Monday, August 21, 2006

Poll Gives Cameron 9 Point Lead

I understand there's an ICM poll out tomorrow showing the Conservatives on 40%, Labour 31% and LibDems 22%. This is the highest Conservative per centage for 14 years in an ICM poll and the lowest Labour share for 19 years. Before we pop the champagne corks, Electoral Calculus calculates that a nine point lead would only give the Conservatives a majority of 10. I predict the following comments on PoliticalBetting.com...

Mark Senior: "Complete rubbish. It's a two horse race and the LibDems are winning here"
Peter Pidgeon: "This is yet more evidence that Ming is leading us to victory"
Rik: "Further proof that Cameron's Conservatives are heading for a 350 seat majority"
Nick Palmer MP: "I'm f***ed"
Alastair Matlock: "This is rather good news"

Now which are those seats I should be applying for? Must dash...

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Don't get me wrong, I'm fully in favour of David Cameron's attempts to drag the Conservative Party into the present but how can the electorate say they'd vote Tory when they know nothing about what they stand for. In short, if a snap election happened tomorrow, what would Cameron have a mandate to do?

Still, that's all hypothetical but one thing's for real: Gordon Brown must be getting ever more worried that he'll be ejected the moment the voters can express themselves.

F.R. said...

If a snap election happened tomorrow what would Labour voters be voting for? Anyway, in our glorious, unenthusiastic, cynical country we vote against people and parties, not for them. and we all know what we will be voting against.

Prodicus said...

Gordon Brown must be getting ever more worried that he'll be ejected the moment the voters can express themselves.

Or his party members. I'm not putting any money on Brown winning a pre-GE leadership contest.

bebopper said...

Never mind Political betting; I'm looking forward to seeing what the doomsayers on ConservativeHome have to say.
I'm particularly looking forward to seeing whether Tim Hames of The Times will revise his forecast of a couple of weeks ago that Labour would lead by the end of August.

billy said...

Anonymous said...
Don't get me wrong, I'm fully in favour of David Cameron's attempts to drag the Conservative Party into the present but how can the electorate say they'd vote Tory when they know nothing about what they stand for.

Well, I know one thing they stand for and that is a public school education for the rich few.
I voted Conservative from Heath through to Major but can't see me voting against my current excellent constituency MP for this bunch regardless of how much I detest New labour. Give all kids the chance to learn in classes of 20 or less and I will change my mind.

ry said...

Not much to get excited about, is it? One per cent up (compared with the Lib Dems' five) at a time when the Government has creating its own "good days to bury bad news" for months on end by creating disaster after disaster faster than newspapers can print headlines to feature them. Must try harder.

Adrian Yalland said...

We know what Cameron broadly stands for surely?

1. He is a liberal urban middle class one-nation conservative, who believes in personal freedom providing it doesn't infringe on the liberties of other people

2.In being fair to those who deserve being fair to, and encouraging those whoi are not fair to be fair (including understanding why so many people feel isolated)

3. Making sure we act more responsibly towards the planet

4. Making sure people are not discriminated against because they have (a) done well for themselves in life, or (b) for reasons beyond their control not done well for themselves out of life

5. Smaller government, where possible

6. Lower taxes, where possible

He is therefore pragmatic, responsive and willing to listen to ideas. He is not ideological, driven by an agenda at the expense of all else, nor too principled to be no good.

He is a good mix of morals and Machiavelli and I reckon the boy will go far!

Still prefer William Hague though!

Allistair Darling's eyebrows said...

A projected 10 seat Tory majority with a 9 point lead in the polls?

This is an outrage - I thought we fixed it so that Labour always wins a majority, even if we don't get any votes at all.

Heads must roll.

eddie said...

Not quite. As RY has said, with the Lib Dems up 5% in this poll, that is going to be the headline news for those of that persuasion.

Plus, as it's an ICM poll, it is hard to doubt the figures. Sure it is fair enough to say it is an isolated poll, which is right statistically. It's always good to see the backup for a consistent trend. But it might just shutup the Tombstone lot. The Tories are clearly onto a winner, which says a lot about the British public - how easy they are convinced and how quickly they forget the past.

