Saturday, May 10, 2008

Poll: Tories on Course to Win Crewe & Nantwich By Election

The Conservatives are in course to win the Crewe & Nantwich By-Election, acfording to an ICM poll for tomorrow's Mail on Sunday, which I have just been given details of. The figures are...

Con 43, Lab 39, Lib Dem 16.

When asked how people in Crewe & Nantwich would vote in a general election, and not a by election, the result was: Con 49, Lab 33, Lib Dem 15. The gap reflects the popularity of the Dunwoody name in the local by election and the strength of Cameron when put against Brown in general election.

I am told the by election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don't knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points.

The results for Gordon Brown are very bad indeed. When Labour - repeat Labour voters - were asked who would make the best PM, Brown or Cameron, Cameron wins by 41 to 38. That is among people who voted Labour in 2005!

Asked if Labour would do better at the next general election with Brown as leader or with a new leader, the result is: Better with Brown: 15, better with new leader 61.

Nick Sparrow from ICM comments: "Gordon Brown is a dead man walking. He is Labour's Iain Duncan Smith". A little unfair, seeing as the Tories' poll ratings were never that low under IDS.

The main thing I read into this is that the LibDems have so far gained no traction at all, and the Tories have been succcessful in convincing the voters there that the only way to give Gordon Brown a bloody nose is to vote Tory.

* The ICM poll was conducted by telephone among more than 1,000 people in Crewe & Nantwich

56 comments:

norman said...

What is interesting is 'the 30+ females' Clegg's tantrums are not working. Woolly LibDems are badly squeezed. Looks like LibDems need a new leader!

Newmania said...

and the Tories have been successful in convincing the voters there that the only way to give Gordon Brown a bloody nose is to vote Tory.

A development I have been following with interest and I hope it will be of use to Mr.Sugarman here
Lewes. I wonder what Norman Baker makes of Nick Clegg’s flaccid performance ..politically that is .

Anonymous said...

Very encouraging news for the Conservative Party.

a very public sociologist said...

Looks like Labour's toff-baiting of the Tories will rebound back on them too. I don't doubt Tamsin Dunwoody's competent enough as Brownites go, but her selection is so transparently an opportunist manoeuvre a lot of Labour supporters will stay home out of disgust. It's too early to call just yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if that poll is right on the money.

Anonymous said...

Breaking news: Prezza says he tried to convince Blair to sack Gordon Brown. This is definitely a Labour campaign to flush out the bad news over the weekend. Mandelson, Cherie Blair, now Prescott.

grex said...

If the results reflect that poll, it's not a bloody nose for Gordon.

It's a depressed fracture of the skull.

Anonymous said...

After so many dark years, the implosion of the socialist project is a joy to behold. We want freedom! Will Dave get the message?

Peter said...

Iain, I think you will agree that this poll lead and our chances are vastly boosted, because since and including Ealing Southall, we have vastly improved the way we fight by-elections, being a lot more organised, and using good quality campaign material, as well as encouraging as many activists as possible to come and help out!

As LD's say

"It's all about the ground war and the numbers on the ground"

If we get the bodies out, especially on polling day, we will win this by-election.

Anonymous said...

Wot 9:26 said.

stuart said...

Another interpretation RE the LibDems is that they remain immune to the rising Tory vote.

In the 1990s, Labour took a lot of votes of us, but that is not happening currently.

Paul Pinfield said...

I am sure Mrs Dunwoody's daughter is perfectly charming, but it is deeply cynical, and some might say hypocritical to put her up in Crewe & Nantwich.

Looks like the LibDems are dead in the water with 16%. Serves them right for ditching Charlie...

So, early days, but looks like a good kicking for both Brown and Clegg. Hope so...

kinglear said...

I think the demographics have swung a bit towards the Blue, which would have made this a reasonable marginal in any case at the next election - but losing a long standing and popular MP on both sides of the house will, I think, turn it into a safe Tory seat at a GE. This time might be closer. But the main point is the Lib DEms. I've said for more than a year that they will be back below 20 seats at the next election - but they might only be back to 30 if they get some NuLab votes.

Anonymous said...

...so how come the Tories didn't fare so well in LibDem held areas in the locals. Colchester, Cheltenham?

Curmy said...

What would Gwyneth have thought of a Tory win ? (Yikes)

Anonymous said...

None of this should be at all surprising. C&N stayed Labour in 83 and 87 only by the narrowest of margins, so if Dave is really heading for a 288 majority there's no point in even discussing seats like this.

Chris Paul said...

The only poll that matters is on 22nd Iain. But Guido had this one 40 minutes ahead of you.

He is also bleating about some LP material.

The attack re millionaires and mansions is I think justified by the candidates arrant stupidity in telling Channel 4 News on Tuesday how "we had it tough" as children. That was absolute bollocks.

