Thursday, May 08, 2008

BREAKING NEWS: Tories have 26 Point Lead

The Sun is about to make public a poll showing the Conservatives on 49 per cent and Labour on 23. More later...

UPDATE: LibDems on 17. Brown's only consolation is that other potential leaders such Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell would ALL make things even worse.

Mr Anthony Blair was unavailable for comment (or a comeback).

UPDATE: The Sun's full story on the YouGov poll is HERE.


Anonymous said...

49-23 does not customarily equal 24. The Sun is not renowned for its mathematical competence, however.

Alan said...

Iain - that's 26!

I don't even want to plug that into electoral calculus.

MIchael Portillo said...

This is just not good enough. If I were in charge we'd be doing much better. This is what happens when you are inconsistent.

Alan Douglas said...

49 - 23 = 2, more or less !

Or 24, or 26, or something ....

Etier way good news.

Alan Douglas

PSJ said...

Doesn't 49 vs 23 make it 26? Unbelievably good either way.

Alan Douglas said...

that's better !

John Trenchard said...

OT - but kind of related.

our clunking fist has just made a hamfist of his northern ireland summit.

whilst the Irish pledged inward infrastructure investment of 1 billion (and thats from a country of only 4 million), our clunking fist can only commit to *allowing* the northern irish to keep 2 billion of proceeds from the sales of public assets...

no incentives to business. no tax breaks. no corp tax reduction - nothing.

well done Gordo - you just upped the Scottish independence vote a fair bit (and pissed off the Northern Irish at the same time..)

watch the press conf video here Iain.

via Slugger O Toole

The man is a walking disaster.

Anonymous said...

Iain, I think this just means that Murdoch has decided who should win the next General Election.

** Rupert has spoken..**

Matt said...

If you stick the Libs on a nominal 15% (leaving 13% to be divided up amongst the nationalists and other minor parties) you end up with an overall majority of 302.

We can dream, at least.

John L said...

Electoral Calculus

Con 469
Lab 129
LD 24

Con Majority 288

Not going to happen but it will scare the **** out of Labour.

Anonymous said...


Perhaps Dave will now tell me how he is going to help with my 100 percent tax hike.

Have you NEVER heard of personal allowances Dave?

Anonymous said...

Hysterical comment from Mike 'The Oracle' Smithson suggesting Tessa Jowell as a potential leader...

Mind you, he was only tipping her as a potential 100/1 shot so I don't think he is betting the mortgage on it..

Neil B said...

I did quickly plug it into the Election Calculus thing.

Although I know this is ridiculous for a few reasons, it gives the following:

Con: 469
Lab: 129
Lib: 24

Majority: 288

And Labour's furthest south seat outside of London would be Leicester East.

Charlotte Corday said...

Have you seen "The Sun's" website? It is not just the poll result but the headlines that go with it.

Plus, beneath it they've got a picture of Brown right next to a caption "Inside The Mind of a Monster", that refers to that ghastly Austrian paedo case.

Brown baiting is becoming a national sport.

Andy in Leeds said...

It's up on their website now;

Astro-Turf Lawnmower said...

Let's see if Cameron (or, realistically, Brown) can get the Tory share to start with a 5!

The Boris said...

Veni - vidi - vici - crikey!

Tory Bear said...

Glorious glorious news!

Check out ToryBear a new blog that will be officially launching soon but already live!

Feedback would be most appreciated!


Tears running down my face said...

Police called to Blair Mansion after neighbours complain of shrilled laughter from a female resident disturbs the peace.

Oh what bliss, thank you Lord for there truly is a God.

JessTheDog said...

Bliar wouldn't have made much of a difference. He toked on the spliff of power until the last possible moment, then handed it to Gordon leaving him with one puff before his fingers got burnt. If Bliar had been in, the Brown bounce would not have happened and he would be dogged by the mess that is Iraq. He would have had to sack Brown to cling onto power anyway, which would have caused all sorts of trouble as Brown's stock was still relatively high then.

Madasafish said...

Simon Heffer will say it's not enough, Cameron is doing a lousy job, has no policies , is vacuous and is jut a smart face in a suit.

Gilligans revenge said...

Not a mention on the BBC website (updated every 2 minutes).

Get the trucks ready for the mass evacuation of BBC Towers once Gordon and the youngsters and pygmies are removed.

Anonymous said...

