The John Edwards campaign reckons the Iowa Caucus result as a "repudiation of Hillary Clinton". They may well be right, but it's also a repudiation of John Edwards, who put a huge effort into Iowa. There is only one story tonight, the clear victory for Barack Obama. Remember, this is Iowa, a state with less than 5% non white voters. Watch the polls in other States move towards Obama and away from Clinton. New York and Florida are the ones to keep an eye on. If Clinton starts leaking support in her home state of New York she might as well look forward to a happy retirement.The result on the Republican side is less meaningful. I find it difficult to believe that Huckabee's appeal will stretch far beyond the so-called Bible Belt. Mitt Romney's poor showing tonight will not only hit his campaign's self confidence, but also his ability to raise money. Giuliani is also finding fundraising tricky. Does this mean the real money as well as the smart money will also now switch back to John McCain? As I write this, McCain is level with Fred Thompson in third place on about 13% of the vote. He's done virtually no campaigning in the state so this is a good result for him. If he can win in New Hampshire, it will be John McCain who has what George Bush in 1980 called "the Big Mo". Momentum is everything in Presidential elections. As of now, Obama and McCain have it and the rest do not. It really is that simple.
Prediction: Fred Thompson will exit the campaign within days.
UPDATE 3.45am: Romney and Clinton can take comfort from the fact that in 1992 Bill Clinton only got 3% in Iowa but went on to win the nomination. In 1988 the nominee Michael Dukakis got 22% and was 3rd. For the Republicans in 1988 Bob Dole beat VP (and nominee) George HW Bush by 37% to 19%. Pat Robertson got 25%. Info from Kiwiblog.
17 comments:
It's never that simple in any politics, as you well know, Iain.
Don't rule Hillary out just yet -although I certainly wouldn't put money on her at this stage. But she has a massive oganisation behind her. And she's not a graceful player. She wants to win.
If she loses out here, the Reps with McCain are a shoo-in. Although, obviously, the Reps will want to know who McCain's running mate is - especially given his age. They'll want to know that there's someone solid and electable in place to run for a second term should McCain have to take early retirement - although he appears to be in good health. That he survived Viet Nam proves that he is tough and strong-willed.
I'm going to put my bet on McCain vs Clinton.
I disagree that McCain has gained momentum from tonight's result (let alone the claim in your post title that he now has 'the big mo'). I don't think Iowa has much meaning at all for his campaign, and he's unlikely to carry a single county. The bottom line is that he needs to do well in New Hampshire (a state he won in 2000) - otherwise he's probably sunk. The money hinges on his performance next Tuesday - not his showing tonight.
The top story on the GOP side in Iowa is the disaster suffered by Romney (given the amount of money he has spent there). Huckabee is now a potentially viable candidate - but as you say, we need to see how he'll do in a state with fewer evangelicals. I've seen an Iowa entry poll that suggests that he only carried 14% of the non 'born agains' - so the signs are that you may well be right about his future prospects.
I reckon Obama has the Democrat nomination in the bag now, Clinton's only appeal was that she seemed unbeatable so now she has been beaten it's over. She's a strange figure really, an centrist with no cross over appeal. Hopefully the repellent John Edwards is finished now.
For the Republicans this result settles almost nothing, no one did much better or worse than they had been predicted to do.
Make that "her carpetbagger state of New York".
Iain,
Romney will win the next State, Wyoming, perhaps with a majority. Not a big state, but at least he can count it as a win (by the way, Wyoming was the first state to give Women the vote).
After that he will almost certainly lose New Hampshire to McCain, but it won't be a big disappointment because it's already a given.
And then, watch out! Nevada and Michigan, which come shortly afterward, will almost certainly break Romney's way.
In other words, don't count Romney out!
people mock the Americans but their system would never allow people like Gordon Brown to achieve any office above dog catcher.
Isn't it remarkable that Hellary seems so shop-soiled when she has so little political experience?
I'm still trying to work out who I want to win. I'm not that up on American politics, and while I am a Tory, I don't know how that translates into the American political system (would be good for you to do a piece on here detailing your take on this)...I think I favour Obama, but that is just going on the policy comparisons on the CNN and BBC websites. From a foreign policy point of view, I think another Republican President would be scary. I think Huckabee’s policy to pursue terrorists in Pakistan, bypassing Musharraf...surely that would just stir up a hornets nest? I'm also not a fan of Romney after his comments on Britain, and on most policies his views seem to have taken a u-turn since he was Massachusetts governor.
Still not sure to be honest, in the months ahead, I look forward to learning more about the candidates. I have to say one thing I noticed from the post Iowa speeches was that they all seemed more impressive speakers than our current PM, although I guess that's not difficult...
Huckabee is an INCREDIBLE speaker. He has shown himself to be a shrewd tactician over the last few months, too. He has a record and isn't afraid to say what he stands for. He is a VERY appealing candidate. I'm regretting not following my betting instinct on him sooner.
I don't care if you've briefly interviewed him, I don't trust your political antenna.
"Romney and Clinton can take comfort from the fact that in 1992 Bill Clinton only got 3% in Iowa but went on to win the nomination."
