But, intriguingly, there are others at the heart of Project Gordon who think an all-embracing government could go a lot further than that. "Will we offer jobs to Liberal Democrats?" mused one. "I'd say it's more a question of when. Now, from a position of strength; in the run-up to the general election when we may need to; or afterwards, when we may have to." Could Brown really be about to invite Lib Dems to join his cabinet - Menzies Campbell as foreign secretary, say, and Nick Clegg at Environment? Unlikely maybe, but I have encountered few prepared to dismiss the idea entirely. On all opinion-poll and electoral evidence, Labour seems on course to do less well at the next election than at the last. In 2005, the slump in majority was attributed to a relatively small net move away from Labour and a slightly smaller net switch to the Lib Dems. Gordon Brown needs those votes back. Even without an open change in policy, he could turn the page on Iraq by appointing Campbell, Britain's best-known mainstream moderate opponent of the war. I trespass into such a secret society at my own risk, but I do know that Brown refers to Campbell as "my friend" and that both men have strong links with Edinburgh. The original Ashdown/Blair consultative committee on constitutional reform, formed after the
1997 election victory, was a largely Scottish affair, driven by Robin Cook, Robert MacLennan . . . and Campbell. Brown could claim to be completing the plans for "a progressive century" of centre-left government, abandoned by Blair when his landslide meant he didn't need Liberal Democrat votes in parliament after all. Things have got a lot tighter in the division lobbies since then. Rebellions are habit-forming, and a decent quota of Lib Dems would at least cancel out the "John McDonnell" faction.
Boulton says that no one he talks to in the Brown circle rules it out. Personally, I think it is probably fanciful, but let's look at the consequences if Brown did offer and Campbell accepted.
In my view it would lead to the breakup of the LibDems and to the completion of the left wing realignment which Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown failed to achieve in the late 1990s. There's no doubt that about half the LibDems would think a deal with Brown would be a fantastic achievement, but it's also clear that the other half certainly would not. They are the true inheritors of the Gladstonian liberal mantle and they see very little that is liberal in the Brown policy programme. These are the 'Orange Bookers'. They would have to be dragged kicking and screaming into any sort of tie-up with the Labour Party.
The Brown/Campbell personal relationship should not be underestimated in this. It was at the heart of Ming's disastrous Harrogate speech in March. Ming would love to be in Brown's government. But the reason he won't be is that he knows it would lead to a total split in his own Party. It would make the to-ing and fro-ing of the Welsh Liberal Democrats look like a storm in a tea-cup. The devil in me says 'bring it on', but the realist in me knows that it won't happen.
27 comments:
Oi I just said this in the comments section of the previous post are you pinching my mojo dale
I suspect at the next GE we will see a reduction of LibbyDem MP's. They can finish themselves off, and we can lend a helping hand. But a 'coalition' with Labour is improbable- namely due to all the bitching about the Libbies by just about the entirety of Scottish Labour, and their MSP's! It would make your ears turn red! The Libbies are political cowards- they would support on an 'issue-by-issue' basis. Coalition- without responsibility. Based on the Libbies performance in devolved government- that's just as well...
It would be the end of the LibDems for a generation if they did it - especially before (rather than after) the next election. It would be a clear admission that LD is not a third way but a synonym for Labour. People will be itching to give Lab a bloody nose come the next election - so where else would they go but... Dave.
So actually yes - it's a top idea.
Ming in a Brown cabinet? Honestly, can't the man see that his real New Labour soul-mate is another party leader; although on second thoughts, maybe said leader is a little too like Brown's soon to be dear departed ex-best friend!
Yes but Brown has done enough talking anout it to say that he has a mandate for Constitutional reform if he get any sort of coalition together it would be with PR on the table for the Lib Dums.They will go for it in this context
I think you have understand this whole story in the context of the Scottish problem Labour have and the PR left coalition ,solution they envisage. I think therefore there is almost certainly somthing in it .
Heed my words the apocalype is truly upon us
"There's no doubt that about half the LibDems would think a deal with Brown would be a fantastic achievement, but it's also clear that the other half certainly would not."
You're basically saying the LibDems would just go back to being the SDP (who would return to the Labour fold) and the Liberal Party. Are there still SDPites left in the LibDems who could go back?
The interesting bit is whether in that even the rump Liberals could keep the party organisation together long enough to either attract Cameronian Tories.
