Thursday, November 29, 2007

Telegraph Confirms 11 Point Tory Lead


Seems I was right about the Telegraph poll. The key thing here is that only 8 weeks ago, Labour were 11 points ahead. Now the Tories are. This turnaround is unprecedented in electoral politics, anywhere. It's the largest Tory lead since Margaret Thatcher was at her most popular in 1987. The Telegraph has the full story HERE. Antony King says the reversal of fortunes ofr Labour as "among the most devastating for any Government in the history of opinion polling". The Telegraph's story says...
More than 60 per cent of Britons are now either "very worried" or "somewhat worried" that there will be an economic downturn in the next two years with the
majority of the electorate now expressing doubts over the Government's ability to deal with such a crisis. The poll also puts the Tories slightly ahead of Labour on the issue of economic competence. A third - 33 per cent - of those polled said Tory leader David Cameron was now more likely to run Britain's economy well compared to 32 per cent who supported Mr Brown. Before the 2005 General Election, 49 per cent of people backed Labour to manage the economy well compared to 27 per cent for the Tories and management of the economy was previously seen as Labour's strongest electoral card.
Not a good night for Labour, is it?
UPDATE: Hmmm. No sign tonight of Chris Paul, David Boothroyd, Dirty European Socialist or even any of the normal anonymous Labour trolls who normally appear at times like this. Obviously they have moved along, as there was nothing to see.

40 comments:

David said...

Excellent poll result. Also important to remember that this was conducted from Monday morning until Wednesday afternoon, so the further revelations we have seen yesterday and today won't have been factored in.

canvas said...

The irony - the irony...

Do you think Gordon Brown now realises that he should have called that general election for November 1st??

Biggest mistake of his life.

Anonymous said...

What's worrying is that 32% of the population can still contemplate voting for Mr Bean and his troops. Are they out of their tiny minds?

Clothilde Simon

MorrisOx said...

I'm worried about Britons only being 'somewhat' worried about the possibility of an economic downturn.

The bloody thing's already happening!

As for poor old Brown...isn't it about time someone Photoshopped him on to the grainy image of Adolf staring out of the bunker at a pile of rubble?

Ed said...

I don't think a lot of Labour commentators have quite realised just how bad this whole state of affairs is. Is there some denial going on? I fear so.

It's very, very serious. Life-changing. Earth-moving politics. Just shattering. Biggest Tory poll lead in twenty years. Biggest poll shift in the shortest period of time I can ever recall.

It would take something absolutely spectacular on Brown's part - or something catastrophically disastrous on Brown's part - for him to ever, ever, ever recover now.

Once an electorate decides it's absolutely fed up with a government, nothing can change its mind. That opinion has now been reached.

Barring an absolute miracle - it's over for Brown. The next election is lost for Labour. Period. It only remains to be seen whether it's a hung parliament or a Tory majority.

Voynod said...

O dear.

Newmania said...

Woweee, just caught up with the latest posts . You are are on fire Iain ,this is magnificent stuff and Dizzy as well.

I met Dizzy a while ago and said I was dubious as to whether any of it made much difference . I may , for the one and only time in my life , have been wrong .

The Economist has a short summary which makes the main point . None of the last weeks travails in themselves area cause for revolution but it reconnects brown with the previous ten years . This astonishing swing is not astonishing at each end . It s the big brown bounce that was astonishing

There are odds out that brown will not lead Labour into the next election and again the leftish economist is crushing about his performance . Not so much the things you can see as the whispers sneaking out from the civil service that he is impossible to work with. Can you , or anyone see Brown being booted out . They know they need a centre Politician to win I can see a coup there are murmurs around the web and the opress , rumour ….maybe …but it’s a rumour that is gathering momentum

I hope the country can see that its not just a tired and confused regime that needs to go but there is such good that the Conservative team can do. I have a a disgusting urge to hum..” Things are going get better ….” nasty

James said...

Things can only get worse for Labour. I get the impression Labour are finished.

Newmania said...

Thids is actually a bigger swing than at the Falklands the previous record holder

Anonymous said...

IAIN - did you just see Nick Robinson on the BBC?

He said that that Brown’s campaign team were offered money directly by Abrahams (through Kidd). If true Gordon was lying in his Press Conference!!!

Ed said...

At least the party funding crisis is over - there's little point in any of the parties having any adverts or campaigns.

Daily Referendum said...

