Exclusive Poll: Westminster Expects Speaker to Quit

An exclusive poll released for my blog by the new PoliticsHomeIndex site (the successor to 18 Doughty Street) reveals today that 55% of political insiders believe that The Speaker will be replaced within a year.

The poll asked: In your opinion, how long will Michael Martin stay in post as Speaker?

Less than a month 5.8% 1-6 months 31.7% 6 months to 1 year 17.3% 1 year to the next election 39.4% Longer than that 3.8% Don't know 1.9%

Of course we don't know whether the participants in the poll believe he will resign in disgrace or whether he will just decide that he's had his day. There's little doubt that the 'drip drip' effect of the publicity of the last few months certainly haven't done anything to lengthen his sojourn in the Speaker's Chair. For what it's worth, I too believe he could well decide to go of his own volition in order to give his successor time to 'bed in' before the next election. If he is to choose that path then this autumn would be a good time to go.

*The PoliticsHomeIndex panel is made up of MPs, Ministers, Shadow Ministers, political journalists, bloggers, academicss, think tankers, party strategists. PoliticsHome is publishing some of them tomorrow. The panel is overseen by Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome, Martin Bright of the New Statesman and The Observer's Andrew Rawnsley.

Note: Just by way of declaring an interest, they have now asked me to join the panel too.