Thursday, May 22, 2008

Off to Birmingham - Open Thread

I'm about to drive to Birmingham to give a speech this evening so I am afraid I shall be 'off air' until after midnight. Please use this as an Open Thread to discuss what the reverberations will be for all three parties from Crewe & Nantwich.

* What would a heavy defeat mean for Gordon Brown?
* What would a vote of under 18% mean for the LibDems?
* Is a victory by one vote enough for David Cameron?
* Will there be any lasting effects for Labour of the 'Toff@ campaign?

See you later.

75 comments:

Bill Quango MP said...

Desn't matter what the result is. Gordon will be getting on with the job of running Britain into the ground whatever happens.

And he will parade 20 senior ministers who will all say the same.
[except that running into the ground bit]


Gordin thinks
"Whitsun recess now...22 May 2008 -
2 June 2008. Ha ha ha attack me now would you..Ha ah now you know why I hurried the date of the By election. No sneering from you Dave you asshole.
I am superior to you Cameron.. I am.. I am,....[ i really hate Toffs. Especially Blair]"

Patrick said...

The very fact that a question like: 'Is a 1 vote victory enough for Cameron?' can be asked just goes to show that the whole dynamic of British politics has changed. Labour are screwed.

C&N was a 'safe' Labour seat with a 7,000 majority. To win it at all would show a seismic shift and indicate a Tory outright majority in a general election. To win convincingly would presage a Labour meltdown.

Of course Labour are beavering to readjust media expectations but we should all step back and look at the big picture.

Man in a Shed said...

What, perhaps, matters most is oil at $135/bbl and heading skyward.

There may be a real structural challenge heading our way and Gordon Brown is the only person in the UK who thinks he's the right man to deal with it.

Serf said...

Following a heavy defeat, The Safety elephant will attempt to force a leadership campaign.

Nobody electable will want one (Milibland wants to take over after an election).

The exceeding difficulty of removing Gordon, Clarkes attack will fail.

The entire PLP will enter an era of infighting not seen outside a cheap day time soap opera.

On the last possible date, The clunking fist will go to the country. The electorate will hang him out to dry.

Good King Cameron will take over and we will all live happily ever after.

Praguetory said...

Will there be any lasting effects for Labour of the 'Toff' campaign?

No. The vast majority of the population who dislike Labour already did. This merely keeps their contempt on the boil.

Anonymous said...

Hmm:

Heavy defeat for Gordon: Life continues as normal. He already has no democratic mandate and will still have none as of tomorrow. Will he go, of course not. He's not interested in what's best for the party, let alone what is best for the country. Only what's best for HIM.

What does anything mean for the lib-dems - who cares, 'liberal' 'democrats' who are neither liberal or democratic are completely meaningless as a party.

Yes a victory by one vote is more than enough for DC and no matter what spinning labour does to try to say this is bad for the conservatives is a load of old ***ocks. C&N is what 165th on the Tory wishlist. At least 164 labour MPs will want Gordon gone by tomorrow.

I don't think the toff campaign will make much difference actually. I think it was all over for New Lab long before that pathetic attempt at a campaign!

Looking forward to the bloodbath tonight!! :)

Zorro.

John Pickworth said...

* What would a heavy defeat mean for Gordon Brown?

One small step closer to collecting his £125,000 a year pension. However I still don't expect we'll see him queuing at the Post Office any day soon... the Labour Party just don't have the guts to remove him, no matter how bad it gets! And it will get very bad!

* What would a vote of under 18% mean for the LibDems?

I suspect their Crewe vote might surprise us a little bit... mostly due to the ex-Labour voters switched off by the crass 'class campaign'. Even so, the Liberals are struggling. They should be performing much much better than they are doing nationally.

* Is a victory by one vote enough for David Cameron?

Absolutely. A win is a win, although it kinda dents the bragging rights a little bit. Personally though, I don't think it will be anywhere near that close.

* Will there be any lasting effects for Labour of the 'Toff@ campaign?

