Friday, May 04, 2007

Morning Live Blog

15.29
Conservatives win three seats in York.

15.25
Conservatives gain Gedling frm NOC.

15.23
Tories now look close to getting 700 gains. LibDems down 264, Labour down 389.

15.22
LibDems trounced by Tories in North Devon. Newark and Sherwood is a Tory gain.

15.03
LibDems lose four seats to the Conservatives in Aylesbury Vale, a council they had hoped to take.

14.44
Conservatives gain a seat in Stoke for the first time ever. They missed another by 13. 3 gains in Newcastle under Lyme. Could be heading for 12 gains in Staffordshire Moorlands. Conservatives gain South Shropshire with six gains

14.22
Conservatives increase majority in Wellingborough. The new composition is: Conservative - 30 (+3) Labour - 4 (-4) Independent - 2 (+1). Tony Sharp of the Waendel blog has been elected as a councillor for the first time. Well done to him!

14.10
Truly amazing result in South Norfolk - Tories gain 20 seats off the LibDems and get control. They defeat the LibDem Council leader. David Cameron rumoured to be on his way there...

13.52
Fantastic result in Braintree - 15 gains for the Tories, including 10 from Labour.

13.24
Con lose Taunton Deane, with one ward to declare: Labour Party 1 -4, Conservative Party 22 -6, Liberal Democrat 26 +11, Independent 4 +2. Jeremy Browne will be grinning like a cheshire cat.

13.23
From Richard Havers: With three of the eight regional list votes declared it's perhaps surprising that the Labour vote has actually increased from 262,313 to 271,276. The share is marginally down from 35.9% to 35.3. Given that this includes Glasgow and Central Scotland perhaps this is not too surprising. The SNP vote has massively increased from 142,539 to 222,095 a jump in share from 19.5% to 28.9%. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives show little change. The big losers are the SSP, a drop close to 60,000 votes. Solidarity (Sheridaninanity) picked up close to 17,000 of these but the rest have almost all gone to the SNP. The Greens have lost close to 15,000 so far, two percentage points on the share.The implication from the Greens leader is they've been disproportionably hurt by the spoiled papers.

13.20
Conservatives gain Mid Suffolk Con=19 +3, Lib=10 -2, Lab=0 -2, Ind=4 -2, Grn=2 +1
Conservatives lose Solihull to NOC. Con down three, LibDems up two.

13.19
Conservatives take control of North Shropshire, 9 gains so far in Staffordshire Moorlands, 2 gains in East Staffordshire

13.17
Conservatives gain 5 seats in Darlington.

13.12
South Staffs - Sir Patrick Cormack's seat = 7 Tory gains, Labour down 6.

13.11
The Labour Leader of South Derbyshire Council has lost his seat. Andrew Woodman fully expects that council to go Tory.

13.09
LibDems are wiped out in Broadland. Norfolk Blogger fails to win his seat in Taverham. LibDems lost all their 11 seats. Labour, bizarrely gained 9 seats. This is a big blow to the LibDems as they hoped to do well in the new Broadland parliamentary seat. The BBC got it wrong. The LibDems have 9 seats (down from 11) and Labour have none.

13.04
Conservatives miss out on their first councillor in Cambridge by 19 votes.

12.59
BNP lose three seats in Burnley - one each to each of the main parties.

12.58
Conservatives take Crawley with 5 gains.

12.54
Tories take two seats in Brighton, Greens one. Is it looking good for the Tories in Brighton?

12.49
Tories gain a few seats in North Norfolk and Broadland, including my Campaign Assistant James Carswell in Sprowston (part of Norwich North). Well done James!

12.45
Liberals gain an extra seat in Canterbury, up to 9 now. Tories currently on 15, labour 2....few more wards to be declared. should be done by 1pm. Julian Brazier needs to get his act together here. He should not let the LibDems get a foothold.

12.44
Liverpool = Tories were 4th in many seats.
Newcastle Upon Tyne = Labour expect to make 2 gains from LD
Gateshead = Lib Dems struggling in two seats from a fight from Labour.

12.41
Conservatives get a foothold on York City Council with one gain. William Hague is saying that a quarter of all Tory gains are in the north.

12.26
Conservatives gain three seats in Rugby to take control. Jeremy Wright, the local MP, is one of the most impressive of the 2005 intake.

