Sunday, April 15, 2007

Cymru Election Update

The LibDems are at it again in Wales. It's a two horse race, you know. Only the LibDems can beat Labour etc etc. Except, of course, it's rubbish. Blamerbell Briefs has the full story HERE.

And Plaid candidate Helen Mary Jones is in trouble for posting a PDF of her election leaflet on the Gywnfor Evans Memorial Site. Arsembly has more HERE.

22 comments:

Jonny Wright said...

If you don't want political parties to encourage tactical voting, you can always introduce STV. That would put a stop to all the "two-horse race" business.

John Fuller said...

More commentary on the Two Horse Race nonsense from South Norfolk LibDems here http://johnfuller.blogspot.com/2007/04/its-two-horse-race-lib-dems-cant-win.html

Ordovicius said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

It wouldn't be so bad if, in terms of the actual seats they have and their chances of getting more, it isn't so much a two horse race but a three horse race + a donkey.

Nicholas Bennett said...

Jonny Wright

The Welsh Assembly elections are by PR. The problem will be when Labour fail to get 31 seats and have to indulge in backdoor deals after the election which exclude the electorate. If they fall below 24 they probably won't be able to form a coalition with the Lib Dems and Rhodri Morgan will have to resign along with the rest of the current administration.

Anonymous said...

The Liberal Democraps have fought dirty ever since they did the dirty on the STD and stabbed David Owen in the back with a take over bid.

Up and down Britain they do they same. "Three things to remember" "It's a two horse race" and "everyone knows" either Labour or the Tories "can't win here." "The Tory (or Labour) candidate doesn't even live here" is another favourite.

John Major summed it up best in describing them as the dustbin vote. They are nothing but a protest party, without any strengths apart from not being any of the above.

They were the most disgusting party for elections, even their official website advised them to "fight dirty," but the Labour party has learnt a lot from them and Tony Blair may have only won more votes than Labour in the GE by telling lies (Tories privatising NHS, Tories £20b cuts etc).

The result is that elections are won and lost on who can tell the best lies. What kind of democracy is it?

Anonymous said...

Sorry, I can't read the Welsh Stuff - I don't speak "Flem"

Ordovicius said...

If they fall below 24 they probably won't be able to form a coalition with the Lib Dems

...Which would mean that Plaid and the Tories would have as many as 30 seats between them.

But until May 4 there's probably no way of knowing. Not only do the TV polls in Wales always get it wrong on all counts, but even with the percentages they do give us, it is impossible to predict an outcome regarding seats, due to the "win a constituency seat, lose a regional seat" way things work.

BBC's Vaughan Roderick on his Welsh blog has a booky pal of his telling us what the odds are, but he's doing it one constituency at a time, and rather slowly. So far Plaid are favourites to take Aberconwy. Next up (hopefully today) is Anglesey, which will be very interesting, as Plaid's leader is far from having a secure majority there. Ho-hum.

Vaughan has also spread the rumour that a Beaufort omnibus poll will be forthcoming through the press, and we're all expecting a second ITV poll.

Chad said...

Arghh the mythical two-horse race!

We had to put up with this crap from ex-LibDem Anthony Butcher during the UKIP leadership contest too.

I can't wait until the tory Party is run by conservatives again, so they can work with UKIP to crush these lefties.

Anonymous said...

and Helen Mary Jones is using her WA email addres for correspondence which I believe is not allowed if it is for the purpose of electioneering!

Andrew said...

It might be a two-horse race but there is a red dragon beside em' both. And in some places there is a Tory brocolli too.

allen said...

Chad, you remain my fave comedy character. For anyone interested (which will be everyone) I’m setting up my own party (to be called ‘Visonary’). Our policies are a synergy of libertarianism, Maoism and anarch-syndicalism – and our key demographic will be dual heritage women in their mid thirties called Fiona. Don’t mock. Join me!

Chad said...

LoL.

Perhaps a new party could be set up that instead of allowing members to elect who will stand as its MEP's, sets up a backroom committee stuffed with europhiles to make the choice.

Oh, we have that already with Cameron's Conservatives. ;-)

Mike Wood said...

Simon HUghes was on TV yesterday morning saying that there's no increase in the Conservative vote in Wales or the Midlands.

From what I've seen, he's wrong on both counts.

bethan said...

the same person constructs Helen Mary's website as does Gwynfor's tribute. I don't think this is controversial, or at least it shouldn't be. It's just a small mistake which can be rectified.

Marcusian said...

If Helen Mary had been a Labour candidate then Plaid would have been up in arms and probably attending a 'protest' at the outrage of such a waste of public money!

Iueann Whinge Jones on nuclear- 'we are against nuclear power unless it involves my constituents losing jobs and me losing elections' is pretty much the message

London funding for Plaid Cymru- challenge labour to be purely welsh funded only for some sugar daddy in london to chuck you some moolah!