Yes. I believe MOST STRONGLY that they've fatally weakened their brand with these juvenile campaign tactics. Even many Labour supporters have watched in horrific disbelief as each low was followed by another even lower.

For a potential short term gain they've forever surrended any possible 'unfunded tax cuts' attack line against the Tories in the future. Similarly, they've taken the shine off the inaccurate but barbed perennial 'evil tories' tag and have instead rebranded themselves 'the nasty party'.

Most damaging of all is their "one of us" tactic. Its now divided their own voters into those traditionalist core voters who believe the 1970's were the hay-days and those ordinary voters with aspirations, who believe its a good thing to do well. The second group are natural Tory targets now... Labour just handed us the next GE.

Oddly, Dunwoody has probably enhanced her profile... just a pity it will now find less appeal with an electorate keen to distance themselves from the failing, out of touch, Nasty Party.

Looking forward to the autopsy... they'll be hell to pay for this
:-)

Anonymous said...

the principal reverberation will be the sound of eric pickles straining to get to every media interview to grandstand that there was really only one person who should be congratulated for doing such a fine job to win the crewe by election. we the activists know the truth prickly. you can talk the talk but everyone else walked the walk and got the job done.

Taxed 'til the pips squeak said...

Well they won't be repeating the disastrous 'toffs' campaign in a hurry will they? In future they might actually have to campaign on Gordon's record as PM instead...snigger.

AndyL said...

The interesting question for me is what GB will do on Friday morning.

Will he go do his Macavity act, or go on the airwaves to take responsibility for the loss?

My guess is the second - he'd be daft to hide

Minekiller said...

A heavy defeat for Nulab tonight will instigate a process where many Nulab MPs begin polishing their 'CVs' and cashing in their contacts in preparation for life post-the taxpayers trough.

The party will disintegrate further as ferret-sack like they scream and tear at each other. Anyone who is foll enough to replace MacLoon will indeed be seen as - a fool.

Tories win by 1-10,000 doesn't matter. It at least wipes out 7,000Nulab majority and dispatches that awful woman Dunwoody-whassername to the dole queue she claims to come from - and deals a blow to Labour's hereditary system.

It will expose the lie of Nulab and the soft-totalitarian PC fascisnm it has wrapped us in for the past 10 years.

Dave Cameron will get the message - we hope - that despite progressivenerss having its good points, there must be an end to PC idiocy and a return to hard choices and good housekeeping. No more 'third ways' which is code for 'path of least resistance' or 'bread and circus' for all.

The C and N campiagn reveals in all its shabbiness, that Nulab believe that they can run such a crass-class, racist campaign, without any hint of shame or self-awareness of the background of their on candidate or 'stunt Toff'.

We can fully expect some spectacular and delusional ranting from Nulab in the incoming days. But, hey let's all enjoy it and have a laugh. For now.

mrsteed said...

If Timpson wins tomorrow, it will have no effect on Brown's thinking. He will continue to believe that he is right and the rest of the world is wrong. Facts and elections mean little to our Prime Minister because his spreadsheets and "achievements" tell him that he is right.

Less than 18% for the LibDems will not prevent them from proclaiming their performance as a victory nor will it prevent one of their wretched "only the LibDems can win here" leaflets next time.

A win by one vote is still a win. It'll prove that people are minded to change and that they are no longer afraid to vote Conservative. Long term, we will have broken our by-election "duck"...and we can look forward to Eric Pickles' imminent canonisation.

As to the toff campaign...well, they're only using it because, even after eleven years in power, they still believe that their selling point is that they aren't Conservatives. In the absence of any "vision" from their leader, you can appreciate that they have little else with which to fight!

Newmania said...

I would like to defend Gordon Brown. Hitting the ground running he showed his genius for organisation by creating the independent central bank ,. Since then he has delivered ten years of growth, high employment, and low inflation. He has taken many many children out of poverty and encouraged a working population with the introduction of tax credits. Taxation has only increased marginally and he has been prepared when others were not , to stand up for Britain and its values . His balanced approach to immigration and our place in Europe is to be commended .
Above all he has regained confidence in Parliament by eschewing the spin lead kitchen cabinet 24 hour press campaign of the Blair years . That any government , buffeted by unforeseeable international problems created by Americans , and in its third term, should be unpopular is not his fault .