In the event of Cameron hanging on long enough that more hard-righters leave the Tories that the remaining Liberals would join him. Labour and the Tories could then do a name change to, erm, the Democratic Party and the Monarchist-but-Republican Party.
I think first of all Ming Campbell needs a verve gas attack.If he's put in Government this country will be like sleeping beauty.Nothing will get done and everybody else will have a chance to f@ck us.
Without question we are going to see serious changes before the next election. We will have an amnesty for migrants (2 million more Labour votes), we could easily see Ming in government (what better way to solve the Iraq issue for gordo than to make Ming Foreign sec and let HIM get us out) and who knows about PR. Labour will be demolished under the present FPTP sysytem and they know it, they have hardly any members or funds which which to fight an effective election so a media based/PR promising election in 2009/10 could give Gordo the best chance of staying in power.
40% con, 30% Lab and 15% Libs and others would still see a lib/Lab leader asked to form a government would it not? either way Cameron would be stuffed under PR.
Jilted John
I do not agree that Broon can threaten PR for the next GE , he cannot do it from a losing position . He can do it from a coalition after the GE though which is why the NewStatesman said it was not so much "if" as "when". Otherwise I agree
One does not have to 'finish off' the Lib-dems. By kicking out Kennedy and replacing him with a bloke who now should be in a mental zimmer frame, they have done it all themselves.
Beware an old man in a hurry.
Ming either gets into bed with Gordon within next 3 years or his chances of a cabinet job (and his political career) are over.
Ming will see it as part of the Ashdown/Blair discussions in the mid 90s.
If the LD party let Paddy do it then why cant they let Ming do it now? He will also protect his MPs from losing their seats at the next GE.
The essence of any deal would be PR - Proportional Representation. Brown would imagine himself a safe victor in any contest based on PR, in a coalition with the Lib Dems.
But has he thought it through?
The Labour Party could fracture further under PR. The left-wing might well decide to split away from their uncomfortable allaince inside NuLab.
The left wing are eurosceptic, and this wing could even decide to form an alliance with a fracturing Conservative right wing to form a eurosceptic pro-democracy alliance.
Essentially the consequences are too hard to call, and full of multiple dangers for all players. Brown is likely as you say, to seek safer ground and will not commit Britain to PR. It is not a dead cert by any means.
The left wing are eurosceptic, and this wing could even decide to form an alliance with a fracturing Conservative right wing to form a eurosceptic pro-democracy alliance.
Mr. Tapestry I believe you may have been drinking this lovely afternoon ?
The point about PR is that big parties fracture. Once they are split up, they are capable of negotiating coalitions. These could be completely unforeseeable, and a long way from what voters intend to achieve by voting for the parties they support.
For example, 20% of Conservatives support the aims of the UKIP. PR might surge support, and pressure the right into a generally more eurosceptic stance.
The same could happen to the left wing of Labour.
The eurosceptic wings of right and left could band together for the purpose of EU withdrawal. It's not impossible.
Now I'll have a drink..of coffee!
It's quite interesting to note what has happened to the Progressive Democrats in Ireland. only 2 TD's are now in the Dail after the last election. The party was wiped out. Liberal Democrats should be taking note because the PD's operate in the same way.
Now, regarding Ming in the cabinet, I really can't see it. Plus, I doubt the Labour party will be keen on such a move.
PR is not the disaster for the UK it is often painted.
As far as Eurosceptic parties are concerned, adding UKIP and BNP support to eurosceptic tory MPs could mean the UK leaves the EU.
However weak and ineffectual the govt was, that would count as some result....
That's right - string the LibDems along to the next election, then dump them. It worked for Blair and it'll work for Brown.
I think Brown would have to offer PR. Without it most LudDims would feel they were selling out & correctly be worried about being swallowed up in the Labour machine & finding themselves relegated to a ceremonial role.
On the other hand there is no good reason why Brown should not give it. It would certainly establish the centre/left as the dominant force in UK politics & we know he thinks more about long term political philosophy than most politicians. Also he gets on personally with Ming, which you can take any way you like.
I have said previously that the Tories could guarantee winning the next election in a PR accepting coalition with the LDs but the same applies to Labour.
Whether the Tories could pick up some orange bookers or not would probably depend on whether they also had a damascene conversion to PR.
