The Independent has a lengthy analysis by Ben Russell of the situation UKIP finds itself in, ahead of the Euro elections. I don't want to comment too much on this as I have an article in next month's GQ profiling Nigel Farage and looking at UKIP's prospects, but I do think Ben Russell is broadly right in his analysis, which suggests that the party is going to find it very difficult indeed to retain all their seats.
One thing I hadn't realised, though. Apparently Professor Tim Congdon has defected back to the Conservatives. He is a formidable economic brain. I wonder how long it will be before Malcolm Pearson travels the same path?
UPDATE: A reader points out that Richard North wrote yesterday on EU Referendum that most of UKIP's woes are all down to one man - Nigel Farage. Wrong. Farage is the only recognisable UKIP figure and he has given it a profile in the media few others could have achieved. The problem for UKIP is that is has too many people pulling in different directions. Farage has tried to modernise it, but has been fought every step of the way.
53 comments:
EUReferendum wrote a similar article about UKIP yesterday
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/03/page-turns.html
Not surprising really, UKIP really is not a proper party, just an extremist bunch who had their moment, hopefully soon to dissapear into irrelevance like many others.
More importantly, if their vote does fall, it will be interesting to see how much goes Conservative (good, bad for Labour- all they will care about is how they do vs C) and how much goes BNP- who do have a chance to get a seat or two (not so good).
Trust me to be awkward. I sent UKIP £20 for my first years membership only last evening.
It has been my intention to vote UKIP at the next election for some little time but having read the diatribe by a former UKIP member in yesterday's Telegraph I decided to express my support financially.
JoeF - I hardly think 'extremist' is accurate but they are clouded as a 1 issue party and it's difficult to get people to see the connexions.
Extremist???
"Apparently Professor Tim Congdon has defected back to the Conservatives. He is a formidable economic brain."
Really? His performances on Newsnight have been laughable. Congdon claimed inter alia that the crunch would be less serious than it has been, even as the evidence piled up around him. And his recent attack on Robert Peston carried more than a whiff of boss-eyed paranoia.
As someone who has steadfastly supported the party through the wilderness years, despite many policies that I disagree with, I find little joy in the news that a rat is re-ratting especially now power is in sight. Handy that.
As for UKIP a party of supposed patriots. They have split the vote on the right and helped to prolong the new labour hegemony. They're a squalid nuisance and the sooner they disband the better.
Rohan - they could be demolished with a commitment to have a referendum on Lisbon.
What? Taxi for me? I'll get me coat.
This week so far for UKIP.
UKIP PPC for Lewes resigns.
Entire membership, over 100 people, of the UKIP Fenland branch resigns and forms another party!
http://www.cambstimes.co.uk/content/cambstimes/news/story.aspx?brand=CATOnline&category=NewsCambs&tBrand=HertsCambsOnline&tCategory=newslatestCAT&itemid=WEED02%20Mar%202009%2012%3A51%3A26%3A610
Robin Page (of One Man and his Dog fame) resigns and attacks UKIP in The Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/4903646/Ukip-has-been-corrupted-says-Robin-Page.html
…and it is only Tuesday!!!
A few troublemakers have infiltrated into the party and will dealt with in the appropriate manner.
I suspect that the Tories and BNP are behind it, as they both fear that UKIP will be the choice for voters who see the Tories as "Blue Labour".
@ UKIP@HOME said...
"This week so far for UKIP.
UKIP PPC for Lewes resigns....etc, etc"
Lol...this is obviously the UKIP modernisation process that Mrs Dale refers to in full swing. The culmination of the process will be the great leader Farrage standing all by himself with everyone else rotfl at him and his party of one.
Iain, you are right that Nigel is UKIP's biggest asset. In fact the problem has been those pulling in the opposite direction, and they are the ones who have left and who are now kicking up a fuss. The end result is to improve the strength and coherence of the party.
While we suffered a set back after 2004, having been propelled to a position beyond our capacity/maturity underneath, this year it is about consolidating our position as a serious eurosceptic voice.
Thankfully the 'fruitcakes and loonies' have drifted away and a fresh wave of more intelligent and sensible people have come on board.
UKIP is still the ONLY party advicating the policy that is supported by 64$ of voters - A Europe based on trade and cooperation, not political union.
Cameron reneged on his pledge to leave the EPP, promises a referendum on the Lisbon treaty ONLY if it is not already in force when he takes office, and has dropped the long standing Tory policy to repatriate fishing water by leaving the CFP.
For Eurosceptic Conservatives there is only one opportunity to send a message without damaging the Conservative general election prospects, and June 4th is it.
