Monday, November 26, 2007

A 13 Point Tory Lead: Can This Really Be True?

This really does come under the heading 'unsubstantiated rumour' and I almost hesitate to pass it on, but word on the street is that there will be a very interesting poll in tomorrow's Independent. If the rumour is to be believed, it will show a 13 point Tory lead. Yes, you read that right. Tories on 40% and Labour on 27%.

UPDATE: Apparently it's true! My only caveat is that this is done by Communicate Research, whose polls do tend to swing rather violently.

UPDATE: LibDems are on 18%. Thanks BJ!

47 comments:

BJ said...

Yes, it's right. Just seen it on PA.

Londoner said...

And this must have been before the Labour Party General Secretary resigned? And before the Treasurer and the Deputy Leader have? (OK the last two haven't happened yet...)

AnyoneButBrown said...

Frankly I'm amazed that 27% of people certain to vote will vote Labour. They must need their heads examining.
Mostly payroll vote I must guess...

Londoner - check Guido..and before Douglas Alexander has resigned!

Anonymous said...

I'm on hand outs and therefore happy to vote labour

Anonymous said...

LibDems and Others on 33% combined?

fatboyslimming said...

So what is the lib dem share and as such what is the share for the others. As someone who will be voting for one of the OTHER parties it is interesting to see their share stay at 10 % and even rise upto 19 % dependent on the lib dem numbers.

ie tories 40 labour 27 lib dems 23 leaves others 10 or if as many polls have been lib dems 14 % means others is 19 per cent larger than the lib dems and is where most of the labour vote going... doesnt this also prove if the tories also have the same gaffes in the future ( which is more than likely ) the likes of the OTHER parties could well see a swell in political support.

more labour sleaze said...

13% lead! And after Watt's resignation tonight over the donations scandal and Dennis McShane's disgraceful attempt to spin it on BBC and Sky that 13% lead will just grow and grow.

If Brown is discovered to have approved these illegal donations his head should be on the block next.

BJ said...

LD share is up two points to 18 pc.

Tory share is down 1pc on last comparable poll, apparently.

Anonymous said...

So others on 14-15%? SNP must be storming Scotland!

Marquee Mark said...

Slightly concerning that all of this collapse in the Labour vote is solely benefitting LibDems/others - and none of it going to the Tories. That just seems counter-intuitive.

fatboyslimming said...

so if the lib dems is 18 % does this not show a growth of support for more specific party issue parties with the others being at 15 % I wonder if there is a link so we could see the break down of the others.

fatboyslimming said...

Considering parties get a bounce from the arrival of a new leader wouldn't it be incredible if the lib dems over took the labour party in the polls.

Marquee Mark said...

Others 15%?? Has the Labour vote just walked over lock-stock to the SNP and the BNP then???

Brown's legacy: a broken United Kingdom and a resurgent far-right. Good effort, in just five months....

Not a sheep said...

Any idea why politicalbetting.com is down at present? I need my fix of Psephology...

last one out turn off the lights said...

Looks like much of Labour's white working-class/lower middle-class vote is turning in desperation to the BNP.

Brown's legacy?

Anonymous said...

Please get my political betting back up!

Trumpeter Lanfried said...

Whether it's true or not, these polls are useful in spreading alarm and despondency among Labour ranks.

is brown finished? said...

notasheep....

I guess with Brown on the rocks over illegal donations, Branson's NR bid unravelling, and Tories 13% poll lead, the politicalbetting.com server has crashed under the sheer weight of numbers trying to access the site.

People get excited when they see an unpopular, sleazy, dishonest, and incompetent government in it's death throes.

mick mcpaddy said...

whale oil beef hooked

Anonymous said...

Guido has item regarding a planning application for Durham Green Developments for development alongside A1 granted on appeal in October this year(Mr Abraham's Company). If correct and it stacks up - its f***ing dynamite

Anonymous said...

Crikey! Looks like I'd better start sending anonymous donations to the Tories.

Oscar Miller said...

House of Cards indeed. C4 news not pulling any punches tonight - there's a mood of journos scenting blood out there. Could it really be all over for Brown?

Anonymous said...

I wonder what that little shit Quentin Davies is thinking now? Not that anybody cares

Daily Referendum said...

