Why Miliband Holds the Key to Brown's Reshuffle

The Sunday papers are full of reshuffle speculation. Everyone seems convinced that if he shuffles his pack correctlty, Gordon can get out of the hole he has dug for himself. If only it were that easy. Students of reshuffles past will know how tricky they can be. Just ask Margaret Thatcher, John Major or Tony Blair. The best laid plans can come totally unstuck if one person refuses the job which is offered to them.

I doubt whether Brown will carry out a reshuffle before the second week in September. If I were him - now there's a horrifying thought - my main priority would be to stuff my Cabinet with grown ups. I'd want to appoint people of stature who the public can relate to in a positive way. And I am not talking about the ludicrous Stephen Byers. Old enmities have to go out the window. Patrick Hennessy, a canny observer of these things, speculates that Peter Hain might be brought back, assuming the CPS doesn't charge him. It's a good suggestion as Hain has always been a competent performer and a safe pair of hands.

Of course there is a danger that too many sackings and moves will be construed as signs of panic by the increasingly virulent Westminster lobby. Headlines about a 'night of the long knives' are not what Team GB needs.

I would suggest that Brown will try to bring back Alan Milburn (possibly as Chancellor), Charles Clarke, Peter Hain and Margaret Beckett. He will probably try to woo John Reid, but I doubt very much whether he will have any success. He should forget any thoughts he may have of rehabilitatin Byers. That would smack of scraping the barrel. I also think he should promote Liam Byrne and Tony McNulty.

And as for who he might despatch, well, it's not immediately obvious to me who he would be able to knife. Most of them are his allies... Does he really have it in him to sack Ruth Kelly, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or Ed Balls? The answer is no, with the possible exception of Kelly. Des Browne and Paul Murphy are two who could be chopped without any serious consequences. And he may, perish the thought, oust a couple of Blairites like Hazel Blears (sob, sob) and John Hutton.

They key to this whole game is David Miliband. Which is why he won't be moved. If Brown wanted to move Miliband and he refused it would then be game on for the Labour leadership and game over for Gordon Brown. Miliband has only been in the job for just over a year and it would be very odd to move a Foreign Secretary after such a short time. In theory, the only place he could be moved is to the Treasury, which would be seen as a promotion. But Miliband has never shown any sign of relishing the thought of such a move and in present economic circumstances it's not a job where he is likely to enhance his reputation. And we all know who is the real Forst Lord of the Treasury, don't we?

Chancellor of the Exchequer is not a job many politicians would turn down, but David Miliband just might. Although I do not believe he wrote his Guardian article with the intention of provoking leadership speculation in the way that it did, he must know now that if he funks it now, his time may have come and gone. Although he has infuriated some of his colleagues, he has become, almost overnight, the heir apparent. When he gets back from his Minorcan holiday, his every move is going to be watched. If he has any sense he will keep his counsel until the reshuffle.

And then he can play his Joker.

Graphic Hattip to Beau Bo D'Or

Who Should David Cameron Promote?

ConservativeHome has an interesting piece on the Big Beasts of the Tory Party not in the Shadow Cabinet. They include IDS, DD, Ken Clarke, Malcolm Rifkind and John Redwood. They speculate about which of these might be included in a Cameron Cabinet. My bet is none of them will.

But this does raise the question of David Cameron's priorities as PM. Does he want a Cabinet of the biggest beasts possible, or does he want to shape a Cabinet in his own fashion, full of fresh talent and young faces? A wise PM will somehow want to mix the two, which is why I hope he does include at least two of the names above.

But just how deep is the talent in the ranks of junior shadow spokespeople outside the Shadow Cabinet? Gordon Brown's problem is that there is a dearth of talent at Minister of State level, so if he holds a Cabinet reshuffle, it would only have any impact if he brought back some of the Blairites who have fallen by the wayside over the years.

Looking through the middle ranks of the Conservative front bench I wondered how many of them could genuinely be described as definite Cabinet material. I've created a poll for you to have your say, in which I ask which five of the current front bench are definite Cabinet material.... My five votes go to Greg Clark, Damian Green, Ed Vaizey, Maria Miller and David Burrowes.

Vote HERE.

Fisking the Shadow Cabinet Reshuffle

This article by Melissa Kite is from today's Sunday Telegraph. My comments are in italics...