But that's no consolation whatsoever, because Tom Harkin was certain to win in '92 and so every other Dem candidate (including President Clinton) skipped the state.
I haven't been following the US presidential candidates much, but from what I've seen of him Mr Huckabee seems a very likeable bloke. So I don't see why his appeal should be limited to religious people.
"Mitt Romney's poor showing tonight will not only hit his campaign's self confidence, but also his ability to raise money."
Dude, Mitt Romney's worth about $250 million. I don't think his fundraising ability has suffered at all. In fact he's the only candidate who see the fight all the way through to the finish if need be.
And I doubt Fred will drop out just yet.
This year's Republican primary is unusual in that there is no obvious frontrunner and all the candidates have different strengths and weaknesses.
Huckabee: Pros - very likeable, brilliant communicator, has an obvious base amongst evangelical voters. Cons - weak organization, a very Liberal record on taxes, law and order, and regulation, and no grasp of foreign affairs and national security.
Romney: Pros - strong organization, lots of money, and his stated positions are in agreement with all parts of the Republican base. Cons - has flipped flopped on issues throughout his political career and therefore seems insincere and comes across as a machine politician. He's a Mormon.
McCain: Pros - strong on national security, lots of experience, a commanding figure. Cons - has made it clear throughout his political career that he values the love and respect of the media and Democrats and has nothing but contempt for the Republican base, many of whom are happy to reciprocate. Not conservative on most issues, particularly immigration.
Thompson: Pros - the most solidly and consistently conservative candidate of them all. Charming, genuine, and inspiring. Well thouht out positions on issues. Recognizable to many voters through his acting career. Cons - got in late and made a poor start to the campaign. Short on money and perhaps organization. Has acquired a reputation for laziness that he is having difficulty shaking.
Giuliani: Pros - great name recognition, good organization and to date, good fundraising ability. Reputation for getting things done. Cons - non-starter with the social conservative portion of the Republican base and has a history of ethical lapses of judgement, has adopted a strategy of ignoring early states in favour of organizing in later larger ones and risks gaining the perception of an also-ran.
Its entirely possible that we could get to the Republican convention without clear winner. Hell, its entirely possible that all five of the candidates could get through to the convention. Now that would be exciting.
I am not sure if people outside America know the absolute hatred that those outside of metropolitan places like New York have for Hilary. My sister (a staunch Florida Republican) would rather have Malcolm X for president (if he were alive of course) than Hilary. Hilary frightened the crap out of them when Bill was trying to push her Healthcare Bill thru which to those in the States was the gateway to socialism. People like my sister, who is kindness itself in everyday life, balked at her taxes paying for medical care for those 'too feckless' to have their own medical plans which is how the Republicans were painting it. I can tell you that I had a few harsh words for my little sister on THAT one.
On the other side of the coin metropolitan types in NY, LA, Atlanta and all the more 'enlightened' places will have no truck with Huckabee and his evangelical following. They have had quite enough with Bush - the chattering classes there are always wringing their hands about some Bush plot to reverse Roe vs Wade and outlaw abortion.
I am a Hilary supporter and as I can still vote there I will but I fear I won't get the chance. The Obama/Hilary situation is eeriely reminiscent of the Cameron/Davis leadership race and as one who wept bitter tears on DD's defeat I know a phenomenom when I see one - I predict it will be Obama. Still undecided about the Republicans - either McCain or Romney. Despite having revived an ailing NYC, Guiliani is reviled by the chattering classes there as being the guy who spoiled all their fun when he imposed strict regulations on nightclubs. He has way too much personal baggage for the rest of the country - he should have gone for the governorship of New York instead.
Is the blogosphere now joining the mainstream media in completely ignoring Ron Paul? Not even to say that this man, without big backers but loads of money from small donations, can't win it? His name is off the map in every comment, but not the results where he got 10%.
Iain, have you ever pondered why so many Republican voters distrust John McCain?
After all, John McCain is arguably America's greatest war hero, blessed with a winning personality and a generally acceptable voting record. And he has a good relationship with the national media.
Considering only the above, he is in many ways the ideal GOP nominee.
Yet a person like myself, who WANTS to vote for a man who's given so much to his country, puts McCain on the bottom of his list.
Iain, instead of reading the NY Times or watching CNN, try talking to some actual Republican voters.
I have backed Barack Obama from the start, I knew it was always going to be a Mountain to climb and last nights success is only the Start!
BARACK is looking and sounding good, the campaign team and its machinery are now well oiled and need to keep building. While Hilary is looking and sounding old and looking Weary. Hopefully this will signal the end of the USA Family Dynasty, Kennedy then Bush and now Clinton.
But it is going to take a lot of hard work, last night is going to help at last with Barack America seems to be getting used to they need "CHANGE"
Andrew Sullivan had some very positive things to say about Mr Huckabee in his Times column:
"Mike Huckabee, meanwhile, is being discounted as nothing like this significant. But it is, I’d say, very foolish to underestimate him as well. In the wreckage of the postBush Republican party, Huckabee is the most talented natural politician."
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