The family seat is here.

There is a Tory Cancer Hoax here. That's in by-election dirty tricks guru Grant Shapps's constituency.

Being against iD cards myself I don't appreciate point 4 - about "foreigners" - but on the other hand I don't believe for one moment that David Davis would not introduce some form of compulsory iD cards fairly sharpish if the Tories were elected.

Dunwoody incidentally expressed opposition to 42 days detention from the get go so I would doubt very much that she approved this leaflet.

In London the Tory spin over Ken included the idea that he had a terrorist running his campaign didn't it? Meanwhile in Whalley Range ward, Manchester we had Tories distributing Hizb_ut-Tahrir leaflets with menaces.

stuart said...

newmania - Norman Baker is probably very happy that the Conservatives lost ground to the Liberal Democrats in the local elections in LibDem parliamentary seats like Colchester, Eastleigh, Cheltenham, Oxford, and Cambridge, and that the LibDem vote share is holding up very well.

Ross said...

Am I right to be sceptical about bye-election opinion polls? More sceptical than ones for larger contests I mean.

It's just that given our historic crapiness at bye elections I don't want to get too confident.

Diablo said...

Is Chris Paul on a new substance?

I only ask because his earlier comment was just about intelligible - albeit he was plugging the funny little stories he runs on his blog.

Exile said...

Chris Paul,

Let's be charitable and say that both Guido and Iain got it directly from the same place that I did - the Mail on Sunday's site. The report went up at 10.45am on Saturday the 10th.

I'm curious to know why they didn't post a link. Could it be that they want us to think that they get the news ahead of the rest of us?

Paul Pinfield said...

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...

Looks like 42 days detention is well and truly down the pan: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3908660.ece

Iain Dale said...

Exile, are you deluded. The link you provide has nothing to do with the Mail on Sunday poll It is a story from yesterday's Daily Mail.

I got the story this evening before it was published on the Mail on Sunday website. Go to PoliticalBettingcom if you don't believe me.

YeGods.

Exile said...

Iain,

You are quite right as I messed up my links.

The error is all mine.

Rush-is-Right said...

Paul Pinfield's link to the Times should look like this

I have to say that I would normally be entirely in favour of interning indefinitely those whom I would have good reason to suspect were connected with terrorism. Not indiscriminately like the Yanks did with the local Japs after Pearl Harbour, but something along those lines.

But to give powers like that to this lot, yes, the people who locked up that guy at the Liebour conference for heckling Jack Straw, is right out of order.

They shoot horese, don't they ? said...

The time is fast approaching when someone within the Cabinet(one,two or several) in conjunction with senior backbenchers and party officials have to screw up their courage and do what has to be done for the salvation of the Labour Party. This can't be personal(although for some it no doubt it will be) it's about saving their party from electoral meltdown and salvaging what they can for the future.

Brown for all his personal flaws has given good service to the Labour Party over the years. His tragedy is that for all his "brilliance" he allowed his bitterness at losing the leadership to Blair in 1994 to become a sulk and a feeling that he had been deprived of a prize that was his.
If he he had the self-awareness to realise his "best" years were when he and Blair modernised the party and his time in the Treasury rather than think he had the necessary qualities to be Prime minister he would have been remembered better for that rather than as the failure and figure of ridicule he now is. That is a personal tragedy for the man but feelings have no place in politics. He must go and go soon.

It's up to his party to act. An excuse can be found - if he is not a big enough man to say "I've tried. I've failed. For the good of the party I've served all my life I am standing aside as soon as my successor is chosen".He can use - ill health - God knows he looks ill.

psj said...

The polls cannot be true. Gordon Brown is a political colossus, a master tactician whom you underestimate at your peril. He is merely planning some sort of master stroke before he has to go to the country that will cut the ground from under our feet. Until the Tories are 55 points ahead in the polls, and Labour in single digits, Labour are still heading for victory at hte next general election.

Anonymous said...

Moustachioed top Tory Roger Helmer is another MEP filling his boots. He has set himself up as a champion for openness and transparency in Brussels. But in an unguarded moment he bragged to our girl of his plans to exploit the crazy expenses system for thousands more—by tweaking the way his home address is listed.

The idea is to make his home in Ashby Magna, Leicestershire, appear at least 1,000 kilometres from Strasbourg—which under crazy Euro allowance rules will net him an extra £268 every time he flies there—£3,216 a year.

At present the distance is calculated from his postal town Lutterworth, which makes it 996km.

Over a blowout meal of scallops and red wine Helmer said: "From Ashby Magna I make it 1,001km.

"If Brussels agrees with me I'll say, ‘OK, backdate it!'"