The old mantra is as true as ever - government's lose elections.

Praguetory said...

Billy Goat,
Class sizes are rising under Labour and so are the number of illiterate school-leavers - the UK has the second most illiterate population of the 30 OECD countries. Social mobility is falling. I'd trust Willetts ahead of the various anonymongs that Labour has placed in charge of education since 1997. Try again.

Rick said...

Never trust ICM - The Guardian merely wants a "Ditch Blair" message before the Conference Season which is why a purported 75% blame Iraq for terrorism..........which is Guardian logic and fails to explain why Germany has arrested a member of Hizb ut-Tahrir for trying to plant bombs on German trains on 31st July...........or why Lebanese Military Intelligence tipped the Germans about his clan's deep involvement with Terrorist Islam.

ICM has weird methodology and I would not trust this poll which has more to do with promoting Blair's demise than Cameron's arrival

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/ha58b

They haven't posted their August Poll.......but who thinks August is a good month to poll......they would have had to ask David Cameron on his mobile in Corfu.............and everyone else will have been stuck at the airport

Geoffrey G Brooking said...

Incredible stuff.

Pulsar said...

On 40 now-what was our last poll figure?

sheepdip said...

To all those complaining about the lack of Conservative policies, what is the point in coming out with any right now? Let Brown/Blair/Reid or whoever think up their own policies for a change, we can present ours as part of an election campaign. If Dave is on 40% with few policies, he can't lose.

Pulsar said...

sheepdip-as long as he & "flip" Osborne don't come out with any last minute surprises that it's too late to correct!-resulting in UKIP getting their biggest ever vote!!!

bt said...

sheepdip -

Dave isn't on 40%, that's the CP.
In a poll last month the CP were on 39%, but Dave's *personal* level of approval (not included in this latest survey) was only 1% above My Little Toni, languishing down in the 20s.
Doesn't that tell you something?

Vienna Woods said...

Nearly 450,000 people have come to the UK from new EU countries since May 2004, say new government figures announced this morning. Now that's something that Dave should get his teeth into, particularly the idiotic remark by Colin Yeo, a senior lawyer with Immigration Advisory Service charit. He said there was "a very strong economic case to allow people in.People might be complaining that these people are coming in stealing our jobs or something along those lines. I don't see that many people from Britain are really wanting to work as fish filleters, meat-bone breakers, sandwich makers - the kind of low-paid jobs that really are absolutely essential to the economy and employers just aren't able to recruit for." What planet did this idiot fall off. The jobs being murdered by low salary competition from East Europe are in engineering, high tech and management. Has anyone not been listening to the unemployment figures recently.

Go for the throat Dave, if you have the stomach for it! This is a national scandal of mammoth proportions.

antifrank said...

As always, opinion polls should be taken but not inhaled. The interesting story is the 6 month story, which is one of the Conservatives cementing their lead and Labour slowly drifting back. The Lib Dems also seem surprisingly resilient - a reflection of deep dissatisfaction with the Government among left wing voters? If so, I would be quite consoled by that phenomenon if I were in Labour high command. Opinion polls are not the same as general elections, and I would expect the Labour vote to rise as some disaffected Labour voters reach for Polly Toynbee's nosepegs in Labour/Tory marginals. Conversely, David Cameron must work on capturing more of the Orange Book Lib Dems to offset that effect (precisely what he is trying to do, so far as I can tell - look at Adrian Yalland's very perceptive list of what he stands for). But he can't start thinking about Downing Street just yet.

Keir said...

Have to agree with Vienna. Those coming in are doing so because they are leaving behind no economic hope and are being let in by the few who see it as a cost-cutting measure, undercutting the competition so to speak. I'm all for immigration (I'm an immigrant) provided we are in the position to choose who we want based on what we need when we need it, not simply reacting.
What I don't understand is the point that there is "a very strong economic case to allow people in." This is like the Euro. At what stage is it not? When I moved to England from Canada I was enchanted by its 'green and pleasant land'. But are we to sacrifice that just for money? And then what? Just keep letting people in until Britain (half the size of France, same population) is in Japan's position and becomes wealthy but the people have to live in boxes?
Sorry- I'm living in Beijing now and know all about both booming economies and overpopulation...

garypowell said...

