It can't surely be too much longer before Tony Blair carries out his long awaited reshuffle. I think this could be quite a wide-ranging shift-around, with one very unexpected high profile casualty. This senior Minister is rumoured to want to go voluntarily. I may well be wrong but I believe this could be Jack Straw. It seems that his frequent trips to Uganda may have finally taken their toll. Blair's got to make room for at least four new entrants who will expect to stay on after the Dour One takes over and preserve what's left of the Blair legacy. My little munchkin Hazel Blears has been knocking at the Cabinet door for some time. I wouldn't be at all surprised if she were joined by another mate of mine, Tony McNulty, who doubles as New Labour's very own Norman Tebbit. Blair is said to want to promote more women to the Cabinet, and if I'm right that Beckett and Armstrong are for the chop, he'll need to. 
I can't bring myself to believe he would really promote either Jackie Smith or Beverley Hughes, but he might well go for the fragrant Caroline Flint. I was at university with her. She used to run the 'Wimmins' Group. She dressed like a sack of potatoes. Suffice to say she could now be mistaken for Ms Chanel No 5. And she's done a good job in the various junior portfolios she's held. What's more she's good on TV and unlike most of the New Labour robots has a good sense of humour. I remember debating VAT on tampons with her at university. Those were the days. But I digress. Angela Smith is another of the '97 intake who's proved herself, although she might have to settle for a sideways move this time. If Blair wants to promote a younger MP, James Purnell would fit the bill. He's had the unenviable task of selling the 24 hour drinking proposals but has made a reasonably good fist of it. I don't expect Ed Balls to get a huge promotion, but he'll no doubt be given something junior. Quite unjustifiably, in my view as he is absolutely dire on the media.
HOT TIPS FOR THE SACKHilary Armstrong
Margaret Beckett
Ian McCartney
MOVING TO DIFFERENT JOBS
Alistair Darling
Geoff Hoon (to Chief Whip)
Charles Clarke (possibly)
Peter Hain
Ruth Kelly (or possibly sacked altogether)
Hilary Benn
David Miliband (Education or Home Office)
REMAINING IN THEIR CURRENT POSTS
John Prescott
Gordon Brown
Dr John Reid
Patricia Hewitt
Tessa Jowell
Baroness Scotland
Charlie Falconer (outside tip for Home Secretary)
John Hutton
Des Browne
Alan Johnson (outside tip for Education)Baroness Amos
PROMOTED TO THE CABINET
Hazel Blears
Tony McNulty
Caroline Flint
James Purnell
I guess that along with all the lobby journalists who have made predictions I'll end up with egg on my face too. But that's half the fun of it, isn't it?
10 comments:
Beckett would deserve to stay more than the useless Jowell.
What about Douglas Alexander moving to another role? And Yvette Cooper? I mean something to please Brown.
I demand that you promote Ruth Kelly.
To the sacking list, that is. But I can't even bring myself to consider her in the same paragraph as the words "hot" and "sack"
I assume you don't mean "Ugandan discussions" in the Private Eye sense...
I'm surprised at your warm regard for Caroline Flint. I've always sensed something coarse and hard about her. Have you noticed her habit of deflecting difficult questions by retreating into jargon. Her favourite phrase is; "Well of course, there are issues around this...."
Yes, Uganda is an odd example to use unless...
Why on earth have you got John Reid staying where he is? One of the rules of politics is that Reid gets a new job in every reshuffle. I wonder what he does wherever he goes that causes this phenomenon?
I'd heard Margaret Beckett had always planned to step down from the Cabinet after seeing through the UK's EU Presidency (which was quite focussed on Defra related matters).
I agree absolutely about Balls, I’m sure he’s very clever but he has so far proven himself totally incapable of projecting himself in the media (broadcast or print!) or in the House (from what I hear)… “that said” I fully expect him to be over promoted as soon as Brown assumes the mantle.
But to look at the labour benches, what real “stars” are there? There are clever, capable MPs to be sure (Byrne, Cooper, Alexander, Hutton, Cooper and the Milibands) but nothing exceptional and the same is true of the cabinet itself (Clark, Hewitt, Straw etc…) indeed the cabinet beyond perhaps Brown, Benn and Johnson seems a bastion of mediocrity.
This would seem to be in sharp contrast to the Conservative benches, there are a number of newer MPs who are both capable and credible (Vaizey, Gove, Herbert, Burrowes, Afriyie etc…) and have the potential to become really impressive parliamentarians and again in contrast to Labour this would seem to also be the case with the shadow cabinet itself with capable, articulate figures such as Hague, Osborne, Davis, Fox and Willets all of whom at very least match and more often than not better their opposite numbers.
“jake-the-peg” makes a good point about Benn, if Straw wants to jump (either out of the cabinet all together or just to a more junior post) then Benn (who’s standing seems pretty high within both Labour’s parliamentary delegation and the broader membership) where he promoted could be a credible challenger for the leadership where Blair to depart in 2007/08.
Benn would also have the potential to be a better leader for Labour than Brown IMHO, yet I think it highly unlikely that anything will upset the Brownite quest for the leadership when Blair departs.
I think Blair will clear the party management decks: Geoff Hoon, Ian McCartney and Hilary Armstrong get retired to the back benches. Clarke becomes Leader of the House, Benn goes to the Home Office and Kelly to International Development. Miliband becomes Education Secretary; he looks like a duffer for selling Blair's education programme - too intellectual, too middle class - but having been go-between for Prescott and Kinnock in their opposition to the White Paper makes him the perfect person to hammer out a compromise.
Douglas Alexander takes over reform of local government from Miliband. Accomplished campaigner Fraser Kemp replaces McCartney, and Armstrong is replaced by someone from the old school, someone who can talk to the rebels, either Alun Michael or Richard Caborn. David Hanson, Blair's former PPS, takes the vacant role of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancs. and head of the Cabinet Office.
I like the look of some of Gregg's predictions. Benn Home Secretary, Miliband Education, Kelly DfID all make sense. Not sure about Fraser Kemp as party chairman - think he might get Deputy Chief Whip though. Dick Caborn as Chief Whip would be a masterstroke. He is very much Prescott's man and if that comes off I would suspect it would be some sort of pay-off for the U-turn on school reform.
Doug Alexander will not get the Local Government job for the simple reason that it's about English and Welsh local government and he's a Scot. I'd say he'd be much more likely to get Party Chairman. And Hazel Blears, not Hanson, will get the Cabinet Office job.
Margaret Beckett will not leave the Cabinet unless it's of her own volition. Blair rates her extremely highly as one of his safest pairs of hands and ablest (ie most on-message) communicators and she is also extremely close to Brown. My suspicion is that she would want to stay around for the handover, but I could be wrong.
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