He has shown he is implacable in his determination to lead this country through these choppy waters and has a personal moral authority unsullied by any involvement in the Blarite murk surrounding Party funding.

He is good man and the British will come to see that in the secluded confessional of the voting booth .

As a Conservative I fear him and dread campaigning against this popular politician at the General Election.

Can I implore other Conservatives to offer him their support in a non partisan and statsemanlike way.

Thankyou

Anonymous said...

• Likely to face an open challenge within a month.

• Nothing, they can afford to have an off by election.

• Yes.

• They won’t try it again.

Forge Lindin said...

the consequence of a labour defeat will be massive announcements from Wendy Alexander and Rhodri Morgan regards distancing themselves from Brown. These will be eye catching policies in a way that GB will struggle to match.

Daily Referendum said...

A WILLIAM HILL client has staked £90,000 on the Conservatives to win the Crewe & Nantwich by-election. After betting £40,000 at odds of 1/16 on Tuesday in a Hill's central London branch, the same man returned on Thursday to stake a further £50,000 at 1/25. With the Conservatives red-hot favourites, the man stands to get back £94,500 in total.

'This is the biggest ever bet staked on a by-election and it contrasts starkly with the fact that we have taken a total of just £385 for Labour to win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

It occurs to me that a disastrous defeat may actually make it harder rather than easier for the Liar Party to get rid of Broon.

This is because it will mean hundreds of Labour MPs losing their seats at the next GE.

If it looks that bad, then for many of them, changing the leader won't actually help. So a few hundred of them may simply switch off and disengage in the knowldge that their snouts are going to be yanked out of the trough regardless.

How many Labour MPs would bother to scheme against Broon just to save the seats of other Labour MPs but not their own?

Anonymous said...

A long time ago and farway when Labour were masters of all they surveyed - a Chancellor whose reputation rode, high both in the country and his party, said to the then Labour Prime Minister "There is nothing that you could ever say to me now that I could ever believe"


In May 2008 that seems to be the verdict of the electorate on "Prime Minister" Brown and this "sorry" fag-end Labour Administration that he is nominally responsible for

The "Supreme Leader" has been hoist by his own petard methinks! Both he and Labour will limp on for another 2 years before they are finally put out of their misery and sent into opposition . It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.

Jamie said...

Only being a (recently left-) high school student, with an interest in politics, I am perhaps going to be less insightful than others. Nevertheless.

* A heavy defeat would clearly show that Labour is losing popularity, even in it's heartlands. Crewe and Nantwich is not the most solid of Labour seats, but it's pretty close to it. If Labour loses here, it would be a clear indicator that the tide is turning all over the country, which is backed up by opinion polls.

* I would, sorry, reckon that that would mean the Lib Dems didn't try hard enough. The Conservatives aren't particularly popular in C&N, Labour is simply unpopular. If the Lib Dems do not present themselves as a viable alternative to a bad government - as the Conservative's are doing, and succeeding at - then they've missed a vital opportunity. It would show clear weakness in the party, and possibly be the start of bad things for Nick Clegg, who's been up and down so far.

* Even a victory of one would show clear unpopularity with Labour, and Conservative strength. Considering the voting record of Crewe and Nantwich, the fact that Conservative's are even being considered is a huge step forward.

* If that campaign is repeated across the country, at a general election, then people will lose all respect for the Labour party. Politicians are elected to represent the people - not to represent the primary school playground.

Been reading for a while, but never commented before. Love the blog Iain, keep writing!

Anonymous said...

Looks like it will be miliband closely followed by Ed Balls.

One Labour insider said that Miliband had recently been talking to colleagues about how he would reshape the Downing Street comms team should he become leader. The source added: ‘Miliband's appearance on Newsnight [on 7 May 2008] seemed like a leader-in-waiting speech - a lot of time, energy and thought had gone in to preparing it.'

