Michael Portillo made an interesting point on THIS WEEK. The G20 was supposed, according to our Prime Minister, to herald a new Bretton Woods and a new world stimulus package. It achieved neither.
Triumph, anyone?
I do think the whole thing has been a bit of a PR triumph for Gordon Brown. But I do wonder when people actually analyse what was agreed, they may find it doesn't quite live up to the billing. A bit like all these initiatives which Gordon Brown announced in the autumn, but which haven't yet saved a single job or rescued anyone from a repossession. It's all in the small print. Expect the weekend papers to unravel it.
34 comments:
Already a lot of analysis has appeared, and I have blogged on this myself and linked to some good articles from various sources, in as balanced (but no-nonsense) a way as I could.
Yes, the fine print detail will undoubtedly reveal more; but in the meantime we are able to suss out much of what has emerged, and I doubt that the detail will result in an assessment all that different from what has already emerged.
The small print is there is very little substance:
http://alexmasterley.blogspot.com/2009/04/and-this-is-going-to-get-us-out-of.html
No doubt it will take Conservative MP's a few days to realise this just like it takes them a few days to work out what is really in he budget. Ian Martin at the Telegraph has most of it sussed.
Fraser Nelson has had a good go at it but failed to spot thet the trade stimulus (export credit schemes) is just a confirmation that the G20 countries won't pull out of a system that has been in place for decades (ECGD, Coface, Exim), and is not new money, but very, very old money.
And there is no fiscal stimulus of the sort Brown was looking for.
You'll like what The Sun has done for tomorrow's front page, Iain. They've done a mock-up where Gordon Brown is now Dr Evil from the Austin Powers movies. Disturbing thing is, the mock-up is slightly more convincing than the real thing...
Burning Our Money has done a plain English analysis to which I've link from a post I've just published.
Craig Murray has a post also with his view.
Ooops sorry John I've just noticed you've linked to Wat Tyler. Auch another mention won't do him any harm.
So all our wonderful TV journalists were just wowed and cheered Brown to the rooftops without any idea what he had just said?
That's a pretty poor reflection on them. Late on the 10 O'clock news Nick Robinson did admit that it was maybe like: A BROWN budget speech, and we should really look at the detail...
No sh*t! 10p anyone?
I Nick Robinson being balckmailed by Brown/Mandy?
Is Nick Robinson being blackmailed by Brown/Mandy?
I can think of no other reason for his woefully pro-NuLab comments. Especially when he is trying to be "first-responder" to new news, when he is clearly hoping the rest of the lobby will join him, sheep-like, in his love for our dear leader. (Not to say extremely expensive leader).
Oh well, so many BBC sell-outs, so few lamp-posts.
Judge Labour by what they do not what they say.
Mandelson admitted that the UK might have to go cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout(order-order), Mandelson plays an important role in government BUT he wasnt elected by anyone, why is it thought acceptable that someone like him gets to govern the nation and control its destiny when he hasnt even stood for election?
It doesnt seem democratic does it? but then again Mandelson would lose the safest labour seat if he stood for election.
A thrice disgraced common thief and crooked liar worms his way back into government without being elected, thats the newlabour way isnt it?
The Tories seem unable or unwilling to go on the offensive, they seem sheepish and weak, they come across as lazy and insecure.
The BBC has played a huge role in making the Tories appear this way but the fact is that the new Tories appear to lack fire and vision, they seem to lack that agressive get up and go energy and there are plenty of other media platforms to get their message across, whenever I see or hear a Tory front bencher speak I am reminded of a wishy washy hand wringing social worker with something to hide.
Brown has had the field to himself and has been allowed to set the agenda, the G20 was in effect a pre election campaign.
Are the Tories trying to lose the next election? they are certainly going about it the right way!
Having suffered 2 minutes of BBC and Sky news at 10 pm, I switched to Fox News, where the whole deal was being torn to shreds by Glenn Beck and his guest, the head of the Ayn Rand Fndn.
Sooo refreshing.
Alan Douglas
Iain, negativity breeds negativity.
Give it a chance. I'm not a fan of Gordon Brown but this isnt just about him. Credit due where credit is due. He did a good job as host.
What's the point in continuing to talk down a recovery? Who will it help?
It is a PR triumph but I honestly think the voters are wise to that now. I doubt very much whether it will affect Brown's long term prognosis.
I would normally rush to agree with this Iain, but I think the conference has heralded a change in direction, not because of Brown (who may benefit in the afterglow) but because of Obama. His statements about Russia, China, climate change and general policy are strong, new and different to the last two US administrations and that is important.
