Michael Portillo thinks Gordon Brown should call an early election. There are some senior Conservatives who think he might well do it too, on the basis that things will only get worse in 2009 and that he might as well capitalise on the fact that the media have built him up as having had a "good" economic crisis. One or two Tory strategists fear that an Obama victory would also encourage Brown to go to the country, with some of his stardust rubbing off on Brown. And then if Labour wins the Glenrothes by election on Thursday the media would interpret it as Brown having turned a corner.
I think this is fantasy politics. The opinion polls are still against Brown and the economic situation is too volatile. Imagine is there was a further run on a bank in the middle of an election campaign. But the real reason that Brown won't do it is that it would be a decision demanding remarkable courage - a quality that the Prime Minister is keen to write about, but lacks himself.
29 comments:
The only thing i smell when i read Portillo's column these days is S#!?.
Portillo makes me laugh, he was the last to say the Conservatives would not win the next election as late as this spring, he didn't think Boris could win (Or even vote for him) and now Portillo has changed his mind again as the latest poll puts the Tories on Mid 40's and Labour low 20's and LD's nowhere!
He may lack the courage however a cornered animal can be very brave.
He must know he cannot win an election in 2010 as the news will only get worse and he may just think that this is his best hope.
I think you are wrong Iain. The Tory lead is pretty poor these days and Brown has really done well recently. The Tories have been dead on the economy save for Osbourne's misguided attach strategy - which has backfired.
my prediction is may 2009. And I predict a narrow labour win. As it stands, the Tories are just not coherent or smart enough to deliver a killer blow. The mid term will suit the regime, now is way too soon, I agree with your analysis on that. It will take until late 2009 for the economy to really start hurting the labour core vote. Barring an unforseen cataclysim between now and mid 2009, brown will only get stronger. A defeat in glenrothes was already factored in, so a regime hold will be seen as a major victory. Unless the Tories figure out how to get on the front foot fast, we're in for a shit time.
Iain, I have thought for a little while that an early election is Brown's only chance of winning.
The opinion polls suggest he is narrowing the gap between Labour and the Tories. (Whether you believe them is another thing!)
When the recession hits more and more people. More businesses crash and house values fall, repossessions rocket as well as unemployment then Labour will never be re-elected.
But whilst people, unbelievably, believe that Brown and Darling are doing a great job, Portillo is spot on. He should go now.
He now has Mandleson and also trusted advisors such as Whelan and Draper. Campbell is also helping. They I am sure will give him the backbone needed.
He could do a 'I need your backing for the job I have to finish!!' approach and that could get him back. Do not forget that the Lib Dems will help him. Cable as Chancellor? that would be grabbed as quickly as he said it!
So. I can see an early election. I can also see it being the dirtiest campaign ever. People have criticised Brown for his unwarranted remark at Cameron at PMQ's...I believe the election campaign started then!
Osborne is tarnished goods. Cameron has no bottle - Look how he as quick to distance himself from the Sunday Telegraph story on the BBC Licence Fee. An open goal and a very popular idea.
Sorry Iain it is so depressing to say this. But stand by for Brown (with Lib Dems and Ulster MP's) will get another five years. God Help us all.
Well I reckon they (the Mandelson-Campbell machine) are clearing the decks in order to keep their options open, but Mr Quango reckons otherwise, like yourself, Iain - that they're clearing the decks for a period of protracted warfare
He has picked up Blair's habit of flying off in the "presidential" jet with a pack of hacks dependent on a quote or two. Yesterday, he was in Saudi Arabia telling the fawning scribblers that he had persuaded the Saudis to help with the credit crunch.
It's "I have done this, and I have instructed the Foreign Secretary to do that".
Remember Blair asking his staff to find good news stories for which he could claim credit? Any policy announcement is delivered by Brown. His ministers don't get a look in.
Ian, I agree. He doesn't have the guts. It's a sign of his narcissistic contempt for the rest of us that he thinks we'll think he must be brave too if he praises the brave. This is the same man who walked past a queue of war veterans without stopping to talk to one of them.
An early election would be seen as opportunistic, especially at a time when people are worried about their jobs and wages. Gordon Brown would be penalised for such a stunt.
I believe that any bounce from an Obama election would actualy go to Cameron. The impetus for change does not favour Brown.
The Conservatives just need to be prepared and paient and not worry about being crowded out of the news right now. The public my think Brown is handling the crisis well, but they won't forget who took them into it.
Portillo's just playing reverse psychology for the Tories.
Gordon Brown announces that he is determined to stop the practice of government departments losing computer records.
