Monday, June 01, 2009

Labour Support in Meltdown

I've just seen the IPSOS MORI poll which shows the Conservatives on 40% (-1), Lib Dems on 18% (-4) and Labour ... wait for it... on 18% (-10). The worst Michael Foot ever polled was 23.5%.

This 'other' category breaks down as follows:• Scottish/Welsh national: 4%• Greens: 6%• UKIP: 7%• BNP: 4%• Other: 3%

Only 18% (compared to 23% last month) are satisfied with the way the Government is running the country, and more than three-quarters (77%, vs. 70% last month) are dissatisfied. Taking the net rating (the per cent satisfied minus dissatisfied) puts the Government on -59, which ties for the month of July 2008 for Government's worst rating since August 1996.

The fall in Labour support is unprecedented only a few days ahead of important elections. Normally, support for the governing party consolidates during an election campaign.

The UKIP figure of 7% will disappoint them greatly. Overall, I think this poll significantly underestimates their support, but I hope I am wrong!

UPDATE: It should be noted that this poll relates to how people will vote in a general election, rather than a European election.


Tim Worstall said...

Erm, Iain, that's for a General Election, not a Euro election.

UKIP support for the euros, is, depending upon who you believe and their methods, 17-19%.

Tim Worstall
UKIP press office.

Anonymous said...

from out here in the sticks one gets the impression that Labour have reluctantly resigned themselves to a thrashing. That said, I am drowning in Liberal and UKIP leaflets, there is no Conservative or Labour presence in Hinckley East Midlands. On holiday perhaps?!

trevorsden said...

The Greens at 8(?)% are interesting. Benefiting from the Lumley factor? Tories need to preen their green credentials and court her.

I have said elsewhere that Labour are on the edge of an electoral black hole were the laws of political physics break down.

Anyone with the remotest interest in these things needs to retire to a darkened room with a wet towel over their heads and take a lie down.

Michael Heaver said...

Iain, this is a General Election poll surely? In which case 7% for UKIP is unprecedented and can clearly be built upon after success on Sunday.

Silent Hunter said...

Bye Bye Labour - don't let the door smack you in the backside on your way out.

(sotto voce)

Bunch of venal crooks!

Anonymous said...

Surely the UKIP figure is low because this is for a general election not the Europeans.

Thomas Rossetti said...

Does anyone else ever get confused with all these polls showing different numbers? In one of them, the UKIP are in 2nd place and are set to trounce Labour, in another they're only getting 7%. In one poll the BNP look set to get a seat, in another they're doing dreadfully.

A pollster once phoned me up to ask which party I was planning to vote for. I lied on the grounds that it was no-one else's business. Do other people do the same, I wonder.

Whatever these polls show, the results on June 4th/5th can't help but be interesting!

Thomas Rossetti said...

Thank you, Tim Worstall. That explains it!

Mike H said...

Saw this comment on PB:-

"It must be remembered that MORI have a very strict filter on their headline figures and ONLY include those who are 100% certain to vote."

Anti U S of Europe said...

Banner Heading for I.Dale Esq.
Euro Elections UKIP (2.5 Million ex Tories)+ all the disenchanted other voters some 60%
All of the above will vote Tory in County Elections, and probably all of the above + labour supporters who would have voted for a monkey if it wore a RED rosette.(The analogy between the monkey in Hartlepool and Mandleson must be avoided by gleeful Conservatives !) Lets preserve our dignity

Brian Tomkinson said...

Nice try, Iain, but I think you will be disappointed greatly when you see the size of the UKIP vote in the EU elections on Thursday.

Alex said...

The sad thing is that if LD's and Labour both get 18% of the vote, Labour will get 150 seats compared to the LD's 50 or so.

The Lib Dems would have to get about 6% higher percentage of the vote to push Labour into 3rd place in the HoC.

javelin said...

If Clegg wants to finish off Labour he needs to court the Unions. Follow the money. Will Labour be able to run an election campaign if their money supply dried up. I know Cleggs politics are not naturally based on unions, but ask your self (1) what have Labour done for the Unions and (2) could Clegg bring the unions into the center ground?

Every coin has two sides. So he could for example champion freedom in the form of work life balance or pro-EU. Clegg shouldn't be negotiating with McStalin but the union leaders and their pay packets. Labour only exists because of the union funds. Labour private donations are minimal. Clegg could kill off the Labour Party.

Scott said...

Excellent. This is after a glut of negative press about Tory expense fiddlers as well, remember.

Hopefully, now that the Telegraph has decided to renew its focus on Labour ministers, the next set of polls will be even more devastating for them.

Fausty said...

The electoral map at Electoral Calculus is a pretty blue.

