Predictions? Comments? Views?
My prediction is Obama by eight points and McCain by three.
UPDATE 1.30am McCain has clearly won. Fox are calling it 37-29. Hillary is leading Obama by a short head, but everyone reckons Obama has it in the bag. However, it seems to be a bit closer than most thought. If he only wins by a couple of points Hillary will spin it as better than expected.
As I now have to get up at 7am tomorrow now, I'm afraid I'm going up the wooden hill to Bedfordshire (no, not to visit Nadine!)
49 comments:
Who cares!
Ooo i'm going to stick my neck out and say Obama by 12 points.
ofc Clinton will have a much better prepared losing speech this time. :)
Obama by 12 points , McCain by 1 point
Obama by more than ten and Hillary to drop out by this time tomorrow thus suffering an even worse turnaround in politcal fortunes than Gordon Brown.
When I think that less than a week ago I could have gotten 5/4 on 'Anyone else but Hillary' becoming President.
Romney a decent outside bet at 20/1?
My prediction is Obama by 11 at least. McCain by 4.
obama to win by a landslide.
they've run out of ballots in certain towns in NH - turnout is "huge".
More here
La Clinton thrashed: that's all I ask. Let her spend her future with Cattle Futures.
No very open at all.
Still reeling from Camerons public endorsement of McCain
And how long do you reckon Hilary can go on losing before she has to try and cut a deal as someone's running mate?
(Though who would want her?)
I predict Obama by 11 and McCain by 4
I don't make predictions and I never will... America is the real winner for having this vibrant democracy. They must laugh at our regime change where not even the party faithful get a say.
With record numbers of people turning out to vote, I would say Obama and McCain should both win.
Obama by 13 points, McCain by 6 points.
First time poster really interested in the Primaries. The US gets a lot of stick, unfairly in my opinion but you cant beat this for democracy in action. For whats its worth Obama by 9 and McCain by 4.....
fisrt time poster. Would be a natural Republican if American and hoping McCain gets the Republican nomination. For what its worth Obama by 10 and McCain by 5.
I have gone for Obama by 7 and McCain by 4. I have had my first go at predicting an American primary poll here.
I would predict Obama by 4 or 5 and McCain just edging Romney!
I think McCain might have more of a problem than people think. Independents can choose to vote Dem or Rep, so they might well choose a Dem ballot to support Obama.
If that erodes McCain's support, then the candidates supported by the base might come through. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Huckabee will win the Rep content by a right-wing nose (and Obama the Dem one, obv).
Predictions, Democrats Obama to beat Clinton but by a smaller margin than is being predicted, say 2 points.
Republicans:
Romney to beat McCain, Huckabee to do surprisingly well. Thompson Finished.
Obama by 11 and whichever McCain by 5.
No one I know would ever vote republican!
An article from The New Republic about Ron Paul's past writings. I know little about US politics so make of it what you will.
http://tinyurl.com/3caypg
On a general point it looks like the N.H. primary will have an impressive turnout and there are reports that some places are running out of ballot papers. Seems like a good advert for democracy and puts us in the UK to shame.
Obama by eleven points, McCain by 5, if I had to take a guess.
This (thank god) will finish Hilary Clinton, probably leading to an Obama/Edwards "dream ticket" for the Democratic Party.
"And how long do you reckon Hilary can go on losing before she has to try and cut a deal as someone's running mate?
(Though who would want her?)"
January 08, 2008 9:02 PM
Spot on. She'd be an absolute liability for Obama as a running mate in the actual election.
For the record, Obama to walk it and McCain to squeak it.
Just been watching Newsnight, has anyone else noticed that Frank Luntz looks quite a bit like Ed Vaizey?
You have to love David Grossman!
Hilary by less than 1%.
Romney the same.
hillary won't back down 'til it's all over. she's too damn stubborn for that.
unfortunately.
Your prediction seems about sound, having just spent time in NH. It really is quite a spectical.
There's such a momentum behind Barack Obama that if he doesn't win, he will find it difficult to recover. I think the threshold is now about the 6-7% mark - if he leads Hillary Clinton by more than that, her campaign will be seriously damaged; if his lead is a lot less, then Hillary will pronounce herself the comeback kid's wife and may be able to recover.
On the GOP side, there seems to have been a late switch from Huckabee to Romney, which may be social conservatives gambling that John McCain will be unstoppable if he wins. We'll see very soon, as the returns have already started.
Best source for live returns I've found is the Fox News station in Kansas City.
Isn't it all nonsense.
Maybe refreshing that there's a lack of ageism and tailor's dummies.
But really, you can campaign on the weather in the States. Just attack your opponent's ability to deliver . . . the weather. Or whatever.
