Monday, May 08, 2006
EXCLUSIVE: Tories Way Ahead in Populus Poll Tomorrow
The Times will have a Populus Poll tomorrow which will make brilliant reading for David Cameron. I'm told it puts the Conservatives on 38%, Labour on 30% and LibDems on 20%. But the more interesting fact is that if Gordon Brown were PM the Conservatives would be on 41%. Bring it on!
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25 comments:
Iain if these figures are true then if an election was held tommorow we would have a truely astounding result according to electoral calculus.
CON 38
LAB 30
LIB 20
...results in us being short of an overall majority by 15 seats
CON 41
LAB 30
LIB 20
... gives us a majority of 60!
Need to know the rest of the "If Brown was leader..." figures though, as I had to use the ones from the normal poll.
now how good is that!
Excellent news, I think this will go a long way to improving Cameron's credibility figures. Now lets hope that when the policy is elucidated people don't go off us again.
This is certainly great news for the party, and a testiment to how good a job Cameron and the ENTIRE front bench are doing. The issues being raised by the party are helping us in the polls and it really helps that Cameron is making sure that these are central, really driving home to the public that we wont be backing out of them.
Speaking from Bradford I can tell you that we still have a hell of a lot of work to do up here to really regain peoples trust, we didnt fare well at all here last Thursday and Leeds didnt improve their numbers either.
The national trend is good, but we must remember that to take back the country we must appeal to the Northern inner city folk. Cameron I am sure has taken this on board and I can tell you that we in West YOrkshire CF are going to be working damn hard on this issue.
I must say that I am on one level at least slightley disappointed (from a totally selfish point of view) having made a £500.00 bet with a fellow Cfer that we would either lose the next eletion or it would be a hung parliament, if we continue the way we are, I am going to be handing over a wad of cash I really would rather not. But joking aside I think that throwing Labour out and regaining a majority Government is the only case I would be willing to lose such a vast amount of money and eat some humble pie at the same time.
A word of caution. Polls are by no means a direct reflection of opinion - and this is only one poll.
So, Labour already a point or so higher than at last week's elections. The recovery begins......
Whether it is a long-term trend or not, it is extremely bad press for Labour. The 30% figure also suggests that their support is much softer than previously thought, meaning that we really do have the chance of gaining an overall majority despite the electoral system.
This poll has made my day, and its further proof that the party is beginning its climb back to power. Although it may take more than one election cycle, we can now be comforted in the knowledge that the death of Tory England has been greatly exaggerated.
If only that were the case in Cambridge where there there are 29 Lib Dems and 13 Labour members on the city council.
Chris P - agree. This is heartening, but one Poll a summer does not make. Then again One poll probably conducted just before the locals incombination with the local results is a touch more encouraging....
My query would be that this is populous, who have historically given Labour a huge weighting based on past vote recall - have they removed this?
There's no such thing as a uniform swing
Don't read too much into seat calculations on the basis of a poll
Zoso - But Wakefield DID move forward! A Calvert-inspired election victory for the blues in Wakefield's safest Council!
I'm now waiting for CCHQ's job offer!
38% is absolute magic. I'm a Leeds fan too and have just watched Leeds (playing in Tory blue!) whoop Preston.
SOUND!!!
david cameron mp - errr... the Government?!?!
Cameron and co. are sensible enough not to take such stock in polls but at least it wil provide useful in calming down the grassroots who have been doubtful about him from the start. And of course, NuLabour govern by opinion polls so this can only further aid in their eventual destruction!
I prefer real votes - and in the locals on not altogether favourable territory, the Conservatives scored 40 per cent. That will do for starters.
If we were to win the next general election, then surely it would be one of the greatest comebacks in political history?
As a wise Welshman once said to me, "You can't fatten the pig on market day." We are never going to make great leaps forward in the urban areas on the back of a new leader(no matter how good he is) and a bad week for Labour. Winning back people's trust only happens once you have consistently demonstrated a year round committment to them. As we are proving in Norwich, it is a long process with no quick fix, but we can regain the urban areas if we work at it. And whilst 41% is just one poll, it certainly put a smile on my face!
"But Wakefield DID move forward! A Calvert-inspired election victory for the blues in Wakefield's safest Council!" We did move forward in some ares yes, it is a start for sure, I know that we are now the largest party in Kirklees, we are however unable I believe to take control of the council due to the numbers - Torys 22Seats, LibDems 21Seats and Labout 20 (I believe) there are no minority party we can ally with and so we are in a position of gaining numbers but not power...
West Yorkshire is going to take a hell of a lot of work, the fact that we have only ONE MP here is testiment to that - Philip Davies MP for Shipley. I think my point was (in a rather long winded and round about way) is that YES we can make gains, but the folks of Leeds are going to be tough to win back. It is currently LibDem. Labour land and they are digging in even furter with every year that goes by. Conservatives CAN win in Leeds its just going to take time, energy, patience and sheer bloody mindedness to do so. The people in places like Leeds like hearing about Green issues, it makes everyone feel good, but they really want to know how we will better their lives in a visable and obvious way and they want to believe it, if they dont they wont vote for us. That part of the plan is down the DC and CCO, we can take it from there and fight our way in.
"David Cameron Mp said...
I fail to see why you are all so excited, just exactly what do you see changing under a Cameron government?"
Perhaps your username?
Plus we do have a number of years to build on our local government gains, and time is something the Labourites do not have. They're too busy tearing themselves apart, and these conflicting poll results will assist that, in our favour.
Ellee,
I'm no election analyst, but couldn't Cambridge's misfortune have something to do with the vast number of students and academics (notoriously left of centre as a group) living there?
Add in the workforces of all the private technology companies that rely on government work, and you probably have another significant chunk of NuLabour dependents in the electorate.
Now, if we privatised universities, maybe this could be changed somewhat, but to be honest I doubt it. My guess is that Cambridge would remain a red spot even if the whole of East Anglia turned blue overnight.
RM
Idiot! They are not saving the planet...they are saving humanity. For gawds sake geddit right!
Once/if they get over fighting each other then now the full desperate and unprincipaled fury of the enemy will be thrown against Cameron now.
The key question in my mind is when does Mr Murdoch start to consider jumping ship ? And how can Dave persuade him ?
Ahhh I remember the days when we used to get all excited by the opinion polls years in advance of the next election, throw in a few solid local election performances and we were on our way to number 10. Sadly it came to nought on the big day.
David Cameron=Neil Kinnock
Hague,Howard,Smith= Michael Foot
Of course, who wants to hear a pompous urban elitest telling them to 'save the planet'? A great reason to vote for, er, David Cameron....
This poll is certainly fantastic news for us.
I think we all know we have a massive amount of work to do in order to win both more council and Parliamentary seats up here. But as zoso says, if we get organised, start early, and put the work in, it CAN be done.
In the winnable Leeds seats certainly the problem is that the sitting MPs are liked by the electorate and are able to distance themselves from the extremes of what goes in within Cabinet. But eventually that will change when the public lose faith in Labour. They've been given the benefit of the doubt for 9 years - it can't go on for ever.
Hayek's Grandad, please don't put words into my mouth. I applied the terms "pompous" "urban" and "elite" to Cameron. I certainly didn't use the word "intellectual" to describe him".
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