The Data protection minister Michael Wills claims he knew nothing of missing discs until Alistair Darling made his statement in the House of Commons:

"I'm afraid I learnt about it when I heard the statement in the House of Commons". He also claimed that he was unaware of any of the other recent security failures.

Sitting on the joint committee on human rights, the Earl of Onslow asked: "So there are lots of leaks and you know nothing about it - and you're minister for data protection?"

How long do you give Labour?

Madasafish said...

I give Labour until 2010.

The Crown Prosecution Service will NOT prosecute any Labour Minister or Official even if they were caught with their hand taking a brown envelope stuffed with tenners and handing over an ermine robe/planning application/Building Society (delete as applicable).

Why?

Because they are appear to be politicised.

Politicised = corruptly in favour of the existing Gov't.

When Labour lose pwoer, I can see an awful lot of Heads of Gov't offices losing their jobs...

fatboyslimming said...

Daily Ref...

I would say much like the major government they will stay in power for as long as possible with the hope that all this will blow over and something brown and sticky will find itself on the face of Cameron...

You can not see a vote of no confidence ever happening., and as most of the labour members of parliament sit on seats in which there votes are already in the post... so to speak ... or in herited down the generations... Brown will just shrug it off and continue on as though nothing has happened and say just look at the ten years of growth.... the only growth i see is that of the green eyed monster he had for blair... you do wonder how much he hate blair for leaving him to carry the can for everything as it all falls apart... and blair is declaring himself a religous nutter so will i guess in future declare all his decissions can be muted because of deminished responsibilty or it wasnt me guv'nor but the voice from above told me to invade iraq/afghanistan/ etc etc etc ...

mitch said...

(CHORUS:)
Things can only get better
Can only get better
Now I've found you
(That means me)
(Will you teach me now)
Things can only get better
Can only get better
Now I've found you

And you and you...
You... show me prejudice and greed
You show me how
I must learn to deal with this disease
I look at things now
In a different light than I did before
I found the cause
And I think that you could be my cure
And you say

Walk your path
Wear your shoes
Talk like that
I'll be an angel too

(chorus)

Things can only get, can only get
Things can only get, can only get
Things can only get, can only get
Things can only get, can only get

Daily Referendum said...

If what Guido is suggesting is true, then this has got to be the end of Labour.

Mostly Ordinary said...

The Tories don't want to win the next election, they want to wait until after the Olympics so Labour don't get back in for 30 years.

Votedave said...

HIP HIP HOORAY!
HIP HIP HOORAY!
HIP HIP HOORAY!

canvas said...

Gordon Brown will be mocked for the rest of his political career.

Let's hope DC keeps up the pressure.

Anonymous said...

Panic on the underground.. see prev thread.. nothing like the panic in the bunker..................

Tom said...

info only Iain...!

UPDATE I have just had confirmation of the poll from the boss of ComRes - Andrew Hawkins. He tells me that the last survey which showed such a big Tory lead was a MORI poll for The Times in August 1988, when Margaret Thatcher was still Prime Minister and her party enjoyed a 14-point advantage.

by mike smithson November 26th, 2007 at 9:17 pm

Anonymous said...

Trouble in the cabinet I hear with Johnson, Hain, and Straw coming out of the woodwork to stir it against the Brownies.

Geezer said...

I wonder how the Brownies and their contacts at the BBC at planning to spin this funding scandal?
Something like:
"Gordon still in the process of rooting out corruption from the horrible Mr Blair, and doing a great and very manly job! and it was all some Labour Party admin's fault anyway and nothing to do with the honest MPs of cabinet ministers!"
I suspect it will be something like that. So Brown and co expect everyone to believe that they have no idea who their major donors are!
OH FFS! If GF's allegations are true, they really are in deep **it!

Anonymous said...

Short answer: "No"

But here's hoping the tories believe it!

Atlas shrugged said...

Don't piss your pants Iain. Cameron will win big, its written in the stars. But thats not the point.

What I/we want to know is.

Does David Cameron intend to reverse the damage done to this countries liberty and freedoms, or just talk about doing so?

I would be happy if he simply decided to reform or preferably abolish 100% of every single new law brought in since 97. Basically start again like the last 10 years never happened.

Even the good sounding legislation like the freedom of information, and the data protection Acts don't work, to say the least.

