Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Another Day Another Defection


A sixth Labour councillor in Ealing, Zahida Abbas Noori, has joined the Conservatives this morning.. Click HERE to see what happened...

The two graphs above are fascinating. The first shows how the Betfair odds on a victory for Tony Lit in Ealing Southall have shortened over time and the second one shows how the odds on a LibDem victory have lengthened.

In addition, two LibDem councilllors in Colchester have switched to the Tories, putting the Tories in control of the council for the first time in 20 years. More from the East Anglian Daily Times HERE.

73 comments:

Curly said...

I must be going dyslexic, I thought I'd read

"Another day, another defecation!"

Anonymous said...

Another Sikh?

Ed said...

Another Sikh?

The relevance of which would be..?

Is this connected to a) The Tories making a real difference on Ealing Council b) DC's brilliant interview with Andrew Marr?

The pendulum is swinging...

Newmania said...

Good news I may have to go along and help a bit . I noticed the lovely Miss Hunt was lending a hand

Man in a shed said...

Time for the Tories - Winning here signs I think.

Or - Its a two horse race - only the Tories can beat Labour ! (+ Dodgy bar chart of course - not sure graphs are quite the same Iain ).

Thank you for cheering my day.

Anonymous said...

Iain - which seat is it that you are going for? I can only assume this is the reason for the usually interesting, right-wing leaning but curious and critical blog that I used to enjoy being turned into a rah-rah page for CCO. I now reflect on the questions in your reader survey about Tory-bias with wry smiles.

Anonymous said...

OT both AlBeeb and Sky are broadcasting IDS as ALBeeb put it Tory Social Policy.

Anonymous said...

Bob Russell has been very negative about Colchester for the last few years and I always think, "Well why doesn't he do something about it, you're the MP for godsake!"

I am happy Colchester council has now gone blue, especially after disapointing results in May.(+2,-2)

Now we need to get Bob out and Jill Skalla in!

GA said...

Jill Skalla for Colchester!

http://essex.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2395118119

Giddy said...

Iain... those graphs... I like and respect most of your posts, but misleading scales like that are the type of thing i associate with tom watson

gordon Brown's Teflon Coat said...

Anonymous said...
Another Sikh?

A pathetic comment from a Zanu Labour Anonymong possibly?

This certainly has the MO of Labor party, namely a snide attempt to discredit the subject.

Does it matter what colour or ethnic background the defector comes from? Perhaps Anonymous 10.36 would care to enlighten us.

I wonder what insults are likely to levelled at the Colchester turncoats?

allan said...

Will they be resigning and seeking a new mandate?

allan said...

Will they be resigning and seeking a new mandate?

Iain Dale said...

Anonymous.

1. I am not applying for seats
2. Do you not think political defections are noteworthy of comment?
3. Do you not think Betfair odds are worthy of comment?
4. Did you not see the piece I did yesterday criticising IDS's tax proposition?

Emily said...

Congratulations to Robert Davidson and the Tory group on Colchester Borough Council - fantastic news - finally we have overall control and a kick in the teeth for the odious Bob Russell to boot!

Anonymous said...

By the look of those graphs, the interesting thing is that the odds on the LibDems winning are still shorter than the odds on the Tories winning. Never mind, Iain.

Brown in a Hole said...

Do you not getting the feeling this government died this week? The sheer underwhelmingnature of the coronation and brown frankly pathetic performance so far as premier have taken the last breath of air from NuLab sails. I am coinvinced brown will increasingly be seen as a fag-end PM. Government defeated in Lords again last night..... power is slipping away and the public have seen through the NuLab spin finally. Campbells only contribution has been to remind people of how utterly detestable the bliar years were and how untrustworthy brown really is. "i lied, i lied, my credibility is shot"

eric the fish said...

"The two graphs above are fascinating" - erm to a few eccentrics perhaps. Better phrasing, especially for your sub aquatic fan base, might be: the two graphs above are fishy...

Anonymous said...

The latest poll (taken after PMQs) gives Labour a 58 seat majority.

Newmania said...

I wonder if , as the two proper Parties get there act together if we may find a lot of Liberals deciding if they are in fact pale Socialists or Libertarians. It is possible that the next election will finish them off .
Clegg and the like won`t care , they can jump ship in a second . I`d have thought he could easily sit on the Conservative side. Hughes for example might just as well be in the Labour Party . he would actually be somewhat to the left of that Party.

