This analysis is spot on. The LibDems must fear that Gordon Brown will shoot their fox by shoring up support on the left, particularly in the north. But the danger for the Conservatives is different.For the other two main party leaders, Mr Blair's departure will also have
consequences. For Sir Menzies (Ming) Campbell, the LibDems' increasingly
beleaguered leader, the danger is that Mr Blair will take with him his own
party's best issue for the past four years: opposition to the Iraq war. Squeezed
by the Tories on greenery and civil rights, Sir Menzies will find it hard to map
out ground that is both distinctive and attractive to Lib Dem supporters, who
have already begun to slide away.For Mr Cameron, however, the passing of Mr Blair from British politics is the opportunity he has been waiting for. Over the past few months, attacking Mr Blair has been a frustrating task for the Tory leader, partly because he often agrees with him and partly because Mr Brown was the real target. With Mr Brown at last in charge and Mr Blair gone, Mr Cameron can now complete the final part of his own metamorphosis.
The trick that Mr Cameron will attempt with ever more daring, like Mr Blair before him, will be to become a figure who soars above and beyond party. Mr Cameron's appeal will be not to Mr Blair's “progressives” but to all voters of decency, optimism and goodwill—what he will no doubt in due course call a coalition of the socially
responsible. Should he succeed, a Tory victory is now there for the taking. And
that may be the most important consequence of Mr Blair's going.
There are many Tories who believe the next election is all but won and that Gordon Brown is a leader who will not be able to appeal to middle England. They may be right, but they shouldn't count on it. Brown should never be underestimated. He has spent the last ten years planning for this moment and he will not give up the levers of power easily.
The key is how David Cameron responds. He wouldn't be human if he didn't feel a tad intimidated by the Great Clunking Fist. Brown is the first political leader in years to become Prime Minister with a firmly rooted intellectual and philosophical position. In fact, I can't think who the last one was. Lloyd George perhaps? This gives him an incredibly strong base to build on, but it also means that he can be more easily second guessed. Most of his beliefs have been articulated in books, pamphlets and articles over the last twenty five years. He will be under no illusion about the level of resources that CCHQ have put in to building up the Brown Dossier. Somewhere, deep in the bowels of CCHQ there is someone - I know not who - who has become a world authority on Gordon Brown. This man or woman will be much in demand by David Cameron and his team.
As I said in my Telegraph column yesterday, I don't think Cameron should do much by way of attacking Brown over the next few weeks. Let him get into office and then spend July using the Brown dossier to build up a sustained level of attack on him. The Opposition will have to become much more confrontational between now and the end of the year, and as the Economist hints at, herein lies a danger for David Cameron. He's at his best when he seems to float over party politics, rising above the left-right debate. How he combines this talent with an ability to knock Gordon Brown without appearing to do so may well determine David Cameron's success between now and the next election.
32 comments:
Gordon Brown is a formidable politician - and his 'force' should not be under-estimated.
However, Brown lacks 'charisma' and despite what some people think - that counts for alot.
David Cameron should be cautious when he conformts Brown - and his words should be well thought out.
Language is a powerful tool - but but personality will get you everywhere. That is why DC is way ahead of Brown when it comes to connecting with the people. David Cameron is sensible and he is fair minded. DC is intelligent and he 'gets it'. Gordon Brown is clueless in that repsect.
I hate typos. Why can't we edit on this blog? :)
Cameron also has to be extremely cautious about exactly what the prevailing political mood in the country actually is.
Every speech or interview Brown has given on the topic of his personality and style has attacked the notion of celebrity, presentation, spin etc. To Westminster watchers this might seem rich but it may land with the public. Cameron's 'everyman' persona has to be very carefully pitched if it's not to rebound spectacularly and gove Brown the 'time for a change' vote come '09.
The big fister has a tougher job than DC in that he somehow has to create the illusion that his is a new government that has nothing to do with Blair. You can already see it in the early statements regarding the NHS.
Thus far al beeb are supporting him fully with lead coverage of every word as though the new messiah is now here.
Given the dead tree press lead by bloggers attacked his budget spin bollox in hours, it will very difficult for him to get away with the "its all down to Tony" line.
He has already got the Sun's back up with the way they were taking the piss today out of his veil at yesterdays media launch, so he has some ground to go.
It also looks as though the last week when he disappeared has been spent on surgery to create a permanent grin.
It is going to be interesting to see how long he can keep it up especially when he has to talk to real people rather than being surrounded by hand picked supporters.
Gordon Brown lacks patience. He doesn't suffer fools gladly.
He could lose his 'smile' when the press start to his buttons - which they will do.
I'm looking forward to witnessing his (obvious) intolerance on national TV. Character flaws abundant! :)
PUSH his buttons !
PS> no edit is a bummer?
"Somewhere, deep in the bowels of CCHQ there is someone - I know not who - who has become a world authority on Gordon Brown."
..bloody hell, is there no limit to tory inhumanity ?
I fail to understand the wisdom behind giving Brown the rest of May and June with a daily free shy at the coconuts as you suggest.
