Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Le Pen is Finished
Perhaps the most welcome result of Sunday's French parliamentary election was the almost total obliteration of Jean Marie Le Pen's National Front. He attracted a mere 4.3 per cent of the vote and his career in frontline politics looks to be at an end. The only worry is that some of his vote has clearly gone to the tough talking Nicholas Sarkozy. Talking tough is easy, but it's not so easy to see what bits of red meat Sarkozy will throw to his new supporters to keep them onside. But the lack of a charismatic successor to Le Pen should mean that the extremists remain fragmented.
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29 comments:
But surely a Le Pen 'fascist' is like an Italian 'communist' i.e. not at all? Most French politicians have strange views; it's required.
Sarkozy gave the centre and the right a bit choice instead - maybe Cameron could learn something..?
Does this mean that Le Pen won't be invited to Tory party conference again?
Mr Sarkozy shows you don't have to win from the centre.
A clear analysis of the situation and plan to resolve the issues can get you good support.
Or you could try riding bicycles to work, hugging trees/hoddies or destroying our state education system to make the BBC and Lib Dem voters happy.
The difference is that in the second case there is just no point to it.
Iain, you said:-
"Talking tough is easy, but it's not so easy to see what bits of red meat Sarkozy will throw to his new supporters to keep them onside".
Rather a good description of the Etonboy is it not.
Personally the right are a disorganised rabble and can be ignored. UNLESS a credible and attractive leader can unite all the disperate groups/parties. That day may come, we shall have to await.But my fear, and yours I believe, is that such a united party would sweep to power.
Good luck to your blog. I note that you are now a SKY man.
Le Pen won a lot of votes not for racist policies but because he presented himself as an outsider, attacking the clan of career politicians from ENA who float back and forth between the civil service, big business and government. For decades, France has had mass unemployment yet no one did anything.
Sarkozy, despite being one of Chirac's ministers, managed to paint himself as an outsider, the breath of fresh air instead of another Gaullo-Marxist fart who offer the same ideas whether you vote socialiste or UMP.
Not mightier than Le Sword, then.
No Iain!
The FN never do well in parliamentary elections. I don't think they had a single seat over the whole controversy in 2002.
This really is no surprise.
With his approval ratings running so high Sarkozy hardly needs to worry about keeping the far right onside. Its the left and centre that are struggling to know how to respond in time for the elections.
It certainly is refreshing that in France politicians can stand up for what they believe in and argue their case.
So much political debate is now "taboo" in this country that there the main parties just squabble over the scraps as the ship sinks.
Its good the rumpof neo fascism is in trouble anywhere in the world, but remeber Sarkozy had the brains to really set out an agenda to tackle immigration. Will the Tories 'do the same'? We shall see.
Very slow on the ball today Iain.
Have you not clocked Blairs latest speech on the BBC website yet?
"Feral" Media needs to be tamed!!
Oh, the irony...
Oddly enough the left in France was right and Sarkozy did suck up a lot of the NF votes. Le Pen was mostly a protest vote. Those who wanted to protest did need to anymore as there as a real choice in the election.
JG: So will David Cameron go after the BNP vote now then?
I think not - why? Because the BNP currently only get about 0.1% of the vote!
Le Pen always had a much greater share of the vote in France than the BNP have here. Sarkozy killed off Le Pen by taking some of the policies which fueled a lot of Le Pen's policies, and people saw Sarkozy as more credible than a puffing old neo-nazi like Le Pen.
The BNP have never had the levels of support which Le Pen had, therefore DC is right to go where the majority of the votes are. Even if that means pleasing the BBC and the Lib Dems.
Sorry - but swinging to the far right doesn't win elections in the UK.
PS - Le Pen finished - Hooooray!
Perhaps more importantly, M Le Pen's £3million plus subsidy from the French Government is now in jepoardy - just one reason why public funding of political parties is undesirable.
I stuggle to see where the English media is coming from on the legislatives.
Both Iain and the Telgraph reckon JM Le Pen is electoral history, but this is far from the case.
He never wins seats in the assemblé, because there is no proportional Representation.
Sarko has done well with his honeymoon period, and has even wooed the left with appointments such as kouchner. Sarko has stolen Le Pen's ideas on immigration, which is why Le Pen hasn't really lost the Presidential race yet.
Once the unpopular reform kicks in in the summer, and the Extreme right realise Sarko is really a Centrist, there will be polarisation.
Le Pen has the charisma and support to keep continuing, and it is doubtful that even Marine Le Pen will replace him as leader in this November's conference.
Only time will tell...
Adrian Yalland - I was by no means suggesting that Cameron pander to the BNP. I was referring to the traditional Tory voters and the right of his party.
Blair had to do the same - appeal to the left and centre of his party. He did so by introducing genuine policies that excited the electorate. He made concessions (e.g. fox hunting) to push through his more centre even right of centre reforms.