12.16
Conservatives take control of Uttlesford in Essex (my home patch!) with six gains from the LibDems

12.15
Conservatives make 5 gains in Reading

11.20
Labour MP for Thurrock, Andrew Mackinlay, has joined us on the
18 Doughty Street couch. Any questions for him?

11.04
Crewe & Nantwich 28 Conservative +3, 17 Labour -1, 6 Liberal Democrat, 5 Others. 28 Conservative and 28 not Conservative, while technically NOC will be under Conservative control as they only need to carry 1 further vote.This seat is being spun in the media, without giving the full facts.

10.58
From a Scottish correspondent: "Although a Unionist from Northern Ireland and a natural Tory voter a friend was planning to vote Labour in order to stop Nicola Sturgeon in the constituency and Conservative on the regional list. On his way to vote the SNP man outside the Polling Station went to offer him a leaflet, when he politely said no thanks, the Labour canvasser bellowed - "don't bother mate he's Irish, he's for us". My friend was disgusted by this arrogance and vote Tory on both ballots. I think this arrogance is one of the main reasons why Labour is in trouble in Scotland."

10.02
Scotland - Tory share of the constituency vote is 16.2%, way above what the polls were predicting, and also 1% more than the LibDems.

65 comments:

Anonymous said...

Apart from gaining Wrexham, Labour were severely down in all the seats they held

In vote shares, Tories and Plaid are neck and neck at around 22%
Lib Dems gained no ground
BNP were only 2,000 votes short of a seat in North Wales
Tories are tonight's big winners, although that won't be reflected in the number of their seats

ezra said...

ordovicius - the point is, everyone knew the Tories would be the biggest winners, that much was obvious. It's a matter of degrees. Of course Labour's vote went down, what did you expect? The point is that they didn't capitulate.

Anonymous said...

ezra said...

No point coming crying to me, Im just reporting the facts.

Mohammed is Plaid

Richard Havers said...

Good news so far on the Tories. I've been predicting this for a month now. the best news is John Lamont unseated Euan Robson the sitting Lib Dem MSP in my constituency (Roxburgh & Berwickshire)

Richard Havers said...

As a caveat, my comments are related to Scotland only.

Preston said...

". Lorraine Fulbrook will be dancing in the streets of whatever town there is in South Ribble. "

Heheh - there's a few places she could choose Iain. Maybe you should help her come election time to check whether dancing feet are best suited in Leyland, Penworthan, Longton, or maybe Meols Cop, Tarleton, Croston.....

=D xD

(Oh, and I'm in Preston, where you won one seat and (technically) won another because the sitting councillor was a defectee))

Anonymous said...

Only 1% up for the Tories...MUST DO BETTER. Labour are poised for a disaster in Scotland, but one things for sure- thi is the most extrodinary election I have EVER seen! Right across the board.

Anonymous said...

BNP usually take votes off the Conservatives - no way. The majority of BNP councillors were from Labour Areas.

javelin said...

A good question is can Gordon rebuild the local party infra-structure in the South and Midlands. The more he tries to appeal to them the more he will lose the local Scottish vote.

Murdoch is pro-Brown because of the ITN shares issue. Murdoch is primarily a businessman and secondly a free-marketeer.

Anonymous said...

BNP were 5th in North Wales regional, UKIP were 5th in nearly all constituencies

Richard Havers said...

The BBC have been quick to complain about the election shambles yet on their web site they had, for about an hour this morning, the list results for the South of Scotland showing that the SNP have taken all seven seats. This has since been taken down but they are still showing it as a fact in their overall seats table. When I saw it I thought this has to be completely wrong - thank goodness it looks like it isn'y true!

Anonymous said...

Is there any news about the performance of sitting BNP Councillors?

Anonymous said...

It seems the Tories have managed to increase their share of the vote nationally by not quite 1%, to just over 40%. However the modest gains the party have made are mostly in the south: like Labour in Wales, where they used to have huge majorities in mining constituencies that did no good for that party nationally.

If just over 40% is the best the Cameron Conservative Party can manage nationally, given all the masive problems within the Labour Party and government right now and the extreme unpopularity of Tony Blair, then whatever encouraging words emerge from Tory spokespeople, the unvarnished fact is that the Tories are a long way away indeed from forming a government at the next GE.

Indeed, I think the evidence is mounting that Windmill Dave is a negative asset in N England and Scotland, and that's where victorties are needed, not piling up more and more votes in the already-Tory south.

As I suggested recently, it does look as if we would do about as well if we traded in Dave as leader for a bladder on a stick.