Labour challengers fight for TV airtime

Anonymous said...

Newmania...You need help..What planet have you been living on for the past 12 months...Or more to the point, what is it you are smoking today?...Martin

Anonymous said...

with oil at $135 dollars a barrel I think we should be bracing ourselves for a Scottish UDI....

Steve_Roberts said...

* What would a heavy defeat mean for Gordon Brown?

He will retire to the bunker. Any potential rival will wait until after the general election to mount a challenge, since taking the leadership now means leading Labour to a resounding defeat just around the corner

* What would a vote of under 18% mean for the LibDems?

A dose of cold reality

* Is a victory by one vote enough for David Cameron?

Yes. This seat is well into Labour territory. A win here means a decent majority is achievable

* Will there be any lasting effects for Labour of the 'Toff@ campaign?

They will scrabble around for other tactics. Unfortunately, standing on their record, policies and principles isn't going to cut it, so no doubt we can expect more playground antics

PS: Newmania, is that irony ?

Old Dominion Tory said...

A heavy defeat will mean talk of a leadership challenge by some Blairites in the PLP. It is doubtful, however, that it will go beyond talk because Brown will make a drastic Cabinet reshuffle over the recess, claiming that new faces will solve the intracable problems. The whips will go out to quiet any dissenters on the backbenchers and Labour's remuddled government will last the summer.
If the LibDems score under 18%, there will be a huge row between the NuLab Lite wings and the Orange Book wings with much public navel-gazing on the part of Nick Clegg over the summer.
Victory by one vote in a constituency that has been Labor for decades *should* be enough for Cameron. However, watch for the press--especially the BBC--to try to take some of the gloss of a close victory by bleating about how a close victory showds the Conservatives have a long way to go before they can take on Brown.
Any lasting effects of the toff campaign? Yes, it shows that Labour is now utterly bereft of any policy ideas and utterly clueless about the Britain that has developed since 1979, to include over the past eleven years. As soon as this Toff Campaign falls flat, I doubt that you'll hear many Labour activists striking up a chorus of "The Red Flag" in many marginal seats. Moreover, many MPs will head into the next General Election under the battle cry, "Every man for himself."

neil craig said...

A heavy defeat will not hurt Brown as labour leader because (A) there is nobody who looks remotely as capable as him (B) anybody with leadership ambitions will steer well clear of being the scapegoat for the next election.

According to Electoral Calculus the LDs got 17.5% last time & on current polls should get 14%. So a vote of 18% would not be catastrophic. What it would mean is that the Tories have managed to pick up the protest votes, something the LDs, having no power, can reasonably expect to get.

Before getting to understandably cocky it is worth remembering that purely protest votes are very fickle, that the polls said almost the reverse of this last year & could do so again. The fact is that all 3 parties are fighting not for popularity but for the title of least despised. This is actually a situation where the LDs, having no power, tend to look good & do well & it is the Tories good fortune that the LDsare now on their 2nd cardboard cut out leader.

Anonymous said...

The fact that Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro despite considerable pressure from Tony Blair means he should be given some credit.

The Tory position is becoming dangerously hubristic.

Oscar Miller said...

Have you seen this report from Ben Brogan - if it's accurate it looks like Timpson is in for a very grand majority and Gordon has had it.
The Crewe numbers being bandied about inside the Labour party are beyond grim: Tories on 50pc on more, Labour south of 30pc, Lib Dems on 15pc plus; swing to the Tories of up to 20pc; majority reversed - 7078 for Labour turned into 7000 plus for the Conservatives; turnout of 50pc, but who knows. The Lib Dems claim this afternoon that they can push Labour into third place. Tories say 5000 majority, which is plate-shifting in itself. That said, one source told me the biggest winner would have been "Labour but not this time".

Anonymous said...

Blimey Newmania I hope that was irony. You're more convincing than any Labourite.

Geoffrey G Brooking said...

Yeah.

Get set for a bit of history tonight in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

Its all set to be the first Conservative Gain since 1982.

