Tuesday, August 26, 2008

It's a Cool, Cool Summer

Someone told me yesterday that this will be the coldest August in decades. This global warming is getting a bit serious, isn't it? :)

Seriously, I have been trying to find comparative temperatures for July and August in Britain on the net but have singularly failed. What are the facts? Have summers been getting cooler?

65 comments:

Anonymous said...

No, they, along with winters, have been getting warmer but wetter. So pretty much in line with global warming predictions.

Anonymous said...

August is currently running 0.2C below what we would expect. The average temperature (taking both maxima and minima into account is 16.1C, comapred to the 1971-2000 average of 16.3C. With a warmer spell coming up later this week it is likely this month will be bang on average.

Where this month has been poor is sunshine (only 65% of the expected August total) and rainfall (195% of normal).

Courtesy of Philip Eden http://climate-uk.com/

Anonymous said...

Now come on Ian, don't be fooled by what you're senses tell you, or even what scientific research shows.
You must all obey the Green Facist overlords, if it's getting cooler, it must mean it's getting hotter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7329799.stm

Anonymous said...

sorry, that should have been 'your' not 'you are'

My mistake, I blame the long weekend.

Limes are inflating said...

Funny how it's called 'Global Warming' and not 'British Warming'. Limes anyone?

Alex said...

For raw statistics the Met Office is pretty good:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/

I am afraid the facts don't support your desire to disprove global warming. According to climate change theorists who support global warming, in this part of the world we can expect warmer winters and cloudier, wetter summers, which is exactly what we are getting.

James said...

So, if we are back to the average of 1971 - 2000, we are getting cooler than we were during recent years. What is actually interesting is how this year compares to the last ten years.

Here are the figures from 1998 onwards from the site referenced:

15.81, 16.37, 16.65, 16.76, 17, 18.28, 17.62, 16.46, 16.32, 15.69

That's an average of 16.7 so we are 0.6 below the average of the last ten years at the moment but it is warmer than last year.

Best wishes

James

Anonymous said...

Iain, it's global warming, not British warming.

I know you're a skeptic but try to root your skepticism in real science and stats, not just the August sunshine levels!

I like your blog but every so often you let your guard down Iain with comments like this, you look for data to support your arguments and not the other way around.

Anonymous said...

Iain, do you understand the word "global"? In what way would a British summer represent a global phenomenon?

Its not just the education of the youth we need to worry about but it appears scientific ignorance is alive and well in the older generation as well.

Iain Dale said...

Jesus, calm down people. Did you not notice the smiley at the end of the first para?

And then I asked a question which I was hoping someone could give me the answer to.

Newmania said...

From 1998 up until 2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero). This has continued and the warming of the previous century has been more or less balanced
A period of warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.
There may be global warming but we have no idea what the extent of it is or the extent to which it is man made. That is pretty much all you can say about it.

Climate professionals are quick to say that local perturbations like this are of far too short a duration to be meaningful, but they have Polar bears all over their literature when the population has actually increased considerably since the 60s if not over the last few years

For all this; it is my belief that we are going to perish in an apocalypse brought about by our Promethean ambition in defiance of the old order. It just sort of feels right The new Adam and Eve will be David Milliband and Harriet Harman who will have eaten everyone else in the bunker ....

Sceptical Steve said...

I somehow doubt that the various people drawing attention to the difference between a Global effect and a strictly UK effect are as voluble when the boot's on the other foot, i.e. when the Climate Zealots make their apolcalyptic predictions for the UK based on their Global averages.

Just a quick question for them. Given the resources that have been ploughed into the subject recently, perhaps it would be appropriate to update the famous "Hockey Stick" beyond 1998?

Springheel said...

try The Weather Outlook.

Do you have an opinion on Global Darkening, too?

T England said...

Global warming!
More like global fleecing!
If you think about it, our planet is only just on the right orbit for life, as gravity pulls the earth closer to the sun & we start to burn up do you think the insane green mechants will charge us for that as well?
I wonder what their cure will be LOL!

Go green!
I've seen the future, I cant afford it!

Anonymous said...

Methinks many commenters here protesteth too much.

Blue Eyes said...

The sun spot/cosmic ray people predicted a cool summer, the global warming people predict ever hotter summers.

Anonymous said...

Next you'll be denying that 6 billion Jews were murdered in WW2.

Fascist!!!!

Refreshing said...

