On my way home last night I heard details of the Times/Populus poll which apparently showed Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck at 38% in the marginal seats. Except that it didn't.
All the media reporting I saw gave the impression that this poll was a poll of marginals. All marginals. Only in the small print did we discover that it didn't include LibDem marginals, or the top 50 Con-Lab marginals. It was a poll of the Con-Lab marginals from 51-150. Knowing that, it reads rather more encouragingly for the Conservatives as it shows a 6.7 swing to the Conservatives since 2005. Labour is down from 45.3 to 38.2% while the Tories are up to 37.6 from 31.4. This would enable them to win 97 Labour held seats, leaving them needing to win more than 20 LibDem seats to gain an overall majority.
What this poll confirms, despite the way it has been portrayed, is that the Tories continue to perform better in the battleground seats than elsewhere. Which is exactly what they need to do.