I think that it is quite clear now that Tony Blair was a much better PM than we ever gave him credit. He must have been to keep the country running with this bunch of idiots working for him.

Praguetory said...

As a party, what we need to be doing now is recruiting new members/activists. This is a golden opportunity to reap some political capital that will stick.

Trumpeter Lanfried said...

It's going to get worse.

Brown will retreat into his bunker, with a tiny circle of unswervingly loyal acolytes. He will become increasingly divorced from reality, antagonising the civil service, the chattering classes and most of the cabinet. Soon, when he needs them most, he will have no true friends.

But he will cling tenaciously to office, making poor decisions which may do lasting harm.

Simple Tory said...

Iain,
I just want to gloat!
However, as with ALL other Labour balls-ups that end in their downfall, guess who'll be asked to come and sort it out and take the flak?
Yep.... the Tories!
Can't wait till May 2010!!

Anonymous said...

I assume a 'party' is, by definition, a collection of opinionated individuals who suppress their differences in pursuit of a common purpose. If so, then the Labour Party no longer exists.

It now remains for David Cameron to demonstrate that the Conservative Party is ready to govern.

Anonymous said...

Breaking News on Newsnight & Sky

Peter Hain now in the brown stuff! The plot thickens

General Election in 2010, Milliband -v- Cameron, Conservative 120 seat majority!!!!

Croydonian said...

Those figures give a 60 seat Tory majority on baxter.

Note how the LD vote is very variable, poll to poll.

David Boothroyd fan club said...

David Boothroyd, whom I have immense respect, cannot get his party out of this one.

Never mind. We love you David really.

Richard Dale said...

It is always said that challengers don't win elections, incumbents lose them. I think we have finally seen Labour lose the election!

Chris Paul said...

So kind of you to include a link this time Iain. I have a life here. Kids and all that stuff. Life goes on. I have blogged this weird situation but I must say that I don't think LD or Cons have any great high ground here. All of us have seen problems with funds.

And as you said yourself when the polls were running so badly for your lot: "I don't do polls". And specifically that you were going to stop covering them so much.

Difference is that that I hardly ever do polls anyway - good or bad - and that you broke your promise within hours and have scarcely missed one since.

There is almost bound to be an economic downturn at some point in life. When I was doing my A Level economics and subsids at degree level the cycle used to be around HALF what we've already seen without a slump under Labour.

Thanks to Gordon Brown mostly, albeit with quite a good legacy, we have managed quite well in previous vagaries that have affected other nations far more.

This has been astounding really given the globalisation of everything. Even as I tap Newsnight are being fairly even handed on the countries fortunes to come.

Promise us that you'll keep covering the polls enthusiastically when they run against you.

Iain Dale said...

Chris, a valiant effort. On polls, if you look back I covered them when times were bad for the Tories. I don;t cover every poll now though. Only the ones where there is something newsworthy. I think this one falls under that category, don't you?

Anonymous said...

I always thought Blair was simply a ghastly sanctimonious twit. It was quite difficult to hate him. But Broon was always another matter - a thoroughly nasty and spiteful piece of work. I am so looking forward to the ugly bastard going through two years of abject, unimaginable hell, as his evil works collapse on his head.

Personally I doubt Labour will get rid of the useless creep. Who'd step up to lose for him?

David Boothroyd said...

I was out tonight at a long meeting discussing the Crossrail project, crucial to the economic development of London, which the Labour Mayor and the Labour government have succeeded in getting funded. The building works will severely impact my ward, and that's not a metaphor.

Obviously I should have been here so that the anonymous tory-supporting trolls who normally infest the comments section could fill them up with personal attacks that never come near to addressing the facts I mention.

freedom to prosper said...

The Cons threw power away last time and now Labour is doing the same but there are lessons. We do NOT want rafts of legislation we want to be left alone to look after our family and friends. Every family in the UK should now be better off following the NI peace process but no that would be to simple lets join the "WAR ON TERROR" and waste billions on that.

Newmania said...

Economics as a subsid ..poor love, its sad and yet funny.The economic cycle was of course supposed to be defeated according to Labour and in any case this is nothing to do with the economy which is not itself causing a lot of suffering ( as Labour also say).

It is simply a reminder that Brown is the PM we were promised we would not get never wanted and detested. The sheer relief of getting rid of Blair caused many to have a Lady Di moment but sanity has returned.

