political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
The ICM poll for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph is quite bizarre. It shows both Labour and the Tories down 4 points, with the LibDems up 6 to 22%. Is it a rogue? If not, what on earth can one attribute the rise of the LibDem vote to? Damned if I know!
If other polls show the Lib Dems back in the teens then we will know. There has certainly not been any major announcement by the Lib Dems to warrant any increase in support.
It could be the Snow and stay at home employees. Likely to be Liberals!
Another minor factor could be the LD school policy change - scrap the Child Trust Fund and use the money for class sizes. Lefties probably like that sort of thing! Interesting Cameron has been outlinning education this weekend!
It could be movement to the largest party in the country - the Apathetic Party. Loads and loads of people say 'they're all the same' so why not vote lib dem? What's to lose? Who cares anyway?
It probably is a bit soft but not many people are nerds like us - they rarely give a monkeys about policy announcements - all they know is they're being screwed without someone asking permission.
Perhaps it's not so much the Lib Dems doing anything, it's Labour just getting worse?
I can see Labour heading for an absolute massacre in 2010 (please let it be true!), with the toils of an election campaign revealing all the cracks for all to see. In which case, I see the Tories making monumental gains, with the Lib Dems also capitalising.
Perhaps the opposition benches are about to become somewhat split with Labour and the Lib Dems in a 60-40 split?
On the plus side in terms of a LD wipeout - this makes it very difficult for the LD's to target their scarce resources with such volitility! Some LD MP's who were being left to fend for themselves due to impending defeat may think they are in with a chance. Hopefully it will create inward pressure on the LD's and they will turn on themselves or put the resources in the wrong places and get wiped out!
Can't explain the Liberal gain,but here's a suggestion as to Tory loses - Caneron's attack on Brown for his "British jobs for British workers" speech.The main message many people will take from that is not that Brown is a hypocrite, but that the Tory's are against British jobs for British workers.
Not likely to be a vote winner and it reminds the electorate that the Tories are just as committed to the EU as New Labour.
This seems to be the most bizarre poll for a long, long time. It is impossible to see why the LibDems would gain any new followers and particularly why they should gain voters from the Tories.
"what on earth can one attribute the rise of the LibDem vote to?"
Carol Thatcher?
Perhaps people are terrified of another Labour government with Gordon Brown at the helm - and also of a conservative government who could still be very nasty. Both are equally terrifying for different reasons.
I find the polls getting increasingly bizarre. One week the Conservatives are 20 ahead of Labour then its down to 4 then week after their 13+ points ahead. Lib Dems were down to 12 now up to 20. Who on earth do the pollsters ask? With a little over a year to go until the big election, if you don't know who you are going to vote for by now then God help us all.
Silly season. Very silly season. Most of these polls for all their assumed precision are really faulty in one way or another. And their coverage underlines and redoubles the faultiness. Including on blogs. Though more importantly in proper media. Usually about 1000 people are consulted. Usually half of these or thereabouts won't say, don't know, say they won't vote, or are flibbety gibbets who choose one of these three categories to cover their embarrassment.
So we're down to 500 or there abouts. 17% of that figure is 85 people. 11% is 55 people. Just 30 people. Just remember there are 500 people not saying. And just remember too that there are a fair number of those who are saying who aren't actually expressing a real preference but rather are betting on the outcome.
The DK/WS/DV proportion reduces and reduces and reduces as a real, important election looms. Generally speaking these seem to be splitting strongly for the incumbents when they do opt back in.
Tony Sharp's point is a good one. The Lib Dems are gaining ground WITHOUT DOING ANYTHING. They lose ground when they DO ANYTHING!
Keep completely schtum and they could reach 20%. But they will never get to 35% that way.
However if they speak up - the only way to get any proper adherents instead of fellow fudgers is to speak up. That seems to generally REDUCE their poll. Unless it is for example a real contemporary issue where they either have or present themselves as having a unique point of view. Iraq from 2003 to the GE of 05 and beyond would be a case in point - even though far more LP MPs voted against the war than Libs the LP were also the incumbents making the terrible (in either sense) decision to go to war.
I've giving up looking at these commission polls for Lib Dems it's like the magnficent men in their fly machines. However, depends how much of that survey may have been in Scotland which I think would account for some upsewing but 6% is a bit much to purely be a Scottish bounce.
I agree with Dick of the impressive appendage - it's the apathetics what done it.
I've always wondered what the Libdums were for, apart from providing shelter from the real world. Or as an advert for why care in the community is not a good idea. Or as a collection point for the pretentious, intellectual snobs who no-one else would give the time of day to, and who invariably have their heads so far up their own backsides they can see daylight the other end.