Iain,
I appreciate that you have an interview with Farage, and I look forward to that, but please do not dismiss what others, Like Robin Page, whose article I sent to you via email two days ago, are saying.They are much closer to the action than you have been within UKIP
I was once in UKIP as I have told you and mentioned a few times. The National Executive was, and apparantly is still, dominated and controlled by Nigel Farage.
You could ask the question, following their success mainly in the South West, why the then leader ROGER KNAPMAN was not the leader within the EU? Strange that one!
Farage, it is said was the brains behind ukip. He is a bloody good public speaker- but when I asked him to speak I had to guarantee an 'audience' of over 300!!
Farage went into overdrive when Robert Kilroy Silk joined the party. Kilroy was inspirational. He should have become the leader as Knapman had promised him then, after pressure from whom??? went back on his agreement with Kilroy!.
If, at that time a vote of the membership, on the question of leadership, had been taken, Kilroy would have walked it.
I worked with people from the South West, Humberside, Midlands, Leeds, Manchester and they all wanted Kilroy. They wanted Knapman out and Kilroy in. Farage was simply not trusted!
At the Hartlepool By Election when ukip forced the conservatives into third place, after an excellent campaign led by Piers Marchant ?,
When Farage and Knapman came along not many people came along. When Kilroy attended he was, quite simply, mobbed. The crowds stopped the traffic!
Then came the split and Veritas. A great shame and many good people left. What Robin Page said in his article echoed what I have always said. Ukip has so many really good people on the ground but the leadership is bad!
So, please, do not praise Farage too much. If he made the party he is going to kill it off as well!
UKIP has played a valuable part in keeping The EU state at bay. I for one am grateful for that and believe their survival to be important until the eurosceptic credentials of DC are tested.
Amazing to read all the stuff from the bonkers UKIP groupies.
Meantime latest poll Tories 44% Lab 28% Libs 18%
Are you going to interview Nick Griffin?
Few members of UKIP are proud of how the party is run. But they all agree on their single issue USP.
Similarly for the Greens. It is consistent to believe in what they believe in, while being dismissive of the Green Party, how its run, and its leadership.
In an ideal world, UKIP ought to be a strong, broadly-based, single-issue pressure group.
The problem is that the system requires that pressure groups form themselves into political parties.
Forgot to add that last week the Teeside UKIP PPC joined the Conservatives...
@ Oldrightie said...
"UKIP has played a valuable part in keeping The EU state at bay."
Hmmm...pimple on an elephants arse is more UKIP's measure in the grand scheme of things. Which is a very unfortunate state of affairs given that the Tories sit in mute silence and the invisible Hague is, well, invisible all the time, let alone when even more bureaucratic and legal shackles are wrapped around us by the unelected comrades and their EUSSR central committee in Brussels.
trevorsden
Amazing to read all the stuff from the bonkers UKIP groupies.
Meantime latest poll Tories 44% Lab 28% Libs 18%
Why the "bonkers groupies" slur ?
Is it because they consider independence from the EU to be important?
or is it because they don't trust the Tories on the EU issue?
or are you just being tribal ?
trevorsden
Amazing to read all the stuff from the bonkers UKIP groupies.
Meantime latest poll Tories 44% Lab 28% Libs 18%
Why the "bonkers groupies" slur ?
Is it because they consider independence from the EU to be important?
or is it because they don't trust the Tories on the EU issue?
or are you just being tribal ?
Nobody trusts the tories on the issue do they!
Further to various comments.
(1) Obviously they are a one-issue party. That is rather their point;
(2) Extremist - well you just have to have the misfortune to come across (as I have) the ordinary UKIP membership to discover that - a bunch of recycled BNP thugs and a leavening of very, very right-wing elderly nutters is roughly the tenor. Thoroughly repulsive.
Yes. One-issue and very extreme.
I agree they are up shit creek at the moment and look like tanking in the Euros. Not before time. Why anyone wants to vote for them is beyond me when there’s the real BNP? Not to speak of the Tories.
I mean what’s the point?
Twig -
One issue parties are bonkers. And on this issue all you will achieve if anything is perpetuation of a Labour govt whose avowed policy is the opposite of what you profess to want.
All great political parties are coalitions. You should join the coalition you feel is best suited to you and use democracy to influence it. If you believe in socialism join Labour.
As it is all we have are a bunch of egotists not interested in any compromise, such as inevitable in political life, wasting their time influencing nobody.
Indeed you only need to look at the state of UKIP to see its not a serious political party - just a bunch of oiks only interested in themselves and peddling their own vanity.
Most would be happiest in a party of one.
Just grow up.