Dodging independence- remember this is a core part of Plaid's being and creation, but who cares about that when your plaid- they want to win an election!

Wales' path into the EU should it get independence would take a precedent in EU law, i have spoken at length to the EU office in Cardiff and they confirm this.

I hope the tories come second in the polls, because then Plaid are left with nothing as they have threatened legal action against Labour if they mention that Plaid will go into government with the tories. Now Plaid have wriggled on this one also, they said they would have tories in a rainbow led by them (bearing in mind Plaid are 'socialist'- how many socialist adminstrations have tories in? What next Tony Benn in a Thatcherite government?), but would not serve under a tory first minister.

The tories in Wales have fought a decent and honest campaign, the Lib Dems have sat back and waited for the coalition deals to be offered, Plaid have fought dirty and have shown themselves to be unfit to be in any power in Wales.

I hope the tories finish second and become the main opposition, perhaps we can get down to some honest left/right ding-dongs, a battle of genuine ideas. Not whinging Nats bleating!

Anonymous said...

Hmm..I can't wait to see how the Tory/Plaid Cymru/Lib Dem coalition is going to work.

Perhaps Lemsip is missing his true vocation, brokering a 'First Minister' compromise between that 'rainbow alliance'..

Ordovicius said...

Plaid have fought dirty and have shown themselves to be unfit to be in any power in Wales.


You would say that, Marcusian, because you're a Labour sycophant. Plaid have fought as clean as virgin snow compared to Labour, who have nothing better to do than shout "Evil Tory Coalition" all the time. Just because Plaid have for once the funds to run a decent and effective campaign is no reason for you to cry in your chips because your party is skint, inept and led by a half-wit.

Marcusian said...

i am no more a labour sycophant than you are a plaid one...i support Welsh Labour, i will argue the toss as part of that support.



Plaid still accept that they will still go into government with the tories, whether the first Minister is Plaid or not does not matter. The tories (who i think and hope will beat plaid into 2nd) wont enter a coalition without any sort of caveat attached. How can a 'socialist' party like Plaid have any tory influence in it and still be socialist. As i keep asking all the nats, name me a socialist government that involved Tory politicians, and before everyone starts getting smart saying 'new labour are tory', my question is to Plaid, WHAT SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT CAN YOU NAME THAT HAS ELECTED POLITICIANS THAT REPRESENT THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY?

Dont forget no matter how much Plaid kid themselves (We dont believe the HTV poll because our own 'research' shows we are going to do brilliantly!) the tories and the nats will have a similar amount of AM's and therefore will want a similar amount of influence in any coalition.

Mike German in a Labour led government (not ideal but not totally at odds policy wise)

Nick Bourne in a 'socialist' led Plaid government (something has to give surely?)

The tories have fought fair, they havent tried to bring iraq and trident into things (Plaid are against anything nuclear unless its in their Leader's constituency!) because they realised that happenings at westminster have galvanised their parties...Plaid tried 'positive' politics but it lasted about 15 minutes when they were reaching out to coalition buddies.

Labour might be skint, but we will still win pretty much double the seats Plaid will...im pretty sure you nats would swap seats for money in the coffers. I am sure i can console myself with that...

hedd said...

Regarding the helenmaryjones.net / gwynfor.net non-issue, here is what I posted on Arsembly:

www.gwynfor.net is a website that I purchased to give my late
Grandfather a lasting memorial on the web. It consists of testimonials sent to the family, + links to other sites and information regarding Gwynfor's memorial etc.

I offered to build a website for Helen's campaign in Llanelli, and to host her site on my gwynfor.net webspace. I purchased the domain
www.helenmaryjones.net to point to http://gwynfor.net/helen/ .

My late Grandfather met Helen on numerous occasions before he died,
and he was a great fan of hers. I know that my Grandfather would be
extremely happy to be associated with Helen's campaign in Llanelli,
and would want to help Helen's campaign in any way possible.

I cannot see how a Plaid member would be 'disgusted' by this as you claim in your post. Anyone who knew Gwynfor would understand that the only thing important to him was success for Plaid Cymru, to ensure freedom for Wales.

hedd said...

Regarding the following comment by 'Marcusian':

"How can a 'socialist' party like Plaid have any tory influence in it and still be socialist."

New Labour in England is probably as right wing as the Tories in Wales. Tony Blair has taken privatisation to a new level! How can 'Welsh' Labour share a platform with 'Tory' Blair and still be socialist?

Norfolk Blogger said...

Iain, the Tories did this in North Norfolk (before your time).

In a by-election in 1999 they produced a poll from the Euro elections claiming the lib Dems were in fourth place in North Norfolk (incidentally, adding they counted UKIP's total % in with the Tory total %), then on general election day 2001 they issued fake Labour leaflets claiming that the Lib Dems were in third place and Labour were set to win. I should stress it was the Tories who issued the fake Labour leaflets.