I agree though that none of this can be laid directly at Brown's door - it's just that he will benefit, at least to some extent.
"a bit of a PR triumph for Gordon Brown."
poor old Iain how that must of hurt to even think let alone say that.
Oh! god what if Gordon's poll ratings go up.......
ha ha ha
Isn't the cliche about UK Chancellors' Budgets somewthing along the lines of 'the ones that are received the most warmly on the day turn out to be the ones that are the most disastrous in the long term'?
I think that may apply here too. Failed to do anything significant about toxic assets - it's like leaving a significant portion of a malignant tumour in a body & hoping that it'll go away by itself (sorry for the slightly crass imagery).
I think overall its been a good G20 summit for brown. He's shown why he should be PM during this difficult time. I do think he'll get another brown bounce in the polls but much less than before.
Ofcourse this is significant, ofcourse it is - however, there is no point at which Labour can win the next election - none.
Therefore, sod the detail, sod the facts - i'm going tabloid - I want people to be fooled, to have a sprinkling of Hollywood, to have Brenda do her tang.
We're 13-14 months away, unemployment is gonna get worse before it gets better. In no way am I blaming the media but the narrative has to change - you can't kick someone in the head for 14 months and not feel like a complete scumbag.
Let's take this bounce and take time off - the Euro's and Locals are important but only to dyed in the wool or employees - I care about people and if they can be fooled into a brighter level of spirits than they are now - brilliant, absolutely brilliant.
Why should ordinary people be made so marose by the utter ineptitude of politicians, regulators, bankers, hedgies, MSM dinosaurs and crappy public servants? Let them have their summer and go about their lives. It's just becoming cruel.
When will people wise up.
EVERY budget, EVERY announcement, ever made by Brown has never delivered! It is that simple.
A PR triumph? Goodness knows do you all believe the BBC? Just recall Blair and Gleneagles..That was a Triumph! err No actually!
Geldoff congratulated Blair and the others after Gleneagles, but since has said they said the words but did not DO anything!
It is not a case of talking down a recovery. But when people are losing their jobs daily nobody can talk abiout any recovery for quite a long time.
Negativity it is not. It is, quite simply, Realism.
Brown is a phoney and people should wise up.
The only true statement so far is the poor delivery by the tories. Cameron has not got any idea of getting in there and roughing it up. Goodness he has had so many open doors to kick wide open, but nothing.
He is riding high in the opinion polls because of the Labour Party NOT because of the Tory party and that is quite dangerous.
the anger out in the real world, towards politicians, could quite easily be visited upon the Tories as well as Labour.
It is almost past time for Cameron to get real.
May I suggest that you all visit Coffee House and read Fraser Nelson's brilliant analysis on
'BROWNS ILLUSORY G20 DEAL'
@ Canvas
Truly gullible.
"I'm not a fan of Gordon Brown but this isnt just about him. Credit due where credit is due. He did a good job as host."
Wow! So he's a 'good host'? How is he as a Prime Minister?
"What's the point in continuing to talk down a recovery?"
You see any signs of a real recovery - apart from a market bounce? And what do you mean by 'talk down'? These professional snake-oil pillocks have been doing far too much in the way of 'talking up' their own 'achievements'. The reality is entirely different.
"Give it a chance"
OK - how long have we got before further disaster and we have to go to the IMF to be bailed out? A year, a decade, a couple of months or is it a fortnight?
What you're really suggesting is that we should all simply shut up until 'things get better' - or maybe until the bus falls off the cliff. That's been the whole problem right from the outset - people have, with some notable exceptions, just remained mute.
Censorship is no substitute for decisive action. If these 'politicians' had spent less time trying to manipulate perceptions and rather more time in sorting the practical issues we would not now be swimming in the unremitting sewage of their failure.
A classic GB announcement - all old money, hot air and spin. Lauded to the skies by the Beeb and the gullible media, but proves to be totally useless practically, and may do more harm than good.
Has anyone asked how this G20 summit has helped us here in the UK one iota? As far as I can see the only thing in our favour is that the IMF now has more money, so when we go cap in hand to them there may be something there to help us.
Alan Douglas said... “I switched to Faux News, where the whole deal was being torn to shreds...”
Hahahaha.
Does the pope shit in the woods?
Thanks Iain , did you see the BBC coverage . They seem to think this is like a firm when everyhting gets solved by putting on a show
WE can do it right here !
Yaaaaah !
I think you are right , give it a few days
You're right, judging by last nights coverage G20 was a PR success but, for the life of me, I just don't understand why.