And the people they elect - Thorpe, Ashdown, the Leader of the Scotch Drinking Party - what was his name? Oaten - a man you cannot even think of without reaching for the sick bag. Old Uncle Ming, proof positive of life after death. Lemsip Oatcake - what the hell is he for?
There is, perhaps, an argument for requiring an IQ test, prior to granting the right to vote; that argument is never more persuasive than when considering the Libdums.
Ms Canvas seems to be a case in point. I bet she even carries the Guardian in public.
Should you really be talking about IQ tests when this is how you describe yourself on Google blogger:
"I just poor Lithuanian Catholic boy, come to third world shithole call Innnnverrrrnessss in far Jock UberDarklands to serve period of penal servitude, also know as apprenticeship, to mean, bad-tempered, foul-mouthed, evil, cantankerous, tax dodging ole Polish plumber who wudnae know his O-ring from his ball-cock if not for me and the local Poly. Old bastard have no sense humour and is a bit too handy with the P45, hence I is ex."
"Silly season. Very silly season. Most of these polls for all their assumed precision are really faulty in one way or another. And their coverage underlines and redoubles the faultiness. Including on blogs. Though more importantly in proper media. Usually about 1000 people are consulted."
Mr Paul is correct !!!!
The answer tou nare looking for Mr Dale is 'methodology'... ICM have a methodology which favours the LibDems.
The point Mr Paul and all of us should bear in mind is that no matter how flawed the individual polls are - you can take ALL of them in to account and draw an opinion. That opinion is that faith in labour has slipped away.
The poll seems to imply that people think Darling should be sacked. Fair enough but it hides the point that Brown is really running the economy and if Brown sacks Darling then he really condemns himself.
Salmondnet may be right but I think not - Camerons attack was fairly clear, attacking Brown for misrepresentation (ie lying). And he should know that the LibDems are more in favour of the EU and thus foreign workers than the Tories - so can he go figure?
"I just poor Lithuanian Catholic boy, come to third world shithole call Innnnverrrrnessss in far Jock UberDarklands to serve period of penal servitude, also know as apprenticeship, to mean, bad-tempered, foul-mouthed, evil, cantankerous, tax dodging ole Polish plumber who wudnae know his O-ring from his ball-cock if not for me and the local Poly. Old bastard have no sense humour and is a bit too handy with the P45, hence I is ex."
That's funny.
The Independent, now there's a barrel of laughs. It's The Guardian on Mogadon.
I, for my sins, have a Pavlov's dog response to the Guardian and always buy it whenever in reach. I think Larry Eliot has been on the money from day 1 - I love Simon Hoggart, I'm a stoopid public servant and I can just about do the crosswords.
On Wednesdays they use to do an edit of one of their comment is free blogs, written by some nerdy dude and then abridged to cut out the troll flummery. T'was amusing lots and lots.
Other than that - Canvas likes to fight with people - prose police. She can be quite nice tho occasionally. She called Obamalama before the rest of us Draperphiles.
Calm down, dears, it's only an opinion poll! I love Labours' continued fall but the rest is nonsense. More likely a 3 point gain to Libs and Conservatives. Try Conservatives 47% Libs 18% Lab 27% Others 07% Summer 2010 49% 26% 19% 06%
Bizarre indeed. One’s first thought is that it’s a rogue poll - given recent trends. If accurate, however, it presages interesting times. A hung parliament starts looking again more possible.
Perhaps the oft-used phrase that Cameron hasn’t yet closed the deal is true? Perhaps the Tories are still thought of as the nasty party?
The Carol Thatcher business can’t have helped but remind people of the Tories’ nasty past - even if she has nothing official to do with the party.* There’s also been a great deal of right-wing triumphalism in the air which won’t have helped Cameron. It never pays to assume nor take the electorate for granted. They don’t like it.
I concur that it has to have been something negative against the Tories rather than anything positive for the Lib Dems - even if these polls generally underestimate Lib Dem GE performance.
I disagree with a comment that the voters “should” have made their minds up by now. They haven’t and nor should they have.
I am left crushed, desolated, ravaged and extirpated by the brutal, uncalled for savagery of your response.
I lie stricken on the field, mortally wounded, your dagger of disapprobation protruding from my back, perhaps never to dare raise my head on this site ever again.
The triumphalism thing may be true Simon - a lot of people get their vibes from blogs nowadays. The right-wingers, particularly the more nasty variety, have been in full-on Harry Enfield-style rahrah mode for the last few months and that will have an effect.
