Con 43, Lab 39, Lib Dem 16.
When asked how people in Crewe & Nantwich would vote in a general election, and not a by election, the result was: Con 49, Lab 33, Lib Dem 15. The gap reflects the popularity of the Dunwoody name in the local by election and the strength of Cameron when put against Brown in general election.
I am told the by election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don't knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points.
The results for Gordon Brown are very bad indeed. When Labour - repeat Labour voters - were asked who would make the best PM, Brown or Cameron, Cameron wins by 41 to 38. That is among people who voted Labour in 2005!
Asked if Labour would do better at the next general election with Brown as leader or with a new leader, the result is: Better with Brown: 15, better with new leader 61.
Nick Sparrow from ICM comments: "Gordon Brown is a dead man walking. He is Labour's Iain Duncan Smith". A little unfair, seeing as the Tories' poll ratings were never that low under IDS.
The main thing I read into this is that the LibDems have so far gained no traction at all, and the Tories have been succcessful in convincing the voters there that the only way to give Gordon Brown a bloody nose is to vote Tory.
* The ICM poll was conducted by telephone among more than 1,000 people in Crewe & Nantwich