Monday, June 25, 2007
An Early Election?
Many people are already talking about an early general election. On the basis of Brown's speech yesterday they may well be right. If he hits the ground running with all sorts of eyecatching initatives which catch the Tories on the hop then I can quite see the benefits to Brown of going to the country as early as this autumn. He will want his own mandate and if he thinks he will win an election he may well call one. If his first 100 days are a success look out for an election at the end of October. All this puts a real onus on the Conservatives to hit back with a vengeance. They need to become far more hard hitting in some of their tactics. We're not dealing with Bambi any more. We've got Thumper to contend with.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
85 comments:
Conservative MPs should really forget going on vacation this Summer
Maybe Tony will ask The Queen to dissolve Parliament this week?
Now, that would be funny. A last act of revenge on Gordimmo...
Expect a serious cull of Old Etonians by lightweight Dae next week.
An early election , Isnt that what chinese chaps get around 7 am?
Nah! Finkelstein is right. Follow the money.
The Labour party is basically bust, they have no election war chest or funds, they are in hock to a Labour supporting bank and quite simply could not afford a snap election against the now very well financed Tories.
Watch for Brown implementing the state funding of political parties and for large donations from Labour supporters such as Ronnie Cohen.
If that happens, then maybe we could have a snap election...
Somehow I doubt that Dr. Chai Patel, Sir Chris Evans or Rod Aldridge will be fronting any more money...
Just wondering about the link between Ruth Kelly & lightweight Dei!
I think spring is more likely but an important factor is Scotland (ie SNP) where Labour could lose 10 seats +/-.
Lib dems in UK could be massacred at present (ie @ 15% el;ectoral calculus could squeeze them back in that taxi again)which might not be in Jimmy's (GB)interests.
Do we know how much the Sith Institute has stuffed into Gordo's back pocket?
So is a snap election when it breaks off in his hand?
Was I the only one to notice that the reliable Ms. Tamzin Lightwater said in her last Diary that cchq had been told to prepare for an autumn election?
Wishful thinking from someone who wants something to blog about.
They haven't got the funding for an election campaign, and are going to spend a couple of years building up the war chest.
A shame, as this is the last chance they have to catch a poorly prepared Tory Party with their pants down..
Dump "Dave" as leader and bring back William Hague.
Early election would suit the conservatives just fine - Brown to win a smaller majority than he has now and gets to feel the heat when his debt bubble bursts.
2007 election would be a good one to lose??
I'm not sure it will necessarily be the best backdrop for an election. Unlike almost everyone else, I am not expecting any further bounce in the polls than has already taken place for Labour.
We must be due a decision on loans for lordships from the CPS any day now (and I'm not sure that a decision not to prosecute will be any better for the Government than a decision to press charges against one or two insiders). Gordon Brown has already blundered by not agreeing to a referendum on the latest EU treaty, it gives Cameron an immediate stick to beat him with. And if newspaper reports are to be believed, he is erring again by wishing to retain identity cards. This is a very dangerous issue for him because even if a majority support them - which is doubtful - it is a vote-changing issue only for the minority that oppose them.
For all these reasons (and the money reason given by other posters) I do not expect an autumn election, and if there is one, I expect a hung Parliament.
Gordon Brown still needs to articulate what he stands for. I expect an election in 2009, or 2010 if the polls look bad for Brown then.
Exactly what I said on Conservative Home yesterday funnilly enough Iain.
Well he wont go before the first 100 days. Unless the rules have changed, you have to be PM for 100 days before you get a PM's pension.
Still waiting for your shadow cabinet Iain - or do you know something we don't?
It's a good job that The News of the World have been primed with that story involving the goat and the waders, then...
Autumn '07 General Election AND an EU Referendum? Who has that kind of money to burn?
(Mind you, if Blair is planning on remaining an MP until the end of this Parliament, one imagines Brown must be itching for a Dissolution)
The election is on for last week of october. It's going to be a messy Summer, poor Tories will have no time for Pimms! Four elections in a row...
I wouldn't bet on it being too early. Gordon needs to demonstrate what he's done as PM to get a mandate history will allow to be his. He will also need time to change direction on a few things - that doesn't happen overnight.
