Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Neck on the Block Time

OK, so here's my predicted Con-Lib Cabinet. I hope to do better than my election predictions, where I only got 6/20!

Prime Minister: David Cameron
Deputy Prime Minister: Nick Clegg
Chancellor: Ken Clarke
Chief Secretary: Vince Cable
Foreign Secretary: William Hague
Home Secretary: David Davis
Business/DTI: George Osborne
Leader of the House: Michael Gove
Health: Andrew Lansley
Education: David Laws
Work & Pensions: Liam Fox
Scotland: Danny Alexander
Wales: Cheryl Gillan
Environment, Food & Rural Affairs: Nick Herbert
Energy & Climate Change: Greg Clark
Transport: Philip Hammond
Leader of the House of Lords: Lord Strathclyde
Chief Whip: Patrick McLoughlin
Defence: Lord Ashdown
Culture: Jeremy Hunt
Cabinet Office: Theresa May
Party Chairman: Sayeeda Warsi
Local Government: Eric Pickles
Justice Secretary: Chris Huhne
International Development: Simon Hughes
Northern Ireland: Owen Paterson

I think one of the key appointments is Home Secretary. Predicting David Davis will be seen by some as wishful thinking on my part. However, it makes sense if you think about it. Reaching out to the right, but at the same time the LibDems would be pleased by the appointment due to his record on civil liberties. If Davis isn't appointed I suspect the job will go to Michael Gove. He has a very different attitude to civil liberties but few Conservatives would complain about him being appointed to such a high profile position. He has fought a brilliant election campaign.

39 comments:

Council House Tory said...

Gove, of all the shadow cabinet, has been the star of the last few months. He deserves rewards.

pete-s said...

Iain, you have not mentioned the Speaker. Ming Campbell?

john said...

Iain, Hope you get selected for a seat next time.

TheMatureStudent said...

I hope that Cameron doesn't move Laws into Education. Gove always comes across as having a real passion about what could be achieved there and I think he would do a great job there.

trevorsden said...

SKY/BBC is saying Osborne is to be Chancellor.

Ashdown in defence? Ah well ,, lets hope not.

denverthen said...

If you are right, the loss of Gove from education is a tragedy. It was the Tories' best policy by a country mile. Not only that, but it was exactly the policy that our schools desperately needed. And now it won't happen.

And Ashdown in defence?? I suppose that's the price of a coalition. (Yes, I know. He was SAS. What difference does that make? So was David Davis).

That price is starting to look way too high, deficit crisis or not.

Paddy said...

Would be tough on Gove not to have a chance to implement his education plans as it was one of the most positive areas of policy for the party.

Would love Clarke to be Chancellor (and would be quite keen on DD as Home Sec). Danny Alexander as Scottish Sec would be smart given the lack of penetration the Tories have there - and Alexander is at ease with a bottle of Irn Bru and a deep-fried pizza.

I wonder if Clegg would want a portfolio as well as being Dep PM? It's a bit Prescotty just to have a title without a role.

Interesting times...

Andrew Ian Dodge said...

Would like to see John Wittingdale as Culture Minister, and hope Clarke is no where near the cabinet. Surely you going to have enough federasts in the Cabinet with the L-Ds why add any of your own?

Daedalus said...

Now that we are "in" I hope that they have a repeal act and get rid of a whole raft of Labours laws. They can start with all of the reductions in our civil rights. Protests back outside the Palace of Westminster anyone.

Daedalus

IvorBiggun said...

Cameron will leave David Davis on the back benches - the man's a loose cannon - Cameron knows that and won't want him back at any price - wishful thinking on the part of Iain Dale(y) once more.

smileyman said...

Ashdown and Hughes won't be anywhere near the cabinet. They won't be forgiven for their briefings yesterday.

Gove will get Education. I wouldn't be surprised to see Laws as Home Sec.

Despatch Box said...

Prime Minister: David Cameron
Deputy Prime Minister: Nick Clegg
Chancellor: George Osborne
Chief Secretary: Vince Cable
Foreign Secretary: William Hague
Home Secretary: Chris Huhne
Business/DTI: Ken Clarke
Leader of the House: Michael Gove
Health: Andrew Lansley
Education: David Laws
Work & Pensions: Philip Hammond
Scotland: Danny Alexander
Wales: Cheryl Gillan
Environment, Food & Rural Affairs: Nick Herbert
Energy & Climate Change: Greg Clark
Transport: Don Foster
Leader of the House of Lords: Lord Strathclyde
Chief Whip: Patrick McLoughlin
Defence: Liam Fox
Culture: Jeremy Hunt
Cabinet Office: Theresa May
Party Chairman: Sayeeda Warsi
Local Government: Eric Pickles
Justice Secretary: Michael Howard
International Development: Caroline Speman
Northern Ireland: Owen Paterson

Eoghan said...