And top congratulations must go to Edward Timpson and David Cameron for a superb Conservative campaign after Labour's dirty tricks.

Coverage is on BBC2 on Friday morning at 12.50am and I am told the result is expected at about 2.30am.

My mate who is a well known professional gambler (and race owner) has been laying Labour like mad on Bet fair because both he and I think that Edward Timpson is such a certainty.

In actual fact its been like milking a cow from the Labour mugs!

My prediction is a Conservative majority of around 5,000+ with the Conservatives taking around 48% of the vote and Labour 35% if they are lucky.

A couple of fellow bloggers have told me that the majority could be as high as 7,500 which would be astonishing.

ENJOY!!!

Geoffrey G Brooking said...

re afterwards.

I think Brown will plod on.

Any challenge would be like putting out deckchairs on the titanic.

disgusted said...

newmania is right - let us all hope the labour party don't do anything disruptive like removing gordon brown

grex said...

Mr Pickworth: good points indeed, but a £125,000 a year pension is no consolation when you have a couple of decades ahead of you waking up haunted by the knowledge that you have been the worst Prime Minister in living memory.

Anonymous said...

The whole debate on Gordon's status as unelected leader will go away if he manipulates a challenge. Labour will not vote against him; any challenge will be a put-up job.

Travis Bickle said...

Here's a question;

If the Labour candidate fails to win might we expect her to be given a safe Labour seat to defend at next election? (after all she is a Dunwoody, and understands the people)

Desperate Dan said...

When the Tories win by a huge majority Gordon Brown and his cabinet will realise that the electorate can't stand the sight of them and want them out. As Democrats they will see that they have no option but to call a General Election. The Tories will win the election by a landslide a new dawn of civilisation will be emerge.
The only downside will be that, like the Blairs, all the out of work Labour politicians will be writing their memoirs, trying to get on the telly and putting themselves up for jobs on the international stage for which ill-advisedly imagine they are qualified.

archroy said...

Newmania: impressed by your entry for next year's Booker prize for Fiction, however you might have a better chance with the Arther C. Clarke award for science fiction.

Ian Thorpe said...

For Gordon Brown, if Labour finish above Monster Raving Loony "The Flying brick" it will be a signal that the electorate have understood Labour are listening to the voice of the public and therefore will be a sign that they can look forward to a great victory in 2010.
In private of course, he might turn to his most loyal supporter and say "another balls up, Balls."

The Remittance Man said...

Continuing damaging rumours of mutinies and rebellions forcing Brown to a) run around defending his position and b) come up with ever more illconsidered and unfunded bribes for the electorate.

Not a lot, and does it really matter anyway?

Yes. A win's a win.

No, they'll keep using it, because they are out of ideas. As Neil Harding noted a few days ago "Class war's all Labour's got left".

Anonymous said...

The working class have come to the conclusion that the Labour Party have been looking after the middle class at thier expence.The gardeans of the working people will not allow thease present so call represntatives to offer any more jam to-morrow any more.The working classes demand respect, and a decent liveing income.If the Torys think that gaining power will give them selves the right to carry on where The Labour Party left off, they should think again.

Paul Pinfield said...

I have just found this crass little gem.

http://www.creweandnantwichlabour.org.uk/one_of_us

Did you know she is her mother's daughter. Pass the sick bag...

Simon said...

This has been a fascinating by-election by any standards and will be one that is picked over for years. I am not convinced that anyone can topple Gordon from within the Labour party - they don't have anyone with the balls to get up and be counted. There will be lots of muttering, there will be people who talk the talk but I cannot see him facing an immediate challenge.

I suspect we will get some stories about Gordon going into hospital for some tests or doctors being called to No10 and for an exit strategy to be managed that way. I remember when Blair had his heart problems - it was clearly a get-out clause should he want to use it.

Portillo got it right - all David Cameron needs do is steer a steady course, stay sober in his appearance and comments and Labour will do the work for him him. The factional infighting and lack of leadership is all too familiar territory - voters hate it.