Finally, although his speech was heavily Uk focused in content, his first few months need to be on the world stage - becoming part of the triumverate of new leaders with Merkel and Sarkozy. As last weeks summit shows, if he leaves the running to them the results will be dire - for him and this country.
He also needs hostility to Blair to dilute a bit. After a year or so - providing Tony disappears off the scene reasobaly completely - then the anti-Tony sentimate will have gone. Thats a few % points for Gordon.
He just needs to be patient.
Jeez Iain stop dancing to his tune will you?
What about?
West Lothian question?
Care for the elderly (i.e. forced to sell their homes for care)
Tuition fees
Smaller classroom sizes
Barnett Formula
etc etc etc
Time to play the England card - the Union is doomed anyway.
"Time to play the England card - the Union is doomed anyway."
It certainly is after it transpires that Gordon will not support Holyrood's plans to introduce a Local Income Tax.
Despite the anti SNP flavour of the Scottish media, my impression is that Alex and Nicola et al are doing rather well thank you.
Furthermore the unveiled threats to sever subsidies serve only to strengthen Scotland's resolve for further independence.
Just keep doing what you are doing now, Gordo, and there will be no Labour party in Scotland.
Just to pick on your Disney analogy, I think Bambi would be a more capable opponent if you though about it. After all he did become a stag. Thumper was just a bunny.
Sounded good though.
An autumn election could be good, but I can't see it happening. No money to fund it, no courage to risk it. But I expect the Brown camp to dangle the carrot precisely because it'll get the Conservatives in a lather about being policy light and lightweight -- exactly the sort of headlines about the Conservatives Brown wants aired.
This hot on the heels of Minggate, I'm starting to see why Brown has such a reputation as a fearsome strategist.
tim: dave must keep his strong Etonian team -these young lads are very popular oop north and really do understand what goes into a packet of washing powder.
Forget the 'they can't afford it argument' - Brown hasn't spent ten years wooing the gullible rich too be left embarrassed when he finally becomes PM. No financial pledge offered to Gordon was EVER going to find its way into the Blair warchest, but watch that deficit shrink now!
As for election timing? Well Gordon is a master strategist so assume he will do the unexpected and make the move that we would least want.
3-6 months of announcements calculated to throw Mr Hilton's strategy off balance followed by an an election that contrasts maturity and gravitas with lightweight grinning and there you have it - clunking fist 1 modernisers 0.
Please useless Dave, prove me wrong
The snap election story is all about blocking efforts to dump dave and put a Conservative in his place.But what about the policies?
The Hilton strategy---you jest!
By the way, "Where's Dave?(tm)"?
Unless I haven't been concentrating he seems to have disappeared off the radar. He's not doing a Macavity is he? or hiding in a bunker?
Dump "Dave" as leader and bring back William Hague.
Yes, because he did awfully well last time, didn't he?
Brown would never call a snap election. There would be a risk, even if he considers it a small risk, of him losing and therefore becoming known through history as one of the shortest-serving PMs ever. It'd be a joke.
If not dave,what about gove? He's a mans man for sure.
just imagine, for a second, the wasteland that the tories would be in if gordon won again with a majority of, say, 45. and cameron gained, maybe 30 seats in total. it would be armageddon!
to hear old smug etonboy deal with that. to see the right wing turn on him with a vengeance. and to hear yet more tories saying "we have to listen.." over and over again. it would be too sweet. i reckon you'd all give up.
Nice to know you're still blogging Iain. Thought for a moment you had given up blogging for Brown (which, if he takes your advice, might be no longer than Lent).
However, if the accuracy of your future predictions in the new era are as good as this first one is likely to prove, maybe you should give up.
Has it been published anywhere what were the Dep Leadership voting figures before the first round? Would be good to know how far off the pace Iain's favoured candidate was. Are there any other candidates on which the curse of Iain could be placed? Please don't endorse Ming - we need him don't we?
An early October election lost by Broon would make him the shortest serving PM ever, and Broon doing an ancient mariner act for the rest of his natural life would be a minor compensation for all of the horrors that he has inflicted on the nation. I think the record is 119 days, and held by George Canning.
I think that the suspicion is valid. Whilst it is true that warchests are depleted - that is true for all parties.
