Sunday, August 03, 2008

Why Miliband Holds the Key to Brown's Reshuffle

The Sunday papers are full of reshuffle speculation. Everyone seems convinced that if he shuffles his pack correctlty, Gordon can get out of the hole he has dug for himself. If only it were that easy. Students of reshuffles past will know how tricky they can be. Just ask Margaret Thatcher, John Major or Tony Blair. The best laid plans can come totally unstuck if one person refuses the job which is offered to them.

I doubt whether Brown will carry out a reshuffle before the second week in September. If I were him - now there's a horrifying thought - my main priority would be to stuff my Cabinet with grown ups. I'd want to appoint people of stature who the public can relate to in a positive way. And I am not talking about the ludicrous Stephen Byers. Old enmities have to go out the window. Patrick Hennessy, a canny observer of these things, speculates that Peter Hain might be brought back, assuming the CPS doesn't charge him. It's a good suggestion as Hain has always been a competent performer and a safe pair of hands.

Of course there is a danger that too many sackings and moves will be construed as signs of panic by the increasingly virulent Westminster lobby. Headlines about a 'night of the long knives' are not what Team GB needs.

I would suggest that Brown will try to bring back Alan Milburn (possibly as Chancellor), Charles Clarke, Peter Hain and Margaret Beckett. He will probably try to woo John Reid, but I doubt very much whether he will have any success. He should forget any thoughts he may have of rehabilitatin Byers. That would smack of scraping the barrel. I also think he should promote Liam Byrne and Tony McNulty.

And as for who he might despatch, well, it's not immediately obvious to me who he would be able to knife. Most of them are his allies... Does he really have it in him to sack Ruth Kelly, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or Ed Balls? The answer is no, with the possible exception of Kelly. Des Browne and Paul Murphy are two who could be chopped without any serious consequences. And he may, perish the thought, oust a couple of Blairites like Hazel Blears (sob, sob) and John Hutton.

They key to this whole game is David Miliband. Which is why he won't be moved. If Brown wanted to move Miliband and he refused it would then be game on for the Labour leadership and game over for Gordon Brown. Miliband has only been in the job for just over a year and it would be very odd to move a Foreign Secretary after such a short time. In theory, the only place he could be moved is to the Treasury, which would be seen as a promotion. But Miliband has never shown any sign of relishing the thought of such a move and in present economic circumstances it's not a job where he is likely to enhance his reputation. And we all know who is the real Forst Lord of the Treasury, don't we?

Chancellor of the Exchequer is not a job many politicians would turn down, but David Miliband just might. Although I do not believe he wrote his Guardian article with the intention of provoking leadership speculation in the way that it did, he must know now that if he funks it now, his time may have come and gone. Although he has infuriated some of his colleagues, he has become, almost overnight, the heir apparent. When he gets back from his Minorcan holiday, his every move is going to be watched. If he has any sense he will keep his counsel until the reshuffle.

And then he can play his Joker.

Graphic Hattip to Beau Bo D'Or

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

For someone who purports to be at the vanguard of new media and constantly on the box - you always strike me as being someone who is remarkably ill-informed. This post is testimony to that. How on earth do you make a living?

Anonymous said...

whatever brown does I'm sure he will mess it up or events will make it a disaster.

Anonymous said...

What about the rumour that at least half a dozen Cabinet members have threatened to resign rather than accept being moved?

Anonymous said...

Iain..are you serious?..Milburn, Hain, Beckett and possibly Reid...It is not the people Iain, but the policies and strategy....You need to get out more...For God's sake get real man...This outfit is finished...The second coming of Christ would not save NuLab in 2010
I do worry about you sometimes.
Martin.

Anonymous said...

If you really were Gordon Brown at this time your first priority would be to eliminate risk and the emergence of threats to your own authority. Gordon has only one motivation in life (he had another one once, to become PM): holding on to his job, come hell or high water, economic and social collapse, whatever. Here I am and here I stay.

Anonymous said...

Everyone assumes that David Millionaire has the upper hand in this and shouldn't be pushed. If I was in Brown's position and it reached a stage where I knew it was endgame, I'd sack Miliband and call an election to teach DM the lesson of his life.

Anonymous said...

The BBC web page says that 3 unnamed ex-ministers are going to produce policies which will be different from Cameron's. Why can't they say who they are, and say that these policies would be different from Brown's as Brown is in trouble and not Cameron.

If I were Brown I would sack all dissidents, overt or covert in the cabinet, and throw the gauntlet. If he loses, at least he goes out with dignity.

He is taking a holiday and he knows what his family means to him. If he walks away, he will have more time to spend with his kids, one of them needs more care and support from parents. His stature will grow. He is a serious man and has a PhD could even become a Vice Chancellor of a Russell group university.

Anonymous said...