Rick
Will you still be indicating David Cameron is an electorial liability when he is resident at number 10?

As a intelligent person you should have worked out by now that their is only one alternative to a Labour government, and thats a Tory one, like it or not.

The Conservative party never got elected by pampering to people who constantly threaten to vote for extream nationalist minority parties. It will not next time either. However DC being possitive saying not to much, and smiling lots and the Conservative party could have a landslide victory.

This is ofcause happens when the governing party become disunited, corrupt, lazy, and run compleatly out of steam. By the next election labour will not have enough steam to make a hot cup of tea, never mind enough un tainted minister to drink it.

toriesarewinning said...

These migrants from other, boring betting blogs have to be kept out; they're lowering the whole blog for the rest of us with all their boring numbers.

Dr.Doom said...

My dearest Vienna, I believe you to be quite legitimate in your concerns of the Eastern influx into this poor land but quite mistaken in your observations.

Firstly, unemployment is rising but not by the influx. second employment is rising also due to some sections acquring second jobs.

Sum total is a growth for the country and GDP.

It therefore follows that an increase in migration is good for UK plc and Britain as a whole.
More tax, NI and a greater flow of money.

An atack on migrants, in ignorance, is therefore racist at the outset.

Britain is gaining strength due to Johnny foreigner.

Mr. Cameron is treading a dangerous path if he attempts to cry foul on GDP alone.He will be demolished by Gordon.

The policy of one in, one out though, is quite reasonable and my guess is that Labour will adopt it just before the GE. alk about timing and Dave the loser.

Doom.

dodonline said...

Iain, You're being unnecessarily pessimistic about this result. True, Electoral Calculus gives the Tories only a 10 seat majority on the ICM result. However, once we get to 40 we are in the region of the tipping point, where a small variation in votes creates a huge change in seats. Increasing the Tory vote by just one per cent to 41%, for example, at the expense of the Liberals gives a thoroughly working majority of 48! Also remember that www.electoralcalculus.co.uk takes no account of regional variation. This is likely to hit the Liberals particularly hard, taking marginal seats away from them in the south without giving them new ones in the north.

Anonymous said...

ICM say 1% think the UK is safer because of Blairite foreign policies.

What has Iain Dale got to crow about? And where are his policies different?

billy said...

Vaguetory

I didn't suggest that things were any better under New Labour; I just don't see Cameron's crew being better.

Anonymous said...

Puzzled by the polls. The Conservatives (aka New Labour) are already in office anyway, so how can there be a choice. The two "main parties" (eg, the Hardcore Neocon New Labour and Liberal Neocon Cameroonies) should simply be billed as one choice. Genuine political parties like Respect, the Libdems, Greens, etc, would be the other choices.

Rick said...

Rick
Will you still be indicating David Cameron is an electorial liability when he is resident at number 10?

As a intelligent person you should have worked out by now that their is only one alternative to a Labour government, and thats a Tory one, like it or not.


I believe it unlikely that Cameron will ever be Prime Minister; and if David doesn't replace him in 2007, nor will he.

Gary I suspect you live in Essex or somewhere southern like that - you really have no idea how little impact the Tories have in the North of England............they are not really a credible option. On that basis they will probably face a Labour/Lib Dem Coalition after the next election.

As for open-door for EU entrants - that is fine but after 16 months they qualify for full benefits. The main thing should be to abolish the Minimum Wage which is being undercut by these Central Europeans - and abolish Tax Credits which are costing £14 billion a year.

You cannot have open labour markets and subsidise low-paid jobs it is economic lunacy. If you want to drive down labour costs you should not set a floor and make up the difference through tax subsidy - it is economic madness.