[2br02b]

Fitaloon said...

In Scotland Human rights lawyers will no doubt be rubbing their hands with glee this morning with the thought of how much money they can make from this.
Rumours will soon be going round that Cherie Blair has arrived in Scotland to see if she can get her snout into the trough as Tony has given up his day job.

Anonymous said...

Labour lowest voteshare in Wales since 1918

Anonymous said...

Final Wales standings with South West Wales West and South West Wales Central list results look like being:

Labour: 26 seats (lose 4)
Independent Labour: 1 seat (gain 1)
Plaid Cymru: 13 or 14 seats - Tories look like they might be outpolling them in South West Wales West which would allow them to capture their seat there (gain 1, or possibly gain 2)
Conservative: 11, 12, or 13 seats (gain 0, 1 or 2): Depending on winning more votes on list vs. PC in SWWW. Gain of Cardiff North might result in loss of list seat in SWWC to Lib Dems
Lib Dems: 6 or 7 seats (no change/gain 1)

So best case
L: 26
I: 1
C: 13
PC: 13
LD: 6

A Con/PC/LD coalition would have a majority. Not sure who would be First Minister if Tories and Plaid both end up with 13 seats (though I suspect Tories will fall short, giving Plaid the prize).

Anonymous said...

On collecting my ballot papers at the polling station last night in E Lothian I remarked to the official that you needed a GCSE to understand how to use them.

I am now wondering who the estimated 100,000 disenfranchised electors are and how it can be that nobody saw this coming.

(A while ago a sweet posh lady gave me a leaflet for local Conservative candidate, Ludovic Broun-Lindsay..Ampleforth, Cirencester, etc,etc. Sure enough, there he was outside the polling station with a nice welcoming smile, looking like a nice chap, unlike his election picture which made him look ten years older than in real life, and a heavy drinker.)

Anonymous said...

So best case
L: 26
I: 1
C: 13
PC: 13
LD: 6


Best case for whom?

Anonymous said...

Forgot to say: Shock result. English Democrats got nowhere in Monmouthshire!!!

no longer anonymous said...

Tories have done well but to what extent has their success been concentrated in their already safe areas, especially regarding % of vote?

Anonymous said...

Plaid Cymru are not 3 seats down!!! they're two constituencies up!!!

Past the poll seats:

Labour: 24 (-6 since 2003))
Plaid: 8 (+2)
Tory: 5 (+4)
Lib Dem: 3 (=)
Ind; 1 (-1)

Anonymous said...

Plaid: 8 (+2)


Sorry, that's 7 (+2)

Anonymous said...

Does Andrew Mackinlay want an election for the leadership of the Labour Party and if so, who is he going to vote for?

Anonymous said...

I think there's something wrong with the BBC election site. You see, I was under the impression that a rising tide of English nationalism and the demand for more politicians in an English Parliament was sweeping the country. However, I can't find on the BBC site information about how many hundreds of councillors the English Democrats have received and how many councils they have won control of. Can someone point me in the right direction?

My question for Mackinlay on 18DS - how did he feel knowing that the FCO tried to smear his reputation during the Craig Murray investigation by accusing him in internal documents of frequenting lap-dancing clubs, and action did he take against the FCO or what complaints did he make to Jack Straw about this.

Those of you who've read Craig Murray's excellent book will know what I'm on about.

Anonymous said...

No - Tories didn't gain a seat in Liverpool and are a long way off doing so - regularly polling a couple of hundred in each ward, but no sign this is improving. They did put up a full slate though, no doubt adding to Cameron's 41% nationally

javelin said...

BBC News 24 - "SNP now extremely confident of winning by a few seats" - Herald Political Correspondent

javelin said...

BBC News 24 - Tony Blair, opended with the line "In Wales we are going to retain control" (didn't mention Scotland) ... "In Scotland we are neck and neck with SNP. Lib Dems dreadful set of results. Tories not what they expected". "We have done better than people expected."

javelin said...

BBC News 24 - Hague. "A Quarter of all gains in the North."

"No one can think that going down the the lowest number of councellors in modern electoral history is a spring board [ref:Blair] to the next election."

Hague seems very upbeat.

javelin said...

News 24 - Cameron [quoted by news reader] "Conservatives control more councils in the N.W that Labour."

The BBC reporters sound more downbeat that the New Labour bods. Ha, ha.

Anthony said...