Chris Paul and David ( Greyfriars Bobby ) Boothroyd may be in love with some sixth form socialist fantasy of a benevolent dictatorship of the workers but they are not so stupid as to seriously misunderstand the events unfolding before us I hope


( Oddly I am a worker and they are not , and that is the problem for New Labour . Ordinary people hate them)

Anonymous said...

Gosh David. That's really big of Labour, to allow some of the tax levied on Londoners to be spent in London. Maybe. One day. Whenever.

David Boothroyd said...

Well, Paul Newman of Lewes, why do you say that I am not a worker? Oh, and anonymous 12:04, you should be aware that there is a very respectable level of investment of public money in London's infrastructure. That's the result of having a Labour government and a Labour mayor.

The Tories had barely got into the driving seat in London Councils and they wanted to take all the pensioners' freedom passes off them. If Boris gets in, expect more Tory cuts.

Roger Thornhill said...

Oh, and anonymous 12:04, you should be aware that there is a very respectable level of investment of public money in London's infrastructure. That's the result of having a Labour government and a Labour mayor.

No, David, it is a "not so low level of investment of London Taxpayers' money in London's infrastructure.". There is no such thing as "public money"!

It took Gordon 10 years to stump up the money for Crossrail and the only real reason this happened now was because the rights to build it were due to expire, otherwise requiring a new round of bills and planning. Crossrail is achingly late and it is shameful for all political parties.

Once it is open it will be immediately jam packed. Better start planning the next cross-London rail link now and plan to build this Crossrail faster.

Newmania said...

why do you say that I am not a worker?

Because noone who works for a living would vote for the Labour Party still less actively support it. The Labour Party wishes to take your money away and distribute it to charitable causes of their choosing and the idle entourage of public sector slackers immigrants and so on. Well who on earth would sign up for that ?


Now I take it you are not insane so I assume you are in some sense living off the honest toil and sweat of hard working families . If I had to guess I`d say an " Equal Opportunities Councillor “…something tucked away in the NHS,…. A systems advisory mediator ….a Compliance Directive Auditor ….. I believe the job title comes from a roll with a convenient perforated edge and there are many more.

I am prolier than thou Boothroyd …and greatly enjoying your Diva-esque flouncing . Please continue if possible with even more shrill pathos ….

As to London its a toilet and I am only part of the diaspora of the English .The generosity of Ken Livingstone with other people`s money in London will however still be born by me however as Labour direct tax revenues into their cold atomised benefits crime ridden educationally third world London.No wonder both Abbot and Thornberry got their childrenn into private school and Grammar .


In the gorgeous swell and sigh of the Downs where I now reside many of the architects of delightful London live out their retirement but the way.

Funny that.

Paddy Briggs said...

Calm down dear it’s only an opinion poll! As far as I am aware there are no important elections coming up in the immediate future and, as any fule knows, the only vote that matters is the one that goes into the ballot box.

Is this voter volatility? Nope. It’s response to pollster volatility. It’s about as important as the voting for Strictly Come Dancing. I never “believed” in Gordon’s 11 point lead and I don’t “believe” in Dave’s 11 point lead.

The big issue re General Election 2009/2010 is the play in the marginals. One party could comfortably win the popular vote but lose the election because the other party has a better marginal seat strategy. That’s the sort of democracy that we want to export around the world isn’t it?

canvas said...

Iain - isn't it time to re-run that famous quote by David Miliband on Question Time last year:

"Oh, as soon as Gordon Brown becomes PM you'll all be screaming to bring back Tony Blair!"

"Oh, as soon as Gordon Brown becomes PM you'll all be screaming to bring back Tony Blair!"

"Oh, as soon as Gordon Brown becomes PM you'll all be screaming to bring back Tony Blair!"

"Oh, as soon as Gordon Brown becomes PM you'll all be screaming to bring back Tony Blair!"

We need to keep reminding Miliband that he IS a genius. hahaha.

David Boothroyd said...

Roger Thornhill, you're better at dodging train ticket inspectors than at analysing major railway projects. Crossrail was proposed in the early 1990s but the Bill to authorise it was defeated by out-of-London Conservative MPs and one maverick Labour MP who was subsequently expelled. There was no deadline. The money to pay for Crossrail is coming mostly from future fares and also from business, who will of course get the benefit from increased productivity. It's a real success for the Labour Mayor and the Labour government to have succeeded where the Conservatives failed and get Crossrail going, to the great benefit of London.

