This is my take on who will stay or go in a Gordon Brown Cabinet. Feel free to tell me whether you agree...
Jack Straw: STAY Chancellor or Home Office
Hilary Benn: STAY Promotion to Home Office?
Hazel Blears: STAY Move to junior Cabinet position
Alistair Darling STAY Promotion?
Alan Johnson STAY at Education
Ruth Kelly STAY at Communities
David Miliband STAY at a beefed up DEFRA
Douglas Alexander STAY at Transport
Des Browne STAY But should be demoted
Jacqui Smith STAY Promoted, although God knows why
Stephen Timms STAY As a safe pair of hands
Peter Hain STAY Going nowhere
Hillary Armstrong OUT
John Prescott RETIRING
John Reid RETIRING
Margaret Beckett OUT
Tessa Jowell OUT Will do a John Reid and announce it herself
Patricia Hewitt OUT
Baroness Amos OUT
John Hutton OUT Brown hates him and it's mutual
Lord Falconer OUT Desperate to stay but won't
Geoff Hoon IN No, don't laugh
Ed Miliband IN
Liam Byrne IN
Caroline Flint IN
James Purnell IN
Yvette Cooper IN
Andy Burnham IN
Ed Balls IN Not to the Treasury, but to the DTI
Neil Kinnock IN No, don't laugh
Nick Brown IN Will return as Chief Whip
UPDATE: Ben Brogan's predictions HERE.
44 comments:
You've missed out Dawn Primorolo, Chancellor.
She's served under Gordon for ages now and knows where all the bodies are buried. It's pay-off time (and will counter the girlie brigade when he turves-out Hewitt Jowell etc).
You're right on Ed Balls. I know of his moves from our side.
Thank you, Iain. A very interesting analysis. I have nothing to add. But very interesting.
With the Jimmy-count one down, thanks to Reid, perhaps Darling for Chancellor; and Straw back at FCO - rather than a sawn-off Home Office.
Five women out, and only two women in, looks a bit unlikely.
Sadly, I think your call on Kinnock is spot-on, but not (as you seem to imply with Baroness Amos on the out-list) as Leader in the Lords, but perhaps DFID post-Benn.
The News of the World said Gordon Brown would give Jon Cruddas given a cabinet job if he doesn't become Deputy Leader. Plausible.
There is a dreadful second rater in The House of Lords called baroness Scotland: hope she gets the Order of The Boot along with Amos
Margret Beckett to Defence? afterall Brown has little respect for either.
Frank Field, who occasionally thinks unthinkable thoughts?
Kate Hoey, the countryman's favourite red?
Can anyone tell me who is likely to be the next Welsh secretary?
Kinnock is not an MP.
It's an empty statement really; about as meaningful or meaningless as Blair's own statements about leaving, serving a full term, etc.
What on earth the exchange of letters is about is hard to imagine. Those get written on resignation, not promises to go when the prime minister goes, because everybody goes anyway, when the prime minister goes.
How can Gordon refresh the Cabinet by bringing back a former leader, and a former whip?
This would be like a Cameron Shadow team with Redwood in it . . .
Agree with anon, you've missed "Red" Dawn Primorolo. God help us if she becomes chancellor (very unlikely). But Ruth Kelly, I thought that Brown didn't rate her and she's a very weak perfomer....
anon 5.42pm "You've missed out Dawn Primorolo"
Maybe not , watch the you tube clip of her running from the bbc , it's career meltdown material, and hilarious:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyvsATYoZTM
Is Prescott still in the cabinet? Must be a pretty big one.
Hilary Benn to be the new Minister of Justice.
While Balls won't be made chancellor, I'm not sure about DTI. I have it on pretty good authority (two steps away from one of Brown's own briefings) that he'll scrap DTI as a department.
No prediction for FCO then, Iain?
ed miliband will need to be rewarded for being such a longstanding acolyte.
caroline flint, ivan lewis, beverley highes, parmjit dhanda are also names that get touted about. only god knows why...
I'm not so sure we'll see the back of Beckett. The others on your list seem pretty good bets though.
Prime Minister- Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister- Harriet Harman (Worcester Woman)
Chancellor- Jack Straw
Justice Secretary & Lord Chancellor- Baroness Scotland
Foreign Secretary- Hilary Benn
Home Secretary- Alistair Darling
Education Secretary- David Miliband
Health Secretary- Caroline Flint
Environment Secretary- Jacqui Smith
Defence Secretary- John Hutton
Work and Pensions Secretary- Douglas Alexander
International Development Secretary- Peter Hain
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Alan Johnson
Transport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw
Local Government and Communities Secretary- Hazel Blears
Trade and Industry Secretary- Ed Balls
Northern Ireland Secretary- Vera Baird
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Patricia Hewitt
Chairman of the Labour Party- Jon Cruddas
Leader of the House of Commons- Stephen Timms
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Smith
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Dawn Primarolo
Chief Whip (Commons)- John Healey
Chief Whip (Lotrds)- Baroness Royall
There will be no Cabinet, because there will be no need for a Cabinet.