However, I think the most significant thing will have been a gradual increase in public visibility of the still very weak Tory front bench. As the media tend to move towards having them on more, we are treated to the depressing spectacles of messrs Osborne, Hague & Co. The voters probably like Cameron but the quality of his pre-Ken-Clarke staff is, to put it kindly, mixed.
I for one will be very happy if they go in to the general with Osborne as shadow chancellor, since every time he wistfully appears on TV with his silly attempts to sound less posh, his terrible misunderstandings of basic economic issues, inability to answer questions or even understand them properly - well, you get the picture. Distressing proof that simply having attended Eton is no guarantee of a sharp brain.
strapworld said... “At least it will end talk of a Lib Lab pact for a few days!”
I don’t know where you think you have heard such talk but it is ill-informed. No Lib Dem leader (least of all one as right-wing as Clegg) will prop up a Labour Government that is seen to have been rejected by the electorate. It just won’t happen. It’s a Lib Dem/Tory pact or nothing.
Given the improbability of the Tories ever agreeing to fix our bent and corrupt electoral system - it’ll be nothing. Minority government followed rapidly by a new GE is the most likely future in the unlikely event of a hung parliament.
There is an air within the public sector that ofcourse the Tories have to reduce spending, ofcourse they do. The problem is that so do Labour but they won't, can't, have neither incentive or desire to do so.
The wages in the public sector are fantastic, insulated - inflation proof, myriad, various and plenty!
Is it wrong for the masses of public sector employees (even those in a proper job because they know some gimp at the office will sort stuff) to fear the Tories.
The number of pointless jobs I've held, let alone applied for is ridiculous and costly.
The Tories can't sell economic ruin - they can't sell bullshit. Unfortunately however, that is where we are - on a cliff. Everyone knows it but until someone states to the public sector -
"Your pensions are too expensive - anyone under 45 - let's talk".
"Your wages are too high - how's about a 10% pay cut and job's a good un?"
"No new jobs for a bit eh?"
!(This is all on the assumption that people on benefit vote Labour which is potentially the most bullshit assumption)
Don't panic its just 1 poll. However if both big parties are down 4% it means nobody much likes either of them & the LDs are getting 3/4s of the "none of the above" votes. It could be their call for cutting income tax is working through but I don't think anybody bel;ieves that promise. It could just be that nobody thinks Labour are going to win & therefore those who vote mainly to stop the other lot are feeling free to go elsewhere.
All we can say is that Britain's politicians aren't offering anything that attracts people. Nothing new there then.
I am sorry - blatantly off topic, so please feel free to punish me accordingly - but given the current weather conditions I think this link about the IPCC is salutary.
http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC.htm
"The IPCC has manipulated ignorant politicians, the media and the public and been deceptive about its claims"
"IPCC review editors are not complying with the requirements of their role"
"revealed the dubious qualifications of many authors and contributors to the IPCC's WG II report"
"The evidence that has been supplied is based on unsound scientific methods and mathematics."
"Despite the numbers of persons involved, and the lengthy formal review procedures, the preparation of the IPCC Assessment Reports is far from being a model of rigor, inclusiveness and impartiality."
.. well - nothing. Although Derek Draper has now started the Labourlist blog.
Therefore, through using only deductive science based reasoning, it is clear that Monsieur Draper's activities have a positive effect on Liberal polling figures.
Congratulations to both Nick Clegg and Derek Draper for a job well done.
Clegg's questions at PMQs are always excellent. This week, over the noise of Labour and the Tories who were trying to drown him out, I think he wanted to know what Gordon was going to do about non-domiciled fat cats and Peers who didn't pay tax. A good question as usual. And as usual it wasn't answered.
DespairingLiberal said... “...a lot of people get their vibes from blogs nowadays.”
Well I can’t directly contradict you but I find that claim most improbable. But as you hint, if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less.
JMB said... “I find it hard to believe that "British jobs for British workers" would swing people to Liberal considering they are most pro-EU party.”
All three front benches and the Scot Nats are officially ‘pro-EU’ - despite the strange hoops Cameron has had to jump through to try to keep his party together on the matter.
Trevorsden. Of course I know that the LibDems are pro EU. I was offering an explanation for the Tory's loss of support, not for the LibDem gain.
In any case disgruntled voters are not always rational. Many Libdem voters do so because the LDs are not the other two major parties, not because they agree with (or in some cases even know of) their policies.