Unbelievable although "YouGov" is usually spot on as was proven by the locals - Electoral Calculus gives Cameron 288 overall majority on these figures. The following cease to be Labour MPs

Jack Straw
Alistair Darling
Jacqui Smith
John Hutton
Tony McNulty
Caroline Flint
Dawn Primarolo
Tessa Jowell
Patricia Hewitt
Geoffrey Robinson
Ruth Kelly
Geoff Hoon
Ben Bradshaw
Bill Rammell
Stephen Pound
Greg Pope
Andrew McKinley
Charles Clarke
John Denham
Mike O'Brien
Sadiq Khan
To name but a few - the list goes on and on as well known names and Cabinet and ex-Cabinet Ministers fall one by one.

Panic on the back benches tonight . No Labour constituency is now "safe"

Iain Dale said...

The BBC news rules prevent them from ever running a poll as a news story. They have to tack it on the end of something else.

Travis Bickle said...

Ah, but using the Brownie power of rounding (where 600K becomes a million) makes Labour level with the Conservatives.

Nothing to see, move along.

Gordon the Bogeyman (aka Snotgobbler) said...

I see the Sun front page has a headline 'INSIDE THE MIND OF A MONSTER'. Has Gordo's psychiatrist blabbed?

Anonymous said...

Imagine how bad it will be after the "Gordon snubs Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral" headlines sink in.


The mobile phones will be bouncing off the walls tonight. The only downside is the thought of the glee unrestrained in Chez Blair....

Rob said...

Isn't this the point at which Cllr David Boothroyd pops up to say it is psephological impossibility for Labour to lose the next election? Or has he gone rather quiet now?

Anonymous said...

The statement that other possible leaders would be worse is just ridiculous.

You cannot ask someone on the street simply whether a different personality leading would be better/worse because you do not know what the new leader would do and where they would lead the party *to*.

Of course people are going to say that Labour, as it is today, led my a different leader would be 'worse' (because it would have then had to ditch and elect a new one causing further chaos.)

The 'different leader' part of the poll is just invalid crap.

Anonymous said...

This is no longer about Labour winning the next election it's about saving the Labour Party from political suicide.

The next election is already lost.

Brown needs to be "persuaded" for "the good of the Party and the socialist movement" to stand aside and allow Straw to take over with the endorsement of Miliband,Balls etc.(Gordon won't go peacably of course - Labour sleepwalked into allowing him to become leader and will go down with him). The problem with that scenario is that it will be unsustainable to have another "unelected" leader and the pressure for them to call an election will intolerable. They'll lose it. and on the figures given Straw will probably also lose his seat too but his "reward" will be a seat in the Lords(which has a certain ironic enjoyment). Miliband and Balls can fight it out in opposition for the leadership, regroup for 2013/2014 election.

To continue as they are is for more and more seats to be lost and to literally die the death of a thousand opinion polls.

Is there a a present day Robin Cook or Geoffrey Howe in the Cabinet who is prepared to put party and honour before ambition ? On the present showing - doubtful. So it'll be left to the ex-Blairite Ministers to do the job on Gordon. None of which will help Labour's electoral prospects in the short term

Anonymous said...

It aint over till 2010.....

judith said...

Iain, I wish you wouldn't publicise these polls, it only demolarises Labour activists; still, in their hearts, they know the Great Leader will utlimately lead them to victory.

C said...

Just went to the Sun website and the first thing I saw was an advert for 'Doomsday' - but for a moment there I thought it was their report on the story! LOL

dirty european socialist said...

I still say labour have to wait a atleast 6 montsh to get over the financial downturn, no point in giving a new PM such a tough economic time to take over in.

Replace the PM with Hitler and Mugabe said...

This opinion poll does demolarise me. How can a PM who has never had a recession, be lower in the polls than any prime minister in UK history. I hope we get Hitler, or Mugabe replacing him instead, and millions of people get killed and we turn into Albania. British people are morons, they superficial morons.

You can bet the moronic public would still put Hitler, Mugabe and Pol Pot above a perfeclty good PM who just lacks that all BS important quality Charimsa Yes Hitler and Magabe had that. So let;s elect Adolf Hitler. All that seems to matter is charisma. And Hitler had that.

dirty european socialist said...

The Sun newspaper are a bunch of slags. Written by almost entirely the scum of the earth.

dirty european socialist said...

