Saturday, January 16, 2010

Tories Up 4% in New Poll

A ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent on Sunday brings rather good news for the Conservatives, putting them four points up on the previous poll on 22 December. This would give Cameron a majority of around 70.

Con 42% (+4)
Lab 29% (-)
LD 19% (-)
Others 10% (-4) Including Green 3%, Ukip 2%, BNP 2%


Interestingly, and perhaps worryingly, the Tories are 20% ahead among men but among women the lead is only 6%. That needs some explanation, but I am damned if I can think of one. There are several otheer questions in the poll, but this one naturally leapt out at me.

Nick Clegg is a better political leader than either David Cameron or Gordon Brown

Agree 21%
Disagree 64%
Don’t know 14%


Surprisingly, fully 43% of Lib Dem voters disagree with this statement and fewer than half - 48% - agree. 52% of 2005 Lib Dem voters disagree too, as do 51% of Lib Dem identifiers. That will cause a shudder or two at Cowley Street.

UPDATE: Richard Willis has details of a new Yougov poll, which shows the Tory lead unchanged at 9%.

15 comments:

Norfolk Blogger said...

I don't think Lib Dems will lose any sleep. I think you know very well that Lib Dems leaders have historcally always needed a General Election campaign in order to bed in, due in great part to the fact that the Lib Dems are so excluded from the main stream news.

Tachybaptus said...

Mary Portas, writing in Today's Daily Telegraph, has something to say about Cameron's lack of appeal to women:

'It’s interesting that polls show women are less impressed by Cameron than men. My guess is that he’s not authoritative – dare I say, manly – enough. These are difficult times and he has the disadvantage of looking very youthful, so he needs to counteract that by being a bit more bullish. Now more than ever, we need an Alpha Male.

'Unfortunately, Cameron is very reminiscent of Tony Blair ...'

Scrobs... said...

After all these years, I seems bizarre that the Lib Dems are still around.

What on earth are they trying to do?

Zach Johnstone said...

The Tories' lead is encouraging, but hasn't been gained as a result of people taking a dim view of the Labour coup attempt. I always feel that votes taken from minority parties are a lot more prone to swinging back in the other direction just as quickly as they were gained, purely for the reason that these people do not feel at home with either of the two main parties and so are perfectly happy to relinquish their support if they see fit.

trevorsden said...

YouGov have a 9% lead.

I think polls are not really picking up the 3 party system. We are in a confused voting pattern right now.

If LibDems had any sense they would be pushing to take the left of centre vote and undermine labour, but as ever they want to be all things to all men.

Prodicus said...

Douglas Murray rightly refers to 'the second rater who leads our third party'.

For an example of the truth of this description, you may care to read this article in Standpoint.

The Liberal Democratic Party is neither Liberal not democratic but a principle-free collection of vain power-seekers who will say whatever they think you want to hear in order to steal your vote on a false prospectus. Tenth-raters all, who can agree on almost nothing beyond wanting this country to be governed by foreign bureaucrats, led by a third-rater whose soul still belongs to the foreign bureaucrats who formerly employed him.

Mr Murray is too kind.

prj45 said...

"...but among women the lead is only 6%. That needs some explanation, but I am damned if I can think of one"

6% of women want to vote for a party that wants them chained to a stake in the kitchen floor? I've never understood that myself.

hilary said...

Check out "The Outlaw Gordon Brown" @ youtube.com/thisisjohnnyblack

oldmortality said...

I wonder how many watching Rory Stewart's programme on TE Lawrence will have realised that he is the Conservative PPC for Penrith and the borders. He is just the sort of person that we need in parliament; someone with a real career behind him and genuine intellectual credentials.
If Cameron wants to get his message across, he needs to use people like him in contrast to the aparatchiks of the Labour Party who have gone straight from university. to special adviser, to MP, to minister, without ever brushing against the real world.

Joe Public said...

"Interestingly, and perhaps worryingly, the Tories are 20% ahead among men but among women the lead is only 6%. That needs some explanation, but I am damned if I can think of one. "

Harriet Harman.

She's all for equality for women.

Mark M said...

Could be because the weighted samples of men and women are 320 and 302 respectively, giving margins of errors of around 5.5%. Men 45%, Women 39%, well within margin of error

Conand said...

prj45 said...

"6% of women"

Its the lead amongst women in that poll, not the total. You've never really understood anything.

troymolloy said...

UKIP polling less than the Greens? Crazy times or dodgy poll.

Hermeneuticals said...

The 15 point gender gap is notorious in American politics. The poll needs to ask why they support who they do. Correlation may then reveal the reason.

prj45 said...

Conand said... "Its the lead amongst women in that poll, not the total. You've never really understood anything."

Well, you know what I mean.

Interesting that you attack me for my tenuous grasp on statistics, but not for my perception of conservative misogyny!