Tower Hamlets: 75%
Newham: 71%
Westminster: 69%
City of London: 65%
Brent: 58%
Camden: 58%
Hackney: 54%
Ealing: 54%
Haringey: 53%
Kensington and Chelsea: 52%
[Source of statistics: Estimating the scale and impact of migration at the local level, An Institute of Community Cohesion Report commissioned)
The people that cheer this on do not send their kids to schools failing to cope with eight languages. Not ever.
My goodness, I hope so, as one connected to his team.
Pick up a Standard for a write-up of the Boris/Ken debate.
I went - Boris won.
To address this question in conventional UK political terms you need to look slightly more widely than is customary.
You have to remember that London in political terms is rather like late 1920's Berlin. It still has democratic organs and many people still obey the rule of law. But Livingstone has orchestrated VERY wide corruption, with large numbers of 'pressure groups' funded by the organs of government he controls actiung in a purely partisan way to support him and his party (or perhaps 'Party').
And with unofficial 'henchmen' who under certain circumstances will be prepared to use the threat of violence to intimidate opponents.
I am sure there will be howls of outrage from NuLab trolls at this but it is a fact. It has been demonstrated very clearly in the Lee Jasper case, where there has been significant physical intimidation of people opposing him or trying to halt the gravey-train he is on. There has also be the almost unprecedented (in the UK) co-ordinated orchestration of abuse of Livingstone's opponents by publicly funded (i.e., Livingstone-directed funding) bodies.
It is unvclear how much of this is political or is (ultimately) money-driven.
Being on 'Have I Got News For You' seems to be the main reason people are saying they will vote for him!
Modern politics...*sigh*
Do you think his chances of winning are aided by his (seeming) reluctance to mention 'Conservative(s)' anywhere on his website* (and therefore, presumably, related campaign materials)?
I don't have a problem with it if it helps him win, but it's the first time I've seen anything quite so overt in campaigning as to not mention the party he's standing for or to be associated with it. I'm curious about what lead up to the deliberate decision to do that and what those factors were.
* Okay, the site actually mentions that he's a Conservative MP for Henley, but that's it. No tree, no Dave, no nothing.
In a sentence: of course he can.
Lee Jasper, Lee Jasper, Lee Jasper, Lee Jasper ......
Hugo Chavez, Hugo Chavez, Hugo Chavez ....
you get the idea.
"august audience" in January...
As anyone who has studied the entries on the PC.com Political Forecaster of the Year competition will know, Iain is not just saying this out of party loyalty. He genuinely thinks Boris will win the Mayoralty...and incidentally that Barack Obama will win the US presidency.
Having gone Livingstone/McCain I reckon he's wrong on both counts, but we'll see.
He can win but he needs to get himself a proper press handler.
At the moment he has two junior girls helping him. they need someone to direct them and establish high level contacts with the media.
The fear must be that the 'silly ass' act that Boris has [unwittingly perhaps] honed over the years has become his default persona.
There is no doubt that he is an acute intellect, and I am sure that he would be a thrilling dining-companion. He would be on my list for my 'Last Supper'. The trouble is, the public impression is that he only opens his mouth to change feet. If he really is to stand a chance of pitching Livingstoke out of what he clearly regards as his job-for-life, he really must give some serious and swift attention to the hapless, hopeless impression he makes upon people. The lovable OE [Old Etonian, Old English] sheepdog puppy.
So, Iain, perhaps the point you should be stressing to the LCC is that - despite all evidence to the contrary - Boris is emphatically not a buffoon. Give evidence of his constituency work, his fiction and non-fiction, his tireless work-rate, his confidence and anything else that offsets the remorseless negativity of his Press portrayals. God knows whether they'll believe you, or whether it is already too late for anyone to take him seriously. Still, gie it a try and go down fighting.
Then, tomorrow, get Boris to sharpen his act up, put the worn-out "golly gosh lumme yaroo chaps" routine in concrete wellies and drop it decisively off Wapping Stairs and do himself [and his party] justice in the way he acts.
boris will win unless he listens to the hard core right wingers and dog whistlers that he is collecting around him
Gary from Stoke
Would you like to back your 'no chance of winning' with a little wager at odds to reflect Boris' rank outsider status.
Nominate your charity and the sum.
I think it's not "Can Boris Win?" but "Why Would Boris Lose?"
- tendency to put his foot in his mouth before engaging his brain (Liverpool, Portsmouth)
- widely known to have had, and lied about, multiple affairs
- accused Macpherson Inquiry of "hysteria"
- supported the Iraq War
- supported Section 28
- opposed to minimum wage legislation when introduced
And, I might be wrong about this one, but I have to really strain to think of former journalists who have gone on to high political office. Other than Gordon Brown and his stint at Scottish Television. And the first premier in Quebec committed to separation, Rene Levesque.
Ask him how he can claim to want to encourage the meeting of Kyoto targets when he opposed it's ratification.