There is some historic data for many countries here:
Try the file v2.max.z.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2
But the resulting 21MB data file needs some heavy analysis to use effectively. I've plugged it into my analyser (ie Excel) and will have a look if I have time. Enough data there to come to any conclusion one would think (eg looking at different averages from different weather stations). Not that I'm skeptical about the use of statistics or anything.

Chrome Diplomat said...

Just putting a smile after something doesn't make it less dumb...although get your point.

What worries me are all the comments from others talking about how global warming is a con- should I assume they have all recently discovered brand new data that overthrows what 90% of climatologists believe?

Or are they just basing their views on pure ignorance/ a quick watch of 'the great global warming swindle' (The swindle being the idea that this documentary comes even close to fact)?

Half The Story said...

The point abourt global warming is that it will destroy the gulf stream, which is what keeps britain warmer than it should be.

So the planet will warm, the gulf stream will go and britain will get colder, and its borders will shrink as the sea level rises.

Global warming = weather chnage, not hotter weather.

Tristan said...

Firstly, all those comments saying 'its global not British' - I don't think Iain was being entirely serious with this post...

Secondly: Iain, didn't you get the memo? Its 'Climate Change' now, not Global Warming. That means if it does get colder its all our fault anyway.
(personally I think this anthropogenic climate change hysteria shows us humans to be very conceited - only we can produce change in a climate which has varied massively over the millenia...)

T England said...

I do hope all the deluded religious types dont believe in this climate change nonsense!
After all, science is science & religion doesn't believe in science does it?

So it seems to me all those religious types dont need to worry do they?

Mind you!
I'm into science but absolutely don't believe this climate delusion!
Oh well!

Lord Asda said...

I confess i bought a plastic bag.
Its just that I'd left the other 99 bags for life in the car. CAR?? yes I know I know..But three kids on the bus..
Three kids? Yes I know, how unthinking of me.
Oh the output of carbon from Thailand pales into insignificance compared to my own destruction of scarce resources and overpopulating the planet.
The guilt... the guilt... I bought a plastic bag and now we have wetter summers..I curse myself for ruining it for everyone

Anonymous said...

Quite right - it's climate change - not the same as global warming. Remeber that the Romans were growing grapes and making wine up by Hadrian's Wall in 200 (or something) AD - definitely a warm cycle, and there was another warm cycle in the early middle ages; then a cool cycle in Victorian times (Thames frozen etc); and here we go into another warm cycle n'est ce pas?

tapestry said...

Have a trot around www.eureferendum.blogspot.com for good climate coverage.

A warming-sceptic, of course.

Dick the Prick said...

Anon 12.45 - I certainly disagree with you - it was 6 million - and I find the comparison between genuine fascists and those who harbour concerns about climate change being man made disingenuous at best and just utterly obnoxious more probably.

I live in the mountains anywho - ya boo shucks.

Sceptical Steve said...

Chrome Diplomat, 1:12 pm.

The position of any true scientist is one of scepticism. Scientific knowledge develops through the intellectual challenge to the accepted world.

A scientist never has the right to suppress conflicting views - he must take a pride in demonstrating how conflicting views can be accommodated within his theory.

This is why the attempts by the GW Orthodoxy to close down debate are an insult to science.

trevorsden said...

Anonymous11.39 -- don't you believe it. Various records of world temperatures show that temperatures now are lower than when Hanson started the whole thing off 20 years ago.

Actual temperatures are nothing NOTHING like what the warmists computer models have predicted. Pretty much NOT in line with global warming predictions.

So do not worry lain about critics trying to separate 'Britain' from 'global'. we have recently had a lot of Global Cooling.

Anyone on this thread trying to pretend otherwise is deluded.

"global warming is that it will destroy the gulf stream" ... What cobblers. Research has claimed that our temps have more to do with air streams over the Rockies anyway. And lets not forget that records show there has been no warming over the last 10 years, but COOLING.

Finally 2 points
- if anyone wants to learn about the scam behind global warming - read all about UN apparatchik Maurice Strong.

- and you know the Greenies are on a looser when they invoke fascists and nazis. I now invoke Godwins Law and close this thread.

Lemming said...

Before arguing over subtle differences in temperature, have a look at http://surfacestations.org/ for direct evidence that the measurements are simply wrong. Even changes in the types of white paint on Stevenson screens (the boxes in which weather stations are housed) can affect readings by more than the supposed shift during the 20th century. Much more important is the gradual building up of asphalt car parks, buildings etc. around existing stations so that some indicate temperatures in excess of 7 deg C hotter than the 1950s! All of this rubbish is munged into the calculations of the Earth's temperature so that the readings simply cannot be trusted.

