Thursday, November 01, 2007

Alex Deane: Report from the Aussie Election Day 18


There’s no hiding it. Yesterday was a bad day. There were three main reasons for this:

- Tony Abbott publicly abused a dying man
- Tony Abbott turned up half an hour late to his own debate.
- Tony Abbott audibly swore at his debate opponent.

Tony Abbott is the Health Minister. All this also resulted in no media coverage for our $400 million hospitals plan. We will be hoping that the focus today shifts from Tony Abbott and back onto policy. Or, indeed, anything else.


Anonymous said...

How right you are Alex and the polls in Friday's press will be grim reading for you. Abbott would not have survived past yesterday if Howard was in a strong position, which he is not.

A couple of other matters.

Neither Leader is campaigning in the ultra marginal seats but ones that need about a 5% swing. This must mean the Rudd is home and dry and Howard is shoring up his vote.

Secondly next weeks interest rate decision is the pivotal moment of the campaign.

Unless you know something I do not this election is over, but there are those events dear boy.

However what all this means for the UK is good news. It gives cause to the theory that tired governments, whatever the economic conditions, get thrown out, so long as there is a plausible alternative.

Anonymous said...

The important thing is that the Coalition only needs about 48% of the vote to keep office; the latest polls are suggesting that they have 45/46% of the vote, which is a significant shortening of the lead that the ALP held at the beginning of the campaign.

Howard in the first comment might well speculate that the government will change because they are focussing on shoring up their vote; but I suspect they know that they only need to hold on to most of their seats to win. They can lose 16 (of 87) and still retain office.

I believe they can, and will, win again.

Anonymous said...

You have to say, that is a pretty spectacular day's work

Anonymous said...

Ian has a point and may well be right. It is said that 25% make up their minds in the last week of the campaign.

At present I cannot see Howard turning it around unless Rudd slips up badly.

M. Hristov said...

Oh dear, oh dear. John Prescott was an amateur compared to Abbott. The “Aussie” press love these little dramas. I remember when they were all after Paul Keating for allegedly signing a bank note, which is a criminal offence in Australia. However, these chain of events, involving Abbott, points to a more widespread malaise in the Howard camp. Disciplined election machines do not allow these sorts of things to happen. The accident prone are hidden away (sorry Olly Letwin) not allowed on T.V. to debate with their rivals.

Sea Shanty Irish said...

Alex, have been critical o' your previous postings on grounds o' bias.

Today's post makes up fer it: yer realism AND outrage do you credit. And you still get to be biased when you want. Only now will be a wee bit more persuasive.

And it ain't over yet by a long shot fer yer side, on both sides o' the equator; the learned comments above make that very clear.