The Guardian/ICM poll in The Guardian is, on the face of it not good news for the Conservative. Their lead over Labour has narrowed to only two points. In March the Tories were polling 40%, whereas they now score 34% compared to Labour's 32%. The LibDems have stayed static at 21%, which is a higher rating than they receive in YouGov or Populus polls.
So what has changed since May 3rd when the Conservatives were polling 40%? The poll was taken from May 18-20th when the Willetts grammar school debacle was at its worst and the Labour Party was getting non-controversial free publicity in the aftermath of the Blair resignation.
However, that cannot on its own account for a 6% drop. The only thing I can put some of it down to is a kind of post coital afterglow, in which the public wish to show their appreciation for Tony Blair. This is norne out by the fact that 55% of people do not want him to go immediately and want him to stay until June 27th. As the Guardian says: "This may reflect a growing tolerance of Mr Blair's position now that he has confirmed details of his departure."
However, as usual when Gordon Brown is introduced into the equation the picture becomes better for the Conservatives and they open up an eight point lead of 38-30. Interestingly, virtuall all Tory voters stick with their Party when David Cameron is introduced into the question, but 15% of Labour voters move awat when Gordon Brown is named as leader. For the LibDems the figure is 21% when Sir Menzies Campbell is mentioned. I draw comfort from those figures, at least!
I expect all opinion polls to swing all over the place over the next few months. Indeed I wonder whether any of them are really worth looking at until Gordon Brown has bedded down.
So I do not pretend that this poll is good for the Conservatives, but I don't find it particularly surprising.
33 comments:
It's just noise!
Tories cant drop 6% in a month, I'm deeply suspicious of this poll.
Trouble is your guy is seen as a posh toff and about as sincere as Tony Blair.Liked the comment that if a poll ain't to your liking dismiss it as being suspicious.
"Narrowing Tory Lead"
in narrowing Tory pencil?
me, I blame those Tory Parliamentary Aids.
Whether I believe the poll or not is of no account.
I wouldn't bother voting for Cameron (If I could) because I don't see any difference between him and Labour.
I'd rather stay in and watch Big Brother than go out and vote for him (and I hate BB).
Can't say I'm a fan of a front bench from an exclusive public school, I preferred the bunch from the Grammars, at least you knew they had some intellectual ability.
You're right in saying we won't really be able to gauge polls well for a while, probably until the autumn. I don't think anyone really knows for sure just how the public will react to Brown as P.M. with Blair gone. We can guess all we like, but it's just posticulation.
So we are at the same level achieved by Michael Howard at the last election.
Cameron needs some decent people around him - Hilton following the New Labour project is just not working. New ideas are needed for a different time.
For those who have not seen it, this is UK Polling Report's analysis of the poll
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php
I'm suspicious of these poll results too and do not believe that support for the Conservatives has dropped that much.
Nevertheless, Cameron's support is becoming inherently and dangerously volatile - and why should that be a surprise?
He appears to be trying to lose support by becoming arrogant, divisive and disrespectful, towards both his party and England, his heartland.
How many socialist supporters has DC won by alienating his core supporters?
Zero, apparently
How many core and new found supporters has his arrogance, disrespect and divisiveness lost him?
Too many.
Auntie Flo'
Your doomed Mr. Cameron,your all doomed you know.
If it is the grammar school row, the fact that the Tory lead goes back up to a healthier level should give his critics in that row pause for thought.
Please add [when Cameron is specifically named] to the last post.....
Oops....
Coleen from Old Harlow,Female, 55 years old, says "How many socialist supporters has DC won by alienating his core supporters?
Zero, apparently
How many core and new found supporters has his arrogance, disrespect and divisiveness lost him?
Too many."
Is that scientific evidence?
Cameron & Willets did cause the grammar school row themselves, by repeating an already set out policy in such a poor way. Cameron calling those who disagreed with in the party as 'deluded' further fanned the flames. He took bad advice or he just lost his temper again.
Anon 9:56 PM
You are so right. Hilton is not working and he must go. He is behind all of the damage Cameron has done to his core support, I'm sure of it.