Mind you we could see the election after next being very like Scotland's recent one. A Labour government, discredited by years in power, facing a party committed to low business taxes7 growth.
HF 3:01: How will Ming protect his MPs by doing this? Are you suggesting that taking a post will mean an electoral pact too? So Lab and Lib Dem candidates in marginals between them and/or in Lib-Con marginals could be stood down? That would kill the Tories first and then the Lib Dems - the one party state Gordon dreams of (joke).
I think the offer will be the alternative vote- not proportional- for Westminster, and STV for local government. WE might see Lords reform too. Hallelujah!
I was more thinking that he offers PR in the manifesto to get a solid agreement with Lib's ahead of the next GE. This then allows him the prospect of staying in power.
Gordon Brown and Ming Campbell are 'old pals' from Westminster not Edinburgh. Ming went to Glasgow Uni with John Smith and Donald Dewar, different generations. Brown was only in Edinburgh to study before a short stint in media and then politics in London. Ming might live in Edinburgh but that's a weekend retreat... nah, these Unionist buddies are made in London from girners.
However they do fly the London/Edinburgh shuttle together regularly.
I think there would have to be a firm electoral pact. Blair, in 1997, specificly promised a referendum on PR, which he obviously cycically broke. A promise, on its own, therefore has no credibility.
Brown to come out publicly for PR? No, can't see it.
He may be dropping hints to Ming or even saying it explicitly in private but he's stringing him along like Blair did to Ashdown.
He only wants to ensure the LibDems are cut off as a potentially aggressive opponent as they have been in the last few elections but not in 1997. Brown's aiming to repeat the 1997 strategy. (Bit odd since it's Labour in government and the unpopular ones and the LibDems "success" in 1997 was only due to the collapse of the Tory vote - their's actually felll as well)
However Brown's sweet talking seems to be working as the LibDems are now listless under Ming as he dreams of Cabinet status whilst all around his party loses votes and seats; the currency he needs to get that position.
Brown can't give or accept PR.
1. It will deprive him of the Parliamentary power first past the post can deliver. Brown sharing power with others? You're having a laugh?
2. The Labour party won't accept it - less so after what is happening in Wales and particularly in Scotland. They've been more than decimated in local government in Scotland after accepting PR for local elections. And they're out of power in the Scottish Parliament.
The majority of LibDem members in Wales know the momentum is against Labour as the recent vote showed but Ming doesn't care as long as he can become Foreign Secretary.
If Ming thinks he will keep the same number of seats or more he's letting his dream of cabinet position delude his self.
For a start their moving backwards under Ming and only reached the position they have by aggressively opposing Labour. By going soft on Labour - the government in power - he is also adding weight to the argument that a Liberal vote is a Labour vote.
Their seats will be picked off from both sides in a traditional squeeze leaving Ming with even less leverage to get concessions if there is a hung Parliament.
Brown's successfully neutered the LibDems because of Ming's naive ambition.
I don't think Ming is being quite because he is ambitious. I think he is being quiet because he is useless.
We seem to be in agreement that it will take a full blown pact rather than a promise to get the LDs on side.
Whether Brown will go for that is something we can't know till we know. I don't think Labour would like it but they might well like losing less.
The left/right realignment might not happen like this but, believe, me it's going to happen one way or another.
A big majority of the country have essentially Conservative views. However, a large number of those hate the Conservatives for historical and tribal reasons. Tory is as big an insult to a large proportion of the population today as it was in the Civil War. That's why the media keep on using it.
So we have a majority of the seats and even votes going to left wing parties but a majority of the population being right wing. Either the politicians will convince the electorate of their way of thinking or the other way around. What is unsustainable is the mismatach.
Under first past the post, therebis only room for one left wing party in this country. Even under PR, the Liberals might be sorely disappointed as voters turn to new parties who more accurately represent their disparate opinions.
So assuming we keep PR, either Labour is going to squeeze out the Liberals or the Liberals are going to overtake Labour. Before the election of Ming, I thought that the latter was more likely but now it seems that Ming is just a socialist in yellow and lacks the vision to be a serious contender for Government (which overtaking Labour would imply).
"Even under PR, the Liberals might be sorely disappointed as voters turn to new parties who more accurately represent their disparate opinions."
Agreed Scary - and a astrong argument for PR, which I think even a surprising number of active LDs would agree with.
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