Is Helmer a, 'Friend' of yours Iain will you be defending him as you defended Conway?

Anonymous said...

The most important part of this poll is that the core Labour vote is not turning out.

This phenomenon of 'no show' Labour voters is the major reason that the local election victory was so heavy in some formerly strong Labour areas. It takes effort for old people to go out and vote and in places like Crewe and the North East the pensioner vote is just what was once the unionised core vote that is the bedrock.

I would suggest that if you are a pensioner and not too well or generally weak you will make the effort only if you feel that Labour is doing you some good. I know for a fact that in the North East many Labour voting pensioners were very very unhappy before the local election and many said they would not vote - as a protest.

I would suggest that a good Tory policy announcement would be to raise the personal tax free allowance to £5000 for everyone and that would secure the pensioner vote for years on the back of the 10p rax debacle. The reason I think it would work is because I know many soiid Labour pensioners voted for Thatcher when she said she would allow them to buy their council house. Then they returned to voting Labour once they had got the keys. Its self interest.

Anonymous said...

I refer Hon. members to the following:

http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2006/06/bromley-by-election-lessons-to-be.html

Time will tell if the lessons have sunk in.

GeoffH said...

What a deeply unpleasant person you must be, Chris.

A man's parents foster 80+ children while he's a young boy at home and you call this "utter bollocks".

Furthermore, you call this home the "family seat". For f*cks sake, man. The Timpsons are in trade and by no stretch of the imagination could they be called toffs.

Trade, by the way, that provides a whole series of value-for-money useful services from key-cutting to shoe-repair that the public find useful and valuable.

I suspect that is a much better background for an prospective MP that anything you could offer given your bile-soaked rants here and elsewhere

Anonymous said...

Anon 8.11
"I would suggest that a good Tory policy announcement would be to raise the personal tax free allowance to £5000"

I've got news for you. It is currently £5,435.

molesworth 1 said...

Since yesterday's initial salvo from Cherie, today has already seen the revelation that Prescott 'told Tony to sack Gordon', and Lord Levy leaving Brown an absolute stinker of an allegation ("it is inconceivable...") on the No.10 hall-carpet.
And The Politics Show hasn't even started yet ( scene, last week, of a harrowing self-harm incident involving a troubled wee lassie...).
In lieu of any rash predictions, I will say that the next fortnight is going to be gripping.

RememberRinka said...

The key thing is the Lib dems are - if the poll is correct - going nowhere in C&N. So, as Simon Hughes might have put it, "Its a straight choice"

In the current circumstances if the Tories DO NOT win that battle there is something wrong.

Neil Reddin said...

Polls like these, getting national coverage, will render useless any LibDem bar charts circulating in the constituency. (Assuming there are any LibDems left to deliver them?)

Anonymous said...

The Crewe blog poll currently has

Labour 19%
Conservative 27%
Liberal 36%

Anonymous said...

Are the unfunny joke "Libertarian Party" running? :)

Anonymous said...

"One night in Bangkok"

Your are "Asquith" and I claim my £5.

Anonymous said...

And do we have a mad man lying?

Today's Scottish papers are not much better. As a a senior Labour source says "People have been lied to."

Who? is the question.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"The Crewe blog poll currently has

Labour 19%
Conservative 27%
Liberal 36%"

I've just added my vote.

btw I live in London.

Anonymous said...

The Tories are getting carried away and in so doing are making it more likely that Milliband will be the Labour candidate to trounce Cameron in the election. Remember caution. Remember if Portillo had of replaced Major in 1995 how different the 1997 result may have been.

Richard Dale said...

Chris Paul

You whine about Conservative campaigning, then in the same comment make dishonest claims yourself!

You have no reason to say that David Davis would introduce compulsory ID. You just made that up entirely.

If you want to go down to the level of behaviour councillors in a different constituency (a bizarre irrelevance to the issue at hand) then Labour are going to lose. Labour have far more problems with dodgy councillors than Conservatives, and always have had.

Anonymous said...

seen elsewhere

"Just Gordon , not flash , please flush "

tapestry said...

IDS was loathed by the Westminster elite, but popular and respected by the country.

Brown is the child of the Westminster elite but loathed and despised by the country.

IDS polled higher than Cameron against Blair, and should have been kept on for the 2005 election. In both cases - with Brown and IDS - the Westminster had its way despite the feelings of the electorate.

Cameron is managing to appeal to both constituencies at this point.

Anonymous said...

11:54, no. But you've spotted that we are friends and have a collaborative blog. I'll buy you one of our cheap Stoke pints for £2as a compromise. But it won't taste good.

Malcolm Redfellow said...

Am I the only one to notice that ICM asks two similar questions of the same panel.

One is a hypothetical "how would you vote". The other an actual "how will you vote".