*big yawnnnn - can't be bothered to get popcorn out*
Simon Gardner said...
"... if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less."
Can't you come up with something
a)wittier b)more credible c)backed up with data c)and dare I say insightful?
ICM tend to give a higher vote share for the LibDems than other pollsters. Compared to actual election results, other pollsters tend to underestimate LibDem support. ICM are closer to the truth.
ICM's last poll showed an unexpected 3% drop in LibDem support. If we compare this poll with the one before last, the LibDems are 3% up. The truth may lie somewhere between the two or it may be that one is right and the other is wrong.
As for the apparent drop in Conservative and Labour support, we need to see if that is echoed in other polls before attempting to explain it.
The good thing is that the Conservatives still have a comfortable lead over Labour.
"But as you hint, if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less"
And if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the Libdums from their braindead devotees on here, your party wouldn't even reach double figures.
Plato said... “"... if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less." Can't you come up with something...”
Simon - anyone who expresses any opinion here that is marginally less than rabidly pro-Bill Cash or pro-BNP will be instantly rounded on and treated like an invading alien.
As I've mentioned before, I sincerely feel sorry for the likes of Cameron and Dale trying to turn round a party that (from the comments here) consists at the grassroots level of little more than recidivist thugs and morons.
In that way, Iain himself is totally unrepresentative but his little troop of maniac posters are.
Just an aperçu on the maybe/maybe not Lib Dem poll surge. Just saw Vince Cable on Sky’s Boulton show and apparently he has started a Sunday Mail* or some such column today.
Is the ubiquitous Vince partly responsible for a possible Lib Dem recovery? He has a considerable reputation and now gravitas. He has been right for months and months over the economy, housing market etc when all other domestic politicos (especially the chancellor and shadow chancellor) have been wrong. (As a result he is never out of the TV studios - though it helps in that his constituency is near London.) He speaks real English about complex issues and has for some time out-shone Clegg.
*OK. Not the Mail on Sunday as far as I can see from its web-site. It must be another right-wing rag. I misheard.
DespairingLiberal said... “Simon - anyone who expresses any opinion here that is marginally less than rabidly pro-Bill Cash or pro-BNP will be instantly rounded on and treated like an invading alien.”
Well if Iain’s comment section really is exclusively reserved for the head-bangers, then someone needs to put a prominent notice up to that effect - soonest.
“In that way, Iain himself is totally unrepresentative but his little troop of maniac posters are.”
Again I wonder much more how representative of today’s Tory party they are? Because, if they are, Cameron has his hands full. The hangers and floggers of Tory conference are one thing. But...
I was used to Trolls on Usenet but they seem so much more concentrated and mutually reinforcing. The neanderthals honestly believe their backwoods attitudes are almost universally shared because they seldom brook or even meet any disagreement. All terribly sad.
And I am a voter too. Can I not be persuaded to vote Conservative after this nasty, bellicose, authoritarian, big-brother government?** Not by this lot’s charms, certainly.
**OK I actually live in a very safe rural Conservative constituency but the point stands.
50 comments:
If other polls show the Lib Dems back in the teens then we will know. There has certainly not been any major announcement by the Lib Dems to warrant any increase in support.
It could be the Snow and stay at home employees. Likely to be Liberals!
Another minor factor could be the LD school policy change - scrap the Child Trust Fund and use the money for class sizes. Lefties probably like that sort of thing! Interesting Cameron has been outlinning education this weekend!
Geez - that graphic makes yer eyes go funny.
It could be movement to the largest party in the country - the Apathetic Party. Loads and loads of people say 'they're all the same' so why not vote lib dem? What's to lose? Who cares anyway?
It probably is a bit soft but not many people are nerds like us - they rarely give a monkeys about policy announcements - all they know is they're being screwed without someone asking permission.
Perhaps it's not so much the Lib Dems doing anything, it's Labour just getting worse?
I can see Labour heading for an absolute massacre in 2010 (please let it be true!), with the toils of an election campaign revealing all the cracks for all to see. In which case, I see the Tories making monumental gains, with the Lib Dems also capitalising.
Perhaps the opposition benches are about to become somewhat split with Labour and the Lib Dems in a 60-40 split?
I can but dream!
Everyone has been doing political compass and found out they are actually liberals.
On the plus side in terms of a LD wipeout - this makes it very difficult for the LD's to target their scarce resources with such volitility! Some LD MP's who were being left to fend for themselves due to impending defeat may think they are in with a chance. Hopefully it will create inward pressure on the LD's and they will turn on themselves or put the resources in the wrong places and get wiped out!
