This evening's Channel 4 YouGov poll shows the Tories nine points ahead of Labour on 41%, their best lead for 15 years. The poll was taken after the lost data revelations. A majority (55%) reckoned Alistair Darling should share some of the responsibility and nearly half (49%) said the same of Prime Minister Gordon Brown. PA reports that...
Only a slim majority of voters still consider the Brown/Darling team to be very
(15%) or fairly (36%) competent when it comes to managing Britain's finances.
David Cameron and his shadow chancellor George Osborne enjoy the confidence of
46% on the same issue - although only 9% rate them "very competent" and 37%
"fairly" so. The Tories are up five points on the last YouGov poll for Channel 4
News in early October - two days before Mr Brown ruled out an early general
election. Labour have dropped a massive eight points since then with the Liberal
Democrats enjoying a one-point boost to 14% after ditching Sir Menzies Campbell
I do not believe that the Conservatives have a nine point lead in reality, and this poll is a reaction to the lost data scandal. Taking other recent polls into account, I think the real position is more like a five or six point lead. The LibDems are still rubbing along around 13-14% despite their increased exposure as a result of their leadership contest. Whatever the lead, we're now getting to the stage where some polls are showing 42% or even 43% of the vote for the Tories. To get a majority of seats, 42% is the minimum requirement.
UPDATE: The Times has a poll tomorrow which shows...
1. Confidence in Darling and Brown to run the economy has plummeted from 61% to 28%
2. Brown's competence rating has gone down from 56% to 26%.
3. Brown's rating for honesty and being principled has dropped from 37% to 20%
Anyone care to argue that Tuesday wasn't Black?