Iain,
"Wrong. Farage is the only recognisable UKIP figure and he has given it a profile in the media few others could have achieved. The problem for UKIP is that is has too many people pulling in different directions. Farage has tried to modernise it, but has been fought every step of the way."
Completely correct. If Farage were to leave or be removed, you would never hear of UKIP again.
The fact is that there are some good brains in the party, but they are hardly charismatic speakers.
DK
There are many other excellent speakers in UKIP but Farage hogs all the media appearances. Del Young is a better performer than NF in a Question Time format and also on a platform. He also has a sense of humour that NF lacks and last but not least he is from the West Indies.
Mr Dale is not the first and wont be the last to be taken in by a NF snow job as the Yanks say.
Ghandi
Keep talking about us Iain.
We know that means the Tories are worried:
Enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7MJU-9yFu8
trevorsden
All great political parties are coalitions. You should join the coalition you feel is best suited to you and use democracy to influence it. If you believe in socialism join Labour.
Remember, the Tories have form on EU matters; the project was sold to the electorate based on lies by Edward Heath.
So who should we vote for if we are not socialists and do not subscribe to the EU project ??
Vindico: "UKIP is still the ONLY party advicating the policy that is supported by 64$ of voters - A Europe based on trade and cooperation, not political union."
Not so. The Libertarian Party. It is only a means to an end, though, not an end in itself. The EU is Authoritarian and has taken our Sovereignty, so that needs to be reversed.
Iain,
I also have an article on UKIP on my blog today!
http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com/2009/03/03/ukip-disintegrates
Oh dear. With UKIP on it's last legs and the Tories not to be trusted when it comes to the EU (or anything else come to that) it is becoming difficult to know who to vote for in the Euro elections. I cannot vote for Labour or Libdems or Greens so that may mean holding the nose and voting BNP for the first time ever.
When all the main political parties do not uphold my views which are hardly extreme where else is there to go? They will reap what they have sown.
Having to "fight very hard to retain all their seats" is not exactly the worst plight a political party can fall into. I suspect both Labour & LibDims would give quite a lot to be in a position where they might not lose seats.
The dissatisfaction with the main political parties is palpable & deserved. Anybody who, in best Life of Brian tradition, accuses UKIP of being splitters had best be able to explain why they personally support an electoral system that corruptly penalises free thought. Then they can explain why, being opposed to people being free to vote for who they actually want to win, they call themselves "democrats".
“...the project was sold to the electorate based on lies by Edward Heath.”
I remember it well - and Ted Heath - and I don’t seem to recall any such “lies”* despite all that DT revisionism since. Ted Heath knew war and saw the then Common Market primarily as a way to stop European wars in the future. He was right. I don’t recall him misrepresenting his desire for union at all.
It was always a political project and never merely an economic one.
I should think if he were alive today he would be surprised at the sluggish rate of progress on the political project.
*I voted in Wilson’s referendum.
Some comments for the commenters:
How many candidates have the Libertarian Party put up so far?
Richard North of EUReferendum has his own personal axe to grind having been dumped by UKIP many years ago and he's never forgiven them.
Nigel is not only very popular among the majority of the grassroots of the party but also the general public, which is why you all want to de-capitiate him.
We've had problems with stooges sent in by other parties whose sole aim is to cause dissent from within. This is a well known tactic but it doesn't mean we are imploding no matter how many times you may repeat this mantra.
Iain, Think before you assist Tory strategy and help the far left BNP gain a foothold even if this at the expense of Labour.
And finally:
No party has a God given right to govern and the Conservatives are becoming very cocky and arrogant.
Simon Gardner
It was always a political project and never merely an economic one.
So that's why they called it the "European Economic Community" is it?
I was there too, and it was represented as a free trade agreement, and most definitely not a political union.
I have been called many things over the years but never an oik. Complacency is just as bad as arrogance.
Look at the June elections for a moment.
Labour is likely to be decimated, at least that is what Labour MEPs tell me, they have precious little support, their activists are going to ground and no money. They also know how unpopular they are on the subject.
Lib Dems, well on past form and current performance they are all so up the creek on this issue. They will not be talking about Europe.
The Tories have made it clear that they do not want to talk about Europe, during the European elction, expecting to run a campaign that is essentially anti-government. And coast on Labour unpopularity. They have outsourced their anti-Constitution/Treaty position to the Irish electors. If the Irish say 'No' then the British might get a say. Not really good enough for a party aspires to Government.
The BNP are being gifted a huge amount of coverage, especially by a terrified Labour Party and may well do well. They are Eurosceptic, but in a hard core old labour sense.