Can't explain the Liberal gain,but here's a suggestion as to Tory loses - Caneron's attack on Brown for his "British jobs for British workers" speech.The main message many people will take from that is not that Brown is a hypocrite, but that the Tory's are against British jobs for British workers.
Not likely to be a vote winner and it reminds the electorate that the Tories are just as committed to the EU as New Labour.
This seems to be the most bizarre poll for a long, long time. It is impossible to see why the LibDems would gain any new followers and particularly why they should gain voters from the Tories.
I had to come on - my WV is TWITCH
Everyone has been doing political compass and found out they are actually liberals.
The irony there being the fact that the Fib Dems aren't.
"what on earth can one attribute the rise of the LibDem vote to?"
Carol Thatcher?
Perhaps people are terrified of another Labour government with Gordon Brown at the helm - and also of a conservative government who could still be very nasty. Both are equally terrifying for different reasons.
Protest votes for the LibDems
I find the polls getting increasingly bizarre. One week the Conservatives are 20 ahead of Labour then its down to 4 then week after their 13+ points ahead. Lib Dems were down to 12 now up to 20. Who on earth do the pollsters ask? With a little over a year to go until the big election, if you don't know who you are going to vote for by now then God help us all.
Silly season. Very silly season. Most of these polls for all their assumed precision are really faulty in one way or another. And their coverage underlines and redoubles the faultiness. Including on blogs. Though more importantly in proper media. Usually about 1000 people are consulted. Usually half of these or thereabouts won't say, don't know, say they won't vote, or are flibbety gibbets who choose one of these three categories to cover their embarrassment.
So we're down to 500 or there abouts. 17% of that figure is 85 people. 11% is 55 people. Just 30 people. Just remember there are 500 people not saying. And just remember too that there are a fair number of those who are saying who aren't actually expressing a real preference but rather are betting on the outcome.
The DK/WS/DV proportion reduces and reduces and reduces as a real, important election looms. Generally speaking these seem to be splitting strongly for the incumbents when they do opt back in.
Tony Sharp's point is a good one. The Lib Dems are gaining ground WITHOUT DOING ANYTHING. They lose ground when they DO ANYTHING!
Keep completely schtum and they could reach 20%. But they will never get to 35% that way.
However if they speak up - the only way to get any proper adherents instead of fellow fudgers is to speak up. That seems to generally REDUCE their poll. Unless it is for example a real contemporary issue where they either have or present themselves as having a unique point of view. Iraq from 2003 to the GE of 05 and beyond would be a case in point - even though far more LP MPs voted against the war than Libs the LP were also the incumbents making the terrible (in either sense) decision to go to war.
I've giving up looking at these commission polls for Lib Dems it's like the magnficent men in their fly machines. However, depends how much of that survey may have been in Scotland which I think would account for some upsewing but 6% is a bit much to purely be a Scottish bounce.
I agree with Dick of the impressive appendage - it's the apathetics what done it.
I've always wondered what the Libdums were for, apart from providing shelter from the real world. Or as an advert for why care in the community is not a good idea. Or as a collection point for the pretentious, intellectual snobs who no-one else would give the time of day to, and who invariably have their heads so far up their own backsides they can see daylight the other end.
And the people they elect - Thorpe, Ashdown, the Leader of the Scotch Drinking Party - what was his name? Oaten - a man you cannot even think of without reaching for the sick bag. Old Uncle Ming, proof positive of life after death. Lemsip Oatcake - what the hell is he for?
There is, perhaps, an argument for requiring an IQ test, prior to granting the right to vote; that argument is never more persuasive than when considering the Libdums.
Ms Canvas seems to be a case in point. I bet she even carries the Guardian in public.
Actually, ex-apprentice, I read the Independent.
Should you really be talking about IQ tests when this is how you describe yourself on Google blogger:
"I just poor Lithuanian Catholic boy, come to third world shithole call Innnnverrrrnessss in far Jock UberDarklands to serve period of penal servitude, also know as apprenticeship, to mean, bad-tempered, foul-mouthed, evil, cantankerous, tax dodging ole Polish plumber who wudnae know his O-ring from his ball-cock if not for me and the local Poly. Old bastard have no sense humour and is a bit too handy with the P45, hence I is ex."
Best for you to keep schtummm, eh?
"Silly season. Very silly season. Most of these polls for all their assumed precision are really faulty in one way or another. And their coverage underlines and redoubles the faultiness. Including on blogs. Though more importantly in proper media. Usually about 1000 people are consulted."