I don't think that the primary motivating factor is a desire for his own mandate (although I'm sure that is part of it). I think it is fear.
Waiting until the natural end of the parliament runs a significant risk of catching the economy in a recession (no economy can grow indefinitely, no matter how well-managed).
I'm sure that Brown doesn't want to be Callaghan to Blair's Wilson, so if he thinks that he can beat the Conservatives in Autumn 2007 I suspect that he will go for it.
Note that if he is sure of a LibLab coalition, then even a hung parliament counts as beating the Conservatives - so he doesn't *have* to win.
Furthermore, under a hung parliament he could see a path to introducing PR. It is true that there are many of his backbenchers who would oppose, but would they go so far as to bring a coalition down to defeat it? I suspect not.
Why would he do this? He may be sufficiently tribal to want to scupper any chance of a future majority Conservative government - believing that, when push comes to shove, the LibDems couldn't bring themselves to prop up a LibCon coalition.
Re the "purge of the Etonians" - that would be Oliver Letwin and Hugo Swire, right? I suppose if he also sacked himself you could just about have a Shadow Cabinet purge of three. Or are there people still trying to push that stale old story about there being stacks of Old Etonians there?
The sad thing is that so many of us Tories are gullible enough to believe these Labour inspired insinuations.
What about a purge of Old Paulines? Perhaps it's too early to start Harpersoning on about that. Remarkable though that despite the fact that it is the girls' school with the highest entry standard in the country, she only managed to get to York University. Not amongst the top 80% who went to Oxbridge then. "Envy politics start with school experiences - discuss" (O Level psychology paper c. 1967)
The last person to flirt with the idea of an Autumn election was Jim Callaghan and look where it got him.
londoner-policy and admission charges! Thats a good start.
Maybe this might get the Tories to get off their backsides and start talking about policies. We really REALLY need to get one or two issues (bread and butter issues, not global warming) that we can knock on doors and tell and engage people with. Even if they dont agree with them, we must be able to demostrate why!
To get people to vote for you you dont have to be their "friend" you have to show that you can govern and take the difficult choices and justify them.
I have heard some colleagues moaning about the lack of a Tory view point over the past few days... well what have we done to present an alternative? Send out a few press releases? Dave could have been in manchester on the streets talking about an unelected PM etc; whilst the labour party were locked in their security compound. Hague could have been in Baghdad saying we have destroyed a country and have no clear policy to repair it; Davis could have been on a Leeds council estate with a single mother saying how her life hasnt changed under labour, how her son could not hope to rise to become an MP (like Davis claims he was). etc etc.
If we want media attention we have to earn it; not just expect to have ten minutes for labour (electing a new leader etc); then 10 minutes for tories discussing trees.
I certainly agree that Swire on museums was very stupid.
At Eton there is an order in the end of term exams that is published for the whole year group. So you might be ranked no 185 out of 250, or whatever. Oliver Letwin was made a scholar and therefore came pretty high. I wonder where Hugo Swire came?
Glad my comments have smoked out a high quality reader of your blog, Iain.
Any old girls of St Paul's to spill the beans on how stupid Harperson was?
etonian I think you know the answer to that one don't you?
If anyone has not seen it, there is a corker of an anecdote about Harman from Leo McKinstry in today's 'graph:
"She was, admittedly, poor at administration and had little real grasp of economics, something that left her badly exposed when she took over the running of the Department of Social Security. Her double act with her far more cerebral deputy, Frank Field, led to their being nicknamed 'Handbag and Brains.'
She rarely seemed to read newspapers in any depth and, for all her natural charisma, had to be heavily briefed before any appearance on a major current affairs programme.
Once, when she was going on Question Time and we were running through the likely topics, she suddenly turned to me and said: "Leo, remind me again, who's Yasser Arafat?"
Early election?
How's he gonna pay for it? I thought they were skint?
Or does this explain the rumour about Alan Sugars peerage?
Londoner
Not sure that there is all that much wrong with York Univ in any case - it was good enough for Neil and Christine Hamilton after all. But bear in mind that in the late 60s/early 70s it wasn't uncommon for left/liberal middle class kids to choose to go to the more trendy places (Sussex being the prime example I suppose, Hilary Benn an example student) rather than going to Oxbridge - similar to choosing state education rather than independent schools. And York would always have been one of the more traditional (= higher standard) newer universities, if you see what I mean - more so then than now. So doesn't necessarily mean that she wasn't bright enough.