Result: an instant “swing” of 5½% against the Tories!

Jill, London said...

Guido Fawkes and Conservative Home have the Comrades’ dirty tricks campaign leaflet headed “Tory Candidate Application Form” [what an authentic heading – not].

The Comrades are obviously getting increasingly desperate, and are turning to the Yellow Peril’s campaign handbook - Effective Opposition – with its mantra “Be wicked, act shamelessly, stir endlessly”. Wicked and shameless certainly fit the bill here.

For people to see for themselves – just check out this link to the Comrades’ by-election website:
http://www.creweandnantwichlabour.org.uk/dont_be_conned_by_tory_boy

Teddy tory leader said...

Look at the Edward Timpsie by election video on your blog, on you tube. At 0.57 Cameron appears as a teddy bear. Is this deliberate it is it subliminal messaging. Am I the only one who thinks he has a teddy that looks like his party leader.
Look at 0:57 on the
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTh7xSehEqo&e

Am the only one thinks he has teddy that looks lik his party boss. LOL.

Richard Dale said...

Malcolm Redfellow

Hint: one is on a purely local basis, as a by election (no chance to influence national politics). The other is a hypothtical general election with Gordon Brown in charge.

You are reading the swing the wrong way. The way you say it is like the Conservatives held the seat before. A bit of information you might have missed, Gwyneth Dunwoody was Labour!

This is an instant additional swing away from Labour for a genereal election. In fact 15½% of those who want a Labour candidate for Crewe and Nantwich (even a hereditary one) dislike Brown enough to vote Conservative if there was a chance of stuffing him.

Adrian Yalland said...

Chris Paul: Do you write the script for that TV programme about the police in 1970s? I only ask because this where you seem trapped!

The Timpsons have open up their life and family home to dozens and dozens kids, provided them with support, love and compassion (probably being the only positive influence some these kids have had), and all you can do is call them hypocrites. What have you ever done so magnamous as their charity?

I bet it was hard for ed Timpson sharing his parents with strangers! He is entitled to say what he said.

Secondly, the idea that they have some hereditary seat in the country is garbage! They earnt the right to own that house through sheer hard graft - something you know nothing about because you are too busy redistributing the money which other people earn!

The only one around Crewe with a hereditary seat is....er....your candidate!

I suspect that Timpson willl make a far better MP, given his history and expereince, than either of the other two.

Adrian Yalland said...

I have just had a look at Crew Labour Party's website.

Pathetic!

It's core messages are:

1. Don't vote for the Tory boy cos he is rich, a toff and not a local, and has only been around for a year (none of which are true).

2. Vote for Dunwoody cos, she is a Dunwoody.

They miss out that Dunwoody comes from Devon, lives in Wales and has only been around for about a week!

This shames Gyweth's memory and the she ought to stop this negative and discreditable form of campaigning!

Labout have nothing to say!

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

I don't want that evil snot-eating creep Broon to go. I want the nasty, spiteful loser to stay and endure two years of his own evildoing blowing up in his ugly, gurning, miserable Scotch face.

The best result would be if the Tories lose. That'll preserve bogie-eater for a few more months...until the next fuckup comes back to bite him.

The sky darkens with the wings of bogie-boy's chickens coming home to roost.

Anonymous said...

Intersting ....

Just put the "General Election" numbers into Electoral Calculus. And ....

- Conservative Majority 166 ...
- Six Cabinet Ministers lose their seats ...
- Lib Dems down to 17 seats ... (Cleggover, Chris Huhne & Vince Cable all gone) .....

and ....

If he ran, Ken Livingstone would WIN Hornsey and Wood Green from Lynne Featherstone!

Anon (Tory in USA)

Anonymous said...

Intersting ....

Just put the "General Election" numbers into Electoral Calculus. And ....

- Conservative Majority 166 ...
- Six Cabinet Ministers lose their seats ...
- Lib Dems down to 17 seats ... (Cleggover, Chris Huhne & Vince Cable all gone) .....

and ....

If he ran, Ken Livingstone would WIN Hornsey and Wood Green from Lynne Featherstone!

Anon (Tory in USA)

Johnny Norfolk said...

After the Boris win it shows the Tories are on the way back big time. I expected the Tories to slash the labour majority in Crewe. If it looks like they will win and if they do win it is definatly the end of Labour and he should go to the country.
It has been a long time comming, most of the media rated Brown, but I never have and I have been proved right. He was a bad chancellor and a worse PM.

Labour have indepted our country and it is going to take years to recover.

Labour always leave office with the country in a far worse state than when they came in. The have never been fit to govern.

Manfarang said...

Well if the OMRL Party link up with the Bring Back Pooh campaign....

And just who is Mark Walklate?

verity said...

i am mark walklate