Mr Paul is correct !!!!
The answer tou nare looking for Mr Dale is 'methodology'...
ICM have a methodology which favours the LibDems.
The point Mr Paul and all of us should bear in mind is that no matter how flawed the individual polls are - you can take ALL of them in to account and draw an opinion.
That opinion is that faith in labour has slipped away.
The poll seems to imply that people think Darling should be sacked.
Fair enough but it hides the point that Brown is really running the economy and if Brown sacks Darling then he really condemns himself.
Salmondnet may be right but I think not - Camerons attack was fairly clear, attacking Brown for misrepresentation (ie lying). And he should know that the LibDems are more in favour of the EU and thus foreign workers than the Tories - so can he go figure?
I bet a few mobile telephones have been smashed at Chequers!!
It is all unravelling. At least it will end talk of a Lib Lab pact for a few days!
The LD's will now be thinking of being the official opposition and preparing for government in six years time!
Two words. Vince. Cable.
"I just poor Lithuanian Catholic boy, come to third world shithole call Innnnverrrrnessss in far Jock UberDarklands to serve period of penal servitude, also know as apprenticeship, to mean, bad-tempered, foul-mouthed, evil, cantankerous, tax dodging ole Polish plumber who wudnae know his O-ring from his ball-cock if not for me and the local Poly. Old bastard have no sense humour and is a bit too handy with the P45, hence I is ex."
That's funny.
The Independent, now there's a barrel of laughs. It's The Guardian on Mogadon.
Has the 'do nothing' gambit worked? Is Labour's greatest weapon triangulation of apathy and the constant drip drip of the insidious BNP?
We all believe that only complete loonies would vote Labour but that just isn't the case.
If this poll is right - this is an election.
Dear Mr ex-apprentice
I, for my sins, have a Pavlov's dog response to the Guardian and always buy it whenever in reach. I think Larry Eliot has been on the money from day 1 - I love Simon Hoggart, I'm a stoopid public servant and I can just about do the crosswords.
On Wednesdays they use to do an edit of one of their comment is free blogs, written by some nerdy dude and then abridged to cut out the troll flummery. T'was amusing lots and lots.
Other than that - Canvas likes to fight with people - prose police. She can be quite nice tho occasionally. She called Obamalama before the rest of us Draperphiles.
Calm down, dears, it's only an opinion poll! I love Labours' continued fall but the rest is nonsense. More likely a 3 point gain to Libs and Conservatives. Try
Conservatives 47%
Libs 18%
Lab 27%
Others 07%
Summer 2010
49%
26%
19%
06%
LibDem official opposition.
Bizarre indeed. One’s first thought is that it’s a rogue poll - given recent trends. If accurate, however, it presages interesting times. A hung parliament starts looking again more possible.
Perhaps the oft-used phrase that Cameron hasn’t yet closed the deal is true? Perhaps the Tories are still thought of as the nasty party?
The Carol Thatcher business can’t have helped but remind people of the Tories’ nasty past - even if she has nothing official to do with the party.* There’s also been a great deal of right-wing triumphalism in the air which won’t have helped Cameron. It never pays to assume nor take the electorate for granted. They don’t like it.
I concur that it has to have been something negative against the Tories rather than anything positive for the Lib Dems - even if these polls generally underestimate Lib Dem GE performance.
I disagree with a comment that the voters “should” have made their minds up by now. They haven’t and nor should they have.
*But presumably the polling was done before this?
Dear Ms Canvas,
I am left crushed, desolated, ravaged and extirpated by the brutal, uncalled for savagery of your response.
I lie stricken on the field, mortally wounded, your dagger of disapprobation protruding from my back, perhaps never to dare raise my head on this site ever again.
I hope you can live with yourself.
PS I suppose a shag is out of the question?
The triumphalism thing may be true Simon - a lot of people get their vibes from blogs nowadays. The right-wingers, particularly the more nasty variety, have been in full-on Harry Enfield-style rahrah mode for the last few months and that will have an effect.
However, I think the most significant thing will have been a gradual increase in public visibility of the still very weak Tory front bench. As the media tend to move towards having them on more, we are treated to the depressing spectacles of messrs Osborne, Hague & Co. The voters probably like Cameron but the quality of his pre-Ken-Clarke staff is, to put it kindly, mixed.
I for one will be very happy if they go in to the general with Osborne as shadow chancellor, since every time he wistfully appears on TV with his silly attempts to sound less posh, his terrible misunderstandings of basic economic issues, inability to answer questions or even understand them properly - well, you get the picture. Distressing proof that simply having attended Eton is no guarantee of a sharp brain.
strapworld said... “At least it will end talk of a Lib Lab pact for a few days!”