I'd be surprised if Ashdown got defence. Plenty of Tories would blow up if a Lib Dem got defence. Education will go to a yellow as the parties broadly agree, but I think Gove may get something big like Home Sec.

BrianSJ said...

Theresa May! Hope you are wrong about that.

Robin Horsley said...

I suspect that Gove will get Ed and George Osborne will get Chancellor with David Laws in the Treasury..

FX Man said...

Thank you and goodnight.

http://fxbites.blogspot.com/2010/05/happy-man-be-his-dole-say-i-henry-1vth.html

Gerry57 said...

'I agree with Nick' backfired for Gordon in the end.

Nowrin said...

I love your pick of Chancellor. Would have preferred Gove for Education though, he comes across as very well informed and passionate.

Robin Horsley said...

Hmm. Looks like Gove is not getting Ed now. Not good. I think he may not have a job at all. Needs some time with his family

DespairingLiberal said...

I wish it would be David Davis - he's a very good guy and a heavyweight.

Not sure you are right about Osborne though - haven't they already said he will be Chancellor after all? Perhaps, as Monty Python's Election Special once said, that was just a piece of gossip.

Incredibly cack-handed reportage tonight on both the BBC and Sky. You would think the Beeb at least would have an idea of the ceremonial protocols, but they got mired in laughable confusions over the Kissing of Hands. Still, it reminded us all of why Heseltine, despite his many talents, is an oddball and someone whose focus is somehow never quite where it should be.

It was very, very strange seeing a Conservative at Number 10 after all these years.

No doubt some of you will be triumphalist on this blog - if you are tempted, remember, you didn't win the election. You are there because the LibDems agreed to put you there. Bear that in mind.

denverthen said...

So you were right. Gove out. Fox out. Laws and Ashdown (!) in.

And on Sky just now you rolled over, Mr Dale, like some sort of well-tamed puppy, to that Libdem blogging harridan who basically said she expected the Libdems to stop the Tories when they disagreed with them and for the Tories to roll over, just like you did, when the Libdems came up with some sort of policy suggestion, however half-baked.

What price power, eh? And how fleeting the moment of joy.

Having heard how this is developing, I can't see this marriage lasting very long. Can you?

Valleys Mam said...

Oh no not Gillian pleassssssssssseeee
How about Jonathan Evans,plenty of experience,Welsh and much more in tune

trevorsden said...

The BBC at al are all dewy eyed about Browns resignation speech and his self serving address to his party.

Iain Martin points out the following
"This was not a national tragedy.

What might become a national tragedy is the national debt. It sits there, squatting at the centre of the national life, at almost £800 billion and growing. Even on the Treasury’s own optimistic forecasts, and factoring in deep but still inadequate spending cuts, it will rocket to £1.4 trillion by 2014. ... This is the tarnished inheritance David Cameron shares with Nick Clegg. "

Brown made a reputation for himself and ruined Blair's 'progressive' efforts by spending money he did not have, that the economy cannot afford.
he has ruined the economy pursuing his own aggrandisement. We should not forget that.

denverthen said...

Despairing (or should be 'Jammy Loser') Liberal wrote, triumphantly: "No doubt some of you will be triumphalist on this blog - if you are tempted, remember, you didn't win the election"

Neither did you, mate. And just remember who built you up - and can kick you straight out again and still govern the country (properly).

I'm beginning to think this was a very, very bad idea.

HampsteadOwl said...

Can't see Ashdown or any other Lib Dem getting hold of defence given differences on Trident

Wyrdtimes said...

Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland? Don't they have their own parliament and assemblies?

What about England? The English deserve equal funding, equal recognition and equal representation.

I hope the Conservatives don't forget who voted for them.

Lauchlan McLean said...

In the top ten of things Cameron must do is engineer the sacking of Cathy Ashdon from Europe. If he does that he will win hundreds of disenchanted UKIPers back into their natural home. Lets try and persuade him to get more Eurosceptic.

Toque said...

Spare a thought for Brown.

Victor, NW Kent said...

Iain - you may be an old buddy of bluff Ken Clarke but he was never going to get the Treasury again. He is a cheery orator but short on detail and really rather lazy.

Osborne is an intellect who has made a considerable study of his brief. He may find a lot of skeletons in the cupboards at No.11 but he will cope very well.

