Thursday, November 22, 2007

New Poll Puts Tories 9 Points Ahead

During the summer I said that it would be impossible to tell the real state of public opinion until sometime in November and that the polls would be all over the place until then. I think even my most bitter opponents might agree with that. Well, it is now a little beyonf mid November, and we see every poll showing a reasonably healthy Tory lead. I'm not going to get over-excited by that, but it is an undeniable fact.

This evening's Channel 4 YouGov poll shows the Tories nine points ahead of Labour on 41%, their best lead for 15 years. The poll was taken after the lost data revelations. A majority (55%) reckoned Alistair Darling should share some of the responsibility and nearly half (49%) said the same of Prime Minister Gordon Brown. PA reports that...
Only a slim majority of voters still consider the Brown/Darling team to be very
(15%) or fairly (36%) competent when it comes to managing Britain's finances.
David Cameron and his shadow chancellor George Osborne enjoy the confidence of
46% on the same issue - although only 9% rate them "very competent" and 37%
"fairly" so. The Tories are up five points on the last YouGov poll for Channel 4
News in early October - two days before Mr Brown ruled out an early general
election. Labour have dropped a massive eight points since then with the Liberal
Democrats enjoying a one-point boost to 14% after ditching Sir Menzies Campbell
as leader.

I do not believe that the Conservatives have a nine point lead in reality, and this poll is a reaction to the lost data scandal. Taking other recent polls into account, I think the real position is more like a five or six point lead. The LibDems are still rubbing along around 13-14% despite their increased exposure as a result of their leadership contest. Whatever the lead, we're now getting to the stage where some polls are showing 42% or even 43% of the vote for the Tories. To get a majority of seats, 42% is the minimum requirement.

UPDATE: The Times has a poll tomorrow which shows...

1. Confidence in Darling and Brown to run the economy has plummeted from 61% to 28%
2. Brown's competence rating has gone down from 56% to 26%.
3. Brown's rating for honesty and being principled has dropped from 37% to 20%

Anyone care to argue that Tuesday wasn't Black?

19 comments:

Man in a Shed said...

Can be long now till Gordon reshuffle and relaunch ....

Alex said...

Labour leadership challenge?

golfwidow said...

Let's see them spin their way out of this!

canvas said...

Gordon is on the outttttt.

Miliband better do his fund raising quickly?

Oscar Miller said...

"So when will the general election be then?" Ms Frostrup asked.

Silence reigned.

"Charming as you are, Mariella, the first person I would have to talk to is the Queen," came the reply.


Oh Gordon - that little love-in with Mariella must seem like an eternity ago now ...

javelin said...

Ho. ho. The Time Poll is REALLY BAD.

Daily Referendum said...

Brown is also getting a beating from the Lords for his: "disinterest and contempt for Armed Forces."

Is this a push from all sides?

Charlotte Corday said...

Miliband IMHO is too untested and therefore unlikely to be selected to follow Incapability Brown. My money is on Jack Straw. I seem to remember a quote from Barbara Castle when he was her political adviser about how she admired his political cunning and guile

Anonymous said...

I heard Gordon had to be coaxed down off the roof of No10 last night.
Ed and Magda Balls have been online to get cyanide pills from Diefastandeasy.com.
Labour MPs are worried. Very worried.

Scary Biscuits said...

Looking at the polls since the last election shows that voters to respond to big news in two different ways.

1. When a party has a sexual or other personality based problem: the polls dip but rapidly return to where they were before. See the dip in LibDem support during their previous leadership campaign.

2. When something policy based goes wrong (for example, Black Wednesday or Labour's version in April 2006) it causes to a step change in voting intention.

I think the losing of personal data on such a scale is definitely type 2.

The only other way that support changes is from people gradually drifting, which is more a result of fashion chaning rather than particular news, for example, the chronic decline in LibDeb support.

This is very bad for Labour as it now has two years for more type 2 events but very little opportunity to row back on a tide that is already against them.

Labour MPs are now in exactly the same position that Conservatives were in 1992: torn between (a) hanging on and hoping against reason that it would somehow turn around and (b) defenistrating their leader. (a) was the wrong choice but you can understand why they did it, much to the harm of the party.

Trumpeter Lanfried said...

anonymous [9.11 PM] You say, "I heard Gordon had to be coaxed down off the roof of No10 last night."

Ceiling, not roof. Don't exaggerate.

Teesbridge said...

Just as that day in 1992 was actually White Wednesday for the nation at large, so (from at the very least a Tory perspective) I'd suggest we've just witnessed White Tuesday.

(but if we'd all try REALLY HARD not to smirk, that would be nice)

Anonymous said...

McLabour gonna lose the next General election?.

Yeah a know!........

http://tinyurl.com/386n5o

Anonymous said...

I predict that at the election Labour's vote will hold up to 35%, because its support has been bought and paid for.

The Tories will get I reckon 43 to 44%.

According to electoralcalculus.co.uk, that implies a Tory majority of 6. I suspect a bit more is actually likely because of the widespread hatred of Broon, so they'll probably get in with a majority of about 30. This will be small enough to give them a real incentive to sort out the Scottish Raj once and for all, and meanwhile Labour will utterly implode.

DIRTY EUROPEAN SOCIALIST said...

I predict labour to be routed. The oxbrdige media hate him. And they will blame every petty issue on him. If a man breaks free from jail it will be blamed on labour. The media hate this real labour government. The oxbridge media and their tory "kill the poor buddies" will rip into this government they are even prepared to create a ecnomic crisis. And cheer every crisis.
Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault Northern Rock is not labour's fault and neither is the CD issue either. The conspiracy is destroying new labour.

Gary Elsby stoke said...

Ok, Iain, so the polls are made up of people who flip and flop with the headlines.

The NHS is about to become £500M in credit after balancing its books.

A policy commitment.
Add this to all of those schools opening up and all of those 21stC hospitals coming online soon.

The Tories appear to revel in bad news stories to boost their opinion of themselves.

Not exactly managerial material, is it?

Gary

Votedave said...

I think the Tories will do better in the marginal seats that the national polls suggest, as the in-depth opinion polls are indicating. The Tory lead is probably more like 12% where it matters.
Therefore I don't think 42% is necessarily the minimum share of the vote the Tories need to win - why that's less than 2% lower than Labour got in their 1997 landslide!

jafo said...

DES - been allocated lines from school or something? Why do you keep repeating yourself?

You seem unable to grasp a simple fact - no one is saying the original situation with Northern Rock is Labour's fault. What is Labour's fault is throwing £20billion plus of OUR money straight down the toilet with no realistic prospect of being able to fish it out.

If the bank had been called Southern Rock and employed large numbers of people in Southern England (ie not Labour heartlands) it wouldn't have been given a brass Euro.

You may not understand that - everyone else does.

Didn't notice Labour rushing forward to save people's Christmas savings last year when Farepak went belly-up - that might have cost approx £2 mill - not enough savers grouped in a Labour voting area, obviously.

DIRTY EUROPEAN SOCIALIST said...

5:59 So this is a north - south thing. You hate the way labour stood up for for the north of England. All thus guff about labour then you hate the north. Tories hate the north.