Of course it would also be a good cover story ... and I can't say her intellect is obviously blazing going by interviews etc
BTW I neither attended York nor voted for Harman ;)
Anon - I don't actually know anything of Swire's intellectual capabilities. Unless my memory has gone to pot, I was not his generation. What is the answer Anon? Funny if he was the top scholar of his year.
Anyway, need to get back to tending the estates before instructing the butler about the wines for dinner. Also need to fit in my usual teatime hour with that pretty chamber maid in the large bedroom (or is it the large maid in the pretty bedroom, I forget). Didn't come too high up in the exam order myself as a matter of fact, but never done me any harm.
I don't think the decision would come down to money. Broon could easily make a virtue of running a low key campaign especially if the Tories ran a glitzy expensive one!
All you anti-public school people answer this:
Is it worse to live in a bad area and pay for education, or to move to a good area to get it for free?
Because it simply isn't possible to get a good state education in large parts of the country.
I have longed believed that the Tories would do well to stop calling Brown's bluff by asking for a "mandate" election - because they do not have a hope of winning one. They need at least 10/11% lead in the polls on the day to win outright and they are nowhere near that right now even in the mid-term polls.
Never say never, but I don't know who'd be expected to pay for the Labour campaign, now that Gordon has told the unions to go hang, so that he can play with his new upper-middle-class friends the Lib Dems (plus the Tories, no doubt), and of course Harriet Harman, instead.
Whenever the election happens, will he even allow Labour to stand candidates in the seats of Lib Dems or Cameroons? And even if he does, why should anyone in those seats bother voting Labour? Well, they are damn well going to have someone to vote for...
I think this is just keeping people on their toes. Brown's popularity relies on us trusting him to do something. If he calls an election before doing anything he will lose that trust. Also people wil think he may know more than he is telling about a coming recession. Finally 1% ahead is not that good - if you are unnecessarily betting your shirt do it only on sure thing.
Steve
Well Hilary Benn was a State school kid of course, courtesy of his "egalitarian" parents so possibly a different case.
Interesting point on York Uni and Harman. Neil Hamilton later did a postgrad LLB at Cambridge, actually. He may have been trying to get away from Christine at the time...
That's why we need the real gen. Where are those Pauline girls of a certain generation when we need them? It's a fair size school. Perhaps Iain can track a few of them down and then flog an interesting feature of what they have to say to the Telegraph or the Mail?
I don't know what "Etonian" is on, but I think I'd like some.
Early election, late election? What does it matter?
The Conservatives seem more interested in internal arguments than beating Labour.
Shades of the 1980s Labour Party? Unelectable?
I don't know but they are giving a good imitation of it.
As for opposing the Government and trying to win over the elctorate!
The current Opposition Front Bench would not win an audition for a pantomine let alone a Disney film.
(and I am a natural Conservative voter)
He should call an election early. He needs it for legitimacy. At worst we'll get a impetus of new Tory MPs. Bring it on.
Dump "Dave" as leader and bring back William Hague.
Yes, because he did awfully well last time, didn't he?
Hague was the only credible person to lead the Tories between 1997-2001 and he should never have resigned as leader in the first place.
If Hague were to be leader again, The Tories would be odds to win the next general election with a majority of 80-150 seats.
To answer some of your points, I really don't think the Labour has the money at the moment, whereas the Tories do. Assuming some of you are right that with Brown in No.10 the cash will flow in as Brown calls in his markers then Bring it on
It will be close.....
My heart wants to see Labour spanked after 10 years of deceit and incompetence (Harman as deputy leader FFS!!) but my head says a very narrow Labour victory.
Brown can reap what he sowed when the credit bubble bursts, negative equity, rising interest rates and falling house prices....
"We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs, and do hereby declare and pledge that in all our actions and deliberations their interests shall be paramount."