( Ah yes the Straight choice for Bermondsey.....what a ...um..nice chap)

Anonymous said...

this means all three councillors in Southall Broadway ward, along with all three in Lady Margaret, have defected.

Still more possible defections to come though, from Dormers Wells, Southall Green, or Norwood Green.

Btw, given that she is called Zahida, which is an Arabic/Islamic name, and she runs a charity in Pakistan (not many Sikhs there), it is fairly unlikely that she is a Sikh.

Newmania said...

The latest poll (taken after PMQs) gives Labour a 58 seat majority.


30 seats to be lost on the boundary commission. Close already and i do not think you are refferring to the latest Poll which was worse for the Red Devils

Chris Paul said...

So both parties are on about 5-1 against? That's something to write home about then. The two graphs show a compensation between the two losing camps. How is the market for second place?

GS said...

Whatever the fussing amongst the chattering classes, events on the ground are going Cameron's way.

pensioners are us said...

Perhaps this signals a landslide in the next General Election,or then again maybe not.

ten more years said...

Newmania said...

The latest poll (taken after PMQs) gives Labour a 58 seat majority.

Morning Newmania,hope you are well.

pensioners love gordon said...

Anonymous said...

The latest poll (taken after PMQs) gives Labour a 58 seat majority.

Good.

David Mills is innocent said...

A good choice for PMQs this week should be the spiralling Olympics bill. After all who signed off on the budget, forgot to add VAT, economic genius etc. Would sow the seed in the public mind that brown isnt all he claimed. Especially important given the impending economic problems......

Anonymous said...

No-Eton dave should lead on the evils of grammar schools and the advantages of high taxation.

Ed said...

pale Socialists or Libertarians

I hate to criticise the Conservative hierarchy, but with people like IDS and the supposedly "trad" ConHome types about, are the Conservatives really the home of the Libertarian?

andy said...

The data on odds.bestbetting.com shows that both Labour and Conservative chances of winning have improved over the last week.

Labour from 60% to 65% probability (as implied by the odds)

Conservative from 10% to 25%

The LD probability reduces over the same period from 40% to just under 20%.

So Lit is doing well at the expense of the Mingbats, but is not converting enough Labour voters, it seems.

Anonymous said...

"Pensioners love Gordon said..."

Hello "Mike" - nice to see you back again!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

"Pensioners love Gordon said..."

Hello "Mike" - nice to see you back again!

Matron is that you ?

Anonymous said...

"No-Eton dave should lead on the evils of grammar schools and the advantages of high taxation."

- or perhaps how tax benefits for married couples would mean that if your spouse died suddenly then the Government's first response would be to increase your taxes. Thank you, Cameron's loving Tories.

Anonymous said...

Grant Shapps seems to have made a stupid mistake http://www.libdemvoice.org/grant-shapps-991.html

And I thought that he was Mr Whiter-Than-White, Holier-Than-Thou when it came to campaigning.

What an idiot! Him and Tom Watson are like two peas in a pod.

Anonymous said...

Shapps caught astro-turfing. or another one of those Tory miS-HAPPS!

aardvark said...

The Betfair odds on a Tory victory in Southall have certainly shortened but to put them in perspective you need also to quote the Labour odds.

Currently, the odds are:

Labour 0.56/1
Conservative 3.2/1
LibDem 4.6/1

Still some way to go!

Newmania said...

Piara Khabra (Labour): 22937 votes
24.4% Nigel Bakhai (Liberal Democrat): 11497 votes
21.6% Mark Nicholson (Conservative): 10147 votes
4.6% Sarah Edwards (Green Party): 2175 votes
0.6% Malkiat Bilku (Workers' Revolutionary Party): 289 votes



This was the last result . A big ask , as they say , for the Conservatives to take it Isn`t it more a matter of de railing the Brown momentum and spreading panic ? A disaster for Labour could still fall far short of a Conservative victory.

Or have I misunderstood ?

Anonymous said...

Bad news about Colchester as the local Tories are pretty rubbish to be frank!

Atiq Malik said...

Another Sikh, @ 10:36AM

She is Muslim of Pakistani origin.

Newmania said...

ED SAID-are the Conservatives really the home of the Libertarian?

In that the most important Liberty anyone has is the right to use their earnings as they wish they are certainly far ahead of the contenders .Aside form this they are the Party least addicted to spreading state control.