Lab become largest party in Luton, with 2 wards to declare. Could move NOC to Lab.

javelin said...

SNP draw level with Lab - as more results come in from outlying areas.

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT RESULTS
Party Const Regn +/- Tot
After 84 of 129 seats declared
SNP 18 14 +15 32
LAB 32 0 -8 32
LD 9 3 0 12
CON 4 3 0 7
Others 0 1 -7 1

chatterbox said...

The loser in Scotland last night was democracy, 8 years of Labour and their wee Libdem numpties certainly delivered the type of voting shambles usually seen in a Socialist Banana Republic not a Western democracy!!!!!!!!
They could not organise a p*ss up in a brewery which considering its is Scotland is would have to take some planning!!!!!!!

Bring back Flookie said...

looks like Taunton will be a Con loss to the Lib Dems

DanG said...

Anonymous said...

On collecting my ballot papers at the polling station last night in E Lothian I remarked to the official that you needed a GCSE to understand how to use them.

I am now wondering who the estimated 100,000 disenfranchised electors are and how it can be that nobody saw this coming.

May 04, 2007 11:19 AM

Er, what's the problem here? Do we really want dumb, uneducated people deciding who's going to govern us?

Richard Havers said...

With three of the eight regional list votes declared it's perhaps surprising that the Labour vote has actually increased from 262,313 to 271,276. The share is marginally down from 35.9% to 35.3. Given that this includes Glasgow and Central Scotland perhaps this is not too surprising. The SNP vote has massively increased from 142,539 to 222,095 a jump in share from 19.5% to 28.9%. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives show little change. The big losers are the SSP, a drop close to 60,000 votes. Solidarity (Sheridaninanity) picked up close to 17,000 of these but the rest have almost all gone to the SNP. The Greens have lost close to 15,000 so far, two percentage points on the share.

The implication from the Greens leader is they've been disproportionably hurt by the spoiled papers.

Danvers said...

The problem with some of the analysis of whether a party has "lost" or "won" a council to/from NOC is that the BBC stats do not take into account what was actually happening on the ground, i.e. if the biggest party was effectively in control with support of sympathetic independents. For example, until today Waverley was NOC, but contained 27 Libs, 26 Con and 4 Ind. So who ran Waverley? If it was the Libs, who are almost wiped out there, it should show up as a Con gain from Lib not from NOC...

However, this is just for us politics junkies, but maybe it affects perception - discuss.

Anonymous said...

Dang...lol!

Yes, you have a good point. In fact, I just think that nice, middle class people should vote, except that they get drawn in by this political correctness nonsense, and your actual neds and schemies can see through all the shite.

aw.. let's stick with votes for everybody after all.

Anonymous said...

Con to loose Taunton Deane, with one ward to declare:

he Labour Party 1 -4

The Conservative Party 22 -6

Liberal Democrat 26 +11

Independent 4 +2

Andy D said...

Wow, what happened in Taunton?

Anonymous said...

MM, Browne will indeed be grinning but you must remember that we (the Cons) only won last time on a single issue (road layout near the County Cricket ground) so the reult is no more than expected that and tactical voting (putting up inds) never helps.

Hopefully the local Con Association will learn from this, pull together and help Flook's replacement (Formosa), other wise come the next general election Browne will have a bigger grin.

Anonymous said...

I'm really disappointed that Norfolk Blogger didn't win his seat.

If he had, it would have meant that he would have had less time to post dumb comments on your blog, Iain!

Matt said...

Didn't you say a good result was the tories winning more than 400 and labour losing more than 200 ?

Tories +476 and Labour -225 with 126 councils still to declare.

Keep deluding yourself Labour.

Anonymous said...

Taunton update: Cons loss to NOC, so depends on the Inds!
The Labour Party 1 -4

The Conservative Party 25 -6

Liberal Democrat 26 +11

Independent 4 +2

Matt said...

Blair is 100% right, this election is a springboard for Labour.

And the most common use for a springboard is taking a dive.

Tony said...

Conservatives increase majority in WELLINGBOROUGH

The new composition of the council chamber is:

Conservative - 30 (+3)
Labour - 4 (-4)
Independent - 2 (+1)

On a personal note, I have been elected as a Councillor for the first time.

Anonymous said...

Latest English results according to the BBC

LOCAL COUNCIL RESULTS
Councillors Councils
Party +/- Total +/- Total
After 220 of 312 councils.
CON 555 3077 21 106
LAB -272 1364 -7 31
LD -205 1280 -1 17
OTH -77 669 0 4
NOC - - -13 62

Andy D said...