Brown's tactics will get mighty ugly. :)

Plato said...

Thought history nerds would appreciate this little step back in time to 1997...

BBC Election 97The lowest poll rating by a governing party was 18.5% in Jan 95

DMC said...


I really wont take much notice of this poll.

There are a few reasons why?

Remember who Labour has as there ad agency, S and S who are masters are picking apart the opposition at election time.

There is normally a swing back to the government in election times and i dont know this seems to me to be more like 1992 than 1997.

Cameron i am still predicting will loose the next election and i am saying this as somebody who thinks Brown is a huge disappointment as PM.

Lola said...

Jeez. If true what a wonderful success McMental has been in destroying socialism. He deserves a real pat on the back for doing something so useful. Mind you, it was probably unintentional as nigh on 100% of the time he hasn't a fucking clue WHAT he's doing.

Sean Haffey said...

Labour support collapsing? It couldn't happen to nicer people.

Andy JS said...

This is not a Euro election poll, it's a Westminster poll.

Martin said...

but don't expect the BBC to report it. They only report GOOD NEWS for McSnot.

Anonymous said...

lol - Chip, you chump - you've done it again. Wrong elections you berk.

Anyway, what's most shocking is that 18% STILL support Labour. Now that really is surprising.

Liam said...

Euros or General, the figure for Labour is still horrific for a party in Government.

I don't want to fall for the trick of believing terrible spin in the run up to bad results, but this surely has to be the end for the Party, the Prime Minster, and this Parliament.

An election must be called.

SHB said...

In the main not that surprising really, in simple terms;

Labour in meltdown as its now finally dawned on the floating voters and those who thought it was trendy to vote Labour, that after 12 years this bunch have pretty much wrecked the country. Vote now made up of the hardcore ideological believers.

Conservative vote boosted by disaffected voters - see above and probably some firming of the core vote that have lost interest over the last few years. Few Eurosceptics moving to UKIP.

UKIP vote limited by the fact that it would probably be a good idea to leave the EU, but the lack of credibility in terms of the rest of their agenda means they attract only people obsessed with leaving the EU.

Scottish/Welsh nationals - possibily made up of ex Labour.

Greens - bunch of scaremongering eco-mentalists. (Sorry JL)

BNP - twats, but they are only there because there hasn't been a grown up debate on immigration as every time its been mentioned over the last 12 years the Labour spin machine labels the instigator a racist.

Lib Dems - Surprised at this as I would have thought that Cable on his own is credible enough to attract some voters.

Cameron could torpedo the UKIP vote if he wanted to by coming out and clearly stating that whatever happens with the Constitution, sorry Lisbon Treaty, there will be a referendum. Pretty convinced the UK answer would be NO and we can revert to trade agreements and re-building our comeptitive position which has been continually eroded by years of pointless interfering EU legislation.

trevorsden said...

Indeed MikeH.

This 100% weighting means that MORI is subject to more swings than other polls which mainly 'weight' the certainty to vote by a fraction.
This weighting will perhaps boost the flagging parties somewhat. Given that this is quite close to the actual vote then the MORI methodology might not be so far out.

The point is though that virtually ALL pollers weight by some certainty to vote factor. And in this case Labours vote has plummeted by 10% since this pollster, MORI, did its last poll.

acadman said...

What the polls show at the moment is the extreme volatility of the electorate - we are in a state of flux where old tribal loyalties are breaking down.

I am not a great fan of Peter "modern life is rubbish' Hitchens generally but perhaps he has a point when he says that the major parties are simply hollow shells that are now doomed.

jbw said...

Thomas Rossetti said...

"A pollster once phoned me up to ask which party I was planning to vote for. I lied on the grounds that it was no-one else's business. Do other people do the same, I wonder."

Absolutely, keep the buggers guessing I say.

Andrew K said...

And to think that for all these years Meltdown has been a safe LD seat.

disillusioned Dale blog reader said...

When UKIP win the next General Election, will they fill in the Channel Tunnel and make us an island again?

Anonymous said...

>The UKIP figure of 7% will disappoint them greatly. Overall, I think this poll significantly underestimates their support, but I hope I am wrong!

Hadn't you better ask the Conservative PArty to expel you, like that nice young student you were so cross with for taling up UKIP?

A. Labour Supporter said...

Hello? Is there anybody there?

Tom said...

I think it's a little unfair to compare this poll to really old ones like Michael Foot's 23%. The methodology was less sophisticated back then and until quite recently it's always tended to be far more generous to the Labour side. Not to knock this historic figure mind...

Polly Toynbee's Hairdresser said...

Tories stuck on 40% again, this must be uncharted political territory.