Meanwhile, the only person with something to say (Ron Paul) has been blanked by Fox News.
And at the end of the day, the prize for winning is a zillion dollar defecit, a dependency on Chinese manufacturing, a worthless dollar you can only use to light a fag and the loathing of at least a third of the world.
You wonder why they bother.
Why the f*** is the BBC trying to cover the primaries with frankly CRAP coverage and at huge expense to me when they could just be taking a US network feed with frankly better analysis and far better access to the teams?
Its not because they want to stick their "isn't Obama brilliant agenda" by any chance?
Iain,
At 01:00 GMT, the exit polls were too close to call. It is currently 01:25 and with 14% of precincts declared, Clinton leads Obama 40% to 35%. These are clearly very early figures and will likely swing significantly.
It seems possible that independents ('undeclared' in US primary parlance) may have opted to participate in the Republican primary to back McCain, rather the Democrat primary. This is because undeclared voters are allowed to walk into the polling station in New Hampshire and simply ask for a Democrat or Republican voting slip.
It will be an interesting night, and Obama may end up suffering from a perception that he would walk to victory.
Alan
Ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha!
Those folks in NH take a New England, cautious, view of Obama and are right to do so. Ha ha ha ha ha!
Well done, John McCain! Nine points ahead of Romney.
Hillary one point ahead of Hussein Obama when she was predicted to be trashed by this immensely charismatic egoist. One point is all it needs, unless the ravishing Obama is a bad loser and wants to count hanging chads. Al Gore can use an extra carbon footprint to jet in to give him advice.
Ha ha ha ha ha!
What the hell is the point of posting when Iain's trundled off to his new bed? He promised he would be blogging the primaries, then suddenly, yawning and bye-byes. BORING.
Remember Hillary! has the "Super Delegates" at the Dem Convention. The Party rigged the rules way back to stop a repeat of the McGovern fiasco.
Neither her nor Obama has "done" anything to deserve the nomination and remember it's rare for a sitting Senator to be elected President.
What a great the system the US has. Even the BBC hasn't been able to slag it off.*
50% turnout for primaries.
*some BBC intellectual pygmy did call the Utah caucus system "archaic" last week.
Oh,OK. No response.
What I wanted to say is, I was for John McCain until I saw that simply dreadful NH victory speech and now I'm looking around for another Rep to support.
Of course, McCain is better than Hillary or Hussein Obama, but those false, timed, smiles irritated me. Also, I can see he is not presidential. Too bad.
Now who? Mitt is my choice.
if some of you are also interested in other viewpoints on the NH primary visit us at http://www.dailypolitics.eu. We are live blogging there throughout the night...
Canvas? Canvas? You seem to be silent ... Jamie? ... [8:41] ... Ian?
Losers! David Boothroyd, thanks for the laughs!
we are live blogging on http://www.dailypolitics.eu if you are interested in live commentary throughout the night...
Many news sources are calling it Hillary's!
Well your commenters on the Democratic race got it completely, horribly, unspeakably wrong, but then so did every polling organisation in the known world and an awful lot of political punters including myself before 1am, so no shame there.
Thanks to the hype, you could briefly place a bet of 249-1 on Hillary Clinton to win NH even after the polls had closed. I only managed to get 95-1, but that more than covers my betting on Obama.
Now we have a game on our hands. I am feeling pretty jealous of you being in the US right now, Iain.
I predict Clinton will make a stunning comeback and beat Obama! ;)
Almost all of you were hopelessly out in your predictions of the Democrats results.
damn that was unexpected! guess her turning on the waterworks worked.
guess this makes her favourite again. :(
oh and iain, if you say you're going to be up blogging, don't just do one update then go to bed, stay up blogging! surely you knew when you wrote the post that you'd have to be up at 7am.
Lots of egg on your faces this morning, kiddies. You and all the British press. It is 'Dewey Wins' all over again. Hilary has won NH. Tee hee. There is still all to play for.
Hilarious! Thank god for voters. The up-themselves hordes of bloggers and pundits can, I think, shut the feck up from now on and let the real world get on with it.
If only...
(And where was our host, exactly, while events were upturning his confident predictions?)
Iain Dale wrote:
"If he only wins by a couple of points Hillary will spin it as better than expected."
Since she won it by a couple (well 3) points are you going to spin this is as not as good as might have been hoped for had things gone even better?
Hurrah! Only one to get the Dem race correct.
Bloody anti-Mormon bigots.
Jamie - Yes. Iain makes this big announcement that he's blogging NH live, posts one comment then shuffles off to bye-byes.
However, ha ha ha ha against to all the Hussein supporters. Maybe he'll order up a fatwah on me for laughing at him. Ha ha ha ha ha.
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