Brown could also pull the rug out from under Davey Millionaire's feet by:

1. Doing a deal with the unions - who will not back or fund Mr Millionaire anyway - and persuading them to announce funding for GB's fight back.

Without union funding, DM's bid is surely dead in the water.

2. An unattributed and attributed briefing campaign ripping Millionaire to shreds.

Anonymous said...

If I'm Brown, my number one concern is to ensure there's no possible leadership bid from within the cabinet in the autumn and my number two concern is to show that i'm decisive and inc harge. So he should:

Move Johnson to Chancellor with Ed Milliband as Chief Secretary. This means there's a very good communicator to front the impending economic relaunch but that behind him there's a policy wonk with a serious brain to do the number crunching.

Move Darling to replace Straw at the Justice Department. I'd then make Straw DPM and basically have him fill the Michael Hesletine chief spokesman role.

Establish a fully functioning Department of Equal Opportunities and give that to Harman, whilst taking away Leader of the House and the Party Chairmanship from her. Then fire Geoff Hoon from the position of Chief Whip. Then he should appoint into the positions of LoH, Chief Whip and Party Chairman three people he could absolutely trust with his life. Those three position are cruicial if Brown is to be able to keep a grip on the party in and out of parliament and he needs people filling them that are on his side.

I'd sack Milliband and bring in Hilliary Benn as Foriegn Secretary. To be honest I thought he should have done this last year- keep Milliband at more developed Environment Department and let Benn strut his stuff on the world stage. The flop that the young pretender has been as Foriegn Secretary gives me no reason to second guess my belief that Benn would have made a better Foriegn Secretary. And it will give young David the shock of his life and force him into the bitter ex-ministers club, so cutting his credibility at his knees.

Copying an idea from the Spectator, establish a Department for Climate Change and then merge what's left of Environment into a Department of Local Affairs. This would include housing. Then give this to Jon Cruddas to further shore up Brown's support with the left.

Kick out James Purnell, John Hutton, Andy Burnham and Hazel Blears to complete the purge of the Blairites. Promote Tom McNulty to Health Secretary, and create a Department for Devolved Government with Paul Murphy as Secretary of State. Keep Des Browne as Defence Secretary. Find someone to fill Business Secretary that will please the Trade Unions.

Whatever he does, he should show some backbone and strength. A wide-scale capitulation to the Blairites will finish him. It may be too late for Brown to stop a right-wing leadership challenge to him - however if he can keep the unions and the left on board then he should be virtually unremovable from the leadership.

Anonymous said...

Was John Major ever For. Sec. and for how long?

Colin said...

I'm with you on Liam Byrne, but Phoney McNumpty and hain are steps too far.

Anonymous said...

If he didn't realise the effect his article would have then he is the JOKER.

Anonymous said...

Why should anybody outside the Westminster Bubble give a tuppeny toss which useless nonentity is in charge of which pointless 'department of state'? We've seen them all for years, we're sick to death of them, we just want rid of them, and don't care which one is in charge of paperclips or which one gets the tea and biscuits.

Sir Dando Tweakshafte said...

I'm attracted to the notion of a Fantasy League Cabinet Competition between now and the year-end.

(David Miliband as Defence Secretary, Alan Johnson as Foreign Secretary, Ruth Kelly as Inside Right, Wayne Rooney as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Frank Lampard as Lord Privy Seal...)

But how on earth to measure the results?

These jokers will

(a) never score against Man U; and

(b) not actually do anything policy-wise that makes a jot of difference to the Well-being of the Nation or its GDP.

I also think that the next Leader of the Labour Party should be settled on penalties (although it may take seventeen days before one of them finds the goal...)

Anonymous said...

I would agree that Blairites in the cabinet starting from Miliband should be sacked. If the cabinet then looks leftish so be it, and it will be at least his cabinet and not Blair's.

It will be the Night of Very Long Knives and the 'little local difficuties' will start to fade. He should let Labour 'best as Labour'. At least there will be a dividing line between him and Cameron. I am Tory supporter for over 30 years, but can recognise a politician with a conviction, if Brown ditches New Labour brand.

Anonymous said...

The briefing campaign could start by scaring the life out of the public re the punitive policies Davey Millionaire would introduce if he's PM.

Top of the list would be:

Carbon rationing

1. A policy which will favour only rich gits like DM himself and the very poor.

2. Emphasise that this will involve a massive bureaucracy and huge increase in taxation.

3. This will be yet another war on hard working people - the usual effect of DM inspired policies.

4. Emphasise that DM won't care because he's a tax and spend socialist.

5. Unattributed briefings that the real reason DM wants such draconian policies is merely to increase his clout with the EU and on the lecture circuit in America - where he likes to brag of having substantially decreased emissions while substantially increasing growth.