Open borders for labour require the reduction of the welfare state to the bare minimum so costs can be made flexible. Logically immigration will continue until labour costs equalise across Europe and the current growth in the economy is entirely due to Brown's public spending binge which is coming to a shuddering halt

Rick said...

Rick
Will you still be indicating David Cameron is an electorial liability when he is resident at number 10?

As a intelligent person you should have worked out by now that their is only one alternative to a Labour government, and thats a Tory one, like it or not.


I believe it unlikely that Cameron will ever be Prime Minister; and if David doesn't replace him in 2007, nor will he.

Gary I suspect you live in Essex or somewhere southern like that - you really have no idea how little impact the Tories have in the North of England............they are not really a credible option. On that basis they will probably face a Labour/Lib Dem Coalition after the next election.

As for open-door for EU entrants - that is fine but after 16 months they qualify for full benefits. The main thing should be to abolish the Minimum Wage which is being undercut by these Central Europeans - and abolish Tax Credits which are costing £14 billion a year.

You cannot have open labour markets and subsidise low-paid jobs it is economic lunacy. If you want to drive down labour costs you should not set a floor and make up the difference through tax subsidy - it is economic madness.

Open borders for labour require the reduction of the welfare state to the bare minimum so costs can be made flexible. Logically immigration will continue until labour costs equalise across Europe and the current growth in the economy is entirely due to Brown's public spending binge which is coming to a shuddering halt

Mike said...

It's good to see the Party "on the up" but we do have a long way to go before we are a credible alternative... I mean, how much of that lead is down to Labour's poor performance rather than the Conservatives doing anything great?

Jonathan M Scott said...

"Immigration of Hard-Working Central & Eastern Europeans a National Scandal?" - No! We should be proud that our tolerant country saw an opportunity a few years back to avoid derogations (i.e. opt-out clauses) on free movement of labour from Central & Eastern Europe. Other countries have restricted immigration from C&EE, but our economy has had a huge boost from their arrival.

The Conservative Party's softened tone on immigration is winning us admiration, and we are not going to suddenly 'harden' our tone, because it didn't work in 2001 or 2005. We are taking the right line on immigration, which is to voice some concerns, but generally to recognise its advantages.

The recent wave of immigrants from Central & Eastern Europe has been highly positive and has contributed significantly to the economy. As someone who has spent a lot of time in Hungary and who speaks basic Hungarian, I can back up the assertions that people from these countries are hard-working, enterprising and aspirational - natural conservatives, in fact. See today's excellent articles in the Independent:

(http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article1221080.ece):

"The positive impact of the influx of migrant workers from eastern Europe on the British economy has enabled Gordon Brown to hit his growth targets, according to a new study.

"It suggests that the Chancellor may have missed his key economic goals without the boost from the estimated 600,000 migrants from the eight former Soviet bloc nations who have come to Britain since their home countries joined the European Union two years ago. They now account for about 2 per cent of the UK's 30 million-strong workforce, contributing an estimated £2.5bn a year to the economy."

And read too an outstanding Indy article from Yasmin Alibhai Brown: "God bless the foreigners willing to do our dirty work".

Umbongo said...

Sorry to puncture a few balloons but this is a single poll taken at holiday time. The poll is, almost literally, meaningless. When Dave's New Tories have months of a consistent 10-15 percent lead (as if!) you "might" be able to say that it looks like the Conservatives have a chance of forming the next government. Until then, dream on.

C4' said...

Over the years evidence suggests that opinion polls almost always overestimate Labour's support, underestimated Tory support and support for the Lib Dems being all over the place.

In real terms, Tory support maybe 1% than that recorded in this recent poll.

Praguetory said...

Billy - Sorry to be a bit direct and I hear what you're saying but I feel that(like a fair proportion of the UK) you're swallowing Labour's latest line of attack/defence. Labour agree with me and you that they are utterly hopeless (publicly acknowldeging that week-in-week-out). But I'm sick of the line Campbell, Blair et al are pushing of late - namely that all politicians are crap and that the other lot will be just as bad, but at least Labour's heart is in the right place. You might think that I'm looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I know that we can do better than this.