I don’t know where you think you have heard such talk but it is ill-informed. No Lib Dem leader (least of all one as right-wing as Clegg) will prop up a Labour Government that is seen to have been rejected by the electorate. It just won’t happen. It’s a Lib Dem/Tory pact or nothing.
Given the improbability of the Tories ever agreeing to fix our bent and corrupt electoral system - it’ll be nothing. Minority government followed rapidly by a new GE is the most likely future in the unlikely event of a hung parliament.
Dear Servalan
There is an air within the public sector that ofcourse the Tories have to reduce spending, ofcourse they do. The problem is that so do Labour but they won't, can't, have neither incentive or desire to do so.
The wages in the public sector are fantastic, insulated - inflation proof, myriad, various and plenty!
Is it wrong for the masses of public sector employees (even those in a proper job because they know some gimp at the office will sort stuff) to fear the Tories.
The number of pointless jobs I've held, let alone applied for is ridiculous and costly.
The Tories can't sell economic ruin - they can't sell bullshit. Unfortunately however, that is where we are - on a cliff. Everyone knows it but until someone states to the public sector -
"Your pensions are too expensive - anyone under 45 - let's talk".
"Your wages are too high - how's about a 10% pay cut and job's a good un?"
"No new jobs for a bit eh?"
!(This is all on the assumption that people on benefit vote Labour which is potentially the most bullshit assumption)
Don't panic its just 1 poll. However if both big parties are down 4% it means nobody much likes either of them & the LDs are getting 3/4s of the "none of the above" votes. It could be their call for cutting income tax is working through but I don't think anybody bel;ieves that promise. It could just be that nobody thinks Labour are going to win & therefore those who vote mainly to stop the other lot are feeling free to go elsewhere.
All we can say is that Britain's politicians aren't offering anything that attracts people. Nothing new there then.
I am sorry - blatantly off topic, so please feel free to punish me accordingly - but given the current weather conditions I think this link about the IPCC is salutary.
http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC.htm
"The IPCC has manipulated ignorant politicians, the media and the public and been deceptive about its claims"
"IPCC review editors are not complying with the requirements of their role"
"revealed the dubious qualifications of many authors and contributors to the IPCC's WG II report"
"The evidence that has been supplied is based on unsound scientific methods and mathematics."
"Despite the numbers of persons involved, and the lengthy formal review procedures, the preparation of the IPCC Assessment Reports is far from being a model of rigor, inclusiveness and impartiality."
... etc. 50 et ceteras in fact.
Oh *yawn* canvas - it's all because of Carol Thatcher - yeah right.
ICM are known Lib Dem favourable, the snow (possibly) is more likely to have kept these respondants at home and it's ONE poll.
Mr Paul, I'd be interested in evidence of your assertions regarding the respondant profile percentages you mention.
I have a market research background and very interested in gleaning more data.
There can only be one conclusion of course......
What has changed we ask ourselves?
.. well - nothing. Although Derek Draper has now started the Labourlist blog.
Therefore, through using only deductive science based reasoning, it is clear that Monsieur Draper's activities have a positive effect on Liberal polling figures.
Congratulations to both Nick Clegg and Derek Draper for a job well done.
i find it hard to believe that "British jobs for British workers" would swing people to Liberal considering they are most pro-EU party.
Clegg's questions at PMQs are always excellent. This week, over the noise of Labour and the Tories who were trying to drown him out, I think he wanted to know what Gordon was going to do about non-domiciled fat cats and Peers who didn't pay tax. A good question as usual. And as usual it wasn't answered.
DespairingLiberal said... “...a lot of people get their vibes from blogs nowadays.”
Well I can’t directly contradict you but I find that claim most improbable. But as you hint, if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less.
JMB said... “I find it hard to believe that "British jobs for British workers" would swing people to Liberal considering they are most pro-EU party.”
All three front benches and the Scot Nats are officially ‘pro-EU’ - despite the strange hoops Cameron has had to jump through to try to keep his party together on the matter.
JMB - everyone's dumping Labour stock, they may end up buying Labour again. No one's voting for - merely against.
Trevorsden. Of course I know that the LibDems are pro EU. I was offering an explanation for the Tory's loss of support, not for the LibDem gain.
In any case disgruntled voters are not always rational. Many Libdem voters do so because the LDs are not the other two major parties, not because they agree with (or in some cases even know of) their policies.