6. Unattributed source to discredit DM's own alleged green credentials by:

7. Leaking Davey Millionaire's own scandalously high level of personal carbon emissions by listing the countless overseas visits he makes. Just a few:

April: Pakistan
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Iraq

May: Norway
US

June: Japan
Luxembourg
Jenin
Lebanon
Brussels

July: South Africa
Khartoum
Turkey
Romania

Many of these could and should have been teleconferences.

9. Quote DM's own blog:

"I met 100 Japanese bloggers tonight at the Mori Art Museum in Tokyo to debate how the internet can fuel the drive to meet the challenge of climate change." 27 June

So, as we enter a recession, DM took an oil guzzling, climate changing flight to Japan at great cost to hard working taxpayers, belching out CO2 all over the place and increasing UK's carbon emissions.

...in order to stuff his face at G8?

...and in order to make a ego boosting speech to a
100 Japanese BLOGGERS?

Anonymous said...

"I would suggest that Brown will try to bring back Alan Milburn ... Charles Clarke, Peter Hain and Margaret Beckett. He will probably try to woo John Reid."

"All aboard for the Skylark! What's that governor? Holed below the water line? Och no, that's just the Plimsoll line."

Glug ... glug ... glug

Alex said...

Personally I would drop Vaughan, Collingwood and Anderson, bring in Rob Key as captain, Jones and Harmison, and its about time we had another wicket keeper, so that too.

Then I would tell Fat Frank there is no room for him, play Gerrard and Barry in the centre, J Cole on the left, Bentley on the right, Rooney plus a target man (not Heskey, maybe Agbonlahor, up front).

But the Cabinet? Wouldn't bother. It's beyond fixing.

Mind you that Dave Milliband was good at one time. "Fly like an Eagle", "Abracadabra", "The Joker".

strapworld said...

Brown never learns does he. He gets his bunker boys to speread the word that a reshuffle is on the cards - they suggest who may move up, down or out.

When it comes to shove Brown will, as normal, bottle it. He has not got any courage whatsoever and so what we will get is a Brown Botch!

He has got to be the weakest person this country has ever had as Prime Minister. No Bottle at all. Chamberlain looks like Cromwell next to Brown!

What has this country done to deserve this coward? I would have sacked Milliband immediately!

Man in a Shed said...

Miliband now has the tiger by the tail. He should have resigned from the Cabinet in a similar move to David Davis.

The public are crying out for the type of leadership where people back their words with action and will take personal risks and live with the consequences.

But instead Gordon may have turned the tables by frightening the Labour careerists with the prospect of losing their ministerial salaries (their second jobs and salaries of course), ministerial cars and status. If Miliband doesn't act then Brown can dismiss him in a year of so when he can no longer look principled or brave, just weak.

At most he has till the Labour conference to think it over - maybe that's what he's doing on holiday.

Anonymous said...

Brown could also recalculate David Miliband's carbon footprint.

DM told GMTV that his own individual carbon footprint:

"was just over 3 tonnes - below the national average."

"I came out better than I expected," said DM.

I bet he did, given he travelled:

April: Pakistan
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Iraq

May: Norway
US

June: Japan
Luxembourg
Jenin
Lebanon
Brussels

July: South Africa
Khartoum
Turkey
Romania

I just entered these into Miliband's carbon footprint
calculator, plus 8000 mpa in a hybrid car and it calculated a stonking:

16.9 tonnes per year!

Four times the national average.

So, David Millionaire is presumably counting on taxpayer funded carbon offsetting as getting him off the hook.

Very clever, DM...or maybe not.

The government's offsetting schemes - paying for trees to be planted and buying energy-efficient light bulbs for use in developing nations - have been critised as open to abuse and unverifiable.

Lola said...

What is point? They've been in the line too long and they've run out of resources. And those human resources that would be any good won't play as they will not sacrifice themselves to re-inforce failure. Brown is bankrupt in every sence of the word. No money, no people and no policies and especially no morality. Whatever he does will not make a blind bit of difference.

All of which is all very well to speculate about and have fun with postulating all sorts of scenarios but in the real world we've got two years of generally inept government to suffer until this charade dies its natural death. Because whatever ever else happens Brown will stick out to the bitter end. In my view for two reasons. One, he will be hoping that an 'event' will turn up that can be used to salvage his reputation and two he will never ever admit that he is Wrong. Prat.

Anonymous said...

"Although I do not believe he wrote his Guardian article with the intention of provoking leadership speculation in the way that it did..."

Iain, you're the only guy on the planet who thinks this...

Get real!

Anonymous said...

Attlee's pipe can go smoke himself. Miliband certainly didn't write that article with the intention of 'bidding' for the leadership of a sinking ship. Naive he may be, and too busy to consider every move in the media game, but not duplicitous or stupidly over-ambitious. Unfortunately everyone else seems to believe in the (Da Vinci?) coded message, and apparently knows how to decode it.