David Cameron is preparing a radical shake-up of his shadow cabinet after achieving the Tories' best election result for 15 years.
No he isn't. He will wait until Gordon Brown unveils his new team at the beginning of July.
Buoyed by winning more than 800 council seats, the Conservative leader is ready to appoint a new line-up to fight Gordon Brown, now almost certain to take over from Tony Blair this summer.
Yup, at the beginning of July.
Of the top positions, only George Osborne is expected to remain in his post, as shadow chancellor.
On whose say so?
David Davis, the shadow home secretary, is set for a move to a beefed-up shadow ministry of defence as part of a plan to divide the home affairs brief.
How exactly does one beef up defence? Call it Ministry of War?
Nick Herbert, shadow police reform minister, is tipped to take on policing and immigration.
Seeing as police and immigration will now be in two different departments, this is a fatuous suggestion.
Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary, is expected to be a casualty of the shake-up following months of internal rancour about alleged disloyalty.
This does have the ring of truth about it. I have lost count of the number of Shadow Cabinet ministers and MPs who have told me the same thing in the last two weeks. He is accused of briefing the press against David Cameron and not performing in his current role.
William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, is set for demotion after angering many in the party with his continued devotion to commercial public speaking events.
He has scaled these down and after the publication of his Wilberforce book in June he will be devoting his time to politics more or less full time it is to be hoped.
However, he is popular in the country and is tipped for a move to either party chairman or shadow Commons leader, roles which would showcase his speaking talents.
The suggestion of Party Chairman has been touted before but Hague would hate it and refuse it. And if he's asked to be Shadow Leader of the House he might as well ring up HarperCollins and ask them for a new book contract. Not going to happen.
Others tipped for promotion include Chris Grayling, Caroline Spelman, and David Ruffley.
Ah, now we're getting to the nub of it.
Mr Grayling, who rose to prominence by campaigning against Labour corruption, is likely to be moved from transport to a more high profile job.
Wouldn't disagree with that. Indeed, I'd move him back to being Leader of the Commons which gives hm a wide ranging role and allows his to reindulge himself in his role as the Jack Russell terrier with his teeth round the ankles of any cabinet minister who misbehaves.
Mr Ruffley is considered to have shone at pensions and is tipped for a senior Treasury role.
Particularly by Mr Ruffley himself. His colleagues are also terribly impressed - terribly impressed by Mr Ruffley's ability to tell everyone how well he has done. In truth he hasn't done a bad job, but there are a dozen or more junior spokespeople with at least equal, if not better claims. More on these later today.
Miss Spelman, at local government, won admiration for her campaign against Labour's council tax increases and is seen as a rising star.
She needs to develop a much harder edge and media presence. Her Shadow Cabinet place is safe and she should stay in the same job.
Mr Cameron will attempt to bring in more women to the shadow cabinet. Julie Kirkbride, the former shadow culture secretary, is said to be ready for a return to the frontline.
I do hope that is the case. She's superb on the media and much underrated.
Of middle-ranking ministers, Michael Gove, at housing, and Greg Clark, who speaks on charities, are also tipped for elevation.
Both would be superb appointments.
Mr Cameron, his mandate strengthened at the polls, is likely to make the changes within weeks.
Yes, within about nine weeks...
"David is strong enough to do anything he wants to do now," said one insider.
He always has been. 67% of the vote in the leadership contest said it all.
"Whatever changes he wants to make, now is the time to make them."
It most patently isn't. The first week of July is the best time to make the changes, once David Cameron knows who his team will be up against. Anyone with half a political brain would know that. It would be a fundamental mistake to make any wideranging changes before then.

ENDS

So, who is the source of Melissa Kite's article? She probably had more than one, but the main source is clearly a close admirer of David Ruffley! My suspicions are that it is a middle ranking shadow spokesman whose credibility for Melissa Kite is emphasised by his closeness to David Cameron. He ought to hide his traces better in future...

When the Pack Needs to be Shuffled...

The FOX hunting season seems to have started again. Dizzy speculates HERE about a future Conservative front bench reshuffle. It's clear that when Gordon Brown (for it is he) creates his Cabinet David Cameron will want to refashion his own front bench team. Between now and then the whole of the Conservative Westminster village will indulge in its favourite parlour game and speculate on who's in, who's out, who's up, who's down, safe in the knowledge that everyone will be wrong.

When he does conduct a reshuffle I hope David Cameron will goive some real thought to career progression and make appointments based on which jobs the particular individuals would be most suited to in government. Too often politicians are put in the wrong jobs, purely because there is a gap that needs to be filled. So far David Cameron has avoided the temptation of many party leaders to reshuffle his team to often. Indeed, in 18 months he hasn't reshuffled his Shadow Cabinet at all.

We all know who the good performers have been and those who haven't. The ConservativeHome monthly tracking poll gives a reasonable indication of this. There's no doubt that when the time comes, probably in early July, Cameron needs to choose the right team to fight the next two years up to the election. My suspicion is that there will be some radical changes and a lot of new blood brought in. Let's hope there won't be too much left on the carpet.