Clegg is having no resonance with the electorate. There are many people (who have been life-long LD voters) who still don't know who he is - let alone what he stands for. Many yellow activists seem to be disappointed in private that their 3rd attempt at a leader in as many years has failed to see their fortunes turn. Ming may not have been perfect - but he had gravitas and stature - something Clegg can never aspire to.

We are due for an intense period of expectation/fallout management. Labour can try to spin that a Conservative majority of less than 4000 is a bad result for Cameron but no-one will believe it. Yes, we do have the expenses to be published - but those involved with all of that will know what they contain and have their justifications/apologies/righteous indignation ready for that (Sunday Times have bought the details - according to Guido)

Friday will be a bad day for Labour, a good day for the Conservatives and no-one will notice the Lib Dems

disgusted said...

neil craig

I disagree

cameron appears to be good company - people like having him around.

Tory insiders may despise him but to the outside world he's doing the successful opposition politician's job of bringing in sunshine.

Right or wrong, the mood has changed. People want to believe and they're funneling their belief towards Cameron. They did the same thing with Blair when they last wanted to hope.

Landslide on the way.

Anonymous said...

Uh uh.

Enough of this counting chickens. The nasty Labour campaign could really energise their core; the obvious two-horse race nature of it might send Lib Dem voters who were there 'on loan' in 2005 scuttling back.

As there has been no expectation management, there would be severe egg on gloating Tory face. Hopefully it'll all come right for us though.

Rob said...

Tory majority of 3107. Brown is mortally wounded already, it's just a case of whether he staggers on for another two years before keeling over, or gasps his last political breath before then. LibDems are a meaningless irrelevance. And the Toff campaign..... when I was a sixth former at the time of 97 general election, we ran something similar in our mock school election. That shows the maturity and intelligence of it all. People are far more sensible than that, but NuLab won't treat them with that kind of respect. Patronising sods.

some bloke said...

Frank, long retired from a full if uninteresting working life, was sitting in his local pub pondering his decision not to vote for Labour today.
Not many of his friends were there because most smoke and they can't be bothered with nipping outside to have a fag in the rain.
He can't go home because his Missus will be there moaning that it 'ain't the same at Bingo' for the same reason.

Frank thinks of his son, White Van Man; he did alright for himself, buying his council house but why did his grandaughter turn out to be a slut and his grandson one of those hoodie yobboes ? If only the coppers had given him a good hiding the first time, maybe he wouldn't have turned out a wrong'un.

Frank groans as another of those bloody irritating government adverts comes on the pub radio, you know, the ones that try to be jokey and threatening at the same time like for TV Licenses and motorcycle tax dodgers; if their Compooters are so bloody smart why do they need to drone on about it on the radio. This one is about some twats buying each other pints of " two units "; 'do they think I don't know how many pints it takes to get me pissed ? Smarmy gits.

Frank used to get his pension around the corner at the Post Office where he was a paperboy many years ago but they closed it and now the one a couple of streets away is going too. Oh well, at least he can go to the one across town by bus for free.

Frank frets about how ill his wife may get in the future because the local General Hospital that they have used all their lives is going to close and they will have to go by train to the Big one in the city, even for A + E .

Frank is becoming maudlin after another pint and fondly remembers his Austin Allegro in the days when he could afford to drive then sits bolt upright as he recalls how one of those bloody " Speed Bumps " wrecked the chassis.

Frank thinks about spending the afternoon sifting through his rubbish, scared about being labelled " Anti-Social " because he might have put a cabbage stalk in the Garden Refuse Bin.

Frank used to spend the afternoon with his pal, Bert, and his whippets but some teenager with a clipboard from the council reported Bert for disagreeing on how best to keep them and they got taken away. They took Berts Whippets away that he'd cared for man and boy. Bastards.

Frank recalls the time that the Lifestyle Nurse called at his home and lectured him about " 5 Portions A Day ". Lifestyle Ninny thought Frank though " I'd giver her a portion ! " did not go down well with Mrs. Frank.

Frank rumbles through his pockets and realises that his beer money has run out ( as distinct from the Housekeeping ); he's not sure that he understands the 10% tax stuff on his pension but is fairly certain that he has been diddled.