Er, how long has Labour been in power Gordon?
Portillo has a series problem with Cameron - he got the job he wanted. I think that the day that Cameron walks in No. 10 Portillo will blow a gasket...
He has to call an election before the next Budget.
Who will vote for the party that has just taxed them into the ground?
At least, if some polls are to be believed, there will be some Labour MPs left to blame the Tories for the inevitable eye-watering tax rises.
Iain,
Very well argued. Gordon Brown's PR advisers should tell him to ride on the incoming tide, when things show signs of improvement. Surely that moment will come before his official time is up? Let's hope so, otherwise this recession really will be a long one.
So, uncertainties are rife right now. Hence, It is going to be tough for the Tories to select a strategy built-to-last. But my guess is, and it is no more than that, that from a Tory point of view they had better be prepared to fight a smiling Brown. Though his "smile" might not save him.
PoliticsHome site.
They choose 13 items from newspaper articles and blogs.
Eight of them begin with: "Mr Brown said, did, etc.
Editor: Andrew Rawnsley.
Nuuf said.
Interesting piece Iain; I might brave the full Portillo article later, but this is probably a good precis.
I accept if Brown holds Glenrothes he will feel flush and more optimistic, and on a local level I happen to know Labour very nearly won back a council seat off the Lib Dems last week (Kentish Town, Camden) which you wouldn't have predicted.
I wonder if he would call a snap election in the spring, or would he wait until June when we already have 2 sets of elections in most places outside London; locals and Euros?
What do u think Iain about Thursday in Glenrothes? Will Labour hang on after Gordon and Sarah Brown have thrown everything at it? And will the Lib Dem or Tories nab 3rd place behind the big two?
of course this is nonsense, but Portillo is doing what politicians in all parties do - talk up the prospects of an early election to try and keep their funders and activists on edge and working hard.
They haven't got until the new year. The US economic meltdown will be up and away again by the New Year - just in time to get Dubya off the hit list.
If you think the UK economy has been 'saved' by the Charlie who runs us, think again. he doesn't have a clue!! Not a clue!!
At November 02, 2008 6:45 PM , Anonymous said...
PoliticsHome site.
They choose 13 items from newspaper articles and blogs.
Eight of them begin with: "Mr Brown said, did, etc.
Editor: Andrew Rawnsley.
Nuuf said.
Exactly. PH is yet another fawning, up Brown's backside media crap operation.. Cameron will be a great PM. he has to be, look at the incumbents. Not a hard act to follow, is it?
BPIX poll, great numbers but better to come on Thursday. factored in? Liebour are wetting themselves!
Nah, he'll get wiped out, either early or late. He's dead.
If Labour call a general election in 2009, they'll lose in 2009. If the election is in 2010, they'll lose in 2010.
So let's get this right Iain.
You think it would be an utterly foolish decision for XY and Z reasons.
AND
You think Brown hasn't got the guts to take this (utterly foolish) decision too?
Give us a break with these silly election timing games unless you can make 'em coherent.
Seems to me there is a possibility of the June 2009 timing I always favoured myself but this is still on balance unlikely.
Jonah is not going to call an early election under any circumstances because he knows that he is a one shot PM and is going to stick it to the end of term.
Sorry, how exactly would Obama make Brown look good? They're not exactly alike are they?
@ anon 8:14 AM
"Sorry, how exactly would Obama make Brown look good? They're not exactly alike are they?"
If the Messiah wins you can expect to see Jonah regularly down the tanning salon as he seeks to achieve tribal affinity with his socialist brother across the pond.
Election, Brown. Hell freezes over.
Hahahahaha!
The best surgeons in the world and all the titanium in the world couldn't provide Gordon with the backbone needed to do this!
My prediction: The election will be on the last possible day and will result in Labour's worst ever defeat. Or possibly a 'national disaster' will just happen to occur just before said date and the election will be 'delayed'.
Z.
What is the last possible day GB could call an election?
Assuming that the law is not changed, the term of the 2005 Parliament will end on or before 10 May 2010.
The delay in the time of year from the date of the end of the previous Parliament to this date is due to administrative procedures after the gathering of the Parliament.
The last conceivable day upon which the next General Election could take place is 3 June 2010.
Assuming that the law is not changed, the term of the 2005 Parliament will end on or before 10May 2010.
The delay in the time of year from the date of the end of the previous Parliament to this date is due to administrative procedures after the gathering of the Parliament.
The last conceivable day upon which the next General Election could take place is 3 June 2010.
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