Right now Cameron is trying to sound appealing to the left-centre and centre but not actually offering anything Labour can not already offer. He is just hoping to come across as more likeable chap than Brown. A risky strategy and one that I do not believe will win him the next election. He needs popular policies but also policies that define Conservatism and the new Conservative party, and that means something more radical than hugging a hoodie or taxing those who fly more than once a year.
The BNP would not have the support here if we did not have this Labour Gvernment and an opposition that is the same. There is just knowhwere else for the right wing to go. As soon as they have a right of centre President in France Le Pen is struggling for the first time.If the Tory party was carrying the Mrs T banner the BNP would dissapear
Why do you single out Len Pen?
Surely even better news is the rout of the far left, although, to quote ID on Len Pen's voters, some of this extremist vote has probably gone to the socialists. How will they cope? What 'red meat' will they toss their new found supporters?
I don't believe the FN is dead. Sarkozy has won a lot of votes that traditionally would have gone to Le Pen, and Le Pen will probably now retire from front line politics. But I think Marine will be a force to be reckoned with.
Nevertheless, to be sure, they have been weakened by M Sarkozy.
"The only worry is that some of his vote has clearly gone to the tough talking Nicholas Sarkozy. "
Sarkozy's 'tough talk' had appeal well beyond the National Front. Crime and Immigration are mainstream issues across the EU.
Le Pen should retire.
Adrian is right - swinging to the right won't help the Conservatives. Look no further than the last two general elections for evidence.
Again, I wasn't suggesting Cameron goes hard to the right. I was saying if he mimics New Labour the electorate will be left a straight choice between sticking with what they know or going with the Tories. That gives a massive advantage to Labour. The Tories will not win an election on their current standing.
How about some big ideas - something that the Labour party could never do and will really mark the Tories out as a realistic choice? Are you telling me that the electorate wouldn't go for tax cuts? A little less government interference and less legislation in everything we do? Real strong Tory territory? Instead Cameron seems to want to mimic new labour.
There is ever growing disquiet in the party from the right and Cameron can drag them to the middle, but he will have to make concessions. Right now he alienating the right of his party, he is alienating his traditional supporters but he has picked up those dissatisfied with new labour (or more precise Blair). If Brown puts on a good show over the coming months, they may well go back and it'll be defeat number four.
I agree the vast voting block is in the middle ground, but that ground will not win elections alone - Labour had the centre ground and the centre left. The Tories need the centre ground and the centre right. He is in danger of losing that centre right and apathy in the centre ground will probably mean people stick with Brown.
Tristan -I don't know that Le Pen will continue. He's in his 80s. And his ideas triumphed, even if he didn't. OK, Sarkozy probably wasn't being completely straight with the electorate (now there's a surprise!)but he got in partly on Le Pen's platform.
Marine ... I have a feeling she will do well. I liked the ads they ran of her when I was living in France. "A woman at your side". She will soften her father's more intractible stances,and the French are not going to suddenly clasp the Magrebis to their breasts. They hate them.
Interestingly enough, they're perfectly comfortable with people from French W Africa; but they hate the muslims.
People seem to be getting carried away with the idea that Sarkozy somehow campaigned as a radical neo-Thatcherite. He didn't.
His tax policy was pretty much indistinguishable from George Osborne's promise of a simpler and fairer tax system. He is a supporter of affirmative action and is quite liberal on many other social issues.
Just because someone is not anti-American and takes a reasonably tough stance on disorder doesn't make them right-wing.
I think we should be very wary of treating Sarkozy as the saviour of the right, from some of the things he has said.
What I found interesting about the French election was that in the parts of France that I know, on the first ballot rural Brittany notably Finisterre voted for Mme Royale while the area around Lille and the Pas de Calais voted for Sarkozy with the centrist candidiate only doing well in the Basque country. A bit like seeing Wiltshire and Dorset go solidly Labour with Lanarkshire and Glamorgan going Conservative.
In the UK, at one time there was a very strong (white) working class Tory vote. It was was attributed to deferential voting (somewhat superficially), I think there was a book called Angels in Marble but we became detached from that vote in 1997 and overall since then it seems to have stayed at home although an element has gone to the BNP. It most obvious manifestation was Essex man but they have never found the Labour or even Nu Labour Parties acceptable but they are still there and were a centre right politian able to hit their political G spot, something that Sarkozy seems to have done in areas as varied as the rust belt of Northern France and the prosperous "home counties" of the Ile de France, then the radical right can be once again in the driving seat
Verity : Jean-Marie has already declared himself a candidate to his own succession. The FN will meet in November to discuss tactics and possibly evoke a new leader.
With this 2007 defeat, maybe JM's eggs are cooked, bu he will still have a go. And yes, it would come as a surprise to see Marine take over.
I beleive she would help the party, by modernising the values, and possibly dragging the party towards the centre. She has got great charisma, she is very pretty - and she could go further than her father - depending on Sarkozy's legacy.
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