Anonymous said...

why are you denying global warming? or at least suggesting its not true, and why is David Cameron distancing himself from Zac Goldsmith - what happened to the `Vote Blue go Green' - was it all just a bit of cameron spin.?

Can we al get back into our 4x4s now - or do we still have to keep them hidden in the garage until after the next election?

canvas said...

they vary - like always.

chrome diplomat said...

Sceptical Steve:

I understand your point, but there comes a time when you have to start truly acting upon scientific data and not simply expressing total scepticism to the evidence.

Science tells us water boils at 100 degrees C, are we to be sceptical about this to- or is it alright to accept it and put the kettle on?

I don't think true dissenting voices should be shut down, but when descent comes from scientists who are funded by big-oil and other members of the anti-climate change lobby then it is their science that needs the most scrutiny.

Science cannot exist in a vacuum, sooner or later you have to except the facts and take action on them. I'm sure Nero would have put out the fires if only all the science had been in...

A Jamie Oliver Englishman said...

well ah fink iss all bollocks, glowball warmimg my arse, iss bleedin' freezing aht vere tudday, innit.

Lemming said...

Hi Canvas,

Does your reply refer to my comment on weather stations? If so, the point is not that they vary around a neutral average, but that the encroachment of tarmac, asphalt, parked cars and air conditioning units is remorselessly one way, and perfectly capable of explaining apparent increases of 0.5, 1 or 2 degrees C.

As in politics, economics and the rest, every claim of straightforward statistical evidence as proof of any argument usually turns out to be questionable. And as for a 'consensus' among professionals being of any significance, let's just remember the performance of economists over the last few years. The economy is a system under direct human control, and yet these PhD professionals who do the job day in day out (just like climate scientists) still get it completely wrong.

Sceptical Steve said...

Chrome Diplomat

As you say "Science tells us water boils at 100 degrees C.", but this is only half the story.

The boiling point of water is actually 100C at an atmospheric pressure of 760mm Mercury, and varies by a predictable amount depending on the air pressure and therefore the altitude. With your reasoning, you would assume that a kettle must always boil at 100C, and you'd therefore wonder why you can't make a decent cuppa in the Himalayas.

That's why you need a scientist to guide you!

Dick the Prick said...

Sceptical Steve - yup, I was gonna say that too - plus, any impurities lower the temperature but we're all gonna die from the deluge - I read it on the Beeb so cast your scepticism aside dear boy!!

trevorsden said...

Anonymous 2.32 - first why not give yourself a name?

Second ...denying? I am denying man made global warming. Why ? Because there is absolutely no evidence for it and the facts as measured do not match the computer models of the AGW mob.
Global temperatures do change - it was hotter in the middle ages but the last 10 years haver been static or declining.

Chrome diplomat --- there IS no evidence for man made global warming. Increasingly what evidence there is points to temperatures not being dependent on man made activity.
Your analagy is fatuous. There is ample experimental and observational evidence for the boiling point of water at sea level. There is no such thing for global temperatures nor for man made global warming.
Actual temperature measurements even in the US where its good are hopelessly skewed by heat sink effect and measurements in other places are extrapolated interpolated adjusted and re calibrated etc etc.
Even in the US they (thats Hansen and NASA), use dubious ways to asses whatever adjustments they deem necessary to the actual recorded measurements.

Your knowledge of global warming science and its associated 'science politics' his hopelessly ill informed.

The reality is that if the world climate were as sensitive to shifts in CO2 then the climate would have 'run away' long ago. The Earth is not as sensitive as the mad greenies would have us believe.

Anonymous said...

The High Priest of global warming sceptics and cynics is Piers Corbyn - read all about it at www.weatheraction.com

Trumpeter Lanfried said...

I tried googling "Summers + hot" for information on this problem and got an eyeful of sexy lingerie. Strange but true.

trevorsden said...

Someone mentioned EU Referendum

Disappearing arctic ice?

think again
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2008/08/great-freeze-begins.html

The fact that this appears in EU Referendum points up the fact that man made global warming is being used as a stick to beat us all with.

Not east by the EU - hence websites like EUR have to keep up to speed with the reality so they can fight the money/ power grabbing bureaucrats.

Ian Thorpe said...

My memory may be going a bit, after all I have just passed an unmentionable birthday, but I seem to recall the hottest summers were my coolest.