It is Hilton's arrogance which drives the divisive and arrogant and divisive approach that Cameron has adopted.
David Cameron is a good man with the ability to be an inspired leader. I trusted him implicitly when became leader. But I do not trust this Blair clone that Hilton is turning him into.
Sack Hilton, David Cameron, and trust your own instincts, which are good ones, and your support will soar.
Auntie Flo'
Two words:-
Grammar Schools
All you doubting Tories, still time to jump on the Labour bandwagon.
If Brown creates proper Cabinet Government and ministers can develop some visibility as real heads of department, the Conservatives are toast
I think that is certainly is going to be a degree of volatility.
Although I’m not a member of the Conservative party I have vote for the party’s candidates at elections (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) since 1987.
I am also a Purchasing manager at an NHS Trust and whilst one doesn’t discuss politics generally if I am asked who I would vote for I have no problems in identifying my allegiance.
Since DC has become party leader and over the months following the attitudes of my collegues has changed – they no longer look at me with the near contempt that they used to show. This for me shows the singular progress that has been made.
Reading the posts of many of the head bangers on Con Home is depressing. Yes of course you would want to see a huge poll lead and I feel sick at the thought of the merest possibility of this government being returned for a fourth time. But seizing on poll findings and urging the removal of DC is surely on of the ways most likely to get Brown re-elected.
This follow up question is extraordinary and meaningless. You ask them which party they would support if there were an election tomorrow ... and then you invite them to change their answer over a detail (detail?) that they knew when they answered the first question.
The pollsters are asking them to give extra weight to something they have already factored in. But unlike the media the public are not really so fascinated by personalities when it comes to polis.
The first answer is much more reliable I feel than the second answer and there are no doubt trained snake oil salesman out there who can explain how this sort of thing helps in their work.
oh yeah - wot a successful month Labour have had since the local election.......Hewitt, kelly,hodge,interest rate rises,more sleaze and spin......of course its all cos tony has eft.........and gordon has done so well........grow up an election tomorrow(with cameron being able to finally unveil proper policies on emotive subjects such as EU,big government,taxation etc) would get 150 seat majority. this poll is crap
bob crow slaughtering alan johnson on QT
jilted john - that is the point. New Labour has self-destructed for over a year. Cameron is only at 34%, the same as Howard achieved at the general. What is going wrong? I think the wrong strategy and the wrong advisors.
This is no supruse at all, we are getting rid of Blair and the country does not want Blair Mk 2 ie. David Cameron. we do not require an Eaton led Tory Party.
I don't give two hoots where the government ministers were educaed as long as it they aren't not nulab - or nulab clones.
i feel nyou cannot argue with th emore substantial local election poll. make of this tiny sample what you will but it has no logical crdibility
Jilted John - In my seat Lib Dems win most votes at local elections. When it comes to the General it is Lab v Con, and this has been the same for 20 years.
People vote a different way when they are choosing a government.
Have you noticed that almost all of us are making masses of spelling errors, Iain? Raw anger, that's what's doing it.
I am also a Purchasing manager at an NHS Trust
I thought that had been privatised with NHS Logistics
Oh, I see, suddenly the polls aren't worth taking notice of until Brown has bedded down.
You idiot.
iain's blindspot said...
Oh, I see, suddenly the polls aren't worth taking notice of until Brown has bedded down.
Or until the Tory boys and girls have been re-elected.
Anonymous said...
Have you noticed that almost all of us are making masses of spelling errors, Iain?
I was winning by a country mile an argument over at the Guardian with a chappie who I continually decimated with my wit.Unfortunately I misspelled "preferences" instead going with the very little known version "preverences" in his reply he used just those two words and I was done for.
If after being in power for ten years (with all the blame that accrues with that) Labour are still only fractionally behind the Conservatives in the polls it shows that David Cameron has little real popularity in the country. There is a mistaken assumption that just because the media like him that he will be an electoral asset. Unless something goes badly wrong with the economy Labour will walk the next election.
"Anonymous said...
I don't give two hoots where the government ministers were educaed as long as it they aren't not nulab - or nulab clones.
May 25, 2007 12:06 AM"
what a load of drivel by anon above
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