UKIP are free trading, liberal and middle of the road when it comes to European policy. On other policies they may be a little more radical, believing in choice in education, lower, simpler taxes, abolition of the National ID database, a check on EU as well as Non-EU migration, freedom of speech and other normal stuff.
From all this it must be apparent to all that I am a repulsive, vain, bonkers oik.
Charnmed I am sure
@ Twig said...
" So that's why they called it the "European Economic Community" is it?
I was there too, and it was represented as a free trade agreement, and most definitely not a political union."
Jabba can verify this to be true as the referendum held by grocer Heath was about the EEC and there was absolutely no mention of any EU. It was Jabba's first vote, hence memorable.
@ Gawain Towler
"UKIP are free trading, liberal and middle of the road when it comes to European policy."
From where Jabba is sitting, anything that has liberal and mor in it smells like another cheek on the arse of socialism. In the real world UKIP will not get more than protest votes so unless the Tories get their heads out of their collective rear end and start being real conservatives we will not see the suffocation of our country by the unelected committee of the EUSSR stopped let alone rolled back.
“I was there too, and it was represented as a free trade agreement, and most definitely not a political union.”
Oh bollocks. Absolute tosh. As was made clear both by Ted Heath and before him by the Treaty of Rome in 1957.
Heath couldn’t have been clearer. And a lot of nonsense has been spoken about it by Telegraph tendency revisionists since. He was quite clear. It was similarly clear at the time of Wilson’s referendum - which was why Bennites opposed it.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la meme chose.
"Apparently Professor Tim Congdon has defected back to the Conservatives. He is a formidable economic brain."
and you have to admire his consistency...
Tim Congdon in the Daily Telegraph two years ago
No Simon.
The Britsh people would never have voted yes if that had been the case.
The great unknown is what state the economy would be in, on June 4th. If it's worse than now, then none of the 3 main parties would get many votes. There'll be a high turnout of voters with an axe to grind. Many would prefer UKIP's message on the Lisbon Treaty to the Tories' waffle on the issue. UKIP has about 15K members, that's about x15 of the BNP membership. Their ex members can have free access to the media since UKIP doesn't have full time spin doctors trying to deceive the public.
Despite the poll ratings, Tories aren't as popular as they'd like to believe. Many people in working class communities who can't forget Thatcher would rather vote UKIP - they were the only party giving a relevant message to striking workers. With Clarke insisting the Post Office must be sold, you'd find many voters would rather go with UKIP.
I suggest you run an exit poll on your blog on 4th June to give you a clearer picture parties' standing regarding Europe.
@Jabba,
Of course from where I am sitting, withdrawal from the EU to engage in free trade is indeed both liberal, and middle of the road.
(Word verification - congsly)
'The problem for UKIP is that is has too many people pulling in different directions. Farage has tried to modernise it, but has been fought every step of the way.'
That is only part of the problem. The main one is once again the National Media seeking to undermine the only party who are committed to a Britain run by a British Parliament.
The three main parties supported by the media has solf Britain the the European Union, what now worries these parties is that 75% of the British people now want what UKIP wants, and that is a Britain trading with Europe but retaining control of our destiny.
The credit crisis has highlighted that the EU is a lame duck, with grand talk about standing together, strength in numbers etc but then protecting their own Nations. Frankly UKIP do not have a problem with that. The solution of course should be that France, and others should be told they can't do certain things, but the EU has long known France takes no notice. They have literally hundreds of EU sanctions against them with millions of Euro fines but just laugh at the EU.
The attack on UKIP is so predictable, and certain people like Robin Page are using their privileged position to try to cause harm. He is like a woman scorned. In an email copied to a UKIP NEC member last year Page wrote, "I suppose my mother is to blame for all this. Her philosophy was always "Tell the truth. Say what you mean, and don’t hold grudges”"
Clearly Mr Page seems to have little respect for his mothers advice.
UKIP has modernised, has moved forward and in so doing have left many behind. Like all parties, 'divorces' are rarely amicable, but one thing is certain, UKIP's strength lies in two things. 1. Committed 'troops' in the branches, 2. A committed leader who is not afraid to swim against the strong tide of choppy group of objectioning and some would say objectionable members and ex-members.
We are a stronger and more committed party than in 2004, the public know that and will vote for the only party who is being honest about Europe. The media and the three main parties know that, expect more of the same from them.
Jabba the Cat said... “Jabba can verify this to be true as the referendum held by grocer Heath was about the EEC”
You may have been there but you clearly weren’t compus mentis. Heath held no referendum - as I believe I have already reminded you twice.