IMHO

Anonymous said...

Ed said...

The pendulum is swinging...

July 10, 2007 10:39 AM

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I thought it had already done so, a few months ago "Camera On" was 14% ahead in the polls.

Anonymous said...

pendulum or political rope?

Hughes Views said...

The tiny volumes recorded on these charts suggest that the majority of the punts may be from Tory or Lib Dem backers spending a couple of pounds in the hope of an 'odds swing towards the xxx party' headline. Surely no experienced political commentator would fall for such a tired old feeble scam would they?

Anonymous said...

Tory Astroturfers R Us
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ67wndcOVE

What a fool

Hughes Views said...

PS re "The latest poll (taken after PMQs) gives Labour a 58 seat majority...." I have some good news and some bad news for newmania. First the bad: most predictions have already factored in the boundary changes. Now the good: there are 23 months to go before the election, almost anything could happen...

Anonymous said...

A fool maybe,but an Eton Dave fool for sure.

Anonymous said...

For the Tories to be on course to win the next election they have to win Ealing.Simple as, nothing less will do.Labour won Mid Staffs in 1990 on bigger swing than the Tories need in Ealing.Labour still lost heavily in 1992.

If the Tories push the LDs to third place it's all over for Ming..

the ghost of tory past said...

"In that the most important Liberty anyone has is the right to use their earnings as they wish they are certainly far ahead of the contenders .Aside form this they are the Party least addicted to spreading state control."

Telling people how they should live their lives by planning to penalise those who do not marry? Refusal to equalise the age of consent? Section 28? Refusal ever to hold a referendum on any subject when in power? Ending the right to silence? Etc. Etc. Etc.

Ed said...

they are the Party least addicted to spreading state control.

Yes, in the same way that democracy is the worst system apart from all the others... We have to make the case a little more positively than that!

Tim said...

Re: Shapps

But... but... but... where is Iain's outrage?

Newmania said...

anon, wouldn`t they need to double their vote to do that ? Across the country this would be a melt down for Labour surely ?
I can see that Labour would like to present what appears to be a staggering swing against them in a good light but it is approaching the absurd to set your goals quite as low as that.
I sense defeatism in the air , but actually I doubt it will be as bad as all that for the tax eaters.

(Given that more of the English actually voted Conservative last time God know how Labour think hey are going to rule here on " English questions" if they only get 261 seats whioch seems highly likely ).

Ghost or Tory past - Married People are currently absurdly poorly treated at low levels leading to the problems we see everyday In the current tax system a couple with two children would have to work 100 hours more to get the same take home pay as a single mother with two children. It is this farcical anomaly that political correctness has lead the Labour Party to , that should be adjusted. You are starting form the wrong place.
The last time the Conservative Party was in power we still had a functioning Parliamentary Democracy. WE do not , as the Labour Party have pointed out whilst signing away the country , live in a rolling plebiscite. I think that defence is weaker now(when Labour are using it ). Parliament has been by-passed not just by Blair but by the development of the media and society. The best reason for requiring a referendum is when one Party gives away Sovereignty against the wishes of 70 % of the people. I appreciate the Conservatives have been complicit in this betrayal but scepticism was not the force ten years ago it is now and many have just realised we are no longer a country. In the rest of the EU the fact we no longer have our own foreign Policy is taken as read.
I suppose the right for homosexuals to sodomise sixteen year old boys and protecting criminals is terribly important but I can’t get to excited about it myself . I have this in common with virtually all Labour voters as well as Conservatives. The fact is that Blair has made prescriptive laws (3000 ) at a rate unprecedented in this country . and we are now more micro managed than we have ever been except in war time .

Presumably Gordon Brown agrees with me as he has been at pains to promise not to be .....um...Gordon Brown. That sounds likely

( You see what I did there its called sarcasm)

Anonymous said...

The latest poll (taken after PMQs) gives Labour a 58 seat majority, according to the Electoral Calculus site.

There's been some 'straw clutching' earlier in the thread concerning boundary changes. Just to clear things up, this is a quote from the Electoral Calculus site:

"New Boundaries: All predictions on the site are now based on new constituency boundaries which were finalised in July 2006. These boundary changes take approximately 10 seats away from Labour and gives them to the Conservatives."

Anonymous said...

newmania said: "I can see that Labour would like to present what appears to be a staggering swing against them in a good light but it is approaching the absurd to set your goals quite as low as that."

