Monday, April 28, 2008

Boris v Ken or YouGov v MORI?

The London Mayoral race is turning into a battle of the pollsters. Today's YouGov poll, showing a growing lead for Boris on both first and second preferences is in stark contrast to the two trade union commissioned polls undertaken by MORI which show a rather different picture. One of them is going to have a huge amount of egg on their faces on Friday night. My instinct is to trust YouGov as they have so often been bang on the money in most of their political polls, whereas MORI have sometimes been, shall we say, way out. The punters on PoliticalBetting.com seem to share that view but are already turning their minds to what would be a good result for Labour or a bad result, and similarly with the Tories. This post from HF made me smile...

For Brown, BAD = Ken loses by a gap of >3%, OK = loss under 3%, GOOD = A Ken win.

For Cameron BAD = Boris loses, OK = Boris wins by under 5%, Good = Boris wins by over 5%, VERY GOOD = Boris wins by over 10%.

Rubbish. If Ken wins it's a good result for Labour and bad result for the Tories. If Boris wins it's vice versa. In this race, margins don't matter.

19 comments:

Blue Eyes said...

I suspect the margins will be tiny in either case.

Not a sheep said...

For Cameron a bad result may be Boris winning...

HF said...

Well we do agree that
a) it is a Yougov Vs Mori fight and that
b) a win for Boris is Good for Cameron and BAD for Brown.

Iain, I was trying with the % on PBC to draw out ahead of the results what the scale of the result would mean.

A tiny win for Boris of say 1% could be spun as only a small reverse in the media. Look at the outcome of Clegg Vs Huhne. 500 votes leaves Clegg without a strong mandate.

at least I made you smile.

GARY said...

Oddly, and counter-intuitively, I think that too big a victory for Boris may work against Cameron. Cameron benefits enormously from the perception that he has the momentum behind him, that he's the man of the future. If Boris wins big, somehow the Conservatives become the party of now, and the pressure may be on them to start coming forward with more concrete policies and performances, which is never good for the opposition. Opposition should be about attitude, impression, and an air of competence. Too much focus on policy, and perhaps too much Boris Johnson, could damage that.

BOF2BS said...

Betfair goes with YouGov.

7/4 on for Boris 7/4 against for Ken

Anonymous said...

I'd believe the MORI polls.

YouGov have been including non-Londoners in their polling including my mum who lives in Cameron's constituency.

Lord Kitchener said...

YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU.
VOTE BORIS AND DO YOUR DUTY FOR YOUR COUNTRY.
WHERE YOU FIRST BRAVE SOULS TREAD, OTHERS WILL FOLLOW.

Anonymous said...

Boris should offer Ken a job looking after the London Olympics. That is one project Boris would do well to keep at arms length. Leave it all to Tessa, Ken and the multimillionaire global advisor for NIKE (Seb Coe)

Newmania said...

I think anything could happen actually .Polling London accurately with its patchwork of vested interests is a big ask and my fear is that Ken`s dug in position with paid for votes and interest groups is larger than it may appear.
At least if Brown cannot win. KL has been at such pains to distance himself from Labour and I dread to think what his antics will be like in a last term

judith said...

Score so far this morning, after a walk down my local (E London) High St:

Hairdresser and husband = Boris
Barber and wife = Boris
Guy who runs a dress shop = hates all politicians, won't vote
Life-long Socialist = anyone but Ken!

Theo said...

It depends who is doing the counting!!!

Chris Paul said...

In this case Iain I feel that ipsos MORI are far more likely to be correct. YouGov are on internet only aren't they? Unlike in the past. And a self selected total sample. Highly manipulable by Grant 1234 Shapps and his sock worzels.

Oscar Miller said...

Chris Paul - funny how Labour thought YouGov was really reliable when they gave Gordon a ten point lead last September.

My estimation - for what it's worth - is that Newmania is right. It's virtually impossible to predict due to the complexity of the London vote. Ken of course will have a Mugabe like tenacity when it comes to hanging on to power. Could get very nasty.

Anonymous said...

Chris Paul - Yeah, and the trade union sponsored one of 'certain to votes' that included many people who are not registered to vote is always going to be the most accurate. Right?

Never mind the fact that MORI always favour Labour because they ring people at home during the day, and as such catch a large proportion of the unemployed.

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

Iain - a couple of friends and I are planning a party on election night.

Will the results be announced on Thursday night/Friday morning or as you say in your article Friday night which may be due to the non FPTP voting system?

Anonymous said...

Tone - As I understand it, the votes are collected on Thursday night, but the count doesn't get underway until Friday morning.

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

Anonymous 9.45
Many thanks.
Celebrating at 10.45 am doesn't have that much of a ring but I can live with it if it frees England from the the rule Of The Swing Voter in The Marginal Seat.

Anonymous said...

Tone - I'm afraid it's a slightly longer wait. The votes are expected to take about 10-12 hours to count; starting at 8am. So a result could be out just in time to make your weekend, or ruin it completely.

Anonymous said...

As a Londoner I don't think it will be close. Boris will win by a mile. Last time lots of conservative voters couldn't be bothered to get out for Steve Norris but this time the turnout will be enormous.

I'd give Boris a minimum 10% margin.