The first several lines of The Treaty of Rome 1957 said:
“Treaty establishing the European Economic Community
HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF THE BELGIANS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, THE PRESIDENT OF THE FRENCH REPUBLIC, THE PRESIDENT OF THE ITALIAN REPUBLIC, HER ROYAL HIGHNESS THE GRAND DUCHESS OF LUXEMBOURG, HER MAJESTY THE QUEEN OF THE NETHERLANDS,
DETERMINED to establish the foundations of an ever closer union among the European peoples...”
5t couldn’t have been clearer and neither was Ted Heath.
UKIP are damned important though. A bollox manifesto is par for the course - bit windy etc. Promising a plebicite is a matter of honour that has been whitewashed.
Why?
Twig said... “The Britsh people would never have voted yes if that had been the case.”
They did and it was. I was there.
No Simon, they voted for the Common Market.
For the benefit of those who weren't there, the referendum was held in 1975 not 1957.
At the time of the referendum, there were no personal computers, internet or mobile phones etc. Our news was delivered by TV, radio and newspapers. The general public didn't have access to the Treaty of Rome or any other treaty and relied on the news media for their information.
The "Yes" campaign had about twenty times the budget of the "No" campaign. The news media, the three main political parties and big business were generally supporting the Yes men.
It later transpired that the CIA gave generous support to the "Yes" campaign.
The main concern of the voters at the time was that it would be "the thin end of the wedge" and that the European Commission would eventually trump our own parliament, but solid assurances were given that that was not possible, and it was purely a free trade agreement not a political union, in fact it was referred to at the time as the "Common Market" NOT the "European Union".
The political union aspect was slipped in bit by bit, later on without further reference to the electorate.
About one third of the electorate thought that the politicians were lying, so they voted no, the rest were suckered (except Simon, because he knew all along).
The other problem for UKIP is that Farage is doing too much at once. The poor guy has three jobs - he is leader of UKIP, he is a Euro MP and he is President of Russia.
Twig said... “No Simon, they voted for the Common Market. For the benefit of those who weren't there, the referendum was held in 1975 not 1957.”
For your benefit, it was quite clear we were signing up for the Treaty of Rome and its following developments. Even Maastricht mentions a “new stage in the process of European integration”.
I quote from the Economist 1997:
‘“An ever closer union among the peoples of Europe” is one of the stated aims of the Treaty of Rome. The mantra is repeated in the Maastricht treaty, which also talks about a “new stage in the process of European integration”. From the very start of the European venture, Jean Monnet and the other founding fathers envisaged that, after progressing steadily, it would evolve one day into some kind of United States of Europe. Successive treaties have pointed in this direction; successive applicant countries have implicitly signed up to it.’
And again for the benefit of the hard of hearing: WE DID NOT SIGN UP AFTER ANY REFERENDUM. This is a particularly silly lie which keeps being repeated here and can easily be refuted with any relevant history text. Parliament (or rather Ted Heath) signed us up after what seemed like a decades-long campaign of constant rejection. The idea of a referendum was a later Harold Wilson trick.
The referendum was a device of Harold Wilson’s to hold his party together. By then we were already signed up. Heath had made it completely clear that ‘ever closer union’ and a political - as well as an economic - project was what we were signing up for.
The political project was always at the time more important than the economic one.
AND YOUR SIDE LOST. Get over it.
Shirking From Home said... “Are you going to interview Nick Griffin?”
He’d have to sup with exceedingly long spoon.
@ Simon Gardner said...
"You may have been there but you clearly weren’t compus mentis. Heath held no referendum - as I believe I have already reminded you twice."
Lol..entirely possible as in those days there was a lot of herbal smoke in the air.
Simon Gardner said...
...The political project was always at the time more important than the economic one.
AND YOUR SIDE LOST. Get over it.
Sure, the sceptics lost the referendum in '75, but they lost it because of
TORY AND LABOUR LIES AND DECEIT.
An oft-quoted line from Mr Heath’s White Paper circulated to every household in the country in June 1971 promised,
“there is no question of Britain losing essential sovereignty”.
In a television broadcast to mark Britain’s entry in January 1973, Heath said:
“there are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified”.
Half of UKIP's vote at the last European Elections came from disaffected Labour voters who had, and still have, been disenfranchised by the disappearance of the patriotic, social democratic, morally and socially conservative party that they had known.
UKIP's star turn was a former Labour MP, and combining its and the Tories' vote in the North, the Midlands or London gave, and gives, a ludicrously high figure for the number of natural Tories living there. It has failed to keep those voters, including that former MP. But they still want an alternative to New Labour.
These are people who would never vote Tory in a million years. But then, as patriots and as moral and social conservatives, why would they ever have done so?
So the void is being filled.
By the BNP.
Post a Comment