David from Ealing said...

I think the real answer is that our weather is becoming more extreme. One day we have hot weather, just a day or two later we have cold weather, sometimes even hail. One day it's pouring down and then we have a drought. Averages can hind a multitude of things. In general, though, global warming is taking place and is likely to cause problems, such as fires in the Mediterranean, more hurricanes and so on.

Anonymous said...

I think Iain is being mischievous, in the full knowledge that one's blog traffic goes up once the phrase 'global warming' is written...

But then I decided my take on the global warming debate by doing what I always do nowadays with issues I know little about: looked at both sides to see which held the moonbarkers who want to make life more difficult for everyone else. Easy. I recommend it in these time-poor times.

trevorsden said...

Becoming more extreme - huh?

http://www.globalwarming.org/node/438
"the weather is pretty much the same as it has always been, only that our perceptions have changed.
One of the reasons why we may think the weather is wilder is the massive growth in media coverage."

Anonymous said...

The explanation is very simple, this year we are experiencing a La Nina event which is counterbalancing the effects of global warming for now.

Hence we are back to the more typical British summer.

Lemming said...

How many of you know that beyond a certain level, increasing the concentration of CO2 produces virtually no increase in greenhouse effect?

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/climate-sensitivity-and-editorial.html

"The formula above simply does not allow you more than 1.5 Celsius degrees of warming from the CO2 greenhouse effect. " (even if the concentration was 10x what it is today)

Talking to a very brainy Global Warming non-sceptic at work, he accepts this (now), but is convinced that other effects will increase the temperature still further e.g. loss of ice cap reflectivity etc.

Just thought I'd mention it.

Jilted John said...

How many of you know that beyond a certain level, increasing the concentration of CO2 produces virtually no increase in greenhouse effect?

I didn't know that, but then I didn't know that Methane was up to 31 times more efficient as a greenhouse gas until some vegan green campaigners told me it was, in a bid to impose their joyless eating habits on everyone else.

So apparently the problem isn't people driving round London in 4x4s it's cows farting.

Or maybe it's all balls. I don't know. I'm waiting to be told that alcohol causes global warming. Or is it just fun? Yes, that must be it. Whatever it is that you enjoy doing, that is the ultimate cause of global warming.

Not a sheep said...

Alex (11:46) like the Guardian in 2006 has swallowed the "experts" lines hook, line and sinker. In 2006 the Guardian said "Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground."

Don't let these "experts" off the hook; they "knew" in 2006 and were wrong, they "know" now and will be proved wrong again. Unfortunately I fear we will have wasted many £ billions by the time we realise that we have been conned.

Man Made Climate Change is about control and taxation, read Bishop Hill, SurfaceStations, EUReferendum and GreenieWatch for the proof.

"Don't beleieve the hype"

chrome diplomat said...

trevorsden:

First off lets debunk the idea that there is 'absolutely no evidence for man made climate change'. While you can argue that, for some, there may not be enough evidence, that does not constitute none and the majority of scientists in the specific field of climatology see evidence of global warming and attribute it, at the very least in part, to mans influence over the environment. So please, stop the intellectual dishonesty.

Secondly, I do not claim to be a scientist, but I do tend to trust what I read in reputable journals such as the royal society and the IPCC over research funded by those who are either not climatologists or are funded by those who would be most damaged by a major policy shift towards a truly green agenda.

Anonymous said...

Iain,

Try http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

for the central england temperature data. The monthly mean data series goes back to 1659 AD.

As for man driven Global Warming - I am a sceptic - and I am a scientist.

Patrick said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dick wishart said...

"the majority of scientists in the specific field of climatology see evidence of global warming and attribute it, at the very least in part, to mans influence over the environment."

Well if they are that certain we must believe it. NOT.

Martin said...

What utter rubbish. WE were told summers would be hotter and dryer. There has been no global warming for 10 years or more. It's lies by the green mafia.

Norfolk Blogger said...

Iain, this year will be cooler because of a refular global phenomena known as La nina (something to do with el Nino). It occurs cyclically. Figures show that this year will still be the tenth warmest since records began. Lots of global warming deniers are using this so called cool year as evidence of no global warming but exclude the fact that this is still in the top ten ever !

jeffy said...