Labour should change the PM's name to Adolf Hitler the superfical charismatic mass murderer,moron who causes recession but cheers people up with his great speeches As the moron British public seem to think charisma is more important than doing good job.

dirty european socialist said...

Sun newspaper headline
Moronic British public want charismatic idiot to take over as PM. Turn to page 3 to see women with big boobies, and read articles by a bunhch of ####'s and stories about death camps.

Adrian Yalland said...

Crisis - what crisis?

This is like Hitler in the Bunker, with his delusions that the (non-existent) 9th army would surround Berlin, defeat the Russians and save the day for the Third Reich.

No-one had the guts to say "Mein Fuhrer - alles is vorbei", and put a Luger to the back of his head.

Brown is surrounded by a load of people who refuse to see the emperor is as naked as the day he was born!

Having been a Tory party member in the days of Major's premiership, I know exactly how Labour party members must be feeling - and how annoyed they must be with a leadership which is about as detached from reality as it is possible to be, and who only open their mouth to change feet!

Lovely to see isn't it!

PaulD said...

And five hours later, not a word on the BBC news website about the most astonishing poll result in political history.

dirty european socialist said...

Sorry Pascoe. Pascoe seems to have written posirtce spsin on it for labour So well done Mr Pascoe. Maybe he is not as evil as the other people at the newspaper.

P[ascoe the hero saves the PM said...

Pascoe has saved labour with his artcile he pointed out at the end that the PM is more popular than any other labour figure I think this will keep labour together and then we will recover and whip tory but.

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

I predicted exactly this the other day in a thread here, when I said Cameron would go to 49% support.

The long nightmare of Labour's existence, and the moral eyesore it has always represented, are finally ending.

We will see a poll in which Cameron has 50+ support, and if Broon tries to gerrymander the election methodology, it will climb higher still.

Labour are finished. This is the end. After the GE Cameron will have 450 MPs, Labour barely 100. The evil scum will never rule again.

I don't know who will succeed the Tories - as I said the other day the next non-Tory PM is still an ovum, probably. But the whole political spectrum will move so far to the right over the next 40 or so years of Conservative rule that the next non-tory PM will make Thatcher look like a wringing wet liberal.

Dirty European Socialist said...

Well done to Pascoe who has pointed out the PM is still the most popular in the government. And the government would ecline if he left.
It seems to be the he is not the problem the cabinet is.
There is only one way out for this. The PM is the most popular man in the party. So he needs to use himself the best. Sack Milliband and appoint is own bogey as Foreign secretery.
Sack Balls and appoint his own Balls as education secretery.
Sack Straw and appoint his own bottle of pee as Justice secretery.

He is a great leader. And the message from the opinion pol;l is simple the public want more of the PM.

Adrian Yalland said...

Bawgie, I reckon that there will be three or four Tory GE victories, but with smaller majorities.

I remember in 1997, then 2001 when it was said in academic circles that Labour had replaced the Tories as the natural party of power, and that as the last century had been Tory, the next would be Labour.

But I pointed out that the only reason that Labour was popular was because of Blair, and the only reason Blair won was because he talked and looked like a Tory (even if he didn't legislate like one)!

But, eventually, the Tories will lose an election within 10-14 years after they win the next one.

Who wins after is another question. Labour might reinvent themselves again.

A week is a long time in politics.

Anonymous said...

While this poll is shocking for Labour, it does show the limitations of online election predictors. Putting these numbers into Electoral Calculus shows that the Tories will win Glasgow North! As much as I would like to see it I think there is more chance of Ian Paisley being elected as the next Pope than of the Tories winning anything in Glasgow!

It's nice to dream though!

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

I'm not so sure, Adrian. Labour after the GE will be in disastrous financial straits because its ability to use the civil service to do its political work will have gone, its ability to buy votes through benefits will have gone, its ability to hand out sinecures to supporters will have gone and it won't be able to abuse things like official cars, nor sell peerages for that matter. And of course its broadcasting arm, the BBC, will get broken up and will no longer be there spinning for it.

I cannot see how it can continue to function as a party, never mind campaign. It'll have no grassroots left to campaign for it and we can be sure Cameron will attack its corrupt trade union funding.

Aside from the grassroots point, none of the above ever applied to the Tories after 1997, and in fact they started to regenerate local support quite rapidly as disillusionment with the liars set in.