Or whether playstations are the greatest menace to civilisation
Iain
Ten reasons why Boris can’t and won’t win:
1. The majority of the electorate aren’t impressed by Etonians – however clever.
2. Boris has a moral fragility which can and will be exploited (Petsy was a mistake old man).
3. Ken has a very long track record of commitment to London – Boris is a carpet-bagging arrivist.
4. Ken is seriously clever and not to be under-estimated – he is also ruthless.
5. It isn’t about likeability, telegenicity or any of the rest of the frippery – it’s about who’s best for London.
6. Boris has never run anything in the public sector; Ken has created the world’s greatest city (or will claim so!).
7. 7/7
8. London 2012
9. Ken the independent man – no party apparatchik he!
10. Better trains (delivered); better traffic conditions (delivered); a confident delightful city which doesn’t need Boris’s effete hands screwing it up…
Certain things worry me. some things scare the **** out of me. Boris as Mayor of London is one of them. Boris is little more than the Duke of Edinburgh, Junior. An accident prone, Public School, charmless idiot. If by some incredible mishap he was elected, I would imagine that having somehow insulted his hosts at the Beijing Olympics, he would be forced to resign within three months.
Iain, I may not share your politics, but I've always credited you with a little common sense. I'm not pretending that Livingstone is great, but he's managed 8 years without any really idiotic mistake.
We all know, deep down, that Boris wouldn't make eight weeks. If the Tories want to win a GE in 2009 or 2010 just pray Boris doesn't win!
Are you back now, Iain? How did it go? Magic :)
Well Martin, Livingstone sure as hell has insulted me by stealing my taxes and wasting them on the Olympics, on Bob Kiley, on encouraging vile and excessive housing schemes, on ever-growing bureaucracy, on lavish offices in Brussels, Moscow etc, on self-congratulatory leaflets, on bendy buses, on dodgy bag carriers and spurious community schemes ... even LibDem Paddick would be a better bet than the current Mayor from Hell.
London has the worst infrastructure of any European capital.
There are better roads around Brussels, Paris or Amsterdam, the Moscow Metro is cleaner, there's better public transport in Berlin, other capitals recycle more and it's cheaper to live in any of them.
Over the last ten years, the disparity has only widened.
Ken's tenure has been marked by an abnegation of responsibility for the actual functioning of the city while the focus is entirely on minority interest groups.
Congestion charges? What other European city fines the public for its own short investment in infrastructure?
Buncefield? Mainline stations closing? Nothing to do with us, according to Ken. These places just happen to be in London.
The LDA is just one big New Labour Sleazefest, as was the Dome, as will be the Games. Check out the ODA (Olympic Delivery Authority) and its remit (para 11) which includes buying land - including compulsory purchase, property and granting rights and franchises. Talk about a license to pig out.
http://www.london-2012.co.uk/ODA/
Tessa 'Berlusconi pays my mortgage' Jowell's 'Legacy Games' will still not mean a London taxi can cover more miles in an hour than a horse drawn cab of 100 years ago. (Average is lowest in Europe.)
If Boris can't find enough ammunition to throw at Ken then he doesn't deserve to win. The sxxx is out there by the shovelful.
It astounds me how anyone could accuse Boris of idiocy. Evidently they've never read one of his books, if any for that matter.
Secondly several of you seem to have some beef with his education. I thought politics was about ability, not jealousy.
Plus there's the fact that Boris is actually from a fairly modest background himself, and only went to Eton on a scholarship (which he got by virtue of his ability). So he's both ruling-class and from humble origins, which if you think about it shows the genius of this country's elite; its openness to talent.
I don't know why I just defended him given that I'm supporting Paddick, but I'm beholden to no man and I speak my mind freely.
I hope he does. How anyone can support that Livingstone person is beyond me.
Can someone explain to me why people vote for him apart from self interest.
Fancy allowing Ken another four years? Well. if you do, he is poised to toll every A-road from the edge of Greater London to the centre. The silver cameras have been erected (yes, they also cover the Low Emission Zone, but this is two-for-one infrastructure).
Try this extract from a letter to TFL from the London Association of Councils.
‘London Councils Response to the consultation on the Proposed Transport for London (Supplemental Toll Provisions) Bill’.
‘London Councils is concerned that traffic may be diverted from GLA roads onto borough roads should tolls be imposed on the GLA roads. Therefore, the London Councils would like to see proper consultation with all boroughs as to which roads TfL wish to toll so that both TfL’s and boroughs’ network management duties under the Traffic Management Act 2004 can be properly discharged before any toll order is formally published.’
What's alarmingly called GLA roads are arterial routes which have been handed over to GLA/TFL control, regardless of local councils may want. This tolls bill has now been passed by parliament, by the way.
The tolling - using a windscreen mounted charge card - will apply in both directions, both in and out of the capital.
Don't say you weren't warned......
Absolute tosh, Paddy
1. The majority of the electorate aren’t impressed by Etonians – however clever. Says you - 18 Prime Ministers says otherwise.
2. Boris has a moral fragility which can and will be exploited (Petsy was a mistake old man). Want me to list the Labour MPs who have been shagging around?
3. Ken has a very long track record of commitment to London – Boris is a carpet-bagging arrivist. No, Ken has a long track record of commitment to Ken, and anything that will get Ken more power, money and air time for his sickening views.