Actually, Paul Newman of Lewes, I work in the property industry advising developers of the attitudes of local authorities to development proposals, so that they can regenerate rundown areas. I don't know where you work; please enlighten us all how productive you are.

Roger Thornhill said...

David Boothroyd says: Roger Thornhill, you're better at dodging train ticket inspectors than at analysing major railway projects.

Get her! What makes you so bitchy, David? The fact that the lie of "public money" is exposed, praps? Behave yourself.


Crossrail was proposed in the early 1990s

Only under that name and it is disngenuous and misleading to put up that statement, frankly. A deep level Paddington-Liverpool St line has been knocking around for over 30 years. Even the BBC dug up the old TV news reports of the costed proposals from circa 1986.

but the Bill to authorise it was defeated by out-of-London Conservative MPs and one maverick Labour MP who was subsequently expelled.

So are you in favour of English only MPs voting on English matters?

There was no deadline.

And you say I know nothing? The safeguarding and planning permission would have expired about a month after the go-ahead was finally given. They have had to renew the safeguarding on other sections as it is.

The money to pay for Crossrail is coming mostly from future fares and also from business, who will of course get the benefit from increased productivity.

So why did you trumpet about public funding? Public underwriting more like.


It's a real success for the Labour Mayor and the Labour government to have succeeded where the Conservatives failed and get Crossrail going, to the great benefit of London.

Yes, it is a 'success' of sorts...took them 10 years! Lets see if they can get it done by 2012.

William Gruff said...

Whilst it is always delightful to see the one-eyed Scotch bastard on the ropes it would be a mistake to interpret the poll results as a Conservative 'lead', as anyone who is honest will concede. When asked nine out of ten cats said they would rather their owners could taste the difference between Stork and an accountable 'executive'.

There was once a poll that asked whether respondents would prefer Neil Kinnock or Margaret Thatcher as a neighbour. As a Labour Party member even Gruff would have chosen Mrs Thatcher.

Polls are worthless.

Croydonian said...

"The Tories had barely got into the driving seat in London Councils and they wanted to take all the pensioners' freedom passes off them".

Erm, no. That is the Livingstone spin: "Chairman of London Councils, Councillor Merrick Cockell, said:

“The Freedom Pass provides a vital lifeline to some of the most vulnerable people in our society. The scheme helps to make a huge difference to people’s lives and these changes will boost this even further.

"The boroughs have run the scheme for decades and despite the claims of the Mayor of London we have consistently said that the Freedom Pass is safe in the hands of London Councils and the boroughs.

“Extending the time that people are able to use the Pass is clear evidence of our commitment to the scheme and in providing our older and disabled residents with the ability to lead as independent and active life as possible.”
Source.

Newmania said...

David in Twenty years I have never met anyone in "Property Development" and I often meet them ,including a few of my clients , who would think of voting Labour. If you are a lonely little cherub who creates wealth for purpose of handing it to Gordon Brown then you are either a Saint a liar or unhinged.

Either way you need another 59,999,999 of you to make it a good model for society .


You give every impression of going though some sort of hyterical symathetic breakdown with Mr. Bean and I would suggest you stop taking it all so personally .

anti Camoron said...

Newmania
From the BBC :
"The North East property developer gave more than £650,000 to the party, via four associates, over four years"

Was he a Tory voter?

Shot yourself in the foot, there, old stick eh? I'd stick to sub-Pam Ayres trollery if i were you - at least some of that rhymes!

Newmania said...

"The North East property developer gave more than £650,000 to the party, via four associates, over four years"

Shot myself inthe foot eh. I think you have just explained what

" I work in the property industry advising developers of the attitudes of local authorities to development proposals,"..entails


Dear developer
Please give the Labour Party a big bung and you can do whatever you like ! Yippee Kaiyay

Love David ( Greyfriars Bobby )Boothroyd


Its good to be the king

anti-camoron and newmoron too said...

Newmania
You are beyond parody, so it's difficult to bother.

Real property developers deal with Council palnning departments all the time. There is no body of people less corruptible by political parties than localk council planning committees. They follow their policies, otherwise they face embarrassment in the courts. Abrahams might well be a Tory voter (more real to a fantasist like you), and driven by a wrong-headed idea that he might gain from the Council by bribery, but if so he would have had the wit to disguise his criminality a bit better.