I am sure that the Tories accepted that the Bromley and Chislehurst result (massive swing against the Tories under Cameron) was a terrible blow for their new leader.

King Cnut said...

The Ministry of Truth has covered these defections in great detail

It is not at all clear that Labour's loss is the Boy Dave's gain.

Newmania said...

B and C was a wierd one but given that Labour were pushed into fourth place by the UK Independence Party and failed to win the the Blaenau Gwent by-elections that night . Do you want to make that your example? Fourth place ...nice.


Hmmmm I love the smell of defeatism in the morning. It is however intersting that even after the boundary changes it would appear that the COnservative Party are so badly under represented( although I have seen figures as high as thirty seats ).
I suppose people are leaving Labour areas so fast they can`t keep up.

I`m one of them actually

Anonymous said...

Thes people aren't defecting for 'political reasons' they are defecting because of internal rivalries, bought about by cultural differences, thwarted ambition etc. For every voter of their own religion/culture they'll bring with them, others will go to the other side. This will make no impression outside that particular seat.

Anonymous said...

Completely O/T, but tomorrow is brown trousers day again for our beloved, nose-picking Prime Minister. How about a little contest, Iain, for the most develish question he could be asked by Dave?

Ed said...

I suppose people are leaving Labour areas so fast they can`t keep up.

Quite right N, there is a serious flaw in the Boundaries Commission system in that it takes so long for the boundaries to catch up with demographic change and internal migration.

Anonymous said...

What about "Do you support the Conservative's plans for higher taxation?

Cromer Cruiser said...

Anon 3.27

Re: a question to ask at brown-trouser time -

"Can the Prime Minister confirm that, when taking PMQ's, his preference is incontinence pants rather than nappies?"

the man from del monte said...

"B and C was a wierd one but given that Labour were pushed into fourth place by the UK Independence Party and failed to win the the Blaenau Gwent by-elections that night . Do you want to make that your example? Fourth place ...nice."

Newmania, I am a LibDem, so I am more than happy with B&C as an example. Yes, Labour was pushed into fourth. Clearly showing that the LibDems are the only genuine alternative to Labour - not just the "Shadow of Blair" option offered by Cameron.

B Frank from Colchester said...

"Bad news about Colchester as the local Tories are pretty rubbish to be frank! "


Says who? Nobody has interviewed me about how they treat me.

Unity said...

“I joined the Labour Party to serve my community. That remains the case….. I have not resigned my membership and will not be joining the Conservatives.

“Tomorrow I will be leading campaigning for Labour’s victory on July 19th. I hope to see you on the campaign trail too!"

Councillor Mrs Zahida Noori, posted by Tom Watson about 10-15 minutes ago...

jean shaw said...

The Party Tony Lit is standing for is David Cameron's Conservatives as per the Returning Officer's list. You have to be joking!!

Newmania said...

MAN FROM D M etc said .....LibDems are the only genuine alternative to Labour

The Lib Dems will support the Labour Party in the event of a hung Parliament on the offer of PR.
They are the villains cringing assistant ..." Yes Master ...I seek only to do your evil bidding".
They have succeeded in becoming even more pointless than before when many would have said this was impossible .
They have some good ideas though , I think , on crime and housing for example .Good original thinking which will be welcome in the Conservative Party when those who cannot support Brown and wish to be taken seriously defect.

Why not its all the rage .

Joe Taylor said...

Iain, you really need to start citing your sources.

The reason I ask is that you appear to be the first blogger to have posted this, and (as Unity has pointed out) it appears not to be true...

Care to clear this one up?

Anonymous said...

I assume all the good councillors will be standing down to enable their constituents to ratify their decision?

Anonymous said...

Iain, Gordon Brown has announced that he is backing Tony Lit for Ealing. Why have you not posted this yet?

Grant Shapp.

Whoops, that's Grant Shapp pretending to be someone pretending to obviously not be Grant Shapp in the way that only Grant Shapp could do it but of course I'm really Tom Watson which is what Grant Shapp would of course say if anyone at all was vaguely interested in what a Tory nomark with a strange name would have to say about anything but still. . . . Know any good passwords???

Anonymous said...

Grant Shapp

Shag'n rat peas!

Anonymous said...

They Sikh him here. . .

He's a Dedicated Defector with Passion.

Anonymous said...

KINKy?

David said...

Jill Skalla has a website www.jillskalla.com