1. Nothing meaningful can happen in the peace process until after the Israeli election.
2. A Kadima led coalition offers the best hope for a settlement.
3. Domestic policies are of secondary importance in elections - defence and security matter most.
4. A three state solution may be a more realistic long term solution than a two state one.
5. Religious tolerance is much more entrenched than we in Europe are led to believe - especially in Jerusalem
6. No peace settlement can be reached without an agreement on the future of Jerusalem
7. The Israeli electoral system guarantees political instability. There should be a 5% threshold to get seats in the Knesset and a constituency link should be established.
8. If the Israelis relaxed travel restrictions from the West Bank it would be a tremendously symbolic move.
9. A major challenge to the Israelis is to do something about the 70% of men who are not in employment - they're not unemployed, just not economically active.
10. If Hamas makes progress in any future Palestinian Authority elections the peace process will be doomed.
11. The Palestinian Authority and its President are seen as weak and not capable of delivering an agreement. Their challenge is to counter that perception.
12. The Palestinian Authority has been effective in policing the streets of the West Bank in the last twelve months and been able to impose law and order in a way it had failed to do before.
13. Many Arab governments are supportive of Israel behind the scenes.
14. There are far more informal backchannels between Arab states and Israel than most people know about.
15. Iran is the biggest hurdle to peace. Most Israelis would be supportive of a military strike against Iranian nuclear installations.
16. Egypt and Jordan are of decreasing importance in the politics of the region.
17. West Bank refugees are not interested in financial support. Everything comes back to the fact that they feel wronged.
18. The USA is seen as vital to the future of the region by both the Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis feel that only the US has the power to deal with Iran. Israelis are quite happy to talks to take place but feel the military threat needs to be available too.
19. If Israel didn't have to spend 17% of its public spending and 8% of its GDP on defence and security it would be among the most prosperous nations in the world.
20. Israeli food is some of the best I have ever eaten, and the Carlton Hotel in Tel Aviv is highly recommended!
21 comments:
Shouldn't it be 'learnt'?
"The Palestinian Authority has been effective in policing the streets in the last twelve months and been able to impose law and order in a way it had failed to do before".
Does that statement include Gaza?
No. I will clarify.
How many days were you there Iain ? and you have sorted it all out ?????
Better get TB to sign you up quick, I worked there for six months and barely scratched the surface
And the yanks could sort the whole thing out tomorrow if they really wanted too????
"If Israel didn't have to spend 17% of its public spending and 8% of its GDP on defence and security it would be among the most prosperous nations in the world."
-Iain Dale
Since 1976, Israel has been the largest annual recipient of US foreign assistance. In the past 55 years, Israel has received more than $84b. in grants alone. Annual per capita American aid to Israel is more than $340, which is by far the highest in the world. Average global aid per capita is only $22.
-Jerusalem Post
Some connection, possibly?
1. American aid is almost exclusively defence-related ... and most of that is spent on US military equipment made in the US by US workers. The aid makes Israel more secure, certainly, but it doesn't benefit its economy. (Egypt and Pakistan aren't far behind in the US defence aid they get.)
2. 70% of men are non employed? That's a typo, surely?
Yeah, that statement about 70% of men out of employment had me boggling too. What gives?
On the 70% thing, I'm pretty sure that I remember that figure correctly. It obviously includes all males. Whatever, the ratio in Israel is much much higher than any other developed country. I will try to go back and check that number out.
70% of men in the ulta-orthodox community (about 15% of the pop, i think) might be non employed because they devote themselves to full time religious study (the state and their wives support them - it's economic madness) but i'd expect the rest of the pop to conform to western norms. Iain, might you be misquoting yourself? This is what you wrote in your blog: "Labour productivity is a quarter lower than in the USA, with only 71% of males in employment (UK figure is 81%)." That would mean 29% of males are non employed - compared to 19% here.
"American aid is almost exclusively defence-related ... and most of that is spent on US military equipment made in the US by US workers. The aid makes Israel more secure, certainly, but it doesn't benefit its economy. (Egypt and Pakistan aren't far behind in the US defence aid they get.)"
True, but that money received from the US is much of the 17% of public spending that Iain thinks would otherwise make Israel prosperous. It is surely naive to think that the American aid would continue at that level were Israel not under military threat.
Iain, one question. When you refer to a three-state solution does that mean seperate states in the West Bank and Gaza or some sort of neutral "city-state" status for Jerusalem?
5 - did you mean intolerance?
8 - it would also likely involve more Israeli deaths, and be very short lived.
10 - are Fatah any better, really? Or perhaps just two faced, while Hamas is in your face.
11 - they can start by recognising Israel and teaching their children that Jews are no worse than any other people, including Muslims.
13 - so they dare not admit it?
17 - they would be if the West stopped it, and suggested the oil tich Arabs take up the subsidy of their "brothers".
