Tuesday, June 26, 2007

New Poll Shows Five Point Tory Lead, But So What?

Today's Independent Communicate Research poll demonstrates what I have been saying - that the polls will be all over the place for the next few months. It shows an increased Tory lead to 5 points, compared to the Ipsos Mori poll over the weekend which showed a 3 point Labour lead. The only thing consistent in all polls at the moment is a worsening position for the Liberal Democrats.

I'm not going to comment on every single poll that is released, but I though it worth mentioning this one as it proved my point!

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Off topic I know, but does anyone else think it's a disgrace that as at 10:30 am the BBC news website is leading with Blair's appointment as a middle east envoy and Paris Hilton's release from jail, rather than the serious flooding affecting a substantial number of people in the UK at the moment.

No mention of it at all on the front page (except in the most popular articles at the moment section) which tells you what really matters to Aunties readers.

Howard said...

Oh I bet you will comment especially if Brown does not provide Labour a lift. Did you watch Luntz in Newsnight last night? It was very interesting.

chris paul said...

Excellent polling result. It shows the wheels are coming off the Brown bandwagon.

Chris Paul's Mum said...

Chris!

Get off that computer and go to school!

You can't spend all day on that thing!

Have you washed behind your ears this morning sweetie?

Jail House Lawyer said...

I'm feeling left out ;-(

eric the fish said...

Come on Tim

Steve said...

anonymous 10.30

bbc.co.uk has 'Hundreds flee over dam burst fear' as the lead story.

What page are you lookoing at?

mark williams said...

The MORI poll was a Bob Worcester special. If you looked at the small print it showed that 20% of those questioned said they voted Conservative in 2005 and 35% said they voted Labour- the national totals in 2005 were 32% and 35%, so it looks like the polling took place mostly in Labour heartlands. MORI do not adjust to allow for previous voting intentions, so their poll was always likely to be a bit of a rogue poll.

Anonymous said...

bbc news 24 is leading on the floods in sheffield and chesterfield - my home town - im not sure why there is such anti BBC comment on these blogs.. they seem to be covering the story well - interviwing householders and small businesses, and reporting on the fire and rescue service attempts to clean up the mess. stop attacking the BBC!!

Gordon is the P.M. said...

Anonymous said...

bbc news 24 is leading on the floods in sheffield and chesterfield - my home town - im not sure why there is such anti BBC comment on these blogs..

They have to blame someone or something for being out of power for so long.

Geezer said...

I don't get this "all over the place" thing. One, very unrepresetnative poll skewed in Labour's favour, and almost every other poll since October has shown DC with a clear lead. Labour are 5 points behind after weeks of Brownite propaganda in the MSM.
More of a plop than a bounce really, but that's usually what you get with a S***!

McStalin recruits a Tory? said...

quintin daives deflects to Labour...any thoughts on this if it is true?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6241928.stm

could understand some Tories shifting to Labour when Blair was in charge, but to join McStalin Broon...

What was he promised?

media scum said...

Quentin Davies, Paris Hilton and floods across the UK. A good news mix ......................and a good day to bury bad news perhaps ?
It seems that Quentin feels Cameron is going nowhere.

Roger Thornhill said...

re: Quentin Davies.

I suppose he thinks that a bad decision is better than no decision.

Madasafish said...

Mr Davies said he had "found increasingly I am naturally in agreement" with the Labour Party and praised Mr Brown as "a leader I have always greatly admired, who I believe is entirely straightforward, and who has a towering record, and a clear vision for the future of our country which I fully share".

I think QD has emigrated mentally to a different planet...

Butser said...

Polls? Far too early to see a trend. Or indeed anything much at all.

Let's see what they say once our new-grin new-old-lab new-policy PM-to-be starts clunking. Methinks he should become known as Gordon Bennett quite quickly.

garypowell said...

2 years before the last election Labour were showing up to 14% leads in opinion polls. They also had a 6% lead during the last days before polling. Unyet only won by 3% on election day.

So from last times experience alone, based on these polls, and following the trend.

If an election was held tomorrow the Conservatives could win by 8%

If an election was held in 2 years time the Conservatives could win by a clear 16%.

Recent experience has indicated that a Labour government is more popular mid-term than at real elections. Unlike Tory governments have shown themselves to be. This FACT may have its excuses like for example the IRAQ war.

But there again it may not.

It could be that the public are really only paying proper attention during election campaigns, and the media/BBC at this time have to ‘behave’ themselves a little better at least.

Also Labour are so buzy bribeing the electorate with their own cash, so much of the normal time.

That during run ups to elections not enough people notice anymore, when Labour indicate, they are going to bribe the electorate with their own cash, even more often, and more covertly next time.

“BEEN THERE SEEN THAT BY NOW.” And the electorate will know by then, if they do not by now, who really ends up paying the bill in the end.