Looks like they might break 600 gains in England....

Anonymous said...

David Davis now LIVE on News 24

John Hayward, The Difference said...

Labour have been completely wiped off Tonbridge & Malling Council!

Anonymous said...

Hmm..DD is talking a good game here.

John Hayward, The Difference said...

Labour have been completely wiped off Tonbridge & Malling Council!

DanG said...

Anonymous said...

Dang...lol!

Yes, you have a good point. In fact, I just think that nice, middle class people should vote, except that they get drawn in by this political correctness nonsense, and your actual neds and schemies can see through all the shite.

aw.. let's stick with votes for everybody after all.

May 04, 2007 1:26 PM

You're absolutely spot on. Let's stick with it.

Anonymous said...

Dont think you have got Con gain South Cambridgeshire (C+3, LD-1, Ind -2)

TomTom said...

Don't get too excited about Bradford and Leeds.....could be a vote against incumbents or an ethnic split because ethnic wards had the highest turnout

Fitaloon said...

More stories of incompetence appearing all over the place. A lady was on BBC Radio Scotland news at lunchtime as I was driving home saying at her Polling Station the plastic voting boxes had failed/broken and the returning officer was stacking the papers up on the floor next to him. So much for secrecy/security/honesty etc etc etc. Apparently she complained and the officer was rude to her. She is chasing the matter up with Chief Returning Officer.

zeno said...

On the subject of Crewe & Nantwich (Con: 28, all others: 28) Iain's right to say that our BBC friends haven't got it. The independents on the council are in the old-fashioned "ratepayer" (=independent Tory) mold. The Tories effectively now control C&N.

Nick Robinson, showing his usual grasp of the facts, said last night that the Tories need outright control in C&N because it used to be a Tory seat. Not so: since the two constituencies were amalgamated, the MP has been the formidable Gwyneth Dunwoody - I don't think anyone who called her a Tory would get away alive!

Realpolitik said...

Disappointing result in Leeds. Labour seem to have gained three seats at the expense of Conservatives and Lib Dems.

Local news is reporting that Lib Dems may challenge the Labour win in Gipton, the ward at the centre of the Sunday Times fraud allegations.

Anonymous said...

Idiot! The tories have always had seats in stoke, and its no change for them there. Interestingly, the BNP are now the second party in Stoke, can't the tories raise their game?

Curly said...

No change in South Tyneside, Labour gain two seats but lose one to Independents. Conservatives still stuck on three seats, but more worrying is the strength of the BNP vote at almost twice as much as the Conservatives!

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

Am I the only one to worry about the tone of the BBC coverage?

Cons +655

BBC keeps repeating that no party can claim a win.

Next they'll be saying that the results are "disastrous" for the Torries and Cameroon should resign.

Uh, just like they did to IDS 4 years ago when he won 550.

Andy D said...

Really not a good day for the Lib Dums..and the BBC's line is looking more and more biased...

javelin said...

Remember the BBC said yesterday that 600+ seats would be an excellent result for the Torys. Let's hope they stick to their guns and say this is an excellent result for Cameron.

javelin said...

The BBC needs to use words like "genuine revival", "growing belief", "the Conservatives are now the natural choice" - because they said is the Tory's erached this level then this is what is means. (see below)


By Nick Assinder

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6607191.stm

"David Cameron's Tories are enjoying what appears to be a genuine revival, with rising poll showings and the growing belief amongst his MPs they really can win the next general election.

He needs to underpin that by seizing the advantage offered by Mr Blair's unpopularity and show the Conservatives are now the natural choice for disillusioned or dissatisfied voters.

He needs to win something in the region of 500 to 600 seats in the polls."

Anonymous said...

Aren't you a bit tired Iain?

xerxes said...

Labour minority administration destroyed in Brighton, lost ten seats including Council Leader, Deputy Leader and former Leader. Labour now only one seat in front of the Greens, who double their presence from 6 to 12. LibDems have 2 seats, down one from 03.

Conservatives on 26, still not majority (54 councillors), but Cameron's visit yesterday made the difference.

Big issues were school admissions, after the controversial lottery system was introduced. Also, Greens took significant left, anti-war and gay vote in Central Brighton, which made LibDems pointless.

Last major Labour unitary in the South East annihilated. Neighbouring Nick Soames currently laughing his well-upholstered ass off.