Con : 45 +4
Lab : 32 -2
Lib : 14 -1
Lab : 32 -2
Lib : 14 -1
If this is correct, my prediction, that by June voters would turn on Brown as they get angrier and angrier about the state of the economy, would seem to be coming true rather earlier than I thought. However, this is only the second poll to show a double digit lead, so it's best not to get too carried away.
UPDATE: PoliticalBetting confirms the figures and starts speculating about landslides. A bit farfetched IMHO.
UPDATE 7.45: ComRes is also showing an increased Tory lead of 9 points, up 2 points on their last poll. UK Polling Report says the figures are Con 41 (+2), Lab 32 (-2) and Libs 15 (-1)
23 comments:
But what is not far fetched is Yellow Taxi Time for the Liberal Democrats! Just 16 Seats left after a wipe out!
Nick Clegg even gets defeated by a margin that would wipe out any leadership bonus - See my updated blog with anyalysis!
The Liberal Democrats are doomed - DOOMED at the next election and Nick Clegg will be defeated in Sheffield Hallam and Chris Huhne in Eastleigh!
LOoooooooooooooooooooooooOL!
http://nickcleggneilkinnock.blogspot.com/
Do not underestimate the 'mob intelligence' of the PB 'commenters'. See their Xmas crosword, done in a trice.
wv: anenefic - can I claim for that?
When it comes to political forecasting, follow PB.com
Most importnatly, remember Mike Smithsons Golden Rule -
"The worst poll for Labour is the most accurate".
He has made quite a bit of money betting on that....
The LibDims are a spent force. They were doomed as soon as they selected a leader who is a cheap imitation of Cameron (as if the real thing is that special).
Mr Heaver, you are so right. I have problems remembering who he is never mind what the LDs stand for.
I suspect that my own lack of understanding is a fairly serious issue for them since I must be in the 2% 'tell me more about your policies' demographic :O
martin day, I went breathlessly to your blog to read your, pant pant, updated blog with analysis!
Oh dear. Just the usual boring nonsense.
Rumours of Liberal Democrat death generally turn out to be sadly premature. Let's wait till we see the actual general election results.
Anyway, Iain, can we be a bit less bored and start talking about Obama? How about an inaugural run-up on your blog of exclusively US-oriented stories starting first thing tomorrow?
Despairing Liberal, that would be an excellent idea .. if I wanted to lose most of my readers!
The electoral predictor models have changed to factor in Liberal Democrat Incumbancy! It comes to a point where giving LD incumbancy the benifit of the doubt ends. I think the LD's have reached the point where they will experience a very serious knockback.
Maybe not a complete wipeout but such a depletion in numbers the "Boring Nonsense" becomes a reality. I remeber the LD's were deadly serious about the decapitation strategy at the last election and even being the real opposition! LOoooooooooooooOL!
Before that they claimed at one stage they should have the opposition despatch box!
You cannot deny me some fun poking at the LD's expense!
Maybe the Tories should get someone with a Yellow Taxi outfit to follow Clegg on the election campaign with a ghettoblaster echoing out Joel la Taxi!
Maybe If I am still out of work I will do it! Probably need a Latex mask of Clegg though!
What would the lead be if we had a real Conservative Party instead of the left wing green crap that Cameron is serving up?
'Robert' a Labour activist masquerading as a Conservative Party supporter.
Go back to Labour list.
... and stay there.
Brown cancels the billboards and bottles up yet again.
Very good predicting Mr Dale.
Am with you all the way.
Just don't speak too soon about Spurs.
I want to see Portsmouth rub it in tomorrow and the fans give Redknapp, a very hard time, shall we say!
As for the Liberals:
Hasta la vista baby.
Pack your clogs Mr Clanger!
I like parties to have a connection to the real world and be responsive to real people.
On that basis, LibDems and Conservatives are acceptable.
Labour with their headbanging PC and authoritarianism are defintely not.
First of all, I'm pleased about this because I now know Gordon Brown is going to have a crap weekend thanks to this poll.
I would, however, like to take this opportunity to express my condolences to the hard-working telephone which Gordon will probably throw at someone when he reads this.
Robert - relax, Cameron doesn't mean it. Once in office, he will preside over one of the most extreme-right wing governments this country has yet seen. This can be predicted from his affiliations in Europe, where he allies with some pretty far out nutjobs and whackos. He has been virtually sidelined by the moderate and mainstream right of centre parties of Germany for example and is considered irrelevant in the US. Rightly, they see that he leads a ragbag small force of obscurantists, old fashioned people and the merely confused.
Boris Johnson is very much a harbinger of what is to come.
One prediction - after a year or so of Cameron/Johnson/Osborne/Widdecombe in office, Barack Obama will so despair of getting any sense out of Britain that he will effectively end diplomatic relations with us and deal only via Brussels.
"Robert - relax, Cameron doesn't mean it. Once in office, he will preside over one of the most extreme-right wing governments this country has yet seen."
I'm counting on it.
DespairedofLiberal
Eh? What are you on? I can't believe that a sober person would take Conservative's associations in the European Parliament (a surreal place in itself, where Conservatives' only strong policy is to oppose further integration which leaves few possible allies in the Wonderland Gravy Train) as an indication of future policy. It makes no sense at all!
As for being sidelined by the moderate right, that is because they are anything but moderate and anything but right! They are rabidly Euro-integrationist, and given that the EU is disgracefully left-wing that precludes them being considered truly right-wing.
As for Boris being extremely right wing, that is a bizarre interpretation.
I hope Cameron will be very right-wing. Our economy needs it. However I somehow doubt it. He will however not be left wing like Brown has been (even while denying the obvious) nor as authoritarian as the Labour Party has been.
I've just poured myself a second large Scotch and I fully intend to be carried away.
Well, people aren't stupid. Well, not all of them, and not all the time.
Every time Brown blames The Tories, America, etc., more people start to think: "Hang on, mate! Where were you when all this was happening? Oh! That's right! In government as the chancellor!"
(Or as the wv says mistate)
Football is approaching home once again having gone way a bit in the autumn ;)
When Cameron and Osborne started to hammer Brown, the lead has started to return. As well as they doing, the shadow home secretary and his colleagues should start harassing Brown's team. For example, Ms Smith, the inept lefty ex-school teacher who was teaching cookery says that she would introduce tough laws for companies to hire unemployed British workers first, Dominic the shadow home secretary simply reacts. He is pathetically invisible and is a bad replacement to David Davies. He should be hammering the message that immigration is out of control and we do not need any more from outside the EU.
Cameron team members many of them are still invisible. He needs that shuffle asap.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-used-public-funds-for-tory-conference-hotel-1418911.html
Post a Comment