You might not personally have noticed this country's head long slide into a neo fascist police state, driving around in the Audi talking to Tory Toffs all day.

But down on the streets were the normal people inhabit. This has become a truly disgusting authoritarian place for honest, freedom loving, hard working people, to live in.

I am 47 years old and I have never felt more treated like a potentially naughty school child EVER. Not even since I was one.

Cameron does not have to build more prisons. He just has to make sure only real criminals like most of the Labour front bench, get sent to live in one.

Fred said...

Polls such as these will be meaningless when the Libs collect under a new leadership.
I feel we will see a structural change in political allegance and the Libs could come out as leaders. A great threat to bear in mind.

Diablo said...

Iain, I wrote this on your blog two days ago:

"....its a bit concerning that David Cameron's team aren't going up in the polls. He should be in the mid-40s by now.

I can't believe the little sideshow of Clegg and Huhne giving each other Chinese burns behind the bike sheds at Westminster have caused the LibDems to leap up the polls to over 20%...

.....Andy Coulson and Co must push for a much higher profile of all the Conservative policy proposals....

Unless of course they know of some even worse revelations for Brown and his woeful crew on the horizon?"

Despite the latest revelations about the sleazey side of Labour, my point still stands - the Conservatives should be going up in the polls.

They have to spear Labour in its heart on two or three big issues now to ensure that Brown and his incompetents just whither on the vine.

We can't just rely on them scoring own goals which they will blame anyway on a junior member of staff and cite the resignations of a couple of incompetent officials in the Civil Service or their party machineas having solved their problems.

Come on Andy: earn your corn!

Anonymous said...

Fred @ 12.37

I am absolutely crying laughing at your post. You are a comedy genius, please post more often.

DIRTY EUROPEAN SOCIALIST said...

Thta is a disaster for Britain. The oxbridge conpiracy has destoryed a giovernment in few months. You stooges must be proud. Are we in a economic crisis? No. Are we in a
It just shows the strength of the establishment, and subsurvience iof the English, when a real labour PM arrives and the just does decent policies.
Northern Rock is about to be SAVED.
Maybe they are to stupid the blame the PM for England being knocked out.

DIRTY EUROPEAN SOCIALIST said...

I'm voting for indepndence for Scotland then. The English oxbridge conspiracy has destroyed a government in a few weeks. Well done. You lot must be proud. A few Blair lacky Army bosses and a fake claims by the ignorant tories and the oxbridge press conn the public to think Northern Rock is Labour's fault. I don't want to be part of this pathetic submissive nation anymore. You English are the most easily conned people on earth. Goodbye and good riddance. Darling tries to save a bank and get's the blame. Apparenlty labour missalyed the CD's. Oh and yes Bin Laden would love it we past strict terror laws.
Bring Darling and the PM back to Scotland We will end up like Ireland, you will end up like Spain.
The next election is lost. It is over and done. Well done.

Newmania said...

If there is an Oxbridge conspiracy it is a Liberal progressive one and falls in with the BBC Labour bias. It has not been a few months it has been well over ten years and , you may not follow this , the government has done nothing but hinder the economy.

This gives our country a way forward into the shiny bright new Millenium a free land where Labours serfs are freed from their own laziness

http://dirtyeuropeansocialist.blogspot.com/ said...

Oh yes liberal progressive conspiracy that encourages hatred of the EU in our press, of immigrants, starts wars.
We the poor are not serfs of labour, they freed us with the NHS, the wlefare state, free education for all, you are the serf of the elite you speak for their evil right wing values to starve the poor to death and to cut their education, health. You call us lazy. So it the queen hard working are all your milionaire soccer buddies hard working. Right wing NAZI facist. It is not serfdrom to give money to the por. It is serfdom your evil right wing facist views will bring back. The poor will be more exploited by your extreme right wing views.

Anonymous said...

Marquee Mark said...

"Others 15%?? Has the Labour vote just walked over lock-stock to the SNP and the BNP then???"

I certainly hope so.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/3clnkm

John said...

DES: I thought it took us (I say us, but I didn't go to Oxbridge) more than ten years to even make them look on the ropes. And they've two years before they have to hold an election. Do you think they are so stupid they can't come back a bit by then? (I think they are but what about you?)