This in itself is bound to give Brown a significant poll boost. In addition the BBC will bend all its energies to building Brown up as a formidable PM-designate so that Brown gets six weeks free publicity untrammeled by Conservative opposition, publicity for which even Lord Cashpoint could not raise the loot. Far better to spoil the party by a constant guerilla campaign forcing Brown to defend the indefensible just when he wants to stick to what he perceives as his strengths. He is not going to spend much time on Pensions, the West Lothian Question, the SNP, Iraq etc. if the Tories don't keep on at his failures and his character flaws.
Laying off him now will allow Brown to set the agenda unopposed. What will the electorate make of a Tory party that gives Brown a free ride to the Throne?
The electorate ought to have a daily reminder of his character flaws, his mistakes and be reminded that he paid for Blair's illegal war in which he is an aider and abettor in the legal sense, of each of the acts of theft he has committed in looting the public's purses by stealth, so that for every positive there is a double negative. Otherwise he has a big chance to build up some momentum.
An old Etonian booking a bagpiper just looks like a shallow,posh twat.
all cameron has to do is keep hammering his record on tax rises,gold sales,tax credit foul ups and his lack of mandate cos blair promised a full term, better yet keep talking about bliar and his temper will be his undoing.
Dave could try a policy that doesn't fall aprt within 24 hours.
Canvas said that Brown lacks charisma. But so does Cameron. He comes across as empty and as light as thistledown, going wherever the prevailing breeze blows him.
Canvas digs in deeper in a different post, saying Brown lacks patience. He does? I'd say that is one discipline he has in abundance. Ten years?
Verity, I suppose it's all subjective. But I think that Gordon Brown has all the characteristics of a sullen toad. He constantly sulks and his persona shouts 'INTOLERANCE' to me.
Also, I think DC is a charismatic person - and he clearly attracts public support. The recent local elections and polls prove this. It was only two short years ago that the word 'Tory' would send people running - shaking in their boots! :)
Interesting article Iain and I agree with a lot of what you say.
We have another few weeks of Gordie trying to grab the headlines for himself as he and Labour do what they do best, play for the media headlines while failing to govern. It is something that they have spent 10 years perfecting and in the last year they surpassed themselves in that respect.
Many say that we must not underestimate the "Macivity style clunking fist" that is Brown the politician. He would not have got where he is in the Labour party, I mean crowned leader and PM without so much as a leadership contest never mind a GE!
And there lies his greatest weakness, in achieving victory without ever having to fight a contest in his own party while dominating domestic politics from his fiefdom in the treasury. He has taken away any mandate to govern in many voters minds, and the fact that he has neither the courage or conviction to risk his ambitions on something as fundamental as democracy really does show an almost Stalinist view of political debate within a party.
As for David Cameron not getting to involved, that is why he has the likes of Osborne, Davis and Hague in the other 3 top jobs. Just remember how effective people like Robin Cooke were in the run up to 97'.
"Brown is the first political leader in years to become Prime Minister with a firmly rooted intellectual and philosophical position. In fact, I can't think who the last one was. Lloyd George perhaps?"
Churchill & Thatcher spring to mind.
I think Cameron's best bet is to wait till Brown gets something clearly wrong & home in on it. Brown is generally considereed the more competent if less charming so he has to knock that aspect. Just attacking Brown from the start would merely lose his reputation for charm (sending a piper to Brown's launch was just such a charmless & childish act which the Tories would have been unlikely to do for ANY other nationality). To beat Brown on policy screw up he will have to make good use of his whole shadow cabinet, who whatever the individual qualities of Cameron & Brown, are clearly more competent overall than the cabinet.
For Brown to beat Cameron he has to clearly run the country better than Blair & therefore better than we expect Cameron to do. I would say Brown should cut corporation taxes, but then I always do, & get some real reformers, backed by some of the better civil servants he has been working with running the civil service & housing.
If one of these left-wingers can finally summon the bottle to stand against Broon, then Conservative sniping could be effective and erode Broon's support within the Labour Party, as his public performance in having to ACTUALLY debate issues may not come over well with the electorate. And there is nothing more likely to focus the mind of a Labour MP with a marginal constituency.
Otherwise if Broon is going to be elected unopposed what good would CCHQ sniping achieve? - it is hardly going to stop him getting elected. It would just be water under the bridge.
I heard as much as I could stomach of Brown speaking yesterday - talk about Mom and Apple Pie!
Oh, he wants everything to be nice, and everybody to be nice, and nice things to happen - well, it would be an odd politician who said he wanted everything to get worse, wouldn't it?
So what of substance was there, from this supposed great intellect?
Er, nothing that I could hear.
He cannot disassociate himself from the last ten years, from the increasing flood of bankruptcies, the appalling level of Govt debt, the failures in the Home Office, NHS and education, because he has held the second most powerful position in Govt for all of those 10 years.
He and his supporters will have to tie themselves up in knots to try to get out of that, and the public and the media - and the blogosphere - are far too savvy to to be fooled.
Will the Labour vote die completely? no of course not, there are far too many clients who rely on a Labour administration buying their votes.