The ruling party is unpopular, out of touch, and dying on it's feet in key geographical areas, yet there is scant support for the main opposition party.

The tories are paying the price for Cameron's lack of big politics and ideas.
Just seeking to neutralise the vote
destroying McDoom looks very weak now.

Having said that, long may Labour's demise continue.
Would any of the political pygmies in the Cabinet truly want to take over the party at the moment?

Jonathan Cook said...

I'm not trying to be lurid or overly pleased with Labour's demise, but I'm surprised that Labour even poll 18%.

All things considered: Iraq , Gordon's destruction of our nations finances, Smeargate, Gurkhas, pensions destroyed, double the annual tax bill with little discernible benefit on the ground, 10p tax swindle and no vision for government etc..

Given that little list (and the myriad of other issues) - how on earth do Labour even attract 18% of the population?!

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Who would you invite into your home?

Certainly not Gordon Brown.

It is really as simple as that to the majority of voters, except for all the people who still inexplicably vote Labour, but, imagine them like those call centre people who endlessly repeat their script; "I'm a Labour voter".

Which is a good argument for making voters take some kind of test.

Simon said...

I don't know about others but I haven't met anyone recently who says they're going to vote for any of the main parties. It's all minor parties or can't be bothered. That certainly doesn't reflect in any of the polls. Maybe the people I meet simply aren't typical but they seem pretty normal to me.

Neil Mac said...

I have seen our Glorious Leader being interviewed on various channels today, squirming his way out of a general election. The slimy sod just doesn't get it that he HAS to go.

Apparantly, no-one wants an election until he has single handedly "sorted out the system" (now there's an overworn phrase) and "got our economy back on track".

What planet is this guy on ?

Iain, are we right in hearing that senior labour figures are trying to persuade Pa Broon to hand the keys back ?

Stepney said...

I'd counsel care with Ms Lumley. The people's champion without a question and her action over the Gurkhas was uplifiting and morally sound. A true patriot and a wonderful woman.

Her other credentials involve considerable bunny-hugging though. Let the Greens welcome her with henna stained hands and a cup of weird nettle tea.

Best off there methinks.

Dick the Prick said...

It's mental - absolutely mental.

The Lakelander said...


If you want some advice on how to fiddle your tax return...

take some advice from an expert

Anonymous said...

Sadly your right as we are about to discover on Thursday.Sunday should be interesting.

Tin Hatter Emigrant said...

Anon 5.50pm

LibDems have dominated local politics in Hinckley over the past decade and the local LibDems are by far the most professional canvassers of the main parties locally with the biggest member base and the local council is presently LibDem controlled so with having the majority of sitting Councillors that's bound to help and the Conservatives are on the back foot locally

As regards Labour - they have never really registered even in the high water days of 1997 so it's hardly surprising that things being as they are that you won't see much canvassing - they know they have no chance of winning any seats locally or nationally

Incidentally, tongue in cheek but I think you know that if you wrote to the "Hinckley Times" Letters Page referring to Hinckley as being"in the sticks" you'd probably not get very far up Castle Street before being mobbed by irate "tin hatters" who regard their town with pride and as far as they are concerned very much "not in the sticks" Awright me duck ?

Flemingcrag said...

I can give no mark of respectability to this latest polling survey. There has to be some serious flaw in their sampling or tabulation. I mean where on Earth, never mind these small Isles, could you possibly drum up 18 in every 100 who would admit to still being supporters of New Labour.
I am more inclined to still hang my sock up for Santa.

trevorsden said...

Be warned ---- there is a Comres poll out tonight which puts Tories on 30 and Labour on 22 and Others on 30. !!

Mike Smithson on PB says its due to a change in the 'past vote' weightings in labours favour. I confess to not understanding what this means but basically it is a slanted poll (done for the Indy - so no surprises??)

The recent MORI being discussed here has a constant 'weighting'.

I cannot see how changing a methodology can do a poll and its reputation any good.

Maybe others can discuss. But all polls need to be treated with a health warning and their validity must be called into question when 2 polls at the same time can be so far apart.

No doubt the headline writers and BBC will not look as far as this and call it badly for the Tories

tankus said...

if mi6 REALLY care for the queen and country.......

...should there be a grassy knoll moment ?

has it come to this ?

wolfie said...

I think we need Gordon to go on the telly twice more before Thursday and tell us that he is not standing dow as he has the answers to all our problems, only he knows how to fix it and he has a committee that will clean up all the expenses scandals.

If he does this I'm sure he can get the Labour vote down to about 5% Go on Gordon write your name in the history books, become the most famous and talked about politician in the Labour movement of all time. Wipeout

Mirtha Tidville said...

and the best bit is that these figures were obtained just before the Liebour Chancellor had to say sorry for being caught with his hand in the till!!!...Mad Hattie being grilled by Paxo on newsnight tonight.....unmissable now

Simon Lewis said...