Frank doffs his cloth cap and calls across the empty bar to the Landlord.
" Alright Terry, I'm off now; going to the Polling Station, what's the name of that cobbler ? "

old school tory said...

I don't think I'm premature in suggesting that Edward Timpson is likely to be the next MP for Crewe and Nantwich.

However....

If this young man is deserving enough to win the seat in a by-election (with terrific support from the Conservative Party) how does the Party support him sufficiently to ensure that he retains the seat in the next General Election?

He's obviously a good candidate, but he's going to need a lot of help to turn a very unusual by-election swing into a Conservative seat that can be defended in the future.

It would be a cruel shame for him - and everyone who has worked with him - if he only had 2 years as an MP.

What advice would any posters give Edward Timpson - and the Party - for his first 100 days as an MP for this constituency?

Anonymous said...

C&N increasingly looks like it's going to be Gordon Brown's goodbye election.

Oscar Miller said...

Tory insiders may despise him but to the outside world he's doing the successful opposition politician's job of bringing in sunshine.

Disgusted - which Tory insiders despise Cameron? Is it anything more than pure jealousy? Only curious.

fnusnuank said...

Newmania.

It would be remiss of me not to return a compliment. Your post was spot on.

If we lose Gordon we lose the opportunity of utterly destroying the Labour party. Sadly whatever replaces it will be to all intents and purposes, exactly the same.

Vienna Woods said...

Newmania dear boy, are you not feeling well? This is not at all like you. Extremely well written (as usual) but the content, well! I think I would recommend a couple of aspirins to bring down the temperature and sort out the delirium. In the morning you'll feel a hundred times better, especially when the dear lady brings you the good news about C&N and a friendly cuppa!

javelin said...

I predict Gordon will still pick his nose, still bite his nails, still hav warts on his fingers and still throw mobile phones at walls. Oh, and still be a bit of basket case.

Also when oil hits $140 several large corporations will no longer have a viable business model and go tits up, and we will get another round of high LIBOR spreads making mortgages even more expensive and triggering a slump in house prices.

disgusted said...

paul pinfield - unbelievable. And what is the crumpled paper on which the handwriting is superimposed? She could at least have put some crumpled fag ends on the paper - at least give us a decent cliche.

weird that Lady Dunwoody chooses to put Ed "Squealer" Balls on her site. Of all the snouts in the trough to choose from ...

Trev said...

Travis Bickle - safe labour seat?
Do you think Moyra Dunwoody-wotshername would be willing to go as far as the Gorbals?

dirty european socialist said...

I think the PM should stay. Look at the effect when in Canada and France in 1993, the government parties changed their leaders before the election they ended up having their worst defeats in history. The top hats may hate labour but we will fight back.

Diablo said...

Newmania - nice one!

Jamie said...

have many people realised that if we win C&N by as much as the latest polls show, there would have been a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 29%. that's not 2.9%, but a staggering TWENTY NINE PERCENT!

just sit back and think about that for a moment...

Anonymous said...

Open thread?

FFS...it's 22.46 and you've not updated your blog.

John said...

For the first time in my longish life time the Conservative Party no longer sounds like a Conservative Party. That is a winning formula.

Judge Elvis said...

Just finished watching QT. My wife's not really into her politics the way I am, but after watching Hazel Blears she commented on what a weirdo she was and how irritating her answers were. If this is the best Labour have got, then they're finished.

Alan Douglas said...

Enough "my little chipmunk" already ! I've been watching her nodding her head, or shaking it, just like a toy dog on a car's rear shelf, and giving a superb imitation of Mr Punch with her permanent and stupid grin. Had to yurn Question Time OFF !

No wonder they are using her all the time to front the cameras - she is the only leftie left who can maintain a grin - congenital in her case.

Alan Douglas

Miss Wagstaff said...

Even if you overlook the convenient name change from 'Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey' to 'Tamsin Dunwoody' and her recent pretentious behaviour, this woman is certainly not her mother's daughter - one chip off the old block does not make a block.