No party has a right to exist. I think we will soon see Labour's disappearance, because nobody is going to forget 16 years of systematic lying very quickly. It will be protracted, because there remains a substantial Labour client vote of the workshy out there, but I really do think it's over.

Anonymous said...

The very last thing I would want is another Labour s**t government - I've lived through the Wilson/Callaghan era and now these liars and I don't want anymore.

But, if Labour don't go to the polls in the next 3 months they will disintegrate, implode and disappear into the realms of history - a bit like the Liberals!

The credit crunch is going nowhere - it may look a bit better but it ain't - the system's broke. Nothing will change until the US housing market stabilises and in the meantime the UK one is going in exactly the same direction and so is Ireland and Spain to name but 2.

Result - more bank writedowns, more bailouts, more inflation and a bigger economic mess! Not only is Brown toast, the whole left wing of politics as as well.

Andy in Leeds said...

First sighting of a mention of the poll on the BBC website;

Brow the record breaker said...

Is Brown the worst leader ever ?

From +11 on taking over to -26 in 8 months.

Its breathtaking!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

"This is no longer about Labour winning the next election it's about saving the Labour Party from political suicide."

Good luck with that! Within three general elections (at most) at least one major part of the liblabcons will be eradicated with the rest soon to follow. The entire rotten system is on the way out. Joyously, the liblabcons can do nothing about it and are too stupid to even understand it.

dirty european socialist said...

"The Sun newspaper are a bunch of slags. Written by almost entirely the scum of the earth...As the moron British public seem to think charisma is more important than doing good job."

Mind your own business you foreign dirtbag.

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

"its broadcasting arm, the BBC, will get broken up and will no longer be there spinning for it."

Nah, Al-beeb will be sloshing taxpayers money into tory bank accounts. All those 'appearance fees' will of course be given as a public service.

simon said...

Crikey! I thought the Tory 1992-97 government was repulsive, but this Labour lot are even WORSE!!! I can see Labour's poll share dipping below the 20% mark now- the only way for the b*stards is down. What will be interesting is to see whether the Libbies will INCREASE their poll rating and become the 'haven' for disaffected reds- leading to internal trouble for the jumper brigade. In Scotland, the continuing Labour car crash can only make matters worse. It does not seem like a year since the SNP won the election up here. If the SNP do win 20 odd Westminster seats next time there will be 'dancing in the streets'- and on Labour's grave! The historians in a few decades time will write scant little about GB as PM except for the twat losing his nerve and not calling a late 2007 election. Which he would have won (insert- laughter).

Fred Fumanchu said...

Never mind the arithmetic, if McSnottie looks like a loser, acts like a loser and sounds like a loser, then he's a loser...

YouGov just confirms what we all know.

dirty european socialist said...

Simply not true to say this is the worst rating for a government party. This is not the lowest opinion poll for a government. The tories got 22% in 1994 december. Plus labour were on 61%. Plus you go only started in 2000. So it is only if you are selective in choosing opinion poll companies.

dirty european socialist said...

May 09, 2008 8:36 AM I am not foreign you lying racist nazi idiot. What the heck makes you think anyone who dissagress with you is from aborad. You are an idiot. You are utterly stark raving bonkers. You cliam anyone who dissagrees with you is from aborad. Forget the government you must have record low IQ. LOL. Yesssss. You are a mad troll.

Anonymous said...

here's some interesting questions and answers from YouGov , regarding their polling methodology

read it here

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

@ dirty european socialist

- he probably thought you were foreign because of your poor command of English spelling and grammar.

simon said...

I think 'dirty eurothingy wotsit' is trying to do a 'stanislav' and failing dismally. A bit like the party she supports! She should buy a 'speak and spell', and hopefully an improvement will be there for all to see. Or perhaps not.

dirty european socialist said...

Why do you have this idea I am a she. Men are supposed lack skills at English and social stuff.
Women tlak 3 times as much as men.
The female brain is good at communication and social stuff,.
The male brain is good at strategic stuff.
Simon you are not very bright. And as for a man who refers to himself as a bogey. so what. Maybe that notion givers you some sort of sick thrill. LOL. Eaaaaasy.

Dave H. said...

When I first glanced at the picture, I saw GB's sagging, pasty face and below it the words 'inside the mind of a monster'.

It may have referred to another man with deep personality flaws but when the ambulance finally comes for Gordon, please get the police to search Number Ten's cellar.