If we cut out double counting and the re-statement of existing commitments there is not a penny of new cash pledged by any country for the Prime Mentalist’s much heralded fiscal stimulus. In fact the only extra funds are $250bn of synthetic money in the form of SDR’s for the IMF. BTW, guess who will be queuing up for some of that? Did anyone see the unelected Minister for Business’s slippery performance on Newsnight last night?
Oh, there are some disingenuous comments on naming and shaming tax havens (the OECD already do this), global regulation (non-specific therefore meaningless), trade barriers (just wait until the G20-ers all get home) which taken together look less impressive than Gleneagles - and we all know how successful that was.
Just possibly Brown’s BBC fan club have begun to see that the Emperor hasn’t a stitch on; Nick Robinson dropped a hint last night and Humphrey’s was pretty merciless with Darling on R4 this morning. We’re all used to Brown’s love of spin; but this isn’t gilding the lily, this isn’t overstatement, this isn’t malfeasance, it’s plain lying.
I also watched the Ayn Rand bit on Fox, just for fun. Basically the guy was saying that the best way forward was to allow all institutions and economies that couldn't cope to collapse completely, and without help. So presumably, global starvation or mass-epidemics would both be fine with him, so long as the hedge fund's assets are protected.
I'm sure Fox exists to confuse a lot of fairly gullible people, but the real message of the ultra-right could not have been plainer and I would have thought it would put even a lot of Fox viewers off.
I agree with a lot of your analysis Perry, but do you not think that tone matters as much as anything? Obama sets a different tone and that alone seems to have cheered up the markets and I think long-term will make a big difference.
Not sure if Britain will go to the IMF, but totally agree about Mandelson's slimy performances of late - the man has no shame and plainly thinks that all who listen to him are easily gulled.
That said, don't Tories support his Post Office privatisation? Which is actually just a sneaky way to end any possible competition in UK postal services by effectively merging the two biggest players, TNT and Royal Mail?
http://iznewmania.blogspot.com/
Plug plug
I try not to be a cynic, I really do....
... but was it a total coincidence that the US relaxation of mark-to-market accounting rules was announced yesterday - thus ensuring a strong rally in bank shares (and therefore stock markets) at the same that Brown was lauding the G20 Trillion gazillion saning of the world?
Yes, quite the PR triumph
Interesting for Alistair Campbell to say on his blog "What recent weeks and months have shown is that the real stuff of politics is substance and policy, not style and image."
What was the G20 if not an attempt by Gordon Brown to show off some style and image? It hasn't achieved anything of note (talk of extra regulation because apparently we don't have enough of that in our lives, and setting the ground for the IMF to have enough funds to bail-out a defaulting Britain). If the G20 wasn't about style and image, then why all the grandstanding with Obama? Brown ensured that he was seen with the president as often as possible throughout the summit, as though he might be able to acquire a semblance of ability by breathing in Obama's fragrance.
He's still a useless, tantrum throwing, nail-chewing moron. He just happens to have hosted a get together where, by the way, he didn't get anything he went in asking for.
History will show that Brown's G20 deal is illusory.
Read Fraser Nelson in the Spectator today http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3509801/browns-illusory-g20-deal.thtml and
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/04/02/g20_ends_in_a_giant_con
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5096801/G20-Summit-This-grand-plan-will-not-shorten-our-dole-queue.html
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/2009/04/funny-money.html
So its yet another of Gordon Brown's cunning budgets that falls apart once the small print is examined.
Brown's downfall will be all the more spectacular for his hubris.
I have to say that I am disappointed with the Tory response to Brown's acts of hubris. I had thought maybe they are keeping their powder dry meantime before an election but now I'm not so sure. I feel they are sadly lacking in ruthlessness and the killer instinct when it comes to Brown. For example they should be forensically dissecting every statement he makes such as his G20 utterances and showing it via press releases to the public for the lies it is. The next election will be very dirty thanks to Brown who has a track record second to none when it comes to lying. The Tories have had an easy ride so far as the (only) alternative to New Labour at UK level. We saw a microcosm of Brown's lying behaviour against the SNP during the Glenrothes by-election and that is as nothing compared with what he will do to the Tories to keep the UK premiership come the general election. David Cameron needs to wake up and get his act together before its too late.
TV journalists were just wowed and cheered Brown
Gordon getting the treatment usually reserved for The One, Obambi ?
Hey Iain, why not make a three way poll?...now that would be interesting.
1) Britain, 2) EU, 3) The Hong Kong of Europe.
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