But will the Blair/Brown axis have alienated huge swathes of the electorate - undeniable in my view.
Iain says Cameron is "at his best when he seems to float over party politics, rising above the left-right debate."
But he wasn't elected as leader of the Floaters' Party. Why is he not advancing Conservative principles and policies, or else acknowledging that he doesn't realy believe in them and making way for someone who does?
Loathsome and fatally flawed as Brown is, at least he has a grim kind of integrity and knows who he is (an unreconstructed socialist). By contrast Cameron is more like a hot air balloon - rudderless and drifting wherever the prevailing political wind takes him. A true floater.
Anon says: "Loathsome and fatally flawed as Brown is, at least he has a grim kind of integrity and knows who he is (an unreconstructed socialist). By contrast Cameron is more like a hot air balloon - rudderless and drifting wherever the prevailing political wind takes him. A true floater."
I would say Brown is more like a deconstructed socialist.
I would say Cameron genuinely reflects the views of his generation. He isn't a rebel - yet he rejects extremists in all forms.
He must be doing something right...
Iain you write:
"Brown is the first political leader in years to become Prime Minister with a firmly rooted intellectual and philosophical position".
Would that similar qualities could be associated with Dave. Sadly he seems on a par with BLiar in the 'firmly rooted and intellectual' department. He could learn a few things from UKIP.
wonderfulforhisage says: " He could learn a few things from UKIP."
Like what? How to become a non-entity? UKiP are a waste of space.
Remember the state of the public finances GB inherited (complete with public sector debt repayment)? See what he is bequeathing. The largest negative 'added value' in history.
Not the only measure of a chancellor, for sure. And we have enjoyed low inflation over that time (though if anyone suggests that is anything to do with interest rates, their economic grasp is shaky).
GB's macro-economic record is thus modest. His micro-economic record---pensions, tax-credits etc---is shambolic.
'DC should not attack GB over the next 6/8 weeks'? That looks like odd advice to me.
I think Cameron reeks of patronisation and condescension. "Look at me! I can get right down to the level of the little people and can act relaxed about it." No thanks.
The media will be all agog to Brown and the Labour Party, so Dave is far better to plan his attack for when the new public persona and polical posture of Brown becomes more delineated and the luvvies and sychophants have calmed down.
The Duke of Wellington never attacked until he believed he had a certain victory - and he was always right.
I agree with Judith. The problem is still, look at the alternative. Cameron just isn't brave enough, imaginative enough or intellectually adept enough to bash Brown. He can do all his little twizzly things like going and staying with a Pakistani family and pretending to serve behind the shop counter, the way he pretended to drive sled dogs in Norway and the way he pretended to be cleaning grafitti off a newly painted wall by holding up a new, unused paint brush and smiling at the camera, but the man has no substance.
I hate Brown - marginally less than I hate Blair, but still, a robust hatred - but he is a bruiser and Cameron is a silly little fidget.
And as Anonymous said, he wasn't elected leader of the Floaters' Party.
Forthurst: The Duke of Wellington is my favourite.
Verity, is there anyone you do like that would be acceptable to the rest of the country?
The only way Cameron is going to rise above party, is to campaign for a Written Constitution that enshrines personal liberty and protection of the individual from an aggressive State- England has shown its disapproval of Nu-Lab a week ago, Scotland and Wales are going their own way. We are in a constitutional mess, with an unelected big Stater about to seize power. More than a change of parting is required now.
Verity - it would be a huge mistake to underestimate how smart Cameron is. Of course he has made mistakes, but I promise you that he comes across to a lot of people who usually loathe politicians as a 'real' person, rather than a construct.
He doesn't inspire me - probably I'm too long in the tooth to be inspired - but he does give me confidence that the Conservative Party is well on its way back.
Of course there is still a lot to do behind the scenes, but we are getting there. Have patience, this is going to be a long haul.
Chatterbox- Yes. David Davis or William Hague. Both with plenty of experience in the real world, and both likable bruisers.
Judith, thanks for your response. I think Dave is a condescending twit. I don't like the way he hawked that disabled child around every feature editor in Britain. I don't like it that he does/did drugs, which is against the law. I don't like it that he evades the question in the same smarty-pants condescending tone that Blair avoided questions about the MMR jab and Leo.
I don't like it that he has no vision except for gazing out over the ice floes of Norway. I don't like it that he has hopped nimbly onto the "man made climate change" garbage in the face of the entire history of the planet Earth.
A lot of people think these points about Dave are grave enough to put their X elsewhere in the next election.
I think the real issue for the Tories is they'll try and paint Gordon as the man behind Blair pulling the levers, however, Brown can quite easily point to Davy and say 'do you want another Blair?'
Gordon Brown won't win the next general election because (bizarrely) Cameron is far more progressive...DC is for the underdog. And so am I.
"Somewhere, deep in the bowels of CCHQ there is someone - I know not who - who has become a world authority on Gordon Brown. This man or woman will be much in demand by David Cameron and his team"
Let's hope to Christ it isn't John Glen or we're all screwed.
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