Tomorrow's News of the World carries the results of a similar ICM poll which shows that things have got three times as bad for Labour in the marginals. If an election were held now, the Tories would sweep away 131 Labour MPs and win a healthy 64 seat majority. Key points from the poll...
- 131 Labour MPs, including four Cabinet Ministers, will be booted out of the Commons.
- Voters think Cameron is ahead in almost every area, from setting taxes to winning the War on Terror.
- Working class voters are deserting Labour because of Brown's bungling decision to scrap the 10p tax band.
Ian Kirby, the News of the World's political editor writes...
Today's poll shows David Cameron's Conservatives lead is not just based on
widespread disappointment at Gordon Brown. Despite the fact that the Tories have
not unveiled detailed policies in most areas, they are crucially winning the
debate about who has the best ideas to run the country.
The Tory lead is 6% in the War on Terror, on the NHS a massive 11% ahead. On schools the lead is 13% and on controlling immigration it's 26%. On tax it's 3% and dealing with the rising cost of living it's 6%. But it's not all good news as Brown is still ahead on the best leader to get us out of the credit crunch. Ian Kirby continues...
Pensioners and working class voters show considerably lower levels of support
for Gordon Brown in all areas. And for the first time the Conservatives' support
is growing outside of their South Eastern heartlands. Voters in the North and
the Midlands show the same levels of support. And Cameron's new supporters now
include a third of those who voted Labour in 2005. And for the first time
working class voters are deserting Brown.
It's these findings which will cause Labour strategists most concern and which indicate a tipping point may have been reached among these key groups of voters.
The position of the LibDems is a little unclear. They may well keep roughly the same number of seats, but they will lose seats to the Tories in the South but gain some from Labour elsewhere. ICM's Nick Sparrow comments...
Today's poll suggests that the situation in the marginals is worse than is
indicated by the national polls. And in the next few weeks the parties will see
if this poll is accurate when they fight a crucial by-election in Crewe and
Nantwich.Gwyneth Dunwoody held it a comfortable 7,078 majority in 2005. According to our findings, it is now easily in reach of David Cameron.
Hmm. I'm not counting any chickens on that one. But this poll is real evidence of the progress the Tories are making in all sorts of areas. I'm sure the New Labour Comical Alis will be out in force saying how disappointing this must be for the Tories - poor, deluded fools.
UPDATE 6.33pm: YouGov has a poll for the Sunday Telegraph which shows a collapse in Labour vote in Scotland as well. SNP 35%, Labour 28%, Conservative 22%, LibDem 12%, Green 3%. This is a massive rise in Conservative support and would win them seven Westminster seats.UPDATE 9pm: The Sunday Telegraph poll shows a ten point Tori leade. More HERE.