You leave out the maojr factor in this conflict - Islam. After agreeing the Oslo accords, Arafat mentioned the treaty of Houdabiya. The West mostly missed this, but Muslims did not. Mohammad broke thie treaty, therefore Arafat was giving a wink to his supporters that he would not respect Oslo. And there is the anti-semitism in the Koran, and the infamous Hadith of the Gharqad tree.
You also leave out the plight of Christians in both the West Bank and Gaza. If there are an opressed people in the Middle East, surely it is these. Why does the West ignore their plight?
Well thanks for that sherlock. You had to go there to learn that?
Iain
Thanks for the notes on your trip to Israel, they were very interesting. I am British but have lived in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia) for the last twenty years and find the area fascinating. My own thoughts are these:
1. I agree that a Kadima led coalition would probably be best for the peace process but sometimes it needs the extremes to make an effective agreement otherwise they will always try and undermine it. An example of this is in Northern Ireland where it was Sinn Fein and the DUP rather than the more moderate parties that made peace.
2. With regards to a three state agreement I assume you mean Jerusalem. I agree that this would make sense and the original UN 1947 Partition Plan proposed the same thing. Jerusalem could, as the original plan envisaged be under UN control.
3. One of the problems for any peace agreement is getting an agreement through the Knesset as there are always coalition governments and the smaller, often more extreme parties hold the balance of power. Another argument against PR. Probably a referendum would be the way forward.
4. I think Israel has two choices, the first one is a one state solution, in other words incorporating the whole of historic Palestine into one country but then treating everyone with the same rights and all having the vote. Many Palestinians are in agreement with this but then this would probably not be acceptable to many in Israel because the Jews would then be a minority. The other choice is to withdraw to the pre-1967 borders, which is still more than was originally agreed in the 1947 UN plan. Israel cannot have it both ways. If they believe that occupying the West Bank is for security reasons then why are they still using and expanding the settlements? The settlement policy worsens the security situation because they act as a recruiting sergeant for extreme Palestinian groups.
5. The Arab Peace Plan surely has to be the way forward. This was introduced by the now King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. This allows for full recognition and relations by the Arab world of Israel in return of Israel pulling back to the pre-1967 borders which happens to be international law anyway. Israel would benefit massively with the business opportunities which would then open up. Most Arab governments and people want to make peace. The ongoing crisis causes instability to the Arab governments because it can drive parts of the population to extremist view points.
6. With regards to Hamas they have to be involved. Israel is not the only democracy in the Middle East as the Palestinians also have democratic elections. Hamas was elected mainly because the people were fed up with the corruption that was going on in the Fatah led government. If the West wants democracy then they have to accept the results and not only the results they wish for.
7. On the matter of the refugees returning there was a very good point made by a Palestinian on BBC World who now lives in the USA and who said that his parents could not return to the village where they were born (on the coast of Israel) even though their family had been there for generations yet someone who had never been to the Middle East before let alone Israel (a Jew) could emigrate and live there. I have a problem with countries being organised on a race basis because to me it is too similar to apartheid South Africa. We are all humans and in the case of Arabs and Jews they are both of the Semitic race.
The Palestinians who have been in the area for hundreds of years have been wronged and until this has been sorted out there will never be peace in this area. The Western governments need to be much balanced in their approach on this, especially the USA and put more pressure on Israel to work for and agree a just peace. It is in everyone’s interest.
The reason that Israel is still building settlements is a combination of two factors - the political systems gives a lot of weight to minor parties, so they get the settlements as the Israeli version of er..... electoral bribery.
The other reason is military - without the West Bank, Israel is a few miles wide in the middle.
A mad thought - a multi-billion dollar project to build artificial land on the Israeli coast. Give Israel the depth without the West Bank......
Is the answer to the Jerusalem question a "fourth" state, namely a separate city-state of Jerusalem?
That seems to me to be a better assessment than all the last 10 years of BBC reporting have ever come up wiyh. #8 - relaxing travel from the West Bank would certainly get the local economy moving & indeed allowing workers in would do something for the Israeli economy.
On the other hand it is quite obvious why it is not being done & while it would be useful if it was it is probably not useful for western powers to push it since that merely frightens Israelis while raising Palestinian expectations.
Seems to me that Israel is playing the long game here. Everyone else might like to see a solution yesterday but I suspect the Israelis would be happy to wait another 50 years if they thought that by then the Palestinians would have drifted away (into an expanded EEC perhaps?).
what ive learnt from the conflict
100:1, value of life jew:arab
Unemployment percentage in Israel is: 6% (and not 70%!!!!). Israel has now one of the better economic seasons in her life time. For the last 5 years Israel for the first time ever export more than import!
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1225199631024&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
can you explain what you mean by your #9?
Does that apply to Israeli men?
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