Monday, November 23, 2009

Tories 17% Ahead Says New Poll

Well that 6 point Tory lead lasted a long time, didn't it? A new poll tonight puts the Tory lead at 17%. Labour is down to 22%, only one point ahead of the LibDems. What does Downing Street private polling say about that, Mr Macintyre?

PoliticalBetting has more HERE.

21 comments:

Jimmy said...

Angus who?

quietzapple said...

This is another poll which relies on the bias brought by respondents who claim to have voted other than how they actually did in 2005.

The Ipsos/MORI Poll did not have what may well be this defect at a time when many people are disgusted by The Sun and its pro tory campaign.

And, of course, the previous poll, and the other one carried out at the same time, both showed a swing to Labour.

quietzapple said...

Notable that the Ipsos/MORI poll was publicised a week after completion of its fieldwork, while this one was published as a propaganda exercise hours after completion of its fieldwork.

I wonder if any other factors here are . . . .

. . . F u - u - u - u nny . . .

sunonmars said...

That 6% poll was a deliberate massaged Brown booster, nothing else.

We all new, a snacth of new polls should out tonight and tomorrow, i guess it will be confirmed and Mori will be looking like a bunch of twits.

trevorsden said...

Newsnight will be covering Climategate...

39-22-21. Do we believe it? Well does it matter? If people think about it, engage brains, then the overall picture of polls is of no headway at all being put together by labour.

MORI? The headline result was only based on 450 people and their methodology creates huge swings. A couple of months ago they were giving leads of 17.

John Google said...

"The fieldwork for this 2,000 sample online poll"

online poll.

There are some people who don't use the internet you know???

Irene said...

Where's Mystic Mac when you need him?

mikeyfff said...

But will it make the news?

sarah said...

I have to admit I laughed long and hard when I saw that poll! Brilliant news - and what a prat it makes Mucca look. He really is a man of straw.

no longer anonymous said...

I doubt Labour are doing as badly as this poll says. That said, participants are asked how they would vote in their constituency so it maybe the result of Labour supporters planning to vote Lib Dem tactically.

quietzapple - what you're trying to say is only polls that show Labour catching up are trustworthy because that suits your particular agenda of trying to wind up the Tories. Grow up.

quietzapple said...

How stupid do you take them?

Do they not understand the different bases of these polls?

Nope.

Unsworth said...

@ Sarah

Man of Straw, more likely.

quietzapple said...

Quietzapple
"Add Ipsos MORI poll 2 the mix changes figures slightly Cons lead 11.4 points still enough for a Cons maj over 30 seats http://url.ie/2y2d

oh and:

Accusation not at all true.

Anyone with a brain who is grown up can see:

a) difference in methodology of the Ipsos/MORI poll and the others (apart from fact some are net only based like the Angus one)

& b) The reason why Ipsos/MORI may well be more reliable at the moment.

never mind about the brain perhaps.

Jimmy said...

Bear in mind that this pollster has a track record in UK political polling dating back almost six weeks.

Tom said...

Ah, but MacIntyre was talking about the trends. Of course with a trend like this, Labour will be polling at minus 37 by this time next week.

quietzapple said...

Current trend is tory support will be minus 10.7 zillion brain cells by tues noon. Online.

Malcolm Redfellow said...

It probably reads better in the original Canadian (or whatever).

Is this the same organisation that feels qualified to tell us that Jamaicans believe gays and lesbians are "different" from the rest of the population? Or that the US splits 52-40 over same-sex marriage? Or that 46% of Israelis believe homosexuality is an "aberration"? Hmm ... no signs of any obsession there.

Equally obviously Politicalbetting have more loose cash than prudence ... or are desperate for the publicity given by sites such as this.

javelin said...

Ha, ha, ha.

Labour's last hope was a placebo effect.

quietzapple said...

Yes Malcolm, it is them.

One wonders who trains their interviewers here.

Are they members of the professional market research association, which used to be rather more picky than since the '80s? If not their effirts should not be published here as though they should be taken seriously.

Since YouGov many have climbed on the the latest online bandwagon of gold.

Chris said...

The purpose of the delayed release by The Guardian was to achieve an impact. It certainly did that as it was covered by all TV stations. Journalists have been misled to write reams about it. The only two places I have read Angus Reid's findings is in Iain's diary and UKpolling. One up for the Labour party and The Guardian I'm afraid to say.

Jules said...

if you're interested in a quick breakdown of the UK's online connectivity, it goes like this:

16.5m - 65% - of UK households have Internet access
14.1m - 56% - of UK households have broadband
1m - 5% - of households have no intention of ever going online
70% of over-65s have never used the Internet
100% of 16-24 year olds have used the Internet