David Davis cannot readily be forgiven for his self-indulgent gesture. I say that as one who made small donation to mid-term re-election campaign. I like David a lot but he made a foolish mistake.

Michael Gove is destined for great things - education is not the compass of his abilities.

Iain Dale said...

I'm not a buddy of Ken Clarke at all. In fact I dont think I have spoken to him in 7 years.

Chris said...

It's depressing that some people are undermining this already. Hopefully they'll assign a minder to Bill Cash to keep him away from the cameras. The poor chap is stuck in 1995 - or is it 1945? I'm optimistic that this really could be a new type of government. We appear to have seen more rational political debate in the last few days than in the last 13 years. It's given the Tories and the LibDems an opportunity to ditch some of their nuttier policies and keep the ones that had resonance on the doorsteps. This is high risk for both parties but there are also opportunities for both. For the LibDems it will provide them with experience of government that will massively increase their credibility and stature. For the Conservatives there is an opportunity to complete Cameron's detoxification of the brand. There are some tough times ahead and I think there will be far more acceptance of some of those decisions if Cameron, Osbourne, Clegg and Cable are all explaining together to the public why they are necessary. Maybe those of us who fight the Conservative and LibDem cause in the blogosphere need to follow the example of our leaders and try to adopt a more constructive tone! Steady on now...

Ashley said...

I sincerely hope that Sayeeda Warsi doesn't move away from communities. Now that Eric Ollerenshaw has been elected to office, they have the communities dream team in Parliament.

Nobody else can bring what Lady Warsi does to the role.

denverthen said...

Chris said: "Maybe those of us who fight the Conservative and LibDem cause in the blogosphere need to follow the example of our leaders and try to adopt a more constructive tone!"

Hmm. Fair enough. (But they started it ;)

Mr. A said...

Yes - I was geting so into thinking about the "Big Jobs" (Defence, Home, Foreign, Chancellor) I forgot about Warsi. Very capable politician and does a good job where she is.

Trevor Malcolm, Portsmouth, Hampshire said...

Poor, inaccurate election predictions, you claim, sir? Surely not?!

-----------------------------------------------------




Don’t you recall over 9 months ago (on Saturday, 1st August 2009), your twin-prediction for the year 2010?

One, that NuLabour wouldn’t win the election, and two, that Mr Alastair Campbell's beloved Burnley Football Club would get relegated at the end of their first season in the Premiership

Now, beat that for accuracy, see? See how well you worked it, sir?

Today's news has further mirrored what you predicted. I fear much chagrin chez les Campbells of Gospel Oak, Hampstead, until his new book, "Prelude to Power" is published

Surprised an under-prepared Kirsty Wark on BBC Newsnight (Tuesday) let him broadcast such a blatant plug for its publication

But hey, I guess anyone could predict AC would do that

Wouldn't it be gracious of you, if you emailed your Facebook friend, Mr Campbell, some words of consolation? Help him wipe away those sad tears of NuLabour despair

Words like “ … Your Royal Highness, Sir Iain here, if you please, laddie; just a reminder of my twin-prediction on Saturday, 1st August, last year, remember?

Both came true, as predicted. Beat that, chum" - you know, tactful, diplomatically-worded, I'm sure he'd love you for it

Or " ... Blessed be AC, always blessed be, in genuine friendliness, from your favourite Tory crystal-ball gazer, Mr Dale of Tunbridge Wells ...”

Yeah, try that. Oh, but without falling off your chair backwards, laughing, as you do it, if you please

TM -------

-------------

Duncan said...

Ashdown would make more sense for NI, wouldn't he?

Duncan said...

Why Paddy for defense? We know they're sticking with Fox now anyway but why would they junk him for a Liberal peer who was a major proponent of the Lib-Lab deal being the one to shoot for?

Not Simon for International Development - he knows nothing about it. He cares about things like housing and justice for immigrants. Put Rory Stewart there. What else is he in Parliament for?

Though it turns out you're right, why is Danny the Scotland sec when two other people had been shadowing that office? I had him down as minister without portfolio for Nick.

I'm thinking Huhne for environment, unless you can think of an obvious party political reason the Tories would want to keep that.

Interesting thought on David Davis for Home Sec.

Duncan said...

I don't think Ming will be speaker. He'd take the job and they'd be willing to give him it but it would be too much in-fighting, too early on in the coalition's life to unseat Bercow. Especially as we (LDs) helped to put him there.

Village Bookworm said...

Agreed with Valleys Mam. Please not Cheryl. Apart fromnot being from a Welsh seat, she was a liability in the campaign. Jonathan Evans has the experience if we want someone consensual, David Jones if we want an actual Tory!