One thing's for sure, the BBC will finally mention a poll.
Can we have a Lib-Lab pact again? Imagine that lot attempting to clean up after Gordon's mess.
It would save the Tories cleaning up after another disastrous Labour administration and getting no thanks for their efforts.
"an ex-apprentice said..
PS I suppose a shag is out of the question?
February 07, 2009 3:28 PM"
It certainly starting to look that way mr apprentice.
*big yawnnnn - can't be bothered to get popcorn out*
Simon Gardner said...
"... if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less."
Can't you come up with something
a)wittier
b)more credible
c)backed up with data
c)and dare I say insightful?
Just a thought :)
Could it be that the new Lib/Dem policy on snow is more attractive than the cynics anticipated.
Look out for a new Labour initiative in the next few days.
Dear Ms Nobbs,
As soon as she saw the "poor Lithuanian Catholic boy", I knew my chances were blown.
You know what these liberals are like at heart, eh?
Nasty!
The Lib Dems LOL
ICM tend to give a higher vote share for the LibDems than other pollsters. Compared to actual election results, other pollsters tend to underestimate LibDem support. ICM are closer to the truth.
ICM's last poll showed an unexpected 3% drop in LibDem support. If we compare this poll with the one before last, the LibDems are 3% up. The truth may lie somewhere between the two or it may be that one is right and the other is wrong.
As for the apparent drop in Conservative and Labour support, we need to see if that is echoed in other polls before attempting to explain it.
The good thing is that the Conservatives still have a comfortable lead over Labour.
"But as you hint, if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less"
Simon Gardner> How very right you are! SO true.
Dear Ms Canvas,
And if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the Libdums from their braindead devotees on here, your party wouldn't even reach double figures.
But never mind, irrelevance suits you.
Plato said... “"... if large numbers of people were to gain their impression of the modern Conservative party from (say) here - then the Tories would be on 15% or less." Can't you come up with something...”
I apologize for what you tell me is a cliché; the thought was entirely new to me. Nevertheless, it’s a consideration that if the Tories here actually want a Conservative government, it would be worth remembering that it’s a public space and they might want to moderate some of their more extremist, un-nuanced behaviour and the more far-fetched invective? Just a thought. Or maybe they prefer the comforts of ‘oppositionalism’?
(Personally, I have now absurdly and erroneously been accused here of being a “Labourite” and contrariwise 20 years ago of being a “Tory mole”. What goes around comes around [another cliché].)
Simon - anyone who expresses any opinion here that is marginally less than rabidly pro-Bill Cash or pro-BNP will be instantly rounded on and treated like an invading alien.
As I've mentioned before, I sincerely feel sorry for the likes of Cameron and Dale trying to turn round a party that (from the comments here) consists at the grassroots level of little more than recidivist thugs and morons.
In that way, Iain himself is totally unrepresentative but his little troop of maniac posters are.
Just an aperçu on the maybe/maybe not Lib Dem poll surge. Just saw Vince Cable on Sky’s Boulton show and apparently he has started a Sunday Mail* or some such column today.
Is the ubiquitous Vince partly responsible for a possible Lib Dem recovery? He has a considerable reputation and now gravitas. He has been right for months and months over the economy, housing market etc when all other domestic politicos (especially the chancellor and shadow chancellor) have been wrong. (As a result he is never out of the TV studios - though it helps in that his constituency is near London.) He speaks real English about complex issues and has for some time out-shone Clegg.
*OK. Not the Mail on Sunday as far as I can see from its web-site. It must be another right-wing rag. I misheard.
DespairingLiberal said... “Simon - anyone who expresses any opinion here that is marginally less than rabidly pro-Bill Cash or pro-BNP will be instantly rounded on and treated like an invading alien.”
Well if Iain’s comment section really is exclusively reserved for the head-bangers, then someone needs to put a prominent notice up to that effect - soonest.
“In that way, Iain himself is totally unrepresentative but his little troop of maniac posters are.”
Again I wonder much more how representative of today’s Tory party they are? Because, if they are, Cameron has his hands full. The hangers and floggers of Tory conference are one thing. But...
I was used to Trolls on Usenet but they seem so much more concentrated and mutually reinforcing. The neanderthals honestly believe their backwoods attitudes are almost universally shared because they seldom brook or even meet any disagreement. All terribly sad.
And I am a voter too. Can I not be persuaded to vote Conservative after this nasty, bellicose, authoritarian, big-brother government?** Not by this lot’s charms, certainly.
**OK I actually live in a very safe rural Conservative constituency but the point stands.
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