Gordon has a massive intellect, we are told, he's a great planner, a stupendous manager and a fine military strategist.
He will eliminate poverty across the world, bring peace to all warring factions across the world, and at the weekends, he will discover a cure for cancer.
Prince William and Prince Charles will abdicate, and Gordon will become the Heir Apparent to the throne of England and Scotland.
Her Majesty will be well advised to take a very long trip to her Dominions across the sea.
What about the Dept of Economic Affairs?
There are two, possibly three, key players in the scramble for a seat at Gordon's table - Jack Straw, David Miliband and (assuming one of them wins the deputy leadership) Hilary Benn/Alan Johnson/Peter Hain.
Would Jack Straw accept a return to either the Home Office or the FCO, or could he pip Alastair Darling to the Treasury?
Would the popular and competent Alan Johnson be the man to restore morale and improve performance at the post-Reid Home Office, if he could earn the clout of the deputy leadership?
Alternatively, would Hilary Benn or Peter Hain use their clout as deputy leader to demand their preferred role at the FCO?
With Jack Straw as Chancellor, surely David Miliband would be given whichever of the FCO/Home Office was not taken by the new deputy leader (assuming Jon Cruddas, Hazel Blears or Harriet Harman don't get the gig)?
Not sure where this leaves Alastair Darling though.
I admire your devoting your attentions to Gordon Brown's Cabinet....I am sure you will receive your reward in the New Year's Honours list Iain
Kinnock wont return.
is at the British Council.
Iain,
You've left out the Minister of Drainage.
They'll all need a way out in a couple of years.
A weedy foreign country, which we are becoming, usually has a Minister of the Interior. Can we have one of those?
maisie said
What about the Attorney General, when he goes, Bliar has no cover from Knacker of the yard. Gordon can then get his own back for all the trouble over the years
I think he'll probably bring back Andrew Smith...
They're all out at the next election :)
Auntie Flo'
There will be no Cabinet. It would be too tiresome for Gordon to have to sit through all those pointless meetings, yawning and pretending to listen, before finally getting the chance to issue his instructions.
There will be a small padded room deep within No 10 where Gordon alone will decide what is best for us. A voice will whisper sibilantly from a dark corner: We hates they others, Master, we hates them, we hates them. They wants the preciouss. Kill the others, Master, kill them. Keep the preciouss for yourself. "Aye, Gollum, you are right. That I will."
Is Blinky Balls going to the DTI just to shut it down then?
And surely there's a place for Mandy - HM Ambassador to Brazil perhaps?
Sadly, we are likely to hear a lot from the Welsh Windbag but I doubt GB will have him in the Cabinet. He'd rather have Michael Foot back if he was that desperate!
What about that useless tosser, David Lammy?
Looking at the potential changes, I'm glad a lot of deadwood will be out such as Margaret Beckett, John Prescott, Patrica Hewett and Hilary Armstong will go.
Milliband and Bradshaw have clear ministerial talent and have done a great job at Defra.
Kinnock could only make FM, but I doubt it.
What would Stalin do ?
Ken Livingstone for FCO
George Galloway for Home Office (or whatever it'll be soon).
Tessa for Treasury - she understands mortgages etc.
Just kidding (I hope).
If he got rid of that many women he'd have to bring in more to make up for it (according to the warped mindset by which the PC brigade operate)
As for Flint she may be good looking but she is completely thick and speaks like a chav.
How many men can you get on a rocking horse?
For some unfathomable reason the Telegraph is touting your little chipmunk for Home Secretary. No, really.
It would be a PR breakthrough. Crime and illegal immigration would instantly disappear and hordes of beaming citizens would queue in the streets to be fingerprinted for ID cards.
Ruth Kelly will only have a major job if Brown makes her testify against Blair/Levy and she agrees. Then, yes, sky's the limit.
But I think Prescott will be dragged out of that office kicking and screaming. They'll probably have to use tranquillizer darts and dynamite.
I sure hope THAT makes it to YouTube!
Fascinating; could play this game all night.
My interest and concern is Patricia Hewitt. She should be sacked; she should be thrown out. But if he does that, it will be a tacit admission that she (and new Labour) have ballsed up the NHS. At the same time, he will want to free the public from her patronising voice. So somewhere that she can be rarely seen, and never heard.
? Leader of the House
Personally, I think High Commissioner of the Falklands would be better!
John
it wouldnt really matter what you replaced john reid with...
http://vontraplexium.blogspot.com
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