ComRes, whose polls have traditionally underplayed Tory support, have a new poll out tonight which shows the Conservative lead doubling to 14 percent. The figures are Cons 40 up 2, Lab 26 down 5, Lib 20 up 3. There's now a pattern developing.
Tomorrow, I'm going to stick my neck on the block and predict the parties' vote shares on Thursday, and give my thoughts on the Mayoral election. A nation anticipates...
6 comments:
You are a brave man!. Having just read the latest on the UK Polling report blog, I would caution you due to the differing sampling methods used. Perhaps you know things that we do not as you are working for the BBC now? Labour starts from such a low base that I doubt the results outside London will be that bad. However I think Boris will win London.
The biggest caution I would give over predicting Thursday's results is that I can't remember an election where so many people I've canvassed have said they are making their mind up and giving every impression that this is genuine and they could vote either way on Thursday. Most people in this position have recently supported Labour, but it does point to a wide range of possible outcomes...
Iain, here's another of Gordon's "wake-up" calls for the wide-awake club
http://video.news.sky.com/skynews/video/Politics/1314285v_Problems_Behind_The_Painted_Smile?lpos=Latest+Video_9&lid=VIDEO_1314285_Problems+Behind+The+Painted+Smile&videoCategory=Latest+Video
(also note him swiftly credit 10 years of economic growth exclusively to himself and blame America for the subsequent downturn)
Iain, Who was that woman on your right on Sky tonight?
I believe that Boris is not going to win i'am sorry
Expect some of the soft "Tories" who voted for Blair and now like Camoron to realise they made a mistake and become Lib Dems in time :)
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