Paul Pinfield said...

John Pienaar is reporting that the Tory majority will between 5 and 7 thousand, which is pretty staggering.

Travis Bickle said...

Well spotted Trev, maybe Hartlepool in a monkey suit then.

Astro-Turf Lawnmower said...

I wonder what Gordon will think about when he wakes up tomorrow morning?

cosmic said...

John said...

For the first time in my longish life time the Conservative Party no longer sounds like a Conservative Party. That is a winning formula.

Funnily enough in 1997 I said,

"For the first time in my longish life time the Labour Party no longer sounds like a Labour Party. That is a winning formula".

Define 'winning'.

Carwyn Fowler said...

Interesting to see what will become of Tamsin Dunwoody if she is defeated tonight. Generally speaking, she was widely respected across the floor of the National Assembly in Wales. What price TD trying to regain Preseli Pembrokeshire from the Conservatives at Westminster (i.e. the seat she lost to the Conservatives in the National Assembly last year).

dulwichtrader said...

Great night. It feels like when I was active at City Poly 25 years ago.

BOF2BS said...

If anyone's awake Mr Pickles has just called it for Timpson with between 46% & 50% of the vote,

58% turnout so Conservatives > 20,000
Labour < 15,000 I think - maths not good at this time in morning - If so very impressive but more importantly I'm close with my prediction to win £100 stuff!

Result due after 2.00pm

Adrian said...

BBC news editor still can't get it right. The Pickles interview was very revealing and yet after it instead of getting reaction from the experts and MPs we got 10-15 minutes of featurettes. D'oh!

Richard Dale said...

Newmania

I have to ask, as I am incredulous: do you actually believe what you write?

"... [GB] has delivered ten years of growth, high employment, and low inflation..."

No, he inherited a strong economy, which he ran into the ground. He bought growth in the public sector to take the credit for, using our money.

"He has taken many many children out of poverty..."

No, he has trapped them just above the poverty line using the blunt instrument of welfare

"... and encouraged a working population with the introduction of tax credits"

Generously giving back the money he had taken off them, as long as they were the ones he thought deserving of their own money. Gerrymandering it's called when using power to buy votes.

"Taxation has only increased marginally..."

In which country? Not in the UK it hasn't! It has risen catastrophically, from one of the lowest in Europe to one of the highest (I think it's about 20% if measured as a proportion of GDP, so how much of the economy is dragged down. I believe up to 50% in direct monetary terms). Taxes have been increased on responsible behaviour - retraining, pensions and paying for health insurance for examples.

I'd like to see your definition of true tax rises!

"...and he has been prepared when others were not, to stand up for Britain and its values"

No, he says he stands up for Britain. He never actually does, hoping that people will just believe his words and not take note of his actions.

Oscar Miller said...

Newmania - Gordon should employ you as his speech writer. Superbly written and delicious irony. But looks like even you won't be able to save the Gorgon. Don't worry Cameron's going to win the next GE with or without Gordon Brown.

Travis Bickle said...

Richard Dale

I believe that newmania's tongue was firmly in his cheek when he wrote that.

However your reply about the absolute myth of this brilliant chancellor was right on the money.

Newmania said...

I was of course joking !!!I loathe him with a passion but i would like him to tarry awhile

Thanks chaps

Newmania said...

Oh lord I have just seen other people thought I was serious . Thankyou Richard Dale for writing what I actually think about this wittering freak.

What will you think of me

neil craig said...

Disgusted you make a fair point. The electorate always want somebody to believe even if nobody fits the bill. Lok at how Obama has done purely because he has no record of letting them down, or of anything else.

Whatever the electorate's faults "voter apathy" is always a sign of how bad the choices are.

Even so I find Cameron unconvincing but I grant i am a natural sceptic.
------------
The other interesting result from the night was the LibDems on 14% - considerably lower than Iain had suggested, than they got at the last election & almost dead on what the national opinion polls would suggest. This means they got absolutely no swing from it being a bye-election & are in stagnant water without a paddle.