Still a year to go before the general election. Things can change..

Simon Lewis said...

I wonder if all those calling for Brown to go were calling for Major to go in the run up to 1997. I bet you didn't.

Look what happened in that election.

The Grim Reaper said...

Has anyone else heard the rumour about hundreds of new laser printers and Nokia mobile phones being delivered to Downing Street recently?

Still, at least Gordon hasn't smashed up his rocking horse yet. Then we'll know the game is up.

trevorsden said...

Mike Smithson on PB says -

"The difference between ComRes’s weightings tonight and the standard approach of ICM is to inflate the Labour headline figures and to deflate the Tory ones. My guess is that if ICM’s weightings had been applied then the CON-LAB margin would have been fifteen percent or more."

This comment moderation is a real bore!

Anonymous said...

The low BNP percentages don't stack up. They'll get between 8 and 10%.

The Stirrer(or even ex Tory said...

Iain whilst you are idling your time away on things like family committments ect. the lack of a current BLOG may drive your posters to view the more mad BLOG SITES such as GUIDO (order-order} where it is difficult to read because of all the illeducated. ungrammatical youths who spent most of their time texting each other in some form of words unknown to man are present. I have decided that the voting age is raised to twenty five (25) and a minimum IQ test be imposed before a voting paper is issued(21 Years for females) NOW WAIT FOR THE DELUGE, I love stirring it up but there is not a lot to look forward until the 5th June.

subrosa said...

Thank you for mentioning the SNP Iain. I see your 'session' with our Lesley Riddoch has left a lasting impression :)

jojoko said...

Everyone of the political parties is bent, venal, polluted, crooked and not to be trusted. The only reason to vote is to send a message so that'll be UKIP for me who, having no power, can do the least damage.

VotR said...

I'm hoping people don't forget about the events of past weeks anytime soon.

If the expenses scandal hadn't have happened, Labour would not have told the voters about what was really going on, and have seemed to have gone out of their way to make sure people were not going to know.

The far left spin machine would be on overdrive, instead it is now in freefall and hellbent on damage control. Fat chance.

But because they went out of their way to NOT be transparent, I hope voters do not forget just how trustworthy Labour actually are, i.e. Not At All. Please, tell them so on the 4th, good folk, if you will it. It may not be a general election, but since the powers that be won't give us one, the 4th of June will make do for a good shout.

V for Vindication.

raincoatoptimism said...

jojoko, have your protest vote, but if you don't trust experienced politicians, why would you trust the inexperienced political babies (like Farage) to try anything different. For all the wrongdoings MP's from the Big Three have done, at least they turn up and entertain the fact they care, Nigel Farage and his (no less scandalous) crew would prefer not to turn up to work, and be proud of it (and what are the odds, it works in their favour).

Lets hope Iain Dale's figures are closer to the truth than Tim Worstall's , or else we voters are all nuts too (well, we kind of knew this, didn't we).

Thatsnews said...

Fun at the expense of Darling

Chris Paul said...

As Tim Worstall says ... you're kind of comparing apples and oranges, yet the respondents are also kind of confused.

Polls over the last few weeks have been quite wild whether on GE intentions or Europe.

Dare I suggest that with a dozen to 15 choices instead of the usual four or five the samples ought to be trebled in size ... but they have not been.

And how many of those polled are refusing to express their preference of are still saying don't know? That will perhaps be higher than in the irrelevant Michael Foot's day?

Though back to Tim ... I think UKIP are as low as 10% in some Euro polls.

It's all going to be down to turn out and perhaps regional concentrations too.

Chris Paul said...

Javelin - Clegg and Unions? Tossery!!

Anonymous said...

Well Gorgon has his place in history after all.

Anonymous said...

An ode to Brown


neil craig said...

If 18% are satisfied with how Labour are running the economy & 18% are going to vote Labour this looks like the long prophesied core Labour vote who will mever vote for any other party at least until a Marxist party has a chance.

A recent Times poll showed that 7% of people wanted government to increase spending to get out of the recession despite it having passed 50% of GNP - I have reason to believe that this represents about 6% (maybe 10% in Scotland) of the population who want the state brought up to about Soviet levels of control but, however noisy, are completly off the normal curve pf popular opinion (also sanity) & never can or should be placated.

Anonymous said...

Tin Hatter,

Hinckley, for someone from London is very much in the sticks. Personally I'm not sure that just having pride in a town and Liberal politics demonstrate much commitment to improve either.

I appreciate your observations though.