The Scottish 'Claim of Right', signed by Brown as a public oath. Let's stop pussy-footing around this issue. With the gross inequities surrounding tuition fees, care for the elderly, NHS prescriptions etc beginning to register in England and the plain fact that he has no mandate or power over any of these things in his own constituency, he should be reminded of that oath as publicly and forcefully as possible and required to clarify just whose interests he considers paramount in 'all his actions and deliberations' now.
Trumpeter lanfried is right to draw an analogy with Jim Callaghan, but wrong in the conclusion he draws!
Sunny Jim did indeed flirt with calling an autumn 1978 election, and the common consensus is that had he done so, the worst he would have ended up with was a hung Parliament and the possibility of a renewed Lib-Lab pact rather than 18 years of Thatcherism. So this would actually be quite a good historical omen for Brown to go to the country this autumn.
As it is, I think Gordon has no intention of risking an election at this stage was merely teasing the party (and the Lobby?) yesterday - just as Jim did in 1978 when he sang "There was I waiting at the church" at the TUC.
If we do have an early election, we might be having another a few months later due to a hung Parliament, like in 1974 under Heath and Wilson. The Opposition came out on top that time...
If Hague were to be leader again, The Tories would be odds to win the next general election with a majority of 80-150 seats.
I wish you were a bookmaker
Would dave feel bound to produce some economic policy if we had an election?
Watch the donations/loans list at the electoral commission: if he suddenly starts raising lots of cash, then he wants an election, but no cash, no election. It will be hard to raise cash pending the result of Knacker of the Yard's investigation, unless he has totally put himself in thrall to his Union chums. He may be more left than the unlamented Blair, but I do not see him going down that road just at the moment. So, 2008 if he feels lucky, 2009 if he feels OK, 2010 if the pigeons come home to roost.
An early election just makes so much sense for Labour. It would still have the old constituencies, and would catch the Tories on the backfoot while the policy commissions are all still out "investigating".
I'm certain Brown could get the money from somewhere.
eddie your right.Policy teams that are ignored,quality candidates dumped from list,news of the screws running press and dave's standing busted with large sections of the Party.Gordon would be wise to go!
He needs to keep opposition quiet in his own party.
They are furious that he's agreed the Constitution - especially as it guarantees free competition - and they're even more angry that he's announced the end of all input to policy from trades unions at the party conference (not reported in any media).
Labour supporters might be spitting, but if they think there might be an election in the offing, they are more likely to keep quiet. That's why Brown is so keen to make it sound as if he might call one.
Brown's a machine politician who makes careful calculations as to how to silence opposition.
He has no intention whatsoever of jeopardising the position he's taken so long to secure. He'll hold an election only when he thinks he's sure to win it.
It's a way to keep the lid of the pressure vessel steaming up underneath him. It won't explode this week, but the chance of some steam escaping soon is definitely growing.
the anger of Conservative supporters against Cameron on grammar schools is as nothing compared to the fury of Brown's own Labour supporters for ignoring them, and reaching out to recruit Liberal Democrats and others.
Neither David or Tony have any deep seated convictions about political principles. Gordon Brown, I suspect, has some. However, whether this would be enough to convince the electorate to favour him in an election, when he will face a barrage of anti-Scottish propaganda, is questionable. Boring, uncharismatic, but vaguely principled Scottish Brown v skin deep charismatic, lightweight, Cameron - it's not much of a glittering choice either way. What we need is someone of Maggie's political vision, conviction and mesmerising charisma. But where is he/she?
tapestry you should know that it goes way,way deeper than grammar schools.Remember the iceberg!
If Cameron is to stop the Constitution, he has to form an alliance with Labour MPs like Frank Field, Gisella Stuart and Austin MItchell. If he makes a tub-thumping attack on Labour as his start to the campaign for a referendum, he could alienate exactly the support he will need from Labour MPs, if he is to succeed.
Gordon Brown principles? Centralised Power? Jealousy of independence?
Cameron is committed to localism, and democracy. I know which most people prefer.
Ken Clarke should be removed from his job by his constituents - or are they in favour of sending the greatest embarrassment known to mankind out to represent them. Lovely chap but completely batty.
Think we would have won the 2005 GE with Michael Howard.... but he stated in an interview he backed the Iraq War & would do the same again! It's really time for our Party to get mean & nasty...take the fight to Labour...at every interview include a list of their failures(as they do)...stop being so nice!
