I love American elections. Tonight the US Presidential primaries get underway with the Iowa Caucuses. James Forsyth of the Spectator Coffee House is actually there and I am green with envy. However, I hope to be in Washington for Super Tuesday on 5 February.
Whatever the results tonight, everything changes in the race tomorrow. From what I understand Barack Obama may well come out on top on the Dems race, leaving Hillary Clinton with a very tricky spin operation. If John Edwards comes third, he may as well give up. So after only one of the primaries it could well be a two horse race in the Democratic race.
On the Republican side it's more murky as Giuliani has sat this one out. Conventional wisdom points to Huckabee beating Romney, which would be a bitter blow to the former Governor or Massachusetts. I interviewed Huckabee last year briefly and was distinctly underwhelmed. He would be a joke nominee and Hillary or Barack Obama would whip him. I feel the same about Romney, who just doesn't come across as believing in anything apart from his own ambition. The joker in the pack is John McCain, who, if he does well in New Hampshire, will have consolidated his reputation as the "Comeback Senior". His campaign was all but dead and buried a few months ago. He had no money, fired most of his staff, but since then he has come into his own.