To the greens who are saying it is exactly what we expected, summers are supposed to be getting cloudier and wetter, etc: I look forward to your comments the next time it is unusually hot at this time of year! No doubt there will be a chorus of 'Hang on, hang on, this isn't what we expected..perhaps there is something wrong with our theory after all!'. As if. It must be lovely being a global warming alarmist - there are absolutely no contra-indicators! Wetter, drier, hotter, colder - it all proves the theory.
By the way, note that it's usually 'climate change', not 'global warming' now, get the terminology right please everyone, it's been so ever since it started becoming obvious that it's been getting steadily colder since 2000...

Norfolk Blogger said...

Oh, and we are also in a ten year cool off which will happen due to the metling ice shelf. Of course, as soon as it has all melted things will change drastically.

It doesn't matter to mosty climate change denyers though because they are all largely old and will be long dead by then.

Anonymous said...

A cold wet August.

The end of the world is nigH!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure of the science, but I'm pretty sure that this frozen summer is all Gordon Brown's fault

CityUnslicker said...

Norfolk is right, whatever else you can say, El Nino and La Nina are the single biggest effects on the world temperature and operate in a very long cycle.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

If the Thames had frozen over this year all the loonies would be predicting an ice age.

As it is, for the past ten years, according to four good sources (the Met Office and NASA included) temperatures have been cooler.

If the effects of the Gulf Stream lessen due to global warming, then "global warming" due to greenhouse gases will more than compensate for that or it will just get a bit cooler, but you cannot have it both ways! Some say the declining temperature of the Gulf Stream will cool us down, and other say this will be more than compensated for by other warming factors. The fact is, they don't know!

We are simply experiencing the ebb and flow of natural climate change, just as, some have pointed out, the Romans had vines in Vindolanda and Medieval London had skating on the Thames.

In the nineteen seventies, scientists were telling us, with their usual assuredness, that the Earth was cooling down.

All of this, and I mean all of the climate change debate is founded upon very volatile and conflicting data. If the scientists cannot tell us accurately about one element of it, eg the Gulf Stream and its effect upon the UK, what else can they not get right?

The only good news about climate change is for the Treasury, who are currently benefiting from a raft of specious "green" taxes that are going straight into plugging the hole in their public spending deficit.

Richard Dale said...

It can't possibly be a cold August, because global warming is a closed issue, beyond debate. Models used to predict it say that it will give Britain cold, wet winters but dry, warm summers.

That is why we have had two mild, dry (sorry that should be wet, due to global warming) winters and two cool (sorry hot, global warming again), wet (sorry dry due to ... global warming) summers. Confusing isn't it?

You can't let the facts get in the way of green concensus! I think that should have read scientific concensus, but I just couldn't bring myself to write that.

neil craig said...

"Global warming can mean colder, it can mean drier, it can mean wetter, that's what we're dealing with."
--Steven Guilbeault, Greenpeace 2005

Indeed.
The world did have a very cold last winter.

The stuff about Britain getting colder because of warming is based on a misunderstanding. If warming happened & if it stopped the Gulf Stream this would happen. Widely reported a few years ago was the finding by one team that the Gulf Stream had slowed by 30%. Far less widely reported was that when others took readings they found it hadn't.

For those who say it doesn't matter that we are cooler the world must be warming - note that the floating Arctic icecap has expanded by 30% over the last year & is pretty much back where it started. Pictucres at http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2008/08/20/arctic-ice-grows-30-per-cent-in-a-year/

What is happening is that we have had no sunspot activity for a year now & an inactive sun provides less heat. The CO2 effect, if any, is clearly far smaller & if we are heading for solar cooling, beneficial.

cookie said...

I link below to a few high quality sites with a more sceptical bent regarding this issue, to counter that adopted by the overwhelmingly alarmist UK media outlets and their 'useful idiot' contributors to this thread:

http://www.climate-skeptic.com/

http://www.climateaudit.org/

http://motls.blogspot.com/
(LuboŇ° Motl's response to Peter Tatchell's recent oxygen scare is particularly amusing - at least that scare won't require the destruction of the most developed economies and the impedent of developing economies to disprove).

There is plenty of time before the resumption of the alarmists' hoped for catastrophic global warming for all those concerned to get a basic understanding of the science. One thing is for sure, the fact that this August in the UK has been colder and wetter than the average for the last few decades reveals nothing.

Anonymous said...

chrome diplomat said...

"the majority of scientists in the specific field of climatology"

That would be the climatology employing all the non-scientists who spout this rubbish.

neil craig said...

I believe the consensus among trained & qualified astrologers is that it is right. The consensus among witchfinders is even more overwhelming.