Anonymous said...

I've just had two portions of Colombard but - McNulty? The most overrated pillock since Byers? What is it you see in these poly lecturers that you value? At this rate you will be promoting the Thetford Forest as a competant Minister! Kelly, Cooper, the unspeakable Balls? Perhaps it is living in Tunbridge Wells that detaches you from reality!

While I am at this; why is Cameron attaching himself to the Al Gore modish religion of AGW? There are no Audi A5's or Q7's (daft lookng thing) on Mars, but it has the same warming we do; I saw an A7 the other day; nearly as silly as a Porshe Cayenne (MG had that idea in the mid 30's; the KN, far more subtle).

We are in urgent need of sensible commentators like you to espouse the likes Lomborg, Booker and Dawkins!

Anonymous said...

Observer today:

Great cartoon of Miliband as a half crazed Artful Dodger standing at the entrance to Stalking Horse Lane leading to Blind Alley.

Anonymous said...

Part of last message on Miliband's Blog:

"Now there is a massive opportunity for Turkey and for Europe...Europe needs to embrace the opportunity to work through the accession issues for European membership."

He's on a different planet, isn't he? Not one word about us, the 50 million of us in UK who are totally opposed to more enlargement and the federal EU. We're just 'issues to work through.'

So much for Milband's new, more open democracy...like Miliband himself, it's nothing but spin.

Sling your hook, Mr Millionaire, we've had too many PMs who are eaten up with ambition and high on the buzz of power, like you. And we're not having another one.

Anonymous said...

I missed the last sentence from Miliband's blog:


"Blog resumes in three weeks or so. Hopefully browner and fresher"


Don't be daft, DM, you're far too Brown as it is.

The Remittance Man said...

Reading your list of possible new ministers I can't help thinking that Brown has a desperately shallow pool from which to draw his cabinet.

As for Miliband playing the Joker: You are aware the last chap to do that is pushing up the daisies.

Anonymous said...

And if Brown lets his former enemies back into the cabinet and the polls stay bad, what then? I don't think Brown is so stupid as to let the likes of his old buddies Clarke and Milburn back into office. He'll stick with the pgymies and lose in 2010.

Roger Thornhill said...

I cannot see a flotilla of Blairites coming to the aid of SS Gordannic.

What I can see is the cabinet-level personalities networking to horse-trade between themselves or decide what they will decline so as to stuff up the plans. This is because the power has leaked away from Gordon.

Milburn as Chancellor while Brown is in No10? Please. Milburn has, IMHO, decided to aim for the leadership and took a positive step to retreat into the NE to avoid more damaging gossip and also to keep his powder dry.

The only people Brown will convince to move to No.11 are those so dependent on him and already over-promoted - Jaiquackey Smith or Balls, I suspect.

Blears will cling on somewhere, I suspect - she is a shameless clockwork talking head. Same goes for Buff.

I don't rate Alexander's chances though.

Anonymous said...

Miliband is a punk. No reason at all why Brown couldn't sack him. (Of course, he won't.)

Richard Nabavi said...

Peter Hain would be a big risk, wouldn't he? Unless Brown knew for certain that Hain will be 100% exonerated, bringing him back into a senior position could backfire dangerously.

Mind you, given Brown's unrivalled capacity for shooting himself in the foot, maybe..

Anonymous said...

I've just gone off you Iain, unless that is you are making silly suggestions in the hope that Gordon actually does what you say?!

Tony McNumpty, the most offensive man in the world, and certainly one of the most useless?

Peter Hain?

Uhhh? Confused...

Anonymous said...

As alluded to above. immediately before John Major became PM, he was Foreign Secretary for less than a year and then Chancellor for only a bit longer. Didn't do his career prospects much harm.

Brown should job swop Milliband and Darling, replace his Home Sec with Milburn, replace his Defence Sec with Charles Clarke, sack Ruth Kelly and Hazel Blairs. Institute a Department of Devolution and Local Government combining the present Communities, Scottish, Welsh and NI positions (providing a heavyweight position for someone senior). He should slim down Environment to "Environment and Climate Change" and put farming with BURR as Dept of "Commerce and Farming" but take out Energy to be on its own. However, I predict that very little, if any, of this will happen.

The departmental changes should equally be implemented by Cameron when he comes in.

Stasi said...

Ian, I assume that you had had a very good lunch and/or a mischievious twinkie, ahem...I mean twinkle in your eye when you composed this article? Had you perchance mixed a list of labour young blades (who they?) with that of 'retiring MPs' or something? Beckett, Reid, why not Prescott too? As for retaining lest alone promoting Tony McNasty...god help us all.

neil craig said...

Alternately he could wait till Milibland has taken enough rope & fire him. Thus demonstrating the smackm of firm government & allowing everybody else to move up a step.