Hague was the only credible person to lead the Tories between 1997-2001 and he should never have resigned as leader in the first place.
Look, I know you like him. I rather liked him. The country didn't.
At least Gordon will have one up on Tony - as Last Prime Minister of Britain, first Mayor of England.
Gordo is as crafty and devious as a bag of ferrets.
He wants the limelight - but he wants it for another Parliament as well. I suspect the 'what-if' calculations going on in his mind would rival those of the global warming fanatics and their computer models. The actual results may be same in both cases - wrong!
[secret] The election will be in June 2009. [/secret]
(Please don't tell anybody)
GB has already locked Ming in for a few years, cos if they sack him he'll be across the floor in a flash.
And GB has got DC locked in too.
GB the newest leader yet by far the most established, the most competent, and the only one with ANY track record of delivery.
Ten more years.
I must say I do agree with Ned "stop being so nice" Each and every week Blair came out with his list of ten years of better things. Why did DC bring up his own list of 10 years of failure etc. People think labour has been good for them becuase Tony etc keep repeating minimum wage, economy, etc etc etc. Why doesnt DC keep banging on about Iraq. Over and over and over and over again. Get the message home.
It doesnt have to mean we leave Iraq; but it does mean the goverment lied to us. If they are willing to risk the lives of troops overa lie, then what are they will to risk for your vote?
A wise man in Gordo's boots would call a September Election, old Electoral Roll. (The Rolling Registers are never up to date how ever hard council officers try). He can't do anything about the new constituencies, the order has already been laid.
If he doesn't go then he has the joy of waiting for things to get better but the laws of politics mean they can't. So, he would have to go 5 yrs and 17 days after the last election, June 2010.
If we reduce the Labour majority to -1 we have won absolutely. If we reduce the Labour majority to under 10 we have won in the medium term.
I would love a Conservative government with an absolute majority and I do think it is possible. BUT I am concerned about the size of the majority and I am concerned that that would not check the Lib Dems who are the MRSA which grows on the surface of politics.
A Lib Lab pact could cleanse British politics of the Lib Dems for a generation and if that means we will have to endure a quarter century of Tory government as a consequence, well, I can live with that.
An election in the autumn? Dave will be struggling unless he promises a referendum on staying in the EU (not just on the constitution).
Nice idea Peter - just try the Iraq card and we'll rewind the Parliamentary tapes to show the Tories (pre dossier) screaming at the PM to stop messing about and get behind our true ally the USA. I bet your nice man Dave can be seen somewhere in amongst the brayers...
Well Hilary Benn was a State school kid of course, courtesy of his "egalitarian" parents so possibly a different case.
Same State School Polly Toynbee attended.....still a £6 million house in Holland Park is more expensive than school fees
Labour's depth of incompetence is breathtaking.
Health- a disaster.
Home Office- disaster
Immigration plot lost
Prisons- overflowing, crooks let out early, not that many arrested
Multiculturalism spreading discord
NHS computers- expensive mess
ID cards expensive mess
Tax credits expensive mess
Pensions daylight robbery
Iraq Lies and deceit, expensive mess
education so dumbed down that some people believe what new Labour say.
Credibility spinning into the dust.
The country is in a mess. Come on Tories. Sock it to Labour hard and give us an alternative.
Hughes View >> Yes sure you will find Dave saying based on the govt supplied evidence to invade iraq. Shame that an MI6 report was written by Campbell though.
Hughes View >> Sorry did not fully read your reply before I launched my reply. Yes pre-dossier Tories were saying invade iraq. But the argument is not longer of should we have invaded we now need to be discussing what the hell to do. You cant destroy something (the iraqi regime) without having something to replace it with. We have no clear action plan, things need to be defined in iraq rather than this wondering course we are currently on.
There won't be an early election for one main reason: money. The Labour Party don't have any cash and cannot possible fight an election when they are in a financial position so bad that if they were a business they would be calling in the receivers.
An Early Election?
What would Stalin do ? An election with only one party to vote for ?
Look, I know you like him. I rather liked him. The country didn't.
And the British public got what they wanted and deserved, a Nazi government that has fucked us all over.
Post a Comment