4. Ken is seriously clever and not to be under-estimated – he is also ruthless. A scholarship to Eton would suggest someone is seriously clever, don't you think? Stalin was also pretty ruthless, and look how that turned out.
5. It isn’t about likeability, telegenicity or any of the rest of the frippery – it’s about who’s best for London. Just as well it isn't about likeability, because Ken is just about the most dislikeable person on the planet.
6. Boris has never run anything in the public sector; Ken has created the world’s greatest city (or will claim so!) Yes, the last 2000 years of London's history are irrelevant, as only Ken has done anything worthwhile. I happen to think the Congestion Charge is a far greater achievement than Westminster Palace or Tower Bridge...
7. 7/7 You mean the murder of 52 victims by people praised by certain individuals Ken likes to hang around with and give our money to?
8. London 2012 Which Ken supported when it was popular, and wrote a blank cheque to pay for it. Now the price has gone up and the logo is rubbish, Ken is suddenly on the side of the taxpayer again.
9. Ken the independent man – no party apparatchik he! I'd take a man who is loyal to a party and a set of ideals over one loyal purely to his own preservation.
10. Better trains (delivered); better traffic conditions (delivered); a confident delightful city which doesn’t need Boris’s effete hands screwing it up. All hail Ken! You want a job or something? So confident and delightful, in fact, that record numbers of teenagers are being murdered in the streets. According to Ken, that's all Thatcher's fault.
Are you back, Iain?
I can see why so many people think Paddy Briggs is a tosser! Get a life man! Livingstone is scum, and that's that! always has been and always will be!
Dear Mr Paddy Briggs.
I always thought you were a plonker. Now I know it.
I don't think I shall bother to contribute in future. We have asked you if you're back but even if you didn't do well at the debate
you could do us the courtesy of replying.
Yes I am back, but in vase you hadn't noticed I have been busy with matters related to Peter Hain. See the latest post.
I shall blog about the Boris event tomorrow morning and also give my view on the ITV mayoral debate which is on TV now.
A complete waste of time talking about Hain. Like the rest of the Labour lot, he will get away with it.
It's so much more important to talk
about Boris and build him up to be a credible candidate which we know he is but others remain to be convinced.
Livingstone is a dangerous fantacist who doesn't know where reality starts or ends. Boris is also a fantacist, but one who knows precisely which bit is the serious stuff, and which part is the joke.
Boris is the perfect answer to Livingstone's mixing up of realities, corruption with idealism, Islamist homophobia with gay rights, humour with matters of deadly concern. He's a curiosity of British politics that only survived so long by being of use to the Blair 'lie factory'.
It's time the lot of these New Labour hangers-on were swept away.
Boris looks like a scruffy fat rabbit, which can't be helping. Some-one give him a decent hair-cut!
As far as policies go, "Bugs" seems to restrict himself to safe cycle routes for North London School-children and the extension of tuck-shop opening hours.
Not good.
@ doc.
Were you there and can you give us an update.
By the silence elsewhere, I reckon Boris didn't come out of it well.
Firstly, I'm not a Londoner.
The impression I have of Boris is that he cuts corners to avoid working too hard. That he's not really serious, that he doesn't really care if he wins this election. That it's all a game, and he doesn't understand that people have real problems. There is nothing that he is fighting for, there is nothing that makes him really angry.
Also, I cannot be bothered to put in the effort to work out the meaning of his convoluted sentences.
I would like to see what he can do if he puts in real effort. I am not a big fan of Ken.
Scott redding said...
And, I might be wrong about this one, but I have to really strain to think of former journalists who have gone on to high political office.
How about Winston Churchill?
КАЛИНИНГРАД said...
"Buncefield? Mainline stations closing? Nothing to do with us, according to Ken. These places just happen to be in London."
Buncefield is in Hertfordshire; about 30 miles from central London.
Which mainline stations in London are closing?
Doctor
I saw most of it on the TV, so I wasn't there. He would benefit enormously from keeping calmer, as his success rather depends on the "time for change", and allowing the newt fancier to lose it, rather than using bluster and faux anger.
Boris' intellect is terribly obscured, which is a shame, but is certainly fixable. By him.
@ doc
Thanks for this. I didn't realise that it was on TV. I'm in the wilds of the far north of Scotland but I'm very interested in Boris as
I think he's an intelligent man who hides his intelligence very well.
Doctor -
No doubt Cameron will be pleased that such debates are confined to local television, for the time being at least.
Still a long way to go, and BJ is surprisingly buoyant in the polls nevertheless.
How very sad that "Johnny Norfolk" and "red Ken's dirty secret" think that they add to their arguments by personally abusing me - despite Iain's request to keep it polite. I won't retaliate in kind....
David. You are politer - just calling my post "tosh" - but at least saying why. You are wrong in just about everything you say - bile and prejudice. Pretty sad too...
Dear Mr Briggs
I do not normally insult people and I do not like it myself, But after reading your post I was just lost for words (comming from a secondary modern and all that.)
I just cannot believe that you cannot see through somebody like Livingstone, again I am lost for words.
Mr Dale knows I do not normally insult people apart from him